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I fund down???
- Thread starter Pilgrim
- Start date
imported post
Formerly Red Pill Market Analyst. I just figured out how to post using my laptop (had to reset my cookie settings)and by doing so signed up again as Roguewave. Below is a read to help maneuver through the choppy waters as it pertains to the I fund. There's a real battle of epic proportions taking place in the currency markets and yes the future will not be like the past.
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2005/1209.html
Formerly Red Pill Market Analyst. I just figured out how to post using my laptop (had to reset my cookie settings)and by doing so signed up again as Roguewave. Below is a read to help maneuver through the choppy waters as it pertains to the I fund. There's a real battle of epic proportions taking place in the currency markets and yes the future will not be like the past.
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2005/1209.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Roguewave,
Thanks for the new web site: GoldenJackass.com - I'll check it out for new ideas.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600of leading European companies is up 21% for the year. It would seem the higher the dollar advances the greater the export earnings potential of these companies. But at a return on equity of 16%, a record, momentum probably and prudently will slow, but that in my opinion is not a reason to be overly bearish. We are in a global expansion where every country has opportunities. I don't think the dollar will roll over - these are long cycles.
Dennis
Roguewave,
Thanks for the new web site: GoldenJackass.com - I'll check it out for new ideas.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600of leading European companies is up 21% for the year. It would seem the higher the dollar advances the greater the export earnings potential of these companies. But at a return on equity of 16%, a record, momentum probably and prudently will slow, but that in my opinion is not a reason to be overly bearish. We are in a global expansion where every country has opportunities. I don't think the dollar will roll over - these are long cycles.
Dennis
imported post
Birchtree
Be careful, at this point in time, mixing up"speculative currencyplays" with currency fundamentals as they pertain to a particular country's GDP. I just had my head handed to me in the options market as I've been short the dollar pretty much this whole year. My options expired pretty much worthless a couple of days ago. Oh well, another donation to the goonsof the street. I didn't thinkinterest rates carried such a weight concerning a country's currencycompared toa country's fundamentals butI guessat this time it does. This decision went bad but I have more then made up for it on other positions so it's not to bad.
Just another"Lesson Learned" on the ole investment resume. I've been reading Jim Willie's work before he even launched his website. We've exchanged a few emails over the yearsand I rate his work at the top of who I listen to about how the"real world" works when it comes to investing. Hang in there, things are really going to getEXTREMELY volatile as wemake the transition fromGreenspan to Bernanke. The gold price is arleady on the job letting people know.
Goodluck and have a great day.
Birchtree
Be careful, at this point in time, mixing up"speculative currencyplays" with currency fundamentals as they pertain to a particular country's GDP. I just had my head handed to me in the options market as I've been short the dollar pretty much this whole year. My options expired pretty much worthless a couple of days ago. Oh well, another donation to the goonsof the street. I didn't thinkinterest rates carried such a weight concerning a country's currencycompared toa country's fundamentals butI guessat this time it does. This decision went bad but I have more then made up for it on other positions so it's not to bad.
Just another"Lesson Learned" on the ole investment resume. I've been reading Jim Willie's work before he even launched his website. We've exchanged a few emails over the yearsand I rate his work at the top of who I listen to about how the"real world" works when it comes to investing. Hang in there, things are really going to getEXTREMELY volatile as wemake the transition fromGreenspan to Bernanke. The gold price is arleady on the job letting people know.
Goodluck and have a great day.
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
I just took a look at the(EAFE) over a 5 year period....indications are its topped out at the moment, quite unlike it was in end of Oct which it look like it had bottomed out.......given the situation, caution is needed....this is also supported on the I fund performance of late.....looks to be topping out and waiting for a restful period....as with the C and S funds.....
I would be careful of jumping in the I fund for any period of time after EOY.....
:dude:
I just took a look at the(EAFE) over a 5 year period....indications are its topped out at the moment, quite unlike it was in end of Oct which it look like it had bottomed out.......given the situation, caution is needed....this is also supported on the I fund performance of late.....looks to be topping out and waiting for a restful period....as with the C and S funds.....
I would be careful of jumping in the I fund for any period of time after EOY.....
