Here's14U's Account Talk

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Well, is this the beginning or the end of the rally or the pause that refreshes? All the stock funds remain above their respective 20 day moving averages so far so I’m staying in the I-fund. I believe we needed a good scare today to refresh the market for another push up. Let’s see how it goes Monday.
The C-fund is down as I write. It’s reading is -.12 and is a Buy/Hold today. If you bought yesterday it is a Hold.
The S fund is down this morning. It’s reading is .00 and is a Buy/Hold today.
The I-fund is down this morning. It’s current reading is -.15 and is in Buy/Hold.
The F-fund (AGG) is up this morning. It is at +.20 and Hold if you are in it.
Currently I am 100%-I fund with one IFT so far for May..
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!

---------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/05/08 C 15.98 1376.56 +.08 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/06/08 C 16.10 1379.19 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/07/08 C 15.82 1381.10 +.10 +.10 +.25 BUY
5/08/08 C 15.88 1382.95 -.11 +.10 +.25 BUY
5/09/08 C ----- 1385.87 -.12 +.10 +.25 Buy/Hold

5/05/08 S 19.10 18.69 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/06/08 S 19.26 18.72 +.04 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/07/08 S 18.99 18.75 +.24 +.10 +.40 WAIT
5/08/08 S 19.09 18.77 -.11+.10 +.40 BUY
5/09/08 S ----- 18.83 +.00 +.10 +.40 Buy/Hold

5/05/08 I 24.08 23.53 +.12 -. 45 +.45 WAIT
5/06/08 I 24.12 23.57 +.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/07/08 I 23.82 23.60 +.07 +.10 +.45 BUY-I-BOT
5/08/08 I 24.10 23.63 -.22 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/09/08 I ----- 23.70 -.15 +.10 +.45 Buy/Hold

5/05/08 F 12.17 102.14 -.07 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/06/08 F 12.15 102.10 -.10 -. 50 +.50 HOLD
5/07/08 F 12.17 102.06 -.33 -.50 +.50 I SOLD
5/08/08 F 12.21 102.04 +.17 -.50 +.50 Hold if in
5/09/08 F ----- 102.01 +.20 -.50 +.50 Hold if in
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Stoplight]

Thanks for posting your daily recommendations, Here's ! I look forward to seeing your system's daily recommendations

GL !

Stoplight...

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Stoplight, thanks glad you enjoy my posts. God willing I’ll keep the thread going.
This morning looks pretty good so far. We really need a strong up day today to keep the rally going. The 20 day moving averages are not to far below current prices so an up day is a must now.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols.
The C-fund ($spx) is up as I write. It’s reading is -.15 and is a Buy/Hold today.
The S fund ($sml) is up this morning. It’s reading is -.05 and is a Buy/Hold today.
The I-fund ($iee) is up this morning. It’s current reading is -.19 and is in Buy/Hold.
The F-fund (AGG) is up this morning. It is at +.23 and Hold if you are in it.
Currently I am staying 100%-I fund with one IFT so far in May.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!

----------- Share 20dy--- 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma------ Read Below Above Rec
5/06/08 C 16.10 1379.19 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/07/08 C 15.82 1381.10 +.10 +.10 +.25 BUY
5/08/08 C 15.88 1382.95 -.11 +.10 +.25 BUY
5/09/08 C 15.77 1385.72 -.12 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 C ------- 1388.74 -.15 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD

5/06/08 S 19.26 18.72 +.04 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/07/08 S 18.99 18.75 +.24 +.10 +.40 WAIT
5/08/08 S 19.09 18.77 -.11+.10 +.40 BUY
5/09/08 S 19.05 18.82 +.00 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 S ----- 18.87 -.05 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD

5/06/08 I 24.12 23.57 +.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/07/08 I 23.82 23.60 +.07 +.10 +.45 BUY-I-BOT
5/08/08 I 24.10 23.63 -.22 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/09/08 I 23.82 23.70 -.15 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 I ----- 23.75 -.19 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD

5/06/08 F 12.15 102.10 -.10 -. 50 +.50 HOLD
5/07/08 F 12.17 102.06 -.33 -.50 +.50 I SOLD
5/08/08 F 12.21 102.04 +.17 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/09/08 F 12.21 102.01 +.20 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/12/08 F ----- 101.99 +.23 -.50 +.50 HOLD

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Boxkicker]

I'm sorry to keep bugging you, but here's another one for you...

