Here's14U's Account Talk

[EW_ret]

.... I have made three IFT's for this month so I guess I'm shut off at this time (unless I go to all G) but I can still report the 11am oscillator readings to you.
Good Luck!

I would be careful about making that fourth IFT this month, if you received the January warning letter from TSP. What did the January letter mean by "no more than three IFTs per month"? It means the FRTIB is applying a different set of "interim rules" to the "frequent traders". Notice that the third paragraph of first warning letter (1-24-2008) states in its final sentence, " ... and (2) interim measures designed to lower trade volume in the meantime." My understanding is that the "interim rules" are no more that three IFTs per month until the new automated system is in place. So if you received that first warning letter, beware you are allowed at most three IFTs a month until the new automated restrictions are in place. Only then will you be allowed unlimited IFTs back into G fund, after the first two IFTs.

 

[Asylum]

So, do you get a 'warning letter' the month before they start looking at your reallocations?

Then, if you bust 3 IFT's the following month, they restrict your access?

B-?

 

[Heres14U]

Thanks Tracker Gregg. I will refrain from trading the rest of the month. I can live with the F and G split as I think the rest of this month may be tough for the C, S, and I funds. The F-fund should benefit as the 10 year Treasury Bond Yield is still falling. I will continue to post my oscillator readings however for the benefit of members who are watching the system and getting familiar with it.

 

[EW_ret]

So, do you get a 'warning letter' the month before they start looking at your reallocations?

Then, if you bust 3 IFT's the following month, they restrict your access?

B-?

That appears how the new sheriff (Mr. Greg Long) is handling it. What a waste of money by someone who wants to "Elliot Spitzer" a name for himself. I received the certified letter today, at a cost of $5.50. That is more than the total account costs for an entire year. That is not good management, but a waste of our money! The new sheriff just wants to set an example, and make an name for himself as the great protector of the TSP. I wonder how many hundreds of certified letters were mailed at $5.50 a pop? If the new automated restrictions are to be implement by April 30th, does this waste of money make sense?

I plan on making a IFT every day until the IRA Rollover I initiated today is complete. I have no plans to take this crap, and I have voted with my feet to move all my TSP to my Vanguard Rollover IRA. At Vanguard I know the rules, and I am allowed to manage my accounts.

 

[Scout333]

EW what are the rules for making the the rollover to an IRA? Age limitations, etc.? Do you have to be retired? Where can I find the rules?
Thanks,

 

[EW_ret]

EW what are the rules for making the the rollover to an IRA? Age limitations, etc.? Do you have to be retired? Where can I find the rules?
Thanks,

You must be retired, resign, or otherwise be separated from federal employment, to have access to your TSP account. Only then can you rollover/transfer your TSP money to an IRA, or employer sponsored retirement plan. I'm fortunate to be retired so I have access to my TSP money.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The F-fund closed yesterday at a reading of +.88, well above it’s Sell parameter of +.50. As a result there is some profit taking going on in AGG this morning. Yesterday would have been a good day to sell some shares had we known AGG was going to be strong in the afternoon. It’s okay though, the F-fund still remains in an short term up trend. If you can do another IFT for March the 11am reading is still overbought today and is in Sell mode. Either sell all or a portion whatever you would like to do.
Regarding C, S, and I funds; 11am Reads are all positive, Rule #1 Do Not Buy Positive Readings, only Negative Readings. So I’m staying with WAIT Recommendations on these. We’ll see how things go later on in the week. Good Luck to all!


----------Fund 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Read Below Above Recmndtn
3/14/08 C -.01 -.35 +.25 WAIT
3/17/08 C -.14 -.35 +.25 WAIT
3/18/08 C +.19 -.35 +.25 WAIT

3/14/08 S .04 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/17/08 S -.24 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/18/08 S +.14 -.50 +.40 WAIT

3/14/08 I .27 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/17/08 I -.38 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/18/08 I +.19 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/14/08 F .66 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/17/08 F +.37 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF STILL IN
3/18/08 F +.62 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
This morning the C-fund & F-funds are in the Sell zone with readings above their respective Sell Above parameters. The S and I funds are still on WAIT, they are very risky now. If the C-fund or SP500 continues down this morning there could be a problem for the S and I funds in the days ahead. The S&P500 needs to rise above 1350 to break the downtrend. Good Luck!