:dude:
imported post
Technician, I know it's going to take some doing, but I am going to pull you along with me and convince you to throw away those charts
. The I fund is a function of to many other variables to takea quick snapshot approach too. Political will has always driven these markets and is doing so more today then ever before. This is why there is a HUGE disconnect in old time, somewhat reliable,financial relationships that lent credence to charting techniques. I have a very good friend and colleague that is 60+ years old, 20 years my senior. Two years ago, he thought I was mad. Today he smiles and is very excited about retiring a little earlier then he thought possible.
Here's food for thought. The derivatives market controls the direction of the stock market.
Another nugget. There are over 30,000+ mutual funds and some 4 commodity funds. Now, if you understood the direction and future shift and flow of funds, where would you want to be positioned? Have a good day Sir.
The Technician wrote:
Technician, I know it's going to take some doing, but I am going to pull you along with me and convince you to throw away those charts
. The I fund is a function of to many other variables to takea quick snapshot approach too. Political will has always driven these markets and is doing so more today then ever before. This is why there is a HUGE disconnect in old time, somewhat reliable,financial relationships that lent credence to charting techniques. I have a very good friend and colleague that is 60+ years old, 20 years my senior. Two years ago, he thought I was mad. Today he smiles and is very excited about retiring a little earlier then he thought possible. Here's food for thought. The derivatives market controls the direction of the stock market.
Another nugget. There are over 30,000+ mutual funds and some 4 commodity funds. Now, if you understood the direction and future shift and flow of funds, where would you want to be positioned? Have a good day Sir.
The Technician wrote:
imported post
Wow. Check out the effect of the dollar on the I fund price. The EAFE was down .451% today in local currency but was up .63% in U.S dollars . The I fund should go up around 10 cents (assuming no TSP adjustment). For a more dramatic comparison look at the Far East portion of the EAFE. It was down 1.479% in local currency (because the Nikkei was down over 300 points) but in U.S dollars it was up .831% (because the dollar was down huge vs. the yen). A swing of 2.31%. Congrats to those of you with at least some sitting in the I fund. It's been a great few days for you.
http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html
Make sure you change the calendar to the 14th.
Dave
<><
Wow. Check out the effect of the dollar on the I fund price. The EAFE was down .451% today in local currency but was up .63% in U.S dollars . The I fund should go up around 10 cents (assuming no TSP adjustment). For a more dramatic comparison look at the Far East portion of the EAFE. It was down 1.479% in local currency (because the Nikkei was down over 300 points) but in U.S dollars it was up .831% (because the dollar was down huge vs. the yen). A swing of 2.31%. Congrats to those of you with at least some sitting in the I fund. It's been a great few days for you.
http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html
Make sure you change the calendar to the 14th.
Dave
<><
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Roguewave.....I appreciate you sending me the article on the dominace ofgoldover all currencies...but I believe as long as there are official curriencies available, gold will just be another commodity that is high priced at the moment....(why doI remember that I've seen this before-gold pumping, when was the last time I saw this....1980 something....)....GOLD isnot a good investment at the moment.....
You could just take that article and write in another commodity and get the same results....or theatrically get theresults......in any case, you need to follow the economic engine in the world, and there you will always find a good buy....but with gold at this time ...it is not such a good investment..........unless you like to buy high and sell low....
:dude:The Technician, aka Dances With Wolves, or as NNuut has given title to me, "Carnac the Magnificient"
Roguewave.....I appreciate you sending me the article on the dominace ofgoldover all currencies...but I believe as long as there are official curriencies available, gold will just be another commodity that is high priced at the moment....(why doI remember that I've seen this before-gold pumping, when was the last time I saw this....1980 something....)....GOLD isnot a good investment at the moment.....
You could just take that article and write in another commodity and get the same results....or theatrically get theresults......in any case, you need to follow the economic engine in the world, and there you will always find a good buy....but with gold at this time ...it is not such a good investment..........unless you like to buy high and sell low....