I don't understand your postive/negative readings.

"The C-fund ($spx) is up as I write. It’s reading is -.15 and is a Buy/Hold today."

Uhh... what? How do you have a -.15 reading and be up? Is the -.15 relative to yesterday's close, or today's open, or yesterday's same time reading?

"5/12/08 C ------- 1388.74 -.15 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD"

Okay, so the -.15 is the reading. If the reading is +.10 or below, then you are recommending a buy. If the reading is +.25 or above, you are recommending a sell. Maybe I just answered my own question, but if the C fund is not gaining .10 at 11am, then it's a buy. We can leave the amount of shares we buy up to our own discretion, but only look to sell if the fund has gained .25 by 11am. With only two IFT's, incremental purchases will have to be spread out with a long eye, but that is okay.

Sorry, I am obviously nuking this.

I am trying to chart my own transactions, buys and sells, but my Excel skill are limited to basic formulas and occasional hyperlinking. Does anyone have a good spreadsheet to share that would do just that, keep a record of our own individual buy/sell history with #of shares at specific prices? I am a far cry from being able to mimic Here's14U's price tracking on my own. That being said, Here's14U, are you willing to share your Excel application?

 

[Heres14U]

Boxkicker let me clarify for you and others. Take the C-fund. Buy Below is +.10, so if the 11am reading is +.09 or less than you can Buy or continue to hold if you already own it. Sell Above is +.25. You would sell your shares if tomorrow's or next day's or the next day's 11am reading gets above +.25. That's all there is to it. The important thing to remember is "Do Not Buy above a +.10 11am reading for that day. Only Buy below +.10 which includes the negative numbers. When the 11am readings get above +.10 we are looking to Sell when we get above +.25. 14U.

 

[XL-entLady]

Hi Boxkicker,

It may be that people's spreadsheets are too specific to their own needs to be of much assistance to many other people. For example, my own TSP XL workbook currently has 21 separate worksheets with eleven years of current data.

My Excel spreadsheets also have embedded commands that go back to earlier incarnations in QuattroPro, a couple of decades ago.:blink: LOL These spreadsheets have lots of arcane formulas that are probably of no use to anyone but me.

I've seen a couple of spreadsheets on various threads, and its wonderful when people share them like that! But it may be that a basic spreadsheet you build yourself that has exactly the data you want with nothing else to muddy the waters might the most help to you right now. And then you can surf through all the wonderful and varied information on this site for great information to add, like 14U's great data!

{Slight pause for you to think to yourself that Lady is absolutely no help at all! :suspicious: }

Good luck!
Lady

 

[RPM]

Good Morning;

----------- Share 20dy--- 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma------ Read Below Above Rec
5/06/08 C 16.10 1379.19 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/07/08 C 15.82 1381.10 +.10 +.10 +.25 BUY

So the range that you use for Buy/Sell are also changeable? I thought they are fixed How do you determine what values they should take to compare to your daily reading?

Thanks for posting this. I am still trying to understand it tooo.

 

[luv2read]

Good Morning;

----------- Share 20dy--- 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma------ Read Below Above Rec
5/06/08 C 16.10 1379.19 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/07/08 C 15.82 1381.10 +.10 +.10 +.25 BUY

So the range that you use for Buy/Sell are also changeable? I thought they are fixed How do you determine what values they should take to compare to your daily reading?

Thanks for posting this. I am still trying to understand it tooo.

