Here's14U's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Thank you for your consistent competent analysis. The information is very helpful in looking at IFT decisions.

Regards,

FS

 

[Heres14U]

Thank you Fogsailing for the kind words. If I can help members with their IFT decisions its all worthwhile. I don't expect members to follow me or my recommendations, consider them tools in the tool box. Heck, I don't even follow my own system recommendations because there are so many of them per month and it's hard to believe in them at times. Right now is tricky as the 11am readings are bullish but the longer term momentum charts are bearish. That means we are in a bounce phase within the longer term bear phase. By longer term I mean a month or so not 6 months as most would think. By short term I'm talking days (11am Readings). Anyway, thanks again and good luck to you all!
Regards, Here's14U.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The stock markets are oversold and entitled to a bounce. Will the bounce be sustainable? After this bounce the S&P500 could very well move down into the 1280-1300 level. At that point a possible intermediate term bottom could form. It’s going to be tough going with the thought of higher global interest rates going forward. I don’t think I want to waste an IFT on this bounce, we will be going lower the current trend is still down..
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.05. It doesn’t have much further to go before it hits its Sell Above parameter of +.10. It is a HOLD IF YOU ARE IN Today. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived and shorted. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average (1379.65) which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 1-2 weeks. Most likely going down to 1280-1300.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.10. It can move down to -.60 so buying here would be a little premature. In time of desperation the reading can go as low as -.90. This fund is WAIT today for lower prices although on the 11th it was very close to a BUY IF YOU DARE! It is below it’s 20 day moving average which is a bad sign and it’s longer term momentum chart is now falling which simply means rallies most likely will not be sustainable. I’m expecting falling momentum to continue for 1-2 weeks.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.20 and is a HOLD. For four days it was BUY IF YOU DARE! And is very oversold. In times of desperation the reading can go down to -1.00 before rallying. The Euro is up this morning which should help the I-fund. It looks like it good also have a sustainable rally.
My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies could be short lived so this is a gamble on a trend change. I’ve adjusted the Sell Above parameter to a bullish +.45.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.45. It is a HOLD today. It is certainly due for a bounce. In times of desperation it can go down to -1.00. Buying here could be a little premature. The yield on the ten year Treasury is down slightly today but in a firm up trend. Inflation is taking its toll on bonds. The longer term chart (AGG) appears to have topped out and it is now looking quite negative. I thought we would get some kind of a bounce maybe this is it. I’ve adjusted the BUY BELOW parameter to -.65 to reflect a very weak market.
I will be moving to 100% I fund today. It is the most oversold and provides the best potential. The Euro also looks good here for a rally also. This may be a very short term play, we will see how it goes. As of 6/13/08 I am #5 in the tracker with a return of +.7.47% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about 2-4 weeks) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in my longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/10/08 C 15.47 1393.10 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/11/08 C 15.21 1389.72 -.53 -.40 +.10 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/12/08 C 15.26 1386.28 -.20 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/13/08 C 15.49 1383.10 -.09 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/16/08 C ----- 1379.65 -.05 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN

6/10/08 S 19.34 19.52 -.38 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/11/08 S 19.02 19.51 -.54 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/12/08 S 19.04 19.49 -.42 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/13/08 S 19.36 19.48 -.26 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/16/08 S ----- 19.47 -.10 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/10/08 I 22.94 23.99 -.82 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/11/08 I 22.62 23.93 -.78 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/12/08 I 22.57 23.85 -.96 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/13/08 I 22.75 23.77 -.62 -.65 +.20 HOLD IF IN
6/16/08 I ----- 23.68 -.20 -.45 +.45 I’m Buying today.

6/10/08 F 11.99 101.29 -.23 -.65 +.25 SELL IF IN
6/11/08 F 12.03 101.22 -.29 -. 65 +.25 WAIT
6/12/08 F 11.95 101.11 -.65 -.65 +.25 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/13/08 F 11.93 100.96 -.46 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/16/08 F ----- 100.84 -.45 -.65 +.25 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Gumby]

I will be moving to 100% I fund today. It is the most oversold and provides the best potential. The Euro also looks good here for a rally also. This may be a very short term play, we will see how it goes. As of 6/13/08 I am #5 in the tracker with a return of +.7.47% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!

