Interfund Transfer Cancelled

[tsptalk]

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Another failed rally this morning. I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.

Looks like 1165 area on the S&P is the next test.

:shock: I hope everyone saw my post below that I cancelled this transaction. I had to run quick and get things out before the deadline. The market gave us a "V" bottom about a half hour before the deadline, that I was hoping to see.

 

[cowboy]

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I am going 100% S today on the hopes of catching a bounce on the S fund. I believe the economic crap that is coming out tomorrow should help the funds, if not well hit the basement soon. I think you call it catching the falling knife. This is a risky play and probably very short term. Good luck everyone!

 

[Safetyguy]

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tsptalk wrote:

I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.

Not a bad move -- why not more in the I?

 

[vectorman]

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Hi Cowboy, would you consider starting a 'Cowboy Account' so some of us can follow your progress. I see your allocation post here and there, but it would be nice to have them all in one place. I last observed that you were 100% I, if I didn't miss any other changes. The I is still riding above it's 50 day MA, but the S fund could finishits second day below the its 50 day MA.Whatinformation are you using to make this move. With the dollar falling further today, wouldn't the I fund benefit more from it tomorrow with less risk? Thank you. V-man

 

[tsptalk]

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I am cancelling this transaction. We are seeing a turnaround!!

 

[vectorman]

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Tom, with the dollar falling sharply today, wouldn't we see a better up side to the I fund, at least in the short term? Thanks

 

[cowboy]

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If your talking to me SafetyGuy. I just see the I fund at this time over the last 5 days as staying steady. Even though it has went up about .12 cents in the last 4 days. Itcan take thatgainin one day very quickly. The S has dropped to a level it may stabilize and I can make some green tomorrow unless it moves to fast on me today. That isthe risk of day trading it in a down market. Ifit does not bounce tomorrow then I will try to recover it some how.

 

[Safetyguy]

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cowboy wrote:

If your talking to me SafetyGuy.

Actually it was a question for Tom (since this is his forum) but just as relevant for you. Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[pyriel]

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S is very low right now and good for buying but the uncertainty of this market made me hesitant to go back in. I was 100i and went 100g today. Thought about going 100s withshare price going from 14.13 to 14.01. If there is a bounce, I would be buying in a high. Will sit this one out and try to get back in tomorrow. If the bounce continues, and looks like everything is a green light, i'll get back in right away. As you all know, I live on Guam and is 3 hours away from Japan, the dollar was beating the yen as of yesterday Wednesday afternoon my time while you guys were sleeping in the mainland which is what made me decide to bail out of I for today. We'll see how that works out.

 

[teknobucks]

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tsptalk wrote:

Another failed rally this morning. I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.

Looks like 1165 area on the S&P is the next test.

perhaps we should of allfollowed this lead....gut tells me couple of soft days still ahead before a major move up.

oh well:h

 

[tsptalk]

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teknobucks wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

Another failed rally this morning. I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.

Looks like 1165 area on the S&P is the next test.

perhaps we should of allfollowed this lead....gut tells me couple of soft days still ahead before a major move up.

oh well:h

I hope you saw this post later on...

I am cancelling this transaction. We are seeing a turnaround!!

 

[tsptalk]

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Safetyguy wrote:

tsptalk wrote:

I think I'll play it safe for now. I'm making an interfundtransfer this morning to 50% G, 30% C and 20% I fund. The trade deficit numbershave the dollar falling again, that is why I'm using the I fund.

Not a bad move -- why not more in the I?

Safetyguy -
As you may have saw, I cancelled that transaction, but I understand your point. I like the I fund in the short term for a test of the dollar's low but I do believe we are seeing a longer termbottom forming inthe dollar giving theI fundmore obstacles thanthe C fund over the intermediate term.

