Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
NUGT is currently up another 4% today and over 336.00% for the year. Don't you wish we had more investment options with TSP? I do.......................
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Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk
- Thread starter Intrepid_Timer
- Start date
love-to-bike
Member
NUGT gives me shivers....
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Just set it and forget it till August, then jump into DUST for about 6 months and you'll be good to go. Easy peasy.............
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
NUGT now up 585% for the year. If you were gonna buy and hold something, that would have been the one to do it....................
userque
Well-known member
I'd be careful holding a 3x etf for months. (Decay)
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Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Why? If it's going up, who cares about "decay"? I've been holding TNA for a month now, no decay as far as I can tell.....up is up.
userque
Well-known member
You're right, "up is up."
Some 3x'ers are better than others, decay wise. I think TNA and TZA don't slam you like those gold or VIX leveraged funds, but there is still decay...
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/understanding-etf-decay-part/597928
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/understanding-etf-decay-part/597928
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
I don't think decay factor is a real issue with ETFs, but that's just my opinion. I think it is more so with options, you definitely don't want to hold those suckers too long. Bottom line is that the Russell 2000 is up 7.40% YTD while TNA is up 16.4%. It "should" be up 22.20% right? Who cares, you still made more than just sitting in a 1X fund all year...............
If you bought NUGT at the end of last year, you'd be up over 500%. Again, who cares if it "should" be up 800%............don't sweat the small stuff.
The only thing warning people about not holding 3X ETFs for long periods does is make them exit too soon. The VIX ETFs are a totally different matter as backwardation and contango play big rolls with those, so many times you'll see the VIX up one day while UVXY and/or TVIX will be down. Still, it has nothing to do with how long you held the ETF. You could have bought one day before or 20 days before, you still would have gotten screwed that one day...............
If you bought NUGT at the end of last year, you'd be up over 500%. Again, who cares if it "should" be up 800%............don't sweat the small stuff.
The only thing warning people about not holding 3X ETFs for long periods does is make them exit too soon. The VIX ETFs are a totally different matter as backwardation and contango play big rolls with those, so many times you'll see the VIX up one day while UVXY and/or TVIX will be down. Still, it has nothing to do with how long you held the ETF. You could have bought one day before or 20 days before, you still would have gotten screwed that one day...............
userque
Well-known member
Right...to each; his/her own.
Hindsight is always 20/20.
I prefer to trade.
"Friends don't let friends buy and hold."
This shows the extreme example if you bought the 3X long gold (NUGT) and the 3X short gold (DUST) ETFs and held them long term.
Old_School
Member
Yikes!
The_General
Member
This shows the extreme example if you bought the 3X long gold (NUGT) and the 3X short gold (DUST) ETFs and held them long term.
But what will those charts look like in a few more months? If DUST and/or NUGT go back up after declining so much, and are sold at that point, then there is no harm.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
"Friends don't let friends buy and hold", except when it is prudent.................
BTW, thanks for stopping by trying to teach me about "decay", "slippage" or whatever else you wanna call it. I've been doing this a long time and I guess I'm one of the few that understands it, like you so eloquently put it in your original message that you edited. I would like to warn you to not believe everything you read on "The Motley Fool" also. If they were any good at trading, they wouldn't have to "teach" or write a newsletter.
I've been a consistent winner and have also consistently beaten the S&P 500, despite the limitations of TSP. I guess Tom forgot to mention that to you...........
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
There were signs that NUGT had bottomed out in Nov/Dec. It didn't actually bottom till early Jan, but if one had bought in Nov/Dec, they'd be quite happy right now. That's not going to be depicted by your 5-6 year chart.
This shows the extreme example if you bought the 3X long gold (NUGT) and the 3X short gold (DUST) ETFs and held them long term.
userque
Well-known member
"Friends don't let friends buy and hold", except when it is prudent.................
BTW, thanks for stopping by trying to teach me about "decay", "slippage" or whatever else you wanna call it. I've been doing this a long time and I guess I'm one of the few that understands it, like you so eloquently put it in your original message that you edited. I would like to warn you to not believe everything you read on "The Motley Fool" also. If they were any good at trading, they wouldn't have to "teach" or write a newsletter.
Thanks.
I get it.
You're the best trader ever.
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
I don't "play" to be 2nd best................nice signature, advertising use to be against the rules here............
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