Here's14U

Thanks for your perspective. I am trying to play the I bounce also. Good luck. I am looking for a 1 to 3% upward bounce in the short term.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Gumby we will see what happens. The I-fund has room to run.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at +.01. It is a HOLD IF YOU ARE IN Today. Resistance is 1370-1372 so if its going to move up it needs to do it today or tomorrow to continue the uptrend. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average (1379.65) which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I believe we are in a bottoming phase.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.01. I believe is should be a HOLD if you are in it. Like the C fund it may be in a bottoming phase and ready to move higher. On the 11th it was very close to a BUY IF YOU DARE! And very oversold. It is above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.04 and is a HOLD. For four days it was BUY IF YOU DARE! And is very oversold. The Euro is up this morning again which should help the I-fund. I bought the I-fund yesterday in the hope that it has hit solid support and can rally from here. My strategy is to sell the I-fund if we near a +.50 at an 11am reading in coming days.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.15. It is a HOLD today. It is certainly due for a bounce. In times of desperation it can go down to -1.00. Buying here could be a little premature. The yield on the ten year Treasury is down slightly today but in a firm up trend. Inflation is taking its toll on bonds. The longer term chart (AGG) appears to have topped out and it is now looking quite negative. I thought we would get some kind of a bounce maybe this is it. I’ve adjusted the BUY BELOW parameter to -.65 to reflect a very weak market.
I will be holding 100% I fund for tomorrow. It is the most oversold and provides the best potential. The Euro also looks good here for a rally also. This may be a very short term play, we will see how it goes. As of 6/16/08 I am #5 in the tracker with a return of +.7.47% since 3/11/08.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/17/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they have bottomed or are very close to bottoming. These adjustments would allow us to sell at higher prices and throw a buy signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from down to up in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/11/08 C 15.21 1389.72 -.53 -.40 +.10 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/12/08 C 15.26 1386.28 -.20 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/13/08 C 15.49 1383.10 -.09 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/16/08 C 15.49 1379.84 -.05 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/17/08 C ----- 1376.55 +.01 -.10 +.30 HOLD IF IN

6/11/08 S 19.02 19.51 -.54 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/12/08 S 19.04 19.49 -.42 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/13/08 S 19.36 19.48 -.26 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/16/08 S 19.51 19.47 -.10 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/17/08 S ----- 19.47 -.01 -.10 +.40 HOLD IF IN

6/11/08 I 22.62 23.93 -.78 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/12/08 I 22.57 23.85 -.96 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/13/08 I 22.75 23.77 -.62 -.65 +.20 HOLD
6/16/08 I 22.82 23.68 -.20 -.45 +.45 I’m Buying today.
6/17/08 I ----- 23.60 -.04 -.45 +.45 HOLD

6/11/08 F 12.03 101.22 -.29 -. 65 +.25 WAIT
6/12/08 F 11.95 101.11 -.65 -.65 +.25 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/13/08 F 11.93 100.96 -.46 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/16/08 F 11.93 100.83 -.45 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/17/08 F ----- 100.71 -.15 -.65 +.25 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[DCguy]

thx for the good info. It's been so quiet here. I didnt see any significant changes in the market yesterday or today.

 

[nnuut]

Tomorrow is WhipSaw Wednesday, might be more fun than today!View attachment 4084

 

[Guest2]

Gosh I Love His Animation

 

[FogSailing]

Glad I bailed out of I yesterday. Would have been nice to stay for the additional 1% pick me up today..but I did well the prior two days..Now I have to wait till July to play TSP again.....bummer but at least I made a few sheckles this month..

One of these days those who play in the power positions at FTRIB and on the Hill will have their "bologna" policy overturned...all this bull about these IFT's costing more money is so much bullcrap...and these policies have reduced my ability to earn more in my account this year...