 

[smedlap]

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Hi everyone. I'm still 100% I and tomorrow we are going to have 55 degree weather in upstate NY. That's strange. Just as strange as this january market. I think a steady hand Coolhand until COBfollowing Friday when the FOMC and other events start to overshadow the market for a prelude to February. Ias Tom thought we would have a far better C, S, I market this January and take a febreuaru run, but so far we have lost 20% of our gains. Fact is, those of us that played the horse the last quarter did so well, it certainly did not hurt. Time to step back and take a clear look. I look at the market with toads and poles. Toads are the FOMC and poles are opportuities. But there are other seasonal natural market trends such as that which Tom posts due to the nature of the market. There is the other realization that the dollar is declining. We have the greatest economy, a fact. But the dollar is declining. A fact! So I say play I fund and the bumps in the road such as FOMC. I plan to retreat toG fund 100% next COB Friday and see how the the playing fielsd matures. Fact is I have stayed I fund and have done just fine not having the time to recently watch your many sage posts. Your comments team A....

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

I like the I fund in the short term for a test of the dollar's low but I do believe we are seeing a longer termbottom forming inthe dollar giving theI fundmore obstacles thanthe C fund over the intermediate term.

Tom,

I agree that we are testing the dollar's retracement andalso agree that we are likely seeing a longer term bottom forming in the dollar. However, I don't believe the bull resurgence in the dollar is anything more than a short-term spike in the continuing bear market for the dollar. I would be surprised if the dollar surge lasts more than 2-3 months at most. IMHO, we should then return to more dollar declines....

 

[tsptalk]

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saraho wrote:

I would be surprised if the dollar surge lasts more than 2-3 months at most. IMHO, we should then return to more dollar declines....

saraho -
I'm just looking at it from a technical analysis perspective. I'm not sure how our economy will effect it but I do know the "normal" range of the dollar index has been between 80 and 100 and it is currently 82. But of course we have seen extreme readings on the high end. As high as 150 going back back 20 years but it onlydipped below80 once for a few weeks back in 1992.

Why do you think the dollar will weaker further? I'm not much of an economist. :dah: Is that a technical reading, or fundamental?

Thanks,
Tom

 

[Skip]

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I see a little strengh in the market and the sp hitsupport at 1175.58" today then bounced to 1187.70 and CLOSED near the high.... This is one of the first days we closed strong !!!! Might be what we are looking for... We need a follow though !!

I moved to 60% g 40% I fund to short the dollar mostly...as we could still move lower...
I will wait until I see a signal to move more to stocks....

Trade did go though today.... as my SS ends in 89 sometines it takes 2 days.
I did buy the I fund 40cents lower than I sold it at 12/31/04:^

Skip

 

[Skip]

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Thats what I did today..... 40% I

Skip

 

[Skip]

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Even the charts look bad for the dollar....

Buying I fund is like shorting the dollar...

Skip

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

I'm not sure how our economy will effect it but I do know the "normal" range of the dollar index has been between 80 and 100 and it is currently 82. But of course we have seen extreme readings on the high end. As high as 150 going back back 20 years but it onlydipped below80 once for a few weeks back in 1992.

Why do you think the dollar will weaker further? I'm not much of an economist. :dah: Is that a technical reading, or fundamental?

Thanks,
Tom

The U.S. today is the world’s biggest debtor nation. We currently owe$7 trillion and ourdebt continues tosoar.Our trade deficit with other countries is staggering, and to finance this mountain of debt we’ve been flooding the world with dollars. Unless we do something to stop this, and fast, I feel that the inevitable result will be thatthe dollar will decline until it is displaced as the world’s dominant currency. At this point, I see no corrective change on the horizon.Despite the 30% drop in the dollar index from 121 in July 2001 to today’s 83,we have still failed to see a correction inthe huge U.S. trade imbalance. Much of what we need and consume in this country is made abroad. IMHO, it is going to take a much bigger declinebefore there is any hope of closing America’s colossal trade gap. Further, as the U.S. imports more oil and capital goods into this country, the trade deficit will only get larger. This means there will be more dollars sloshing around the globe and monetary expansion will continue unabated. It also meansthe inflationary spiral will continue,as long as the central banks can expand money and credit.

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

I am cancelling this transaction. We are seeing a turnaround!!

Tom,

I believe your first instinct was correct.

You can tell we are humans and not animals...we keep putting our hand out to see if the "live wire" is still alive. The animals learn from their mistakes...humans repeat them.

Tuxx