Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

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Intrepid_Timer said:
Happy and Prosperous New Year everyone! My end of year report has been posted if you are interested in seeing what a good market timing system can do, especially outside the limits of TSP. These returns are all DOCUMENTED on a daily basis...............

TSP Talk - Intrepid Timer's Investment Strategies

“America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.”

― Abraham Lincoln
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Congratulations on another successful year, and thank you for posting the link, I enjoyed reading about the behind the scenes explanations of how the year went. It's funny how a system's rules can test someone's intestinal fortitude, you appear to have done a great job of sticking to your guns.
 
JTH said:
Congratulations on another successful year, and thank you for posting the link, I enjoyed reading about the behind the scenes explanations of how the year went. It's funny how a system's rules can test someone's intestinal fortitude, you appear to have done a great job of sticking to your guns.
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Thanks! The first year was the most difficult because you want to do well for others, so you definitely start questioning your system at times. It's gotten easier as most now realize we won't make money on every trade, but in the end we'll be fine if we stick with it.
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
Gotcha! Good luck!! I'm expecting a break out year with TSP using my system. My personal goal this year is 30-40% with TSP and 200% with TNA/TZA. ;)
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Hi! I just got into managing my modest TSP balance since working for the feds. I have a Roth IRA with John Hancock that I want to move away from them and learn to manage myself. Definitely wish to learn more about ETFs and position my portfolio in this area and perhaps one day, FOREX.

In your honest opinion, which brokerage competitors are better to use to conduct trades, easy to use, and overall perform well? I'm using this and TradeKing and others seem to be fairly cheap compared to the big boys (Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, etc). Compare Online Brokers at StockBrokers.com
 
judochop said:
Hi! I just got into managing my modest TSP balance since working for the feds. I have a Roth IRA with John Hancock that I want to move away from them and learn to manage myself. Definitely wish to learn more about ETFs and position my portfolio in this area and perhaps one day, FOREX.

In your honest opinion, which brokerage competitors are better to use to conduct trades, easy to use, and overall perform well? I'm using this and TradeKing and others seem to be fairly cheap compared to the big boys (Fidelity, Schwab, TD Ameritrade, etc). Compare Online Brokers at StockBrokers.com
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I have personal experience with Scottrade, Sharebuilder, Fidelity and USAA. They all are about the same, but also different trading platforms. The only real way to determine which one someone likes is to check them out. Unfortunately, not all have a offer a tutorial or something of the sort.
 
Is it advisable to "Buy" at a point in time after you have issued a Buy signal? I was late joining your system and after the pounding i took in 2008 I am terrified to jump into stocks but I believe your system works. I always seem to miss the buy in date and then I am too afraid to jump in. By the way I am 51 and work for USPS. This makes me even more cautious and uncertain. I appreciate any advise you may have to offer.
 
jamesran said:
Is it advisable to "Buy" at a point in time after you have issued a Buy signal? I was late joining your system and after the pounding i took in 2008 I am terrified to jump into stocks but I believe your system works. I always seem to miss the buy in date and then I am too afraid to jump in. By the way I am 51 and work for USPS. This makes me even more cautious and uncertain. I appreciate any advise you may have to offer.
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This is actually my "public" thread, which anyone can see. I'll be happy to answer your question over in my premium "TSP" thread:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/intrepid-timer/9104-$-intrepid-timers-tsp-strategies.html#post388814

Or in my ETF thread:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/intrepid-timer/9197-$-intrepid-timers-etf-strategies.html#post388868

:)
 
jamesran said:
Is it advisable to "Buy" at a point in time after you have issued a Buy signal? I was late joining your system and after the pounding i took in 2008 I am terrified to jump into stocks but I believe your system works. I always seem to miss the buy in date and then I am too afraid to jump in. By the way I am 51 and work for USPS. This makes me even more cautious and uncertain. I appreciate any advise you may have to offer.
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Look at the Auto tracker. Look at your Tsptalk mates. Birchtree gained 18%. He stayed in the market the whole year. I even made 11% last year and I am as tentative as one can get, though I'm getting a thicker skin. I'm retired (age 60) and although it is not advisable by those at tsp.gov, I'm playing the market. It actually becomes exciting, playing the market. Personally I plan to make at least 20% this year because I am getting better at staying in the market, and I subscribe to one of the premium services. I also look at the Sentamental survey (it made 20% for 2012) and understand some of the nuances of the discussion of those logged into the forum. I suggest you follow (lurk if you like) the tracker, as well as all that is available at Tsptalk. There are a lot of semi pros and a few that are as good as any pros that work the market at the Tsptalk website. You'll learn too, how and what to look for as you work the market. As Birchtree says, it's a nice way to make some, or a lot of money; in your pajamas. The Tsp is overall a pretty good deal, I think. Mind you, I've lost my tail in 2011 but I learned a lot because of that, especially how to stay positive. Made 11% for 2012, while stayin in for weeks not even looking at the market, some weeks making some good moves, and in spite of making a few, maybe more than a few, wrong moves, I did pretty well. It isn't luck that gets people 20-25% gains for the year. It is knowledge and persistance. I plan to use my acquired knowledge and persistance this year to double my 2012 earnings. Good luck to you.
 