Don't you just love when the Government is so helpful to those of us Not In Need.. if only they had been so caring about Katrina victims..

That's my rant for the day..off to sail for the rest of the month..Good luck to all my friends on in TSP Talk...

FS

 

[Fivetears]

I wanna send this guy to tell the FTRIB what I think!!! :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

Now I feel like my father when I was growing up. I'd have my music turned
up to the max and he'd come storming in, screaming at the top of his lungs.

"Damn son, you can't even understand what the hell they're saying"

Coming from the Sinatra / Bennett era, I just thought he was old !
Well attention Pink Floyd fans and anyone who couldn't understand
a thing that guy was singing (saying?), I've got some news for you !

You are now officially OLD ! God bless Guitar Rock ! :nuts:

 

[luv2read]

In A Gadda Da Vida, baby.

 

[nasa1974]

Now I feel like my father when I was growing up. I'd have my music turned
up to the max and he'd come storming in, screaming at the top of his lungs.

"Damn son, you can't even understand what the hell they're saying"

Coming from the Sinatra / Bennett era, I just thought he was old !
Well attention Pink Floyd fans and anyone who couldn't understand
a thing that guy was singing (saying?), I've got some news for you !

You are now officially OLD ! God bless Guitar Rock ! :nuts:

LOL The Boomers have now become our parents. Back when I was 20 something I never thought this would happen to me. :nuts::nuts:

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Financials are getting hit again. $BKX with new low setting a bearish tone for the entire market.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.12. It is a BUY IF YOU DARE! Today. Resistance is 1370-1372 so if its going to move up it needs to do it soon. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average (1379.65) which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I believe we are in a bottoming phase.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.07. I believe is should be a HOLD if you are in it. Like the C fund it may be in a bottoming phase and ready to move higher. On the 11th it was very close to a BUY IF YOU DARE! And very oversold. I believe it is now below it’s 20 day moving average which is a not a good sign.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.15 and is a HOLD. For four days it was BUY IF YOU DARE! And is very oversold. The Euro is down slightly this morning which will be a drag on the I-fund today. My strategy is to sell the I-fund if we near a +.50 at an 11am reading in coming days.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.11. It is a HOLD today. It is certainly due for a bounce.
I will be holding 100% I fund for tomorrow. It is the most oversold and provides the best potential. The Euro also looks good here for a rally also. This may be a very short term play, we will see how it goes. As of 6/17/08 I am #4 in the tracker with a return of +8.17% since 3/11/08.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/17/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they have bottomed or are very close to bottoming. These adjustments would allow us to sell at higher prices and throw a buy signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from down to up in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/12/08 C 15.26 1386.28 -.20 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/13/08 C 15.49 1383.10 -.09 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/16/08 C 15.49 1379.84 -.05 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/17/08 C 15.39 1376.06 +.01 -.10 +.30 HOLD IF IN
6/18/08 C ----- 1372.31 -.12 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/12/08 S 19.04 19.49 -.42 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/13/08 S 19.36 19.48 -.26 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/16/08 S 19.51 19.47 -.10 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/17/08 S 19.47 19.46 -.01 -.10 +.40 HOLD IF IN
6/18/08 S ----- 19.45 -.07 -.10 +.40 HOLD

6/12/08 I 22.57 23.85 -.96 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/13/08 I 22.75 23.77 -.62 -.65 +.20 HOLD
6/16/08 I 22.82 23.68 -.20 -.45 +.45 I’m Buying today.
6/17/08 I 22.97 23.59 -.04 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/18/08 I ----- 23.51 -.15 -.45 +.45 HOLD