------------11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Read Below Above Recmndtn
3/17/08 C -.14 -.35 +.25 WAIT
3/18/08 C +.19 -.35 +.25 WAIT
3/19/08 C +.33 -.35 +.25 SELL ALL OR SOME

3/17/08 S -.24 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/18/08 S +.14 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/19/08 S +.28 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/17/08 I -.38 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/18/08 I +.19 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/19/08 I +.36 -.50 +.50 WAIT

3/17/08 F +.37 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF STILL IN
3/18/08 F +.62 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/19/08 F +.67 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The I-fund has entered the Buy zone with a -.64 reading this morning well below it’s Buy Below -.50 parameter. Realize that the next couple of trading days could also be Buy days as well. Either Buy some or all. The F-fund again is in the Sell zone with a +.61 reading well above it’s Sell Above Parameter of +.50. Sell all or some more. The C and S funds are at neutral readings neither Buys or Sells at this time. I’m currently 50-G, 50-F with no IFT’s available for the rest of the month. Good Luck!


----------Fund 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Read Below Above Recmndtn
3/18/08 C +.19 -.35 +.25 WAIT
3/19/08 C +.33 -.35 +.25 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/20/08 C +.17 -.35 +.25 WAIT

3/18/08 S +.14 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/19/08 S +.28 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/20/08 S +.05 -.50 +.40 WAIT

3/18/08 I +.19 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/19/08 I +.36 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/20/08 I -.64 -.50 +.50 BUY SOME OR ALL

3/18/08 F +.62 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/19/08 F +.67 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/20/08 F +.61 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The I-fund entered the Buy zone last Thursday at the 11:00 am reading with a -.64 well below it’s Buy Below -.50 parameter. Unfortunately, because of the TSP closed on Friday it was not possible to buy the I-fund on Friday. The best we can do is enter the I-fund at COB today at whatever price it closes at.
C and S funds have very high readings today which suggests some profit taking for tomorrow.
F-fund has come down today and sitting on its 50 day moving average and is WAIT for now. Hopefully you sold the last few days. I have no IFT’s available for the rest of the month as I have already done three. I’m currently at 50-G, 50-F. Good Luck!


----------Fund 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Read Below Above Recmndtn
3/19/08 C +.33 -.35 +.25 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/20/08 C +.17 -.35 +.25 WAIT
3/24/08 C +.47 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/19/08 S +.28 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/20/08 S +.05 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/24/08 S +.55 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/19/08 I +.36 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/20/08 I -.64 -.50 +.50 BUY SOME OR ALL
3/24/08 I -.10 -.50 +.50 HOLD

3/19/08 F +.67 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/20/08 F +.61 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/24/08 F +.00 -.50 +.50 WAIT

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The I-fund entered the Buy zone last Thursday at the 11:00 am reading with a -.64 well below it’s Buy Below -.50 parameter. Unfortunately, because of the TSP closed on Friday it was not possible to buy the I-fund on Friday. It could have been purchased at Monday’s close of $22.03 however. Today though it is a sell at a positive +.82 well above it’s Sell Above +.50 parameter. Sell all or some today.
C and S funds have very high readings again today and are risky buys today.
The F-fund reading is neutral and is still in Wait mode. I have already done three IFT‘s this month so I remain 50G, 50F. Good Luck!