:dude:The Technician, aka Dances With Wolves, or as NNuut has given title to me, "Carnac the Magnificient"
vectorman
Active member
imported post
"Nikkei falls on strong yen, resource stocks hit"
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh00121_2005-12-16_01-30-46_t329721_newsml
"Nikkei falls on strong yen, resource stocks hit"
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh00121_2005-12-16_01-30-46_t329721_newsml
imported post
I pulled out my remaining I-Fund moneys, COB today. I see some very volatile times until the dollar stabilizes more. Its becoming clear that the strong dollar this year was adding a lot of fuel to the Nikkei rocket this year. I think the Nikkei is getting a little out of breath anyways.
I pulled out my remaining I-Fund moneys, COB today. I see some very volatile times until the dollar stabilizes more. Its becoming clear that the strong dollar this year was adding a lot of fuel to the Nikkei rocket this year. I think the Nikkei is getting a little out of breath anyways.
imported post
Technician, the pleasure was mine. My friend, I'll take the different fork in the road and walk in the footsteps of giants. I mean, after all, it's the Central Banks of the world that provide the play ground for things like the G, C, F, and whatever fund or paper instrumentyou can substitute in lieu thereof. Good luck.
Dawn of a New Gold Market
"EXECUTIVE SUMMARY"
It began with a statement released jointly by European central banks from Washington, D.C. on Sunday, 26 September 1999 under support of the following signatories---
The European Central Bank and the central banks of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and England.
Mr. Wim Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, announced the joint Statement on Gold:
"In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the above institutions make the following statement:
1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.
2. The above institutions will not enter the market as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales.
3. The gold sales already decided will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over the next five years. Annual sales will not exceed approximately 400 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,000 tons.
4. The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold futures and options over this period.
5. This agreement will be reviewed after five years."
The following remarks are from George Milling-Stanley, Manager, Gold Market Analysis--World Gold Council, from an October 6, 1999 address to The 12th Nikkei Gold Conference in regard to this important announcement:
"Central bank independence is enshrined in law in many countries, and central bankers tend to be independent thinkers. It is worth asking why such a large group of them decided to associate themselves with this highly unusual agreement...At the same time, through our close contacts with central banks, the Council has been aware that some of the biggest holders have for some time been concerned about the impact on the gold price -- and thus on the value of their gold reserves -- of unfounded rumours, and about the use of official gold for speculative purposes.
"Several of the central bankers involved had said repeatedly they had no intention of selling any of their gold, but they had been saying that as individuals -- and no-one had taken any notice. I think that is what Mr. Duisenberg meant when he said they were making this statement to clarify their intentions.
"But it is important to recognise that the agreement represents something of infinitely greater significance than a mere repetition of statements central bankers had already made, or a clarification of positions they already held. This is a binding agreement, signed by central bank governors on behalf of their respective institutions and/or governments. Moreover, the European Central Bank is among the signatories, and 11 of them are full members of the ECB, which has already assumed a large say in the management of the gold holdings of its individual members. The UK and Sweden are members of the European System of Central Banks. Therefore the agreement can be monitored.
"This should finally put to rest the fear that has kept the gold market in its paralysing grip for years, the fear that central banks have abandoned gold as a reserve asset, and are planning to sell all that they have.
"That fear flew in the face of all the observable evidence. It is a matter of fact that only five governments have sold a significant quantity of gold in the past 10 years, if we define a significant quantity as 100 tonnes or more. A handful of others have indicated that they would like to sell, but it is only a handful, as the recent statement from the world's largest gold holders demonstrates. That leaves something like 120 or so governments that own gold, and who have neither sold in significant amounts, nor indicated any desire to do so. In all, countries not covered by the agreement hold 4,800 tonnes of gold, and are free to sell; But in fact they are just as likely to buy. Several of them have in fact been buying to build up their gold reserves - Russia, Poland, and the Philippines, to name just three."
The Technician wrote:
Technician, the pleasure was mine. My friend, I'll take the different fork in the road and walk in the footsteps of giants. I mean, after all, it's the Central Banks of the world that provide the play ground for things like the G, C, F, and whatever fund or paper instrumentyou can substitute in lieu thereof. Good luck.
Dawn of a New Gold Market
"EXECUTIVE SUMMARY"
It began with a statement released jointly by European central banks from Washington, D.C. on Sunday, 26 September 1999 under support of the following signatories---
The European Central Bank and the central banks of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and England.
