Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

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Howdy. I just wanted to provide a quick review of last year for the general public.

I obviously stunk up the place last year when it comes to TSP, but there was a reason for that (start shacking heads now). As subscribers of my service know, my system uses a lot of currencies and commodities in it's equation to determine buy and sell signals for equities. Well, on Nov 30th of 2015, the IMF stated that they were adding the Chinese Yuan to its basket of reserve currencies and this was the first time they had made such a move since adding the EURO in 1999. This threw my timing system for a loop and told everyone at the time it could throw my system off and it would take some time to collect the necessary data in order to basically re-do my own weightings and such. This killed us in Dec of 2015 and early in 2016 as my TSP return got to as low as 15.83% by mid-Feb. :( By April, I had collected enough data to make a reasonable assertion as to what my weightings should be and we went on a tear until Oct, then hit a snag. I made some adjustments in Nov as well as added a couple of new proprietary timing patterns along the way and I believe now that I have a full year's worth of data that we'll get back on track this year. I've tracked some back up currencies just in case the EURO ever falters (which I thought would be the first thing to happen to the IMF's basket of reserve currencies), but the Yuan was never even on my radar.

So anyway, I only made 1.66% last year with TSP (PIP was 1.74%) and it was the worst year ever for my timing system because of the previously mentioned issue. It was still nice to be able to come back from almost 16% down at one point and to still make a positive return in one's worst year of trading isn't something most can say. It is what it is I guess.

Most of you probably don't know that besides TSP, my service also provides signals for trading ETF's outside of TSP and my system itself always trades UPRO for buy signals and TLT for sell signals (with an occasional trade in SPXU when my bond system isn't recommending bonds at the time). I've always recommended these pairings as they most closely mimic trading the C fund and the F fund with TSP, except that they are leveraged funds. For the simple reason that one isn't short anything the majority of time, I consider this my most conservative approach because let's face it, betting against the markets isn't as easy as betting with them because the majority of people want one thing, for the markets to go up. Most of the time, they do. The other advantage of trading leveraged ETFs (3X) is that one can use all the buy and sell signals given by my timing system and not just the ones we use for TSP because of the 2 IFT trading limits.

My UPRO, TLT and occasional SPXU trades were able to return 21.50% last year despite the issues my system had to overcome. This still easily beat the return of the S&P 500 (9.54%). UPRO itself did return 30.60%, but I don't know many people who want to hold a 3X ETF all year either.

Just for reference, here is what my UPRO/TLT trades have returned over the last 5 years. These are all documented and verifiable by subscribers to my service:

2012: 117.64%

2013: 68.02%

2014: 38.36%

2015: 53.02%

2016: 21.50%

A five year compounded return of 840.66% isn't too bad. Feel free to compare that to the S&P 500 if you like.

Most of you probably don't trade outside of TSP, but if you are interested, you might want to give my service a shot. Past returns aren't necessarily indicative of future ones, but like I said, I consider this a conservative approach to using 3X ETFs outside of TSP and also very consistent.

Happy and Prosperous New Year to all.......................and to all, a good night..........

Okay, it wasn't that quick....................
 
sgtbriangreen said:
While you're there, search for a water pump gasket for a 1997 Toyota Tacoma 2.7.
Click to expand...

Sure, I have to pick up pick up brake lines and fuel lines for my 2003 Chevy Tracker also as I had a brake line rupture on me the other day. Not fun.................gave my 1989 Toyota 4Runner to my fiancee's ex a couple months ago and got the Tracker. Nice guy huh? :laugh:
 
From Jan 4th:

"I obviously stunk up the place last year when it comes to TSP, but there was a reason for that (start shacking heads now). As subscribers of my service know, my system uses a lot of currencies and commodities in it's equation to determine buy and sell signals for equities. Well, on Nov 30th of 2015, the IMF stated that they were adding the Chinese Yuan to its basket of reserve currencies and this was the first time they had made such a move since adding the EURO in 1999. This threw my timing system for a loop and told everyone at the time it could throw my system off and it would take some time to collect the necessary data in order to basically re-do my own weightings and such. This killed us in Dec of 2015 and early in 2016 as my TSP return got to as low as 15.83% by mid-Feb. :( By April, I had collected enough data to make a reasonable assertion as to what my weightings should be and we went on a tear until Oct, then hit a snag. I made some adjustments in Nov as well as added a couple of new proprietary timing patterns along the way and I believe now that I have a full year's worth of data that we'll get back on track this year. I've tracked some back up currencies just in case the EURO ever falters (which I thought would be the first thing to happen to the IMF's basket of reserve currencies), but the Yuan was never even on my radar. "

Just a quick update. As of Mar 31st, my TSP return is 7.48% and that beats buying and holding all the TSP funds. Not an easy feat with the I fund up 7.35% and we almost never use the I fund because one never knows when TSP will throw a "fair valuation" at us. For buy and holders it doesn't matter, for traders it could. My system has also been in equities (S fund) for only 23 of 62 trading days. This greatly reduces one's risk of being in the C, S or I funds during one of those Big Black Swan events. One could say that happened on Mar 21st when the S fund lost 2.24% in one day and my system was sitting in bonds (F fund).

As far as returns for 3X ETFs outside of TSP, my conservative strategy is up 21.89% for the year and the more aggressive pairings that I give examples of and can be used with my system have returned the following YTD:

FAS/FAZ: 41.37%

ERX/ERY: 64.40%

TNA/TZA: 40.97%

I also give examples of a couple of mutual fund pairings that one can use and these trade just like our TSP funds as you get end of day prices, but you have till 3pm ET to put your order in and these are 2X funds:

UAPIX/UCPIX (aggressive): 26.66%

ULPIX/GVPIX (conservative): 19.70%

There are many other funds one could use, but these are just examples that I track every day. Having a year's worth of data with the Yuan in my system now has made a world of difference and it is obviously back on track. Good luck all! Onward and upward......................
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
From Jan 4th:

"I obviously stunk up the place last year when it comes to TSP, but there was a reason for that (start shacking heads now). As subscribers of my service know, my system uses a lot of currencies and commodities in it's equation to determine buy and sell signals for equities. Well, on Nov 30th of 2015, the IMF stated that they were adding the Chinese Yuan to its basket of reserve currencies and this was the first time they had made such a move since adding the EURO in 1999. This threw my timing system for a loop and told everyone at the time it could throw my system off and it would take some time to collect the necessary data in order to basically re-do my own weightings and such. This killed us in Dec of 2015 and early in 2016 as my TSP return got to as low as 15.83% by mid-Feb. :( By April, I had collected enough data to make a reasonable assertion as to what my weightings should be and we went on a tear until Oct, then hit a snag. I made some adjustments in Nov as well as added a couple of new proprietary timing patterns along the way and I believe now that I have a full year's worth of data that we'll get back on track this year. I've tracked some back up currencies just in case the EURO ever falters (which I thought would be the first thing to happen to the IMF's basket of reserve currencies), but the Yuan was never even on my radar. "
Click to expand...
So what was your TSP return for 2016?
 
6-month update:

My TSP return: 11.47%

My Trades VERSUS Buy and holding

ETFS

UPRO/TLT/SPXU: 37.89% YTD (Buy and hold UPRO: 27.04%)

FAS/FAZ: 29.54% YTD (Buy and hold FAS: 21.10%)

ERX/ERY: 24.98% YTD (Buy and hold ERX: -37.70%)

TNA/TZA: 51.84% YTD (Buy and hold TNA: 10.79%)


MUTUAL FUNDS

UAPIX/UCPIX: 33.54% YTD (Buy and hold UAPIX: 7.81%)

ULPIX/GVPIX: 28.64% YTD (Buy and hold ULPIX: 16.91%)
 
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