See this post from earlier.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=163427&postcount=80

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Thanks luv2read for posting my previous thread explaining the recent change in Sell Above and Buy Below parameters because of the current up trend in stocks.
Just to add a little uncertainty to the markets today there was an earthquake in China last night. Love those curveballs. Stock funds still remain above their respective 20 day moving averages so hopefully you already have positions in them. I will be looking to sell them in coming days should we move up sharply this week or if they (better not) move below their respective 20 day moving averages.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols.
The C-fund ($spx) is down a little as I write. It’s reading is -.06 and is a Buy/Hold today.
The S fund ($sml) is down slightly this morning. It’s reading is +.07 and is a Buy/Hold today.
The I-fund ($iee) is down slightly this morning. It’s current reading is -.01 and is in Buy/Hold. My concern is for the Euro which is currently under performing the US Dollar which, if continues will hinder the I fund somewhat.
The F-fund (AGG) is down this morning. It is at -.19. I don’t like the way the yield on the 10 year Treasury shot up today, and appears it will challenge new highs which would be bad for the F fund. I am putting a sell on the F-fund today as it is a special case. Also it is below it’s falling 20 day moving average which could mean a breakdown below support in coming days at around 101.25 on the chart.
Currently I am 100%-I fund with one IFT so far in May..
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!

----------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/07/08 C 15.82 1381.10 +.10 +.10 +.25 BUY
5/08/08 C 15.88 1382.95 -.11 +.10 +.25 BUY
5/09/08 C 15.77 1385.72 -.12 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 C 15.95 1389.49 -.15 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 C ------- 1392.83 -.06 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD

5/07/08 S 18.99 18.75 +.24 +.10 +.40 WAIT
5/08/08 S 19.09 18.77 -.11+.10 +.40 BUY
5/09/08 S 19.05 18.82 +.00 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 S 19.26 18.88 -.05 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 S ----- 18.94 +.07 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD

5/07/08 I 23.82 23.60 +.07 +.10 +.45 BUY-I-BOT
5/08/08 I 24.10 23.63 -.22 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/09/08 I 23.82 23.70 -.15 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 I 24.12 23.76 -.19 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 I ----- 23.82 -.01 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD

5/07/08 F 12.17 102.06 -.33 -.50 +.50 I SOLD
5/08/08 F 12.21 102.04 +.17 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/09/08 F 12.21 102.01 +.20 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/12/08 F 12.20 101.98 +.23 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/13/08 F ----- 101.96 -.19 -. 50 +.50 SELL
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Stock funds still remain above their respective 20 day moving averages so hopefully you already have positions in them. I will be looking to sell them in coming days should we move up sharply this week or if they (better not) move below their respective 20 day moving averages.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols.
The C-fund ($spx) is up as I write. It’s reading is +.04 and is a Buy/Hold today.
The S fund ($sml) ($emw is not working for some reason) is up this morning. It’s reading is +.21 and is only a Hold today, to high now to buy.
The I-fund ($iee) is up this morning. It’s current reading is -.03 and is in Buy/Hold. My concern is for the Euro which is currently under performing the US Dollar which, if continues will hinder the I fund somewhat.
The F-fund (AGG) is up this morning. It is at -.37. I don’t like the way the yield on the 10 year Treasury is moving up. I put a sell on the F-fund yesterday. Also it is below it’s falling 20 day moving average which could mean a breakdown below support in coming days at around 101.25 on the chart.
Currently I am 100%-I fund with one IFT so far in May.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!

----------- Share 20dy-----11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma -------Read Below Above Rec
5/08/08 C 15.88 1382.95 -.11 +.10 +.25 BUY
5/09/08 C 15.77 1385.72 -.12 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 C 15.95 1389.49 -.15 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 C 15.94 1392.92 -.06 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 C ------- 1395.33 +.04 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD

5/08/08 S 19.09 18.77 -.11+.10 +.40 BUY
5/09/08 S 19.05 18.82 +.00 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 S 19.26 18.88 -.05 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 S 19.38 18.94 +.07 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 S ----- 18.98 +.21 +.10 +.40 HOLD

5/08/08 I 24.10 23.63 -.22 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/09/08 I 23.82 23.70 -.15 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 I 24.12 23.76 -.19 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 I 23.96 23.82 -.01 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 I ----- 23.84 -.03 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD

5/08/08 F 12.21 102.04 +.17 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/09/08 F 12.21 102.01 +.20 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/12/08 F 12.20 101.98 +.23 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/13/08 F 12.13 101.94 -.19 -. 50 +.50 SELL
5/14/08 F ----- 101.93 -.37-.50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Stock funds still remain above their respective 20 day moving averages so hopefully you already have positions in one or all of them. I just concentrate and buy only one stock fund after trying to find the best performer. I will be looking to sell the I fund in coming days should it move up sharply this week or if should (better not) move below its respective 20 day moving average. Because of IFT restrictions I will want to stay in the I-fund as long as possible but I will not hesitate selling all or some of it once it reaches its Sell Above parameter of +.45 (if it should).
I use Stockcharts.com symbols.
The C-fund ($spx) is up as I write. It’s reading is +.01 and is a Buy/Hold today.
The S fund (DWCP @ Yahoo) is up this morning. It’s reading is +.15 and is a Hold today, to high to buy.
The I-fund ($iee) is up this morning. It’s current reading is +.04 and is a Buy/Hold. The Euro ($xeu) is up today also which should benefit the I-fund.
The F-fund (AGG) is up this morning. Its reading is at -.11 I don’t like the way the yield on the 10 year Treasury is trending up lately which could affect the AGG negatively in coming days. Also it is below it’s falling 20 day moving average which could mean a breakdown below support in coming days at around 101.25 on the chart.
Currently I am 100%-I fund with one IFT so far in May.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!

--------------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/09/08 C 15.77 1385.72 -.12 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 C 15.95 1389.49 -.15 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 C 15.94 1392.92 -.06 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 C 16.01 1395.12 +.04 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/15/08 C ----- 1397.31 +.01 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD

5/09/08 S 19.05 18.82 +.00 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 S 19.26 18.88 -.05 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 S 19.38 18.94 +.07 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 S 19.40 18.98 +.21 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/15/08 S ----- 19.02 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD

5/09/08 I 23.82 23.70 -.15 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/12/08 I 24.12 23.76 -.19 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 I 23.96 23.82 -.01 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 I 24.03 23.84 -.03 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/15/08 I ----- 23.88 +.04 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD

5/09/08 F 12.21 102.01 +.20 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/12/08 F 12.20 101.98 +.23 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/13/08 F 12.13 101.94 -.19 -. 50 +.50 SELL
5/14/08 F 12.11 101.94 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/15/08 F ----- 101.94 -.11 -.50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[pattidiva1]

I too am currently 100%-I fund with one IFT so far in May. I've been reading your account talk for awhile and find your posts most helpful. Keep up the good work!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Thanks Pattidiva1 for the kind words and encouragement. May the I-fund shower your TsP account with many $$$$$!!!!
Typical Friday with some profit taking in US markets today but the stock funds still remain above their respective 20 day moving averages so hopefully you already have positions in one or all of them. I just try to concentrate on one stock fund after finding the best performer. I will be looking to sell the I fund in coming days but I still want exposure to stocks here so moving some to the C fund today. Because of IFT restrictions I will want to stay in stocks as long as possible but I will not hesitate selling all or some once Sell Above parameters are met.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols.
The C-fund ($spx) is down as I write. It’s reading is +.08 and is a Buy/Hold today.
The S fund (DWCP) is down this morning. It’s reading is +.15 and is a Hold today, to high to buy..
The I-fund ($iee) is up 1.22% as I write this morning. It’s current reading is +.46 and is a SELL ALL OR SOME. The Euro ($xeu) is up as well helping the I fund. I have decided, as my second move for May to, go 50I, 50C as I believe the I fund (although a sell today) can move higher as it has been known to go to a +.75 when running hard like now, and move 50% to the C fund which is still a Buy/Hold as a slightly more conservative measure.
The F-fund (AGG) is down this morning. Its reading is at +.13 I don’t like the way the yield on the 10 year Treasury is moving up lately which could affect the AGG negatively in coming days.
Moving to 50I, 50C as I still want stock exposure at this time. This will be my second IFT for May. Bought the I-fund @ $23.82 per TSP share on 5/7/08. As of 5/15/08 I am #10 in the tracker with a return of +.7.05% since 3/11/08.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!

