I'm Not Buying It

You can think what you'd like, but I'm not buying the programmed selling error report as the reason for the carnage. That's a smokescreen in a world of computerized trading. I won't speculate on it, but I'm not buying it in any event.

Today was the biggest one-day decline for the S&P this year. The VIX spiked as much as 60% at one point, and the dollar gained an additional 0.9%. Of course the Euro is taking the brunt of that pain and no end appears to be in sight.

The yield on the 10-year Note fell under 3.40, which was lowest level seen so far this year. And today also saw the highest trading volume of the year on the NYSE.

The fear over a Euro meltdown is real and the market senses that it's about to get worse. At least that's my take.

Programmed trading error...get real.

I can tell you what's real though. The Seven Sentinels sell signal that was issued last Friday. If you took advantage of it, you caught the Monday rally and side-stepped some major selling pressure thereafter. And while we are oversold in a big way, that's no guarantee it's over.

Here's today's charts:

NAMO.jpg

We can see the panic in these charts. Down hard.

NAHL.jpg

Same thing here.

TRIN.jpg

TRIN managed to stay on a buy, but TRINQ didn't.

BPCOMPQ.jpg

Yesterday I said BPCOMPQ looked like it was about to fall off a cliff. It did. Major red flag here unless this market reverses soon.

So we have 6 of 7 signals flashing sells, which keeps the system on a sell. What happens tomorrow after a day like today is difficult to gauge. If the fear is real it may be telling us things are about to go from bad to worse. We could bounce tomorrow, but that wouldn't make me bullish. Not if the market knows something we don't. We'll have to watch the charts for a clue. And right now they are downright ugly.

That's all for this evening, see you tomorrow.
 
So we were on our way to a lousy day...
A miserable day, maybe -300 DOW...
And, then bang...

The programmer in me senses something wrong in the code, eh...

Why all markets at the same instant?
Why different exchanges?
Why Bonds?

Me thinks there is very little chance that a computer error (or a programming/data error) can affect NYSE, NASDAQ, and EAFE. Even a fat finger would have to smear across a lot of keyboard space. It might be that the floors were looking for a reason to sell... But, maybe something else. Something that can hit disparate systems simultaneously :notrust:
 
Both the NYSE and Nasdaq are canceling trades in the 14:40 - 15:00 time window. I missed the IFT window this morning, so I guess I'll review the overseas markets early in the am. Frickin' Gnarly. What is safe?? Now I'm holding my breath the G Fund maintains. If the EU crashes, we could be a one-man-band PFQ.
It's election day in the UK, and it seems to be a redux of our 2008 season when the market crashed around the candidates. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ele...Europe-issues-warning-over-Britains-debt.html "The debt ratio in 2010/2011 is estimated to increase by 9.4 percentage points of GDP," the report warned. "In 2011/2012 the debt ratio at around 88 per cent of GDP is expected to overtake the EU average." ?!!
 
Canceling trades?

From multiple exchanges, using multiple computer systems, and probably with different market makers. I say this looks odd, very odd...

<Tin Foil Hat>

A still small voice
Maybe a case of cyber-crime
or cyber-sabotage​
</Tin Foil Hat>
 
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