Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

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As a contrarian I'm so glad the hedge funds have been overly negative and missed out on the 2012 stock rally - now they'll have to run like the wind to play catch up to the indexes - I'm staying long. "Since 1900, 63% of all election year annual highs have come in November and December, since 1975 it's 67%." Thanks for the information. Those stats are good enough to keep me interested.
 
Birchtree said:
As a contrarian I'm so glad the hedge funds have been overly negative and missed out on the 2012 stock rally - now they'll have to run like the wind to play catch up to the indexes - I'm staying long. "Since 1900, 63% of all election year annual highs have come in November and December, since 1975 it's 67%." Thanks for the information. Those stats are good enough to keep me interested.
Click to expand...

That also means that about 1/3 of the time, the markets don't hit yearly highs in Nov or Dec. In 2004 they did, but in 2000 and 2008 they didn't. Maybe the odds are even higher on your side because of that. But then again, since the markets haven't made new highs in Nov or Dec in 2 of 3 election years this century, maybe they aren't...............;) I think any data pre-1995 is pretty much worthless. That was when internet trading started hitting the big time.
 
Maybe this is why the Fed is trying to prop up the markets:

"The United States Treasury Department turned down a plan from General Motors(NYSE:GM[FONT=Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]) to buy back 200 million shares of its company. The Treasury has a 26.5 percent stake in GM, but share prices are too low for the Treasury to act. GM shares would need to hit $53 before the Treasury broke even, but the government is likely to sell at a loss."[/FONT]

[FONT=Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]With GM sitting at about $25, it's gonna take a lot of propping up to break even..............."Government Motors" indeed................[/FONT]
 
FireWeatherMet said:
Nutro...goes for about 38-45 bucks for a 30 lb bag (used to be 35 lbs a few months ago)
I stay away from the IAMS, Chuckwagon and other carcinogenic crap thats 25 bucks for a 40lb bag but kills your dog before their time.
Click to expand...

You sound like a good Doggie Daddy. :)

Appears to be a good product, but it doesn't look like it is a publicly traded company.
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
Millions of Americans Have Hepatitis C
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That's nice to know I/T. I laugh when I think how many years it took for us to pester Customs into getting us Hep B shots even though everyone had to daily dig through undesirable's baggage and handbags. Years before that when I was in the BOP and doing occasional light gladiator action with even nastier vermin we were at least very cognizant of AIDS and the implications of being bled on, and all the other bodily fluid implications. I'm damned glad I got myself out of there just as the drug resistant TB started making it's rounds. Strange sometimes how these organizations can be both far ahead and far behind the curve when it comes to safety items. While they were making us watch videos ( produced by and for NY State Corrections) on AIDS we were giving the convicts double edged razor blades to shave with and they were all over the place. Imagine that, in the age of plastic razors (early 80's) giving felons deadly weapons with no accountability whatsoever. I bet a couple of you think I'm fulla bulla on that one . I find it hard to believe myself. Good thing it was in a Youth Corrections Act Prison, FCI Englewood where it was all young guys under 30. We called it Gladiator School and it lived up to it's name very well.
I learned a long time ago that the responsibility for this disease business started with the individual as the agencies just pretty much did the least they were forced to do to cover their back sides. I will give the agencies more credit today though. They do seem to be much more proactive about these things than 20, 30 years ago although a lot of the credit goes to AFGE / NTEU and perhaps other employee unions for shoving them along. I do find that article itself a bit alarmist though, something akin to what you see on "Natural News" ect.. sometimes. Just like Diabetes and such when you think about the percentage of the population who are / were hard drugies and such I bet it skews those percentages a lot. It's definitely a good read and food for thought though just like HIV testing for those of us who worked around the drug culture as well. Personally I would rather worry about my money than my blood stream though.....................Play safe out there kiddies:).
 
