Heres14U
Member
Good Morning; 
These Hendrix lyrics remind me of the current markets;
Well she’s walking, thru the clouds, with a circus mind, running wild….. by Jimi Hendrix - Little Wing.
Wild roller coaster rides, the markets they do provide. Eh, excuse me just sort of drifting today.:cheesy:
Okay onto the markets.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.03. It is a HOLD Today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1329.98). Upside resistance is around 1298. I would think a bounce is due soon. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.37. Today it is BUY IF YOU DARE! It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 19.04) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 18.58. Extreme caution is warranted. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward. Possible bounce coming. In the tracker I am 100% S fund today for a possible bounce. My real TSP is in G as it is currently in transition to a rollover IRA.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.19 and is BUY IF YOU DARE!. It is also below its 20 day moving average ( tsp 22.52) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 22.03. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward. Possible bounce coming if US markets can rally.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.11. It is close enough to a BUY today The AGG must have paid its monthly dividend yesterday hence the big drop in price yesterday. The AGG is attempting to rise back above its 20 day moving average (99.96) as I write. It is slightly below Downside support around 100.00. I am still bullish on AGG hence the bullish parameters.
As of 7/1/08 I am #9 in the tracker with a return of +4.62% since 3/11/08. I will stay in the G fund as my TSP is in transition to a rollover IRA with Firstrade. In the tracker however, I am currently 100% S-fund and expecting some sort of a bounce soon.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/26/08 C 14.62 1350.41 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/27/08 C 14.57 1344.31 -.30 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/30/08 C 14.59 1339.03 -.27 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/01/08 C 14.65 1334.39 -.19 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
7/02/08 C ----- 1329.98 -.03 -.10 +.30 HOLD
6/26/08 S 18.41 19.32 -.51 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/27/08 S 18.38 19.25 -.54 -.55 +.00 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/30/08 S 18.27 19.18 -.51 -.55 +.00 HOLD
7/01/08 S 18.28 19.11 -.53 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!
7/02/08 S ----- 19.04 -.37 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/26/08 I 21.89 22.95 -.19 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/27/08 I 21.98 22.85 -.42 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/30/08 I 22.09 22.76 -.12 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/01/08 I 21.73 22.65 -.23 -.10 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
7/02/08 I ----- 22.56 -.19 -.10 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/26/08 F 12.06 100.13 +.49 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/27/08 F 12.07 100.10 +.40 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/30/08 F 12.08 100.07 +.72 +.10 +.60 SELL
7/01/08 F 12.06 100.00 +.42 +.10 +.60 WAIT
7/02/08 F ----- 99.96 +.11 +.10 +.60 CLOSE ENOUGH FOR BUY!
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.
These Hendrix lyrics remind me of the current markets;
Well she’s walking, thru the clouds, with a circus mind, running wild….. by Jimi Hendrix - Little Wing.
Wild roller coaster rides, the markets they do provide. Eh, excuse me just sort of drifting today.:cheesy:
Okay onto the markets.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.03. It is a HOLD Today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1329.98). Upside resistance is around 1298. I would think a bounce is due soon. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.37. Today it is BUY IF YOU DARE! It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 19.04) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 18.58. Extreme caution is warranted. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward. Possible bounce coming. In the tracker I am 100% S fund today for a possible bounce. My real TSP is in G as it is currently in transition to a rollover IRA.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.19 and is BUY IF YOU DARE!. It is also below its 20 day moving average ( tsp 22.52) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 22.03. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward. Possible bounce coming if US markets can rally.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.11. It is close enough to a BUY today The AGG must have paid its monthly dividend yesterday hence the big drop in price yesterday. The AGG is attempting to rise back above its 20 day moving average (99.96) as I write. It is slightly below Downside support around 100.00. I am still bullish on AGG hence the bullish parameters.
As of 7/1/08 I am #9 in the tracker with a return of +4.62% since 3/11/08. I will stay in the G fund as my TSP is in transition to a rollover IRA with Firstrade. In the tracker however, I am currently 100% S-fund and expecting some sort of a bounce soon.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/26/08 C 14.62 1350.41 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/27/08 C 14.57 1344.31 -.30 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/30/08 C 14.59 1339.03 -.27 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/01/08 C 14.65 1334.39 -.19 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
7/02/08 C ----- 1329.98 -.03 -.10 +.30 HOLD
6/26/08 S 18.41 19.32 -.51 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/27/08 S 18.38 19.25 -.54 -.55 +.00 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/30/08 S 18.27 19.18 -.51 -.55 +.00 HOLD
7/01/08 S 18.28 19.11 -.53 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!
7/02/08 S ----- 19.04 -.37 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/26/08 I 21.89 22.95 -.19 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/27/08 I 21.98 22.85 -.42 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/30/08 I 22.09 22.76 -.12 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/01/08 I 21.73 22.65 -.23 -.10 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
7/02/08 I ----- 22.56 -.19 -.10 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/26/08 F 12.06 100.13 +.49 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/27/08 F 12.07 100.10 +.40 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/30/08 F 12.08 100.07 +.72 +.10 +.60 SELL
7/01/08 F 12.06 100.00 +.42 +.10 +.60 WAIT
7/02/08 F ----- 99.96 +.11 +.10 +.60 CLOSE ENOUGH FOR BUY!
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.
"Depression, Stagflation, Plague and Purgatory! Put Your Money Under the Matress!" or cheerleader central :laugh: "Buy Stocks Now! Light at the end of the Tunnel, Just Around the Bend! Buy Now, It's Bargain Time (tm)!"