-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/12/08 C 15.95 1389.49 -.15 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 C 15.94 1392.92 -.06 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 C 16.01 1395.12 +.04 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/15/08 C 16.18 1398.02 +.01 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/16/08 C ----- 1399.52 +.08 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD

5/12/08 S 19.26 18.88 -.05 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 S 19.38 18.94 +.07 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 S 19.40 18.98 +.21 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/15/08 S 19.59 19.03 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/16/08 S ----- 19.07 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD

5/12/08 I 24.12 23.76 -.19 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/13/08 I 23.96 23.82 -.01 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 I 24.03 23.84 -.03 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/15/08 I 24.42 23.89 +.04 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/16/08 I ----- 23.94 +.46+.10 +.45 SELL ALL OR SOME

5/12/08 F 12.20 101.98 +.23 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/13/08 F 12.13 101.94 -.19 -. 50 +.50 SELL
5/14/08 F 12.11 101.94 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/15/08 F 12.19 101.96 -.11 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/16/08 F ----- 101.96 +.13 -.50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
As a recap, Friday I made my second IFT for May from 100% I to 50%C and 50%I. I did this because the I fund got to a +.46 slightly above it’s Sell Above parameter of +.45 on Friday where as the C fund was not as overvalued at a +.08. I didn’t want to go to G yet as I think the next day or two of trading we may see the short term peak appear. Because of IFT restrictions I will want to stay in the stock funds as long as possible but I will not hesitate selling all or some of them if they have a strong spike upward.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols.
The C-fund ($spx) up as I write. It’s reading is +.18 and is a Hold today, to high to buy..
The S fund (DWCP) is up this morning. It’s reading is +.26 and is a Hold today, to high to buy..
The I-fund ($iee) is up as I write this morning. It’s current reading is +.40 and is a Hold if you still own some. It’s to high to buy now. The Euro ($xeu) is down today but I think it will be up tomorrow. I decided on Friday, as my second move for May, to go 50I, 50C as I believe the I fund (although a sell all or some on Friday) can move higher as it has been known to go to a +.75 when running hard like now, and move 50% to the C fund which was still a Buy/Hold on Friday as a slightly more conservative measure. I will remain 50C, 50 I for tomorrow as well because they are crossing their respective 200day moving averages to the upside which is a great sign.
The F-fund (AGG) is up this morning. Its reading is at +.14 I don’t like the way the yield on the 10 year Treasury is moving up lately which could affect the AGG negatively in coming days.
I am currently 50%C and 50%I and remaining the same today. This was my second IFT for May. As of 5/16/08 I am #8 in the tracker with a return of +8.10% since 3/11/08.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!

---------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/13/08 C 15.94 1392.92 -.06 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 C 16.01 1395.12 +.04 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/15/08 C 16.18 1398.02 +.01 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/16/08 C 16.20 1399.77 +.08 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/19/08 C ----- 1401.86 +.18 +.10 +.25 HOLD

5/13/08 S 19.38 18.94 +.07 +.10 +.40 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 S 19.40 18.98 +.21 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/15/08 S 19.59 19.03 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/16/08 S 19.64 19.07 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/19/08 S ----- 19.11 +.26 +.10 +.40 HOLD

5/13/08 I 23.96 23.82 -.01 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/14/08 I 24.03 23.84 -.03 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/15/08 I 24.42 23.89 +.04 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/16/08 I 24.66 23.94 +.46 +.10 +.45 SELL ALL OR SOME
5/19/08 I ----- 23.99 +.40 +.10 +.45 HOLD

5/13/08 F 12.13 101.94 -.19 -. 50 +.50 SELL
5/14/08 F 12.11 101.94 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/15/08 F 12.19 101.96 -.11 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/16/08 F 12.19 101.96 +.13 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/19/08 F ----- 101.96 + .14 -.50 +.50 WAIT

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
As a recap, Friday I made my second IFT for May from 100% I to 50%C and 50%I. I did this because the I fund got to a +.46 slightly above it’s Sell Above parameter of +.45 on Friday where as the C fund was not as overvalued at a +.08. We may have seen the short term peak yesterday which may have been a good day to sell but at 11am the readings were not quite at the sell points. I’ve decided to go the G fund today from 50C, 50I mainly because the daily MACD’s look very toppy and the markets may try to rally this afternoon. I will sit out the rest of the month in G and see how things develop for June.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols.
The C-fund ($spx) down as I write. It’s reading is -.02. I’ve decided to sell my 50% position today, looking toppy.
The S fund (DWCP) is down this morning. It’s reading is -.08. I believe the S&P500 and Dow are topping out here so I would be a seller of the S-fund.
The I-fund ($iee) is down as I write this morning. It’s current reading is +.06. I’ve decided to sell my 50% stake and go to G for the rest of the month. Should the US markets move down here I believe the I-fund will also move down.
The F-fund (AGG) is up this morning. Its reading is at +.22 I don’t like the way the yield on the 10 year Treasury is moving up lately which could affect the AGG negatively in coming days.
Today I will be moving to 100%G for the rest of the month. This will be my third IFT for May. As of 5/19/08 I am #7 in the tracker with a return of +.8.17% since 3/11/08.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!