----------Fund 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Read Below Above Recmndtn
3/20/08 C +.17 -.35 +.25 WAIT
3/24/08 C +.47 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/25/08 C +.35 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/20/08 S +.05 -.50 +.40 WAIT
3/24/08 S +.55 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/25/08 S +.51 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/20/08 I -.64 -.50 +.50 BUY SOME OR ALL
3/24/08 I -.10 -.50 +.50 HOLD
3/25/08 I +.82 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME

3/20/08 F +.61 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/24/08 F +.00 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/25/08 F +.02 -.50 +.50 WAIT

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The I-fund entered the Buy zone last Thursday at the 11:00 am reading with a -.64 well below it’s Buy Below -.50 parameter. Unfortunately, because of the TSP closed on Friday it was not possible to buy the I-fund on Friday. However, it could have been purchased at Monday’s close of $22.03. Tuesday it closed at $22.36, but yesterday at 11am it was a Sell at +.82 well above its +.50 parameter. Today it is still overbought and a Sell.
C and S funds had very high readings yesterday at 11am signaling lower prices ahead. Sure enough they are currently heading down and overbought.
The F-fund reading is neutral and is still in Wait mode.
I have already done three IFT‘s this month so I remain 50G, 50F. Good Luck!


----------Fund 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Read Below Above Recmndtn
3/24/08 C +.47 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/25/08 C +.35 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/26/08 C +.31 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/24/08 S +.55 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/25/08 S +.51 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/26/08 S +.48 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/24/08 I -.10 -.50 +.50 HOLD
3/25/08 I +.82 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/26/08 I +.58 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME

3/24/08 F +.00 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/25/08 F +.02 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/26/08 F +.15 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I have decided to include daily TSP share closing prices to the table below in order to compare daily Recommendations to actual closing TSP Share price performance.
The I-fund is still in the Sell zone for the third consecutive day. It is still overbought.
C and S funds had very high readings and are signaling lower prices ahead. Sure enough they are heading down again today.
The F-fund reading at -.37 is heading toward it’s Buy Below -.50 parameter but not there yet so it is still a Wait.
I have already done three IFT‘s this month so I remain 50G, 50F. Good Luck!


----------Fund Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
3/25/08 C 15.33 +.35 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/26/08 C 15.20 +.31 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/27/08 C *****+.19 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/25/08 S 18.22 +.51 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/26/08 S 18.12 +.48 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/27/08 S *****+.30 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/25/08 I 22.36 +.82 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/26/08 I 22.52 +.58 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/27/08 I *****+.65 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME

3/25/08 F 12.16 +.02 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/26/08 F 12.17 +.15 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/27/08 F *****-.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I have decided to include daily TSP share closing prices to the table below in order to compare daily Recommendations to actual closing TSP Share price performance.
The I-fund is still overbought and is now a Wait for lower prices..
C and S funds are trying to rally this morning, but so far no go. The readings are still positive so there is still a good chance for lower prices in the trading days ahead.
The F-fund reading at -.27 is heading toward it’s Buy Below -.50 parameter but not there yet so it is still a Wait for lower prices.
There is no guarantee that these funds will hit their respective Buy Below parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for truly good negative readings before buying. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market.
I have already done three IFT‘s this month so I remain 50G, 50F. Good Luck!

------Fund Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
3/25/08 C 15.33 +.35 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/26/08 C 15.20 +.31 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/27/08 C 15.03 +.19 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/28/08 C *****+.11 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/25/08 S 18.22 +.51 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/26/08 S 18.12 +.48 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/27/08 S 17.93 +.30 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/28/08 S *****+.21 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/25/08 I 22.36 +.82 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/26/08 I 22.52 +.58 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/27/08 I 22.48 +.65 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/28/08 I **** +.48 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/25/08 F 12.16 +.02 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/26/08 F 12.17 +.15 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/27/08 F 12.15 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/28/08 F ****** -.27 -.50 +.25 WAIT

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Asylum]

I always look forward to your analysis.