driz said:
That's nice to know I/T. I laugh when I think how many years it took for us to pester Customs into getting us Hep B shots even though everyone had to daily dig through undesirable's baggage and handbags. Years before that when I was in the BOP and doing occasional light gladiator action with even nastier vermin we were at least very cognizant of AIDS and the implications of being bled on, and all the other bodily fluid implications. I'm damned glad I got myself out of there just as the drug resistant TB started making it's rounds. Strange sometimes how these organizations can be both far ahead and far behind the curve when it comes to safety items. While they were making us watch videos ( produced by and for NY State Corrections) on AIDS we were giving the convicts double edged razor blades to shave with and they were all over the place. Imagine that, in the age of plastic razors (early 80's) giving felons deadly weapons with no accountability whatsoever. I bet a couple of you think I'm fulla bulla on that one . I find it hard to believe myself. Good thing it was in a Youth Corrections Act Prison, FCI Englewood where it was all young guys under 30. We called it Gladiator School and it lived up to it's name very well.
I learned a long time ago that the responsibility for this disease business started with the individual as the agencies just pretty much did the least they were forced to do to cover their back sides. I will give the agencies more credit today though. They do seem to be much more proactive about these things than 20, 30 years ago although a lot of the credit goes to AFGE / NTEU and perhaps other employee unions for shoving them along. I do find that article itself a bit alarmist though, something akin to what you see on "Natural News" ect.. sometimes. Just like Diabetes and such when you think about the percentage of the population who are / were hard drugies and such I bet it skews those percentages a lot. It's definitely a good read and food for thought though just like HIV testing for those of us who worked around the drug culture as well. Personally I would rather worry about my money than my blood stream though.....................Play safe out there kiddies:).
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was just mainly trying to bring this to the attention of those that may have had transfusions back before they started testing for HCV. Thanks for the input, very interesting!
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
Yeah, I was just mainly trying to bring this to the attention of those that may have had transfusions back before they started testing for HCV. Thanks for the input, very interesting!
Click to expand...

A fellow vet I know also mentioned the military passing hepatitis around when inducting people at induction centers. Something about using those vaccine guns when they were doing large numbers of vaccinations. Of course I just know:rolleyes: the couple guys in front of me were pure as the driven snow..................while I whistle past the graveyard:blink:. At least I got lucky and was in and out before they started with those highly questionable anthrax vaccines during and after the Gulf War.
 
driz said:
A fellow vet I know also mentioned the military passing hepatitis around when inducting people at induction centers. Something about using those vaccine guns when they were doing large numbers of vaccinations. Of course I just know:rolleyes: the couple guys in front of me were pure as the driven snow..................while I whistle past the graveyard:blink:. At least I got lucky and was in and out before they started with those highly questionable anthrax vaccines during and after the Gulf War.
Click to expand...

I worked where those vaccines were developed when I was in the military, but I refused the anthrax vaccines (got several others though), which meant I couldn't work in the hot suites. They put me in the clinical lab after that. Try taking blood from a "MRV" (medical research volunteer) when he has malaria and shacking uncontrollably. :blink:

They told us those vaccines guns in basic used air to force the vaccines into the skin instead of injections, but I don't know how accurate their information was...............
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
End of August update:

My TSP returns (these are verified by a 3rd party and I believe they are based on number of trading days, not calender days.):

View attachment 20176

S fund returns:

View attachment 20177

If one were using all the signals produced by my timing system in a self-directed IRA using funds similar to our S and F funds (or if we had more IFTs), their return YTD would be 28.94%.

My YTD returns using 3X ETF long/short funds and my Timing system's signals as of my last sell in August are:

TNA/TZA: 101.92%

FAS/FAZ: 95.92%

These are all updated and verified daily in my commentaries.
Click to expand...

End of Sept update:

My TSP YTD return: 13.73%

S fund YTD: 15.23%

If one were using all the signals produced by my timing system in a self-directed IRA using funds similar to our S and F funds (or if we had more IFTs), their return YTD would be 34.65%.

My YTD returns (based on closing prices) using 3X ETF long/short funds and my Timing system's signals as of my last sell in Sept are:

TNA/TZA: 126.09%

FAS/FAZ: 120.40%

These are all updated and verified daily in my commentaries.
 
I saw last night that the great hedge fund manager Paul Paulson is down 27% this year..............:blink: This could be why so many keep predicting the markets to fall off of a cliff, it's the only way some can make money and that fear is probably what is keeping their clients hanging around.
 
This quote seems fitting for my previous post. If only we knew when the right time was...................

“There is a time to take counsel of your fears, and there is a time to never listen to any fear.”

― George S. Patton


 
Speaking of fear, a couple of people don't think I contribute anything to the regular message board anymore (my premium area keeps me pretty busy), so I thought I would periodically post one of my weekly charts from my Monday commentaries. This is chart of the weekly VIX that we have been watching for awhile now. It just hit a key level this morning and reversed. Is it going to continue up to the 40 level or pull back?

12-2-2012 9-52-34 AM.jpg
 
Happy and Prosperous New Year everyone! My end of year report has been posted if you are interested in seeing what a good market timing system can do, especially outside the limits of TSP. These returns are all DOCUMENTED on a daily basis...............

TSP Talk - Intrepid Timer's Investment Strategies

“America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.”

― Abraham Lincoln
 
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