-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/14/08 C 16.01 1395.12 +.04 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/15/08 C 16.18 1398.02 +.01 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/16/08 C 16.20 1399.77 +.08 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/19/08 C 16.22 1401.69 +.18 +.10 +.25 HOLD
5/20/08 C ----- 1403.77 -.02 +.10 +.25 I’M SELLING

5/14/08 S 19.40 18.98 +.21 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/15/08 S 19.59 19.03 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/16/08 S 19.64 19.07 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/19/08 S 19.60 19.11 +.26 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/20/08 S ----- 19.15 -.08 +.10 +.40 I WOULD SELL

5/14/08 I 24.03 23.84 -.03 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/15/08 I 24.42 23.89 +.04 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/16/08 I 24.66 23.94 +.46 +.10 +.45 SELL ALL OR SOME
5/19/08 I 24.66 23.98 +.40 +.10 +.45 HOLD
5/20/08 I ----- 24.03 +.06 +.10 +.45 I’M SELLING

5/14/08 F 12.11 101.94 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/15/08 F 12.19 101.96 -.11 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/16/08 F 12.19 101.96 +.13 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/19/08 F 12.21 101.96 + .14 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/20/08 F ----- 101.96 +.22 -. 50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Guest2]

First time I've seen the $IEE Index. I've been using EFA forever.
Thanks for sharing your information with us and giving me some
new stuff to look at.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Squalebear I’ve been using $iee for quite some time. I think it factors in the currency fluctuations so I like it better than the EFA.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP..
The C-fund ($spx) reading is at -.07 and is a wait for lower prices.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.02 and a wait for lower prices.
The I-fund ($iee) reading is at -.11 and is a wait for lower prices.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.23 and is a wait for lower prices.
I am currently 100% G for the rest of May. As of 5/20/08 I am #10 in the tracker with a return of +.7.21% since 3/11/08. I believe the stock markets are in a topping phase and can experience a nasty sell off from here.
I have adjusted the Buy Below parameters in the stock funds to reflect my thinking of a possible nasty sell off coming. They would allow us to buy at much lower prices should I be right.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!

-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/15/08 C 16.18 1398.02 +.01 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/16/08 C 16.20 1399.77 +.08 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/19/08 C 16.22 1401.69 +.18 +.10 +.25 HOLD
5/20/08 C 16.07 1403.56 -.02 +.10 +.25 I’M SELLING
5/21/08 C ----- 1405.25 -.07 -.25 +.25 WAIT

5/15/08 S 19.59 19.03 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/16/08 S 19.64 19.07 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/19/08 S 19.60 19.11 +.26 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/20/08 S 19.54 19.16 -.08 +.10 +.40 I WOULD SELL
5/21/08 S ----- 19.21 -.02 -.40 +.40 WAIT

5/15/08 I 24.42 23.89 +.04 +.10 +.45 BUY/HOLD
5/16/08 I 24.66 23.94 +.46 +.10 +.45 SELL ALL OR SOME
5/19/08 I 24.66 23.98 +.40 +.10 +.45 HOLD
5/20/08 I 24.45 24.02 +.06 +.10 +.45 I’M SELLING
5/21/08 I ----- 24.06 -.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT

5/15/08 F 12.19 101.96 -.11 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/16/08 F 12.19 101.96 +.13 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/19/08 F 12.21 101.96 + .14 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/20/08 F 12.24 101.97 +.22 -. 50 +.50 WAIT
5/21/08 F ----- 101.98 +.23 -.50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Guest2]

Thanks !