JimmyJoe said:
Look at the Auto tracker. Look at your Tsptalk mates. Birchtree gained 18%. He stayed in the market the whole year. I even made 11% last year and I am as tentative as one can get, though I'm getting a thicker skin. I'm retired (age 60) and although it is not advisable by those at tsp.gov, I'm playing the market. It actually becomes exciting, playing the market. Personally I plan to make at least 20% this year because I am getting better at staying in the market, and I subscribe to one of the premium services. I also look at the Sentamental survey (it made 20% for 2012) and understand some of the nuances of the discussion of those logged into the forum. I suggest you follow (lurk if you like) the tracker, as well as all that is available at Tsptalk. There are a lot of semi pros and a few that are as good as any pros that work the market at the Tsptalk website. You'll learn too, how and what to look for as you work the market. As Birchtree says, it's a nice way to make some, or a lot of money; in your pajamas. The Tsp is overall a pretty good deal, I think. Mind you, I've lost my tail in 2011 but I learned a lot because of that, especially how to stay positive. Made 11% for 2012, while stayin in for weeks not even looking at the market, some weeks making some good moves, and in spite of making a few, maybe more than a few, wrong moves, I did pretty well. It isn't luck that gets people 20-25% gains for the year. It is knowledge and persistance. I plan to use my acquired knowledge and persistance this year to double my 2012 earnings. Good luck to you.
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Careful now. Knowledge or no knowledge, its not difficult (notice I don't say easy) to make money during bull markets. It's pretty easy to lose money (and a lot in a hurry) during bear markets. Bear markets and shorter term corrections/downturns (whatever you want to call them) are personally the reason I subscribe to IT.

I'm a very logical-oriented person. And if I learned anything, its that trying to apply logic to the day to day market will not only make your head spin, but can put you right where the big boys want you.
 
Exactly, K0. If the indices go down 30% this year, birchtree will lose 30%. The only way to beat the market (short or long-term) is to be out of it when it's down. Easier said than done, but if someone just wants to do as well as the market, they can stay invested 100% of the time and enjoy the roller coaster. :)
 
k0nkuzh0n said:
Careful now. Knowledge or no knowledge, its not difficult (notice I don't say easy) to make money during bull markets. It's pretty easy to lose money (and a lot in a hurry) during bear markets. Bear markets and shorter term corrections/downturns (whatever you want to call them) are personally the reason I subscribe to IT.

I'm a very logical-oriented person. And if I learned anything, its that trying to apply logic to the day to day market will not only make your head spin, but can put you right where the big boys want you.[/QUOTE

As one who has lost in this market, not as much as he has gained, I thank you for your consideration. I will be careful during this bull market. I am stepping on the rocks that lie just above the surface of the turbulent waters flowing down stream. I will make it to the other side safely because after 15 years of following the trackers and messengers on this site, I've learned much. I also know that to make money in the market requires one's apt attention. One must pay full attention to the several advisors/messengers/bloggers on this site as if they were golden, then make one's personal, most logical, selection of the funds offered, of the 2 or 3 transfers per month available, so that we, or I, make 20% or more gains per year. I've seen others do it. Now it's time for me. I've had my head spun by the big boys. Now it's my turn to spin some heads. I'm not on the tracker yet but I'll keep everyone who wants to know my gains by posting my monthly pips. If I make the gains I plan to it will be because I've made the correct choices based upon the best evidence available. If I don't do so well it will be because the evidence was not the best available, it won't be because I made poor decisions based upon the good advice, good evidence available at this site. However as I've stated previously, this site has plenty of good advice, so contingent upon that, my good decisions will bring me the superior gains I deserve. This should occurr in bull or bear markets. I really do appreciate your followup to my advice to Jamesran. May we all have good luck based upon sound choices this year.
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It is easy to make money, it is hard to hold onto it. With this administration it is key to hide it uh I mean shelter it.
 
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