Interfund Transfer Cancelled

[Guest]

imported post

Yesterday gain...poof...

what out for low volume reversals at the close...that is NOT the bottom. That is actually extremely bearish...sorry to go against your commentary.

Do not be one of those "when I get back to even I will bail".

That was a receipe for 2000 that did not work out to well.

Tuxx

 

[LIG]

imported post

Tuxx:

I'm new to this.What should I infer from what you are saying,a total move to G is smart right now?:?

 

[LIG]

imported post

Tom:

I'm sorry if I missed any discussion on this topic...if it ever occurred, but what is the latest on the TSP giving us the ability to make same-day transfers? As I have started following your site and have contemplated making one move or another, I have found it exceedingly difficult to make "crystal ball decisions" due to the 2-day delay. Making a call on a move by itself is difficult enough.:X

 

[Rod]

imported post

Ride it out folks. You KNOW what happens the day after everyone bails...

God Bless:^

 

[JerBer]

imported post

Amen!! This craziness has GOT to stop! This was supposed to be a decent month what with Bush getting reelected and all!

 

[vectorman]

imported post

Take a good hard look at the DJIA chart going back a year; does it speak to you. Most people don't pay much attention to this chart, but it's telling a story and it don't look very pretty.:s

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJIA

 

[Rolo]

imported post

Hmmm. Yes. SPX doesn't look so hot either.

DWCP and EFA look much better; I think the market still favours small cap and international stocks. I do not think the transition is going to happen anytime soon in spite of interest rate hikes. I think that may be that 1. the hikes do not necessarily affect loan rates and 2. interest rates are still hella low with many hikes to go.

So, yes, what I am saying is:

eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!



I am 48S/49I/3C thinking of going 60I/30S/10G.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

LIG wrote:

Tom:

I'm sorry if I missed any discussion on this topic...if it ever occurred, but what is the latest on the TSP giving us the ability to make same-day transfers? As I have started following your site and have contemplated making one move or another, I have found it exceedingly difficult to make "crystal ball decisions" due to the 2-day delay. Making a call on a move by itself is difficult enough.:X

Hi LIG -
I don't think I ever heard about them giving us same day transfers. It think it would take a complete overhaul of the system because they don't track the share prices with intra-day moves.

Making day to day calls is tough. Finding those turns is a challenge. It's not for everyone.

Tom

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Tuxx wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

I am cancelling this transaction. We are seeing a turnaround!!

Tom,

I believe your first instinct was correct.

You can tell we are humans and not animals...we keep putting our hand out to see if the "live wire" is still alive. The animals learn from their mistakes...humans repeat them.

Tuxx

You are right. I would have been better off if I hadn't seen that turnaround on Wednesday. Hopefully many of the readers who follow the moves missed that last minute change.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Tuxx wrote:

Yesterday gain...poof...

what out for low volume reversals at the close...that is NOT the bottom. That is actually extremely bearish...sorry to go against your commentary.

Do not be one of those "when I get back to even I will bail".

That was a receipe for 2000 that did not work out to well.

Tuxx

This is not 2000. It's more like July 2004. Sentiment is very bearish so we will get a rally pretty quick. But it could be a selling opportunity as I believe we are back in consolidation mode, i.e. sell the rallies, buy the pullbacks.

 

[Mike]

imported post

If we're going back into consolidation mode, I'd prefer that the cycles last a few days rather than swing back and forth like this. Then at least I'd have a modest chance of timing this junk.

 

[Rolo]

imported post

ehehehe, Mike, good point.

I am taking the "Deer/Headlight" position.

Any move I make at this point may be cute, but has a greater chance of being WRONG! ...so I leave well enough alone until I havea stark indication otherwise.

 

[Rod]

imported post

Mike wrote:

If we're going back into consolidation mode, I'd prefer that the cycles last a few days rather than swing back and forth like this. Then at least I'd have a modest chance of timing this junk.

That's why you just stay put where yer at.

 

[Mike]

imported post

That's what I've done (aside from a couple shifts). The market is making me feel punch drunk. :?

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Mike wrote:

That's what I've done (aside from a couple shifts). The market is making me feel punch drunk. :?

Primary Bear Market - Stage 1 - Distribution
Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realize that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, they start to sell stocks. The public is still involved in the market at this stage and become willing buyers. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However, stocks begin to lose a bit of their luster and the decline begins to take hold.

This is an quote from th The Dow Theory. I don't know if it is the reality. However it is a caution flag. Something to consider.

The lack of investors and the fading market returns tell me that investors are sitting on the sidelines. The decline of S&P below 1180 is a serious correction that could change primary market movements. Therefore, I have elected to park the gains of 2004 into the G- fund until the market shows a clear signal of it's primary movement, bull or bear.

I could be entirely wrong! But, the risk is too great at this point, for me! Better be safe then sorry. There is always another primary movement for the bulls. Right now it's a fog bank that makes flying unsafe/risky. Maybe right, maybe wrong. But not worth the risk, not with a market that can't seem to find itself.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Mike]

imported post

How often do we just see a one-stage bull market followed by a decline into a bear market?

 

[Guest]

imported post

Mike wrote:

How often do we just see a one-stage bull market followed by a decline into a bear market?

For that matter, how often have we seen January down two years in a row (2002/3) followed by an up year and then down again? (3 of 4 down Januarys) Realizing that January is usually a stellar month, this is quite unusual.

The last time was 1981-82. We were up the next year, 1983,and down the following one...

We seem to be setting up for a similar scenario...(FYI In 1984, Jan was down 1% and the year was up 1%.)

 

[Rod]

imported post

Mike wrote:

That's what I've done (aside from a couple shifts). The market is making me feel punch drunk. :?

Hopefully we'll all feel a little better after today. At least we have a break domestically on Monday... may be a good time to be in (I).

God Bless:^

 

[smine]

imported post

That's what I'm thinking too, Rod. International markets aren't on holidayMonday, so I may stay with the I fund. At least it gives a nickelthen takes a nickel

 

[Rod]

imported post

smine wrote:

That's what I'm thinking too, Rod. International markets aren't on holidayMonday, so I may stay with the I fund. At least it gives a nickelthen takes a nickel

Yeah, I'll remain 30% in the (I).