Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
Hey, don't cry for me Argentina. I just gave back 7% but it's all coming back by next week - no myopic loss aversion here guys.


Thanks Birch! I was looking for a little pick me up today. All coming back by next week? Meaning this was last shakeout and an uptrend going into May?
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Birchtree said:
That's nice but I prefer the sweet smell of superlative bull manure to keep me sane.
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Just a personal observation over the past seven years, but you might want to try something different. I think you might be one strong wind away from kindling..............just saying.............;)
 
whats up mike, might be heading to Denton TXS , do some 1/8 mile racing this coming weekend , if nothing breaks friday night racing here , I
am going to bother neighbors tonight , make a pass or two up and down street to see if NOS is hitting right , before I confirm to Denton racing
 
kar_crazy said:
whats up mike, might be heading to Denton TXS , do some 1/8 mile racing this coming weekend , if nothing breaks friday night racing here , I
am going to bother neighbors tonight , make a pass or two up and down street to see if NOS is hitting right , before I confirm to Denton racing
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Assume! Keep an eye on that tach!! I sure miss my step-dad, the greatest mechanic EVER. He raced dirt tracks up until he was like 57 or so. Have a great time and burn it up! You must be keeping busy..........:D
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
I only made 2.34% in the first quarter, but you never want to show them all you got too early as the other team is always trying to steal your signals. There's a lot of game left. Stay low, maintain your center of gravity and keep on driving. Most importantly, when it's time to go long, watch out for those weak side blitzes on your blindside. Sometimes the best offense is a good defense..................​
;)
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I was able to avoid the weak side blitz last month that sacked the S fund for a 7.10 yard loss (-0.71%) and instead stepped up and threw a 45.1 yard touchdown (4.51%) to start the 2nd quarter. Although I still trail 6.96% to 13.64%, one more monthly drive like the last one should even things out a bit. I am now only about 1.04% behind the pace of scoring at least 24 points (24%) every game (year). We'll have to wait and see if the other team has burned itself out or if they have enough left in the tank to make it to halftime.
 
On a side note, if we had more IFTs or if one used a small cap fund and a bond fund similar to our S and F funds outside of TSP, like with a self-directed IRA, and used all the signals produced by my Timer system for the year, they would be up 11.36% YTD and it would require just two extra IFTs. This would still be lagging the buy and holders of the S fund, but it is also based on only being in equities for 45 days out of a possible 82. This is actually on the high side of how long my system typically stays in, but it still reduced one's risk of being in equities when some "flash crash" type event happens by 45%.
 
The overwhelming concern should be missing a potential melt up - because I can smell that sweet superlative bull manure. Today is just the beginning...
 
Birchtree said:
The overwhelming concern should be missing a potential melt up - because I can smell that sweet superlative bull manure. Today is just the beginning...
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True, and if one is naive enough to believe that the S fund will go up 30% every year, there is no need to time it. ;)

FYI, my current return is actually ahead of where I was in 2010 and in 2011. Even though I was lagging the S fund at this point in both years, I ended up beating it in both. In 2010 the S fund was up 15.19% at the end of April and last year it was up 11.16%. It closed yesterday up 13.64%. Wanna bet I beat it again? Before you answer that, you should know that my system was up 27.15% last year, but I modified it for 3 months and it really hurt my return.........................just saying...........:cheesy:
 
The S fund ran back the kickoff for over 100 yards today. Ut-oh, flag on the play. It will be starting at it's own 23 yard line....................:embarrest:
 
Mike,

I read in the Intrepid info that by trading your market signals on ETFs you expected to gain over 50% a year. So far I have not been trading ETFs with your system but will start on the next signal. Trading these market signals the past few months would have been much better then trading stocks. 50% a year or more is fantastic! I am beginning to be a believer in your system. What is the percentage of your trades signals being profitable? I think I had read somewhere that it was over 80%.

EZ
 
eztrader99 said:
Mike,

I read in the Intrepid info that by trading your market signals on ETFs you expected to gain over 50% a year. So far I have not been trading ETFs with your system but will start on the next signal. Trading these market signals the past few months would have been much better then trading stocks. 50% a year or more is fantastic! I am beginning to be a believer in your system. What is the percentage of your trades signals being profitable? I think I had read somewhere that it was over 80%.

EZ
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Hi EZ, this is the wrong thread to be posting this as this is my public account, but in answer to your question, the 50% per year is nothing more than a goal, and actually on the low end of what I expect. My short trades didn't perform well the first couple months of this year because of the big rally in equities, and this cut into my overall ETF profits. The past couple months they have done better with the increase in volatility. My last three TNA/TZA trades are currently up around 30%, so you can see that there is a lot to gain in a short period when everything is "clicking". ;)
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
Hi EZ, this is the wrong thread to be posting this as this is my public account, but in answer to your question, the 50% per year is nothing more than a goal, and actually on the low end of what I expect. My short trades didn't perform well the first couple months of this year because of the big rally in equities, and this cut into my overall ETF profits. The past couple months they have done better with the increase in volatility. My last three TNA/TZA trades are currently up around 30%, so you can see that there is a lot to gain in a short period when everything is "clicking". ;)
Click to expand...

Intrepid

I just signed up for an account with you, will I receive a Email, or how do I access your blog?

Taller
 
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