Much appreciated!!!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Thank you Asylum for the kind words. Let this system be another tool for making informed TSP IFT decisions.
C and S fund readings are now negative but not negative enough to trigger buy recommendations. There is still a chance for lower prices ahead.
The I-fund continues to be overbought and is now a Wait for lower prices.
The F-fund reading at +.06 is neutral. We did hit a -.37 on 3/27/08 but it wasn‘t quite good enough for a buy signal. The F-fund may move up a little more now if stocks are weak allowing a possible move from F into C or S should a buy signal show up in C or S in coming days.
I changed some parameters in the C and I funds to reflect less volatility lately.
There is no guarantee that these funds will hit their respective Buy Below parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market.
I have already done three IFT‘s this month so I remain 50G, 50F. Good Luck!

----------Fund Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
3/25/08 C 15.33 +.35 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/26/08 C 15.20 +.31 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/27/08 C 15.03 +.19 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/28/08 C 14.91 +.11 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/31/08 C ******-.07 -.25 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/25/08 S 18.22 +.51 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/26/08 S 18.12 +.48 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/27/08 S 17.93 +.30 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/28/08 S 17.79 +.21 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/31/08 S ***** -.04 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/25/08 I 22.36 +.82 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/26/08 I 22.52 +.58 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/27/08 I 22.48 +.65 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/28/08 I 22.48 +.48 -.50 +.50 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/31/08 I *****+.27 -.45 +.45 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/25/08 F 12.16 +.02 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/26/08 F 12.17 +.15 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/27/08 F 12.15 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/28/08 F 12.18 -.27 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/31/08 F *****+.06 -.50 +.50 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[RonUSPSretired]

EW,I've never talked on the threads before, but caught your intended rollover to Vanguard. I'm also disenchanted since the restrictions. Can you provide info that would assist me in researching how to roll into and use Vanguard?

 

[Guest2]

EW,I've never talked on the threads before, but caught your intended rollover to Vanguard. I'm also disenchanted since the restrictions. Can you provide info that would assist me in researching how to roll into and use Vanguard?

The following thread, you'll find helpful;
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4216

 

[EW_ret]

EW,I've never talked on the threads before, but caught your intended rollover to Vanguard. I'm also disenchanted since the restrictions. Can you provide info that would assist me in researching how to roll into and use Vanguard?

I responded in my account talk thread, EW_ret's Account Talk .

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
C and S funds are rallying this morning but getting close to their upper Bollinger band resistance levels. Not good places to buy. Although this rally may last a couple more days I believe prices will come back down to better buying price levels.
The I-fund at +.57 is a Sell today well above it’s Sell above parameter.
The F-fund reading at -.70 is a Buy today. Lower price of AGG could be due to a dividend payout today but the yield on the ten year treasury is way up today also causing the AGG to be down in price too.
There is no guarantee that these funds will hit their respective Buy Below parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market.
I will remain 50G, 50F for now. I believe a better opportunity to buy stocks will come after this rally peters out. Good Luck!

----------- Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
3/26/08 C 15.20 +.31 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/27/08 C 15.03 +.19 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/28/08 C 14.91 +.11 -.35 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/31/08 C 14.99 -.07 -.25 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
4/1/08 C ***** +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/26/08 S 18.12 +.48 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/27/08 S 17.93 +.30 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/28/08 S 17.79 +.21 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/31/08 S 17.91 -.04 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
4/1/08 S ***** +.23 -.50 +.40 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY

3/26/08 I 22.52 +.58 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/27/08 I 22.48 +.65 -.50 +.50 SELL ALL OR SOME
3/28/08 I 22.48 +.48 -.50 +.50 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
3/31/08 I 22.54 +.27 -.45 +.45 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
4/1/08 I ***** +.57 -.45 +.45 SELL ALL OR SOME

3/26/08 F 12.17 +.15 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/27/08 F 12.15 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT-NEUTRAL
3/28/08 F 12.18 -.27 -.50 +.50 WAIT
3/31/08 F 12.20 .06 -.50 +.50 WAIT TO HIGH TO BUY
4/1/08 F ***** -.70 -.50 +.50 BUY ALL OR SOME
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the CURRENT READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!