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP..
The C-fund ($spx) reading is at -.23 and is a wait for lower prices. Very close to a buy but no dice. Below it’s 20 day moving average now.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.27 and a wait for lower prices.
The I-fund ($iee) reading is at -.38 and is a wait for lower prices.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.36 and is a wait for lower prices.
I am currently 100% G for the rest of May. As of 5/20/08 I am #10 in the tracker with a return of +.7.21% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for a day or two, I believe the stock markets are in a topping phase and can experience a nasty sell off from here.
I have adjusted the Buy Below parameters in the stock funds to reflect my thinking of a possible nasty sell off coming. They would allow us to buy at much lower prices should I be right.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/16/08 C 16.20 1399.77 +.08 +.10 +.25 BUY/HOLD
5/19/08 C 16.22 1401.69 +.18 +.10 +.25 HOLD
5/20/08 C 16.07 1403.56 -.02 +.10 +.25 I’M SELLING
5/21/08 C 15.81 1404.10 -.07 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/22/08 C ----- 1404.44 -.23 -.25 +.25 WAIT

5/16/08 S 19.64 19.07 +.15 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/19/08 S 19.60 19.11 +.26 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/20/08 S 19.54 19.16 -.08 +.10 +.40 I WOULD SELL
5/21/08 S 19.25 19.19 -.02 -.40 +.40 WAIT
5/22/08 S ----- 19.22 -.27 -.40 +.40 WAIT

5/16/08 I 24.66 23.94 +.46 +.10 +.45 SELL ALL OR SOME
5/19/08 I 24.66 23.98 +.40 +.10 +.45 HOLD
5/20/08 I 24.45 24.02 +.06 +.10 +.45 I’M SELLING
5/21/08 I 24.12 24.04 -.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/22/08 I ----- 24.08 -.38 -.45 +.45 WAIT

5/16/08 F 12.19 101.96 +.13 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/19/08 F 12.21 101.96 + .14 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/20/08 F 12.24 101.97 +.22 -. 50 +.50 WAIT
5/21/08 F 12.21 101.97 +.23 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/22/08 F ----- 101.97 -.36 -.50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP..
The C-fund ($spx) reading is at -.38 and is a buy however my longer term chart is negative so if you do buy, it would only be a hold for a few days. There’s also a greater chance now that prices will continue to fall lower so it is a very risky buy here. C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average as well.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.40 is close enough for a buy however longer term chart is falling and negative predicting lower prices ahead. Buy if you dare very risky here!
The I-fund ($iee) reading is at -.23 and is a wait for lower prices.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.12 and is a wait for lower prices.
I am currently 100% G for the rest of May. As of 5/20/08 I am #10 in the tracker with a return of +.7.21% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for a day or two, I believe the stock markets are in a topping phase and can experience a nasty sell off from here. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below parameters in the stock funds to reflect my thinking of a possible nasty sell off coming. They would allow us to buy at much lower prices should I be right.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/19/08 C 16.22 1401.69 +.18 +.10 +.25 HOLD
5/20/08 C 16.07 1403.56 -.02 +.10 +.25 I’M SELLING
5/21/08 C 15.81 1404.10 -.07 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/22/08 C 15.86 1404.38 -.23 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/23/08 C ----- 1403.68 +.38 -.25 +.25 BUY IF YOU DARE!

5/19/08 S 19.60 19.11 +.26 +.10 +.40 HOLD
5/20/08 S 19.54 19.16 -.08 +.10 +.40 I WOULD SELL
5/21/08 S 19.25 19.19 -.02 -.40 +.40 WAIT
5/22/08 S 19.34 19.22 -.27 -.40 +.40 WAIT
5/23/08 S ----- 19.23 -.40 -.40 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!

5/19/08 I 24.66 23.98 +.40 +.10 +.45 HOLD
5/20/08 I 24.45 24.02 +.06 +.10 +.45 I’M SELLING
5/21/08 I 24.12 24.04 -.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/22/08 I 24.37 24.09 -.38 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/23/08 I ----- 24.12 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT

5/19/08 F 12.21 101.96 + .14 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/20/08 F 12.24 101.97 +.22 -. 50 +.50 WAIT
5/21/08 F 12.21 101.97 +.23 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/22/08 F 12.15 101.96 -.36 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/23/08 F ----- 101.97 -.12 -.50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!