6/12/08 F 11.95 101.11 -.65 -.65 +.25 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/13/08 F 11.93 100.96 -.46 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/16/08 F 11.93 100.83 -.45 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/17/08 F 11.96 100.71 -.15 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/18/08 F ----- ------- +.11 -. 65 +.25 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.11. It is a BUY IF YOU DARE! Today. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average (1369.55) which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I believe we are in a bottoming phase.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.10. Today it is a BUY IF YOU DARE! Like the C fund it may be in a bottoming phase and ready to move higher.It is now below it’s 20 day moving average which is a not a good sign.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.19 and is a HOLD. And is very oversold. The Euro is down slightly this morning which will be a drag on the I-fund today. My strategy is to sell the I-fund if we near a +.50 at an 11am reading in coming days.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.39. It is a HOLD today. Adjusted parameters to reflect a possible bottom in.
I will be holding 100% I fund for tomorrow. It is the most oversold and provides the best potential. The Euro also looks good here for a rally also. This may be a very short term play, we will see how it goes. As of 6/18/08 I am #5 in the tracker with a return of +7.37% since 3/11/08.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/17/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they have bottomed or are very close to bottoming. These adjustments would allow us to sell at higher prices and throw a buy signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from down to up in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/13/08 C 15.49 1383.10 -.09 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/16/08 C 15.49 1379.84 -.05 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/17/08 C 15.39 1376.06 +.01 -.10 +.30 HOLD IF IN
6/18/08 C 15.24 1372.28 -.12 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/19/08 C ----- 1369.34 -.11 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/13/08 S 19.36 19.48 -.26 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/16/08 S 19.51 19.47 -.10 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/17/08 S 19.47 19.46 -.01 -.10 +.40 HOLD IF IN
6/18/08 S 19.31 19.45 -.07 -.10 +.40 HOLD
6/19/08 S ----- ----- -.10 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/13/08 I 22.75 23.77 -.62 -.65 +.20 HOLD
6/16/08 I 22.82 23.68 -.20 -.45 +.45 I’m Buying today.
6/17/08 I 22.97 23.59 -.04 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/18/08 I 22.80 23.51 -.15 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/19/08 I ----- 23.44 -.19 -.45 +.45 HOLD

6/13/08 F 11.93 100.96 -.46 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/16/08 F 11.93 100.83 -.45 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/17/08 F 11.96 100.71 -.15 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/18/08 F 12.02 100.60 +.11 -. 65 +.25 HOLD
6/19/08 F ----- 100.49 +.39 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[luv2read]

Thanks for the great information in such a TIMELY manner EVERY day. You are "da best!"

I agree that the AGG put in a bottom June 13. If the I fails, a move to the F at 12.00 -12.07 might be prudent. Sell at 12.11 or higher to G, and if C/S/I continue to fall, DCA into them. Just one strategy.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Thank you luv2read for the kind words, I’m retired so have time to do this for now. I will be moving my TSP into a rollover IRA with a brokerage in the near future which is in progress. I’m tired of this ridiculous 2 IFT per month business with only a few choices of funds.
Stocks drop, weak financials, downgrades of MBIA, and Ambac. Oil up. Dow breaks 12,000 to the downside..
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.19. It is a WAIT Today. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average (1366.42) which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I guess we go back down to test March lows.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.20. Today it is a WAIT It is now below it’s 20 day moving average which is a not a good sign. Could follow C fund.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.25 and is a WAIT. And is oversold. I’m selling it today, the markets are just to weak at this time.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.57. It is a SELL today. Adjusted parameters to reflect a possible bottom in.
I will be holding 100% I fund for tomorrow. It is the most oversold and provides the best potential. The Euro also looks good here for a rally also. This may be a very short term play, we will see how it goes. As of 6/18/08 I am #5 in the tracker with a return of +7.37% since 3/11/08.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/20/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they are still in a bear trend. They are all below their respective 20 day moving averages which could last longer than expected. These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from up to down in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/16/08 C 15.49 1379.84 -.05 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/17/08 C 15.39 1376.06 +.01 -.10 +.30 HOLD IF IN
6/18/08 C 15.24 1372.28 -.12 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/19/08 C 15.30 13.69.88 -.11 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/20/08 C ----- 1366.42 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT

6/16/08 S 19.51 19.47 -.10 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/17/08 S 19.47 19.46 -.01 -.10 +.40 HOLD IF IN
6/18/08 S 19.31 19.45 -.07 -.10 +.40 HOLD
6/19/08 S 19.40 19.46 -.10 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/20/08 S ----- 19.45 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/16/08 I 22.82 23.68 -.20 -.45 +.45 I’m Buying today.
6/17/08 I 22.97 23.59 -.04 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/18/08 I 22.80 23.51 -.15 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/19/08 I 22.54 23.43 -.19 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/20/08 I ----- 23.33 -.25 -.65 +.20 WAIT/I’m Selling

6/16/08 F 11.93 100.83 -.45 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/17/08 F 11.96 100.71 -.15 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/18/08 F 12.02 100.60 +.11 -. 65 +.25 HOLD
6/19/08 F 11.99 100.47 +.39 -.50 +.50 HOLD
6/20/08 F ----- 100.39 +.59 -.50 +.50 SELL
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[airlift]

Here's14U,

Based on your experience with your system, I want to ask your opinion. As you sated:

"The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.20. Today it is a WAIT It is now below it’s 20 day moving average which is a not a good sign. Could follow C fund. The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.25 and is a WAIT. And is oversold. I’m selling it today, the markets are just to weak at this time."

Did you choose to IFT to the G fund because you noticed that the markets are too weak, even though you had a "Buy if you dare" signal on 6/19/08 for the C and S funds? Thanks in advance.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Airlift, the reason I sold the I-fund, even though the system was throwing buys for the C and S funds was mainly because I’m retired and cannot sustain a larger loss. Another reason was the small rally we experienced last week failed signaling further possible losses. We are in a bear market, with longer term momentum charts falling so, in my own personal case, I decided against staying in. I’ve come to the conclusion that as long as stock fund prices stay below their respective 20 day moving averages we can expect more pain. I had hoped that last weeks rally would hold, unfortunately it didn’t so we are back to a dangerous bearish trend. Another reason is I changed the Sell Above and Sell Below parameters (on 6/20/08) to reflect a renewed bearish trend because of last week’s rally/failure.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.19. It is a WAIT Today. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average (1363.27) which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I guess we go back down to test March lows. Last week’s rally failed so we can expect more weakness.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.21. Today it is a WAIT It is now below it’s 20 day moving average which is a not a good sign. Could follow C fund.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.53 and is a BUY IF YOU DARE! Even though the system is saying possible buy today we could move lower as last week’s rally failed. Extreme caution is warranted.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.44. It is a WAIT today.
As of 6/20/08 I am #11 in the tracker with a return of +4.45% since 3/11/08. I will be sitting in the G fund the rest of the month.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/20/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they are still in a bear trend. They are all below their respective 20 day moving averages which could last longer than expected. These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from up to down in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/17/08 C 15.39 1376.06 +.01 -.10 +.30 HOLD IF IN
6/18/08 C 15.24 1372.28 -.12 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/19/08 C 15.30 1369.88 -.11 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/20/08 C 15.02 1366.06 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/23/08 C ----- 1363.27 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT

6/17/08 S 19.47 19.46 -.01 -.10 +.40 HOLD IF IN
6/18/08 S 19.31 19.45 -.07 -.10 +.40 HOLD
6/19/08 S 19.40 19.46 -.10 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/20/08 S 19.10 19.45 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/23/08 S ----- 19.45 -.21 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/17/08 I 22.97 23.59 -.04 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/18/08 I 22.80 23.51 -.15 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/19/08 I 22.54 23.43 -.19 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/20/08 I 22.18 23.32 -.25 -.65 +.20 WAIT/I’m Selling
6/23/08 I ----- 23.22 -.53 -.45 +.45 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/17/08 F 11.96 100.71 -.15 -.65 +.25 HOLD
6/18/08 F 12.02 100.60 +.11 -. 65 +.25 HOLD
6/19/08 F 11.99 100.47 +.39 -.50 +.50 HOLD
6/20/08 F 12.02 100.38 +.59 -.50 +.50 SELL
6/23/08 F ----- 100.28 +.44 -.50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[FogSailing]

Truly a pleasure to read your post 14u...Thanks for the thoughtful analysis.

FS