Mr. Wim Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, announced the joint Statement on Gold:
"In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the above institutions make the following statement:
1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.
2. The above institutions will not enter the market as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales.
3. The gold sales already decided will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over the next five years. Annual sales will not exceed approximately 400 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,000 tons.
4. The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold futures and options over this period.
5. This agreement will be reviewed after five years."
"Central bank independence is enshrined in law in many countries, and central bankers tend to be independent thinkers. It is worth asking why such a large group of them decided to associate themselves with this highly unusual agreement...At the same time, through our close contacts with central banks, the Council has been aware that some of the biggest holders have for some time been concerned about the impact on the gold price -- and thus on the value of their gold reserves -- of unfounded rumours, and about the use of official gold for speculative purposes.
"Several of the central bankers involved had said repeatedly they had no intention of selling any of their gold, but they had been saying that as individuals -- and no-one had taken any notice. I think that is what Mr. Duisenberg meant when he said they were making this statement to clarify their intentions.
"But it is important to recognise that the agreement represents something of infinitely greater significance than a mere repetition of statements central bankers had already made, or a clarification of positions they already held. This is a binding agreement, signed by central bank governors on behalf of their respective institutions and/or governments. Moreover, the European Central Bank is among the signatories, and 11 of them are full members of the ECB, which has already assumed a large say in the management of the gold holdings of its individual members. The UK and Sweden are members of the European System of Central Banks. Therefore the agreement can be monitored.
"This should finally put to rest the fear that has kept the gold market in its paralysing grip for years, the fear that central banks have abandoned gold as a reserve asset, and are planning to sell all that they have.
"That fear flew in the face of all the observable evidence. It is a matter of fact that only five governments have sold a significant quantity of gold in the past 10 years, if we define a significant quantity as 100 tonnes or more. A handful of others have indicated that they would like to sell, but it is only a handful, as the recent statement from the world's largest gold holders demonstrates. That leaves something like 120 or so governments that own gold, and who have neither sold in significant amounts, nor indicated any desire to do so. In all, countries not covered by the agreement hold 4,800 tonnes of gold, and are free to sell; But in fact they are just as likely to buy. Several of them have in fact been buying to build up their gold reserves - Russia, Poland, and the Philippines, to name just three."
The Technician wrote:
Soldat
Member
imported post
I believe that the Nikkei is on the uptrend and will continue up. Many Japanese traders are selling their dollars and buying back yen which will eventually stabalize the imbalance of a weakened dollar. The Nikkei will continue upward, and I think the rest of the year will show us that. Currently 100% I, going to pull out before 2006 breaks and buy back in after the great selloff of 06'. Probably looking at 20%G 20%F 30% C and 30% I. Good luck to all and great holy days. May Odhinn bless you all.
Rob
I believe that the Nikkei is on the uptrend and will continue up. Many Japanese traders are selling their dollars and buying back yen which will eventually stabalize the imbalance of a weakened dollar. The Nikkei will continue upward, and I think the rest of the year will show us that. Currently 100% I, going to pull out before 2006 breaks and buy back in after the great selloff of 06'. Probably looking at 20%G 20%F 30% C and 30% I. Good luck to all and great holy days. May Odhinn bless you all.
Rob
Eldritch Flatus
Member
imported post
mlk_man wrote:
Sooo.... May God bless all of you, and for me it'sMerry Christmas
mlk_man wrote:
Ummm..... Nordic Mythology, not Greek. Never seen it spelled that way though, was always Odin. Doesn't much matter to me cause I consider all religions (excluding those that worship evil) as man's effort to credit the Creator.Greek mythology. The god of universal wisdom and victory. Father of Thor.
He is said to have created the first human man and woman out of living trees....o
Wonder if this is why the symbol for genealogy is the tree?
Sooo.... May God bless all of you, and for me it'sMerry Christmas
Eldritch Flatus
Member
imported post
I mean Merry Christmas to All, and to All a Good, Prosperous, and Happy New Year
:^
I mean Merry Christmas to All, and to All a Good, Prosperous, and Happy New Year
:^