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Here's14U's Account Talk
- Thread starter Heres14U
- Start date
Heres14U
Member
Good Morning;
Thank you SteveTSP for the kind words. Hopefully I can help you and others make some money in the markets.
The C-fund is about unchanged so far today. It is currently at about +.13 and is a Wait for lower prices.
The S fund is also about unchanged today. Today it sits at about +.18 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is up this morning. Today it sits at about +.15 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund is down slightly this morning. The AGG chart is looking bearish with lower highs so whether the support area around 101.25 will hold I‘m not sure.. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. Today its reading is about -.26 and is still a Hold for higher prices.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/22/08 C 15.61 +.17 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/23/08 C 15.66 +.19 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/24/08 C 15.76 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/25/08 C 15.86 +.10 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 C ------- +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/22/08 S 18.55 +.11 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/23/08 S 18.60 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/24/08 S 18.76 -.11 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/25/08 S 18.94 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/28/08 S ------- +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/22/08 I 23.64 +.21 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.68 +.06 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/24/08 I 23.45 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/25/08 I 23.73 +.04 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/28/08 I ------- +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/22/08 F 12.15 -.11 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/23/08 F 12.15 -.12 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/24/08 F 12.09 -.27 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/25/08 F 12.08 -.24 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/28/08 F ------- -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!
Thank you SteveTSP for the kind words. Hopefully I can help you and others make some money in the markets.
The C-fund is about unchanged so far today. It is currently at about +.13 and is a Wait for lower prices.
The S fund is also about unchanged today. Today it sits at about +.18 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is up this morning. Today it sits at about +.15 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund is down slightly this morning. The AGG chart is looking bearish with lower highs so whether the support area around 101.25 will hold I‘m not sure.. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. Today its reading is about -.26 and is still a Hold for higher prices.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/22/08 C 15.61 +.17 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/23/08 C 15.66 +.19 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/24/08 C 15.76 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/25/08 C 15.86 +.10 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 C ------- +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/22/08 S 18.55 +.11 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/23/08 S 18.60 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/24/08 S 18.76 -.11 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/25/08 S 18.94 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/28/08 S ------- +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/22/08 I 23.64 +.21 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.68 +.06 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/24/08 I 23.45 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/25/08 I 23.73 +.04 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/28/08 I ------- +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/22/08 F 12.15 -.11 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/23/08 F 12.15 -.12 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/24/08 F 12.09 -.27 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/25/08 F 12.08 -.24 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/28/08 F ------- -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!
Last edited:
luv2read
Active member
Thank you for providing this every morning. One correction: F-fund on 4/17/08 was $12.11.
Heres14U
Member
Good Morning;
The C-fund is down today as projected. It’s current reading is at about +.01 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here.
The S fund is also down today as projected. Today it’s current reading is at about +.06 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is also down today as projected. Today it’s current reading is -.08 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down more before buying it.
The F-fund is up today as projected. It is at about +.21 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/23/08 C 15.66 +.19 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/24/08 C 15.76 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/25/08 C 15.86 +.10 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 C 15.85 +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 C ------- +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/23/08 S 18.60 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/24/08 S 18.76 -.11 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/25/08 S 18.94 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/28/08 S 18.99 +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 S ------- +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.68 +.06 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/24/08 I 23.45 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/25/08 I 23.73 +.04 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/28/08 I 23.89 +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 I ------- -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 F 12.15 -.12 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/24/08 F 12.09 -.27 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/25/08 F 12.08 -.24 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/28/08 F 12.12 -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/29/08 F ------- +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!
The C-fund is down today as projected. It’s current reading is at about +.01 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here.
The S fund is also down today as projected. Today it’s current reading is at about +.06 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is also down today as projected. Today it’s current reading is -.08 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down more before buying it.
The F-fund is up today as projected. It is at about +.21 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/23/08 C 15.66 +.19 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/24/08 C 15.76 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/25/08 C 15.86 +.10 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 C 15.85 +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 C ------- +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/23/08 S 18.60 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/24/08 S 18.76 -.11 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/25/08 S 18.94 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/28/08 S 18.99 +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 S ------- +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.68 +.06 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/24/08 I 23.45 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/25/08 I 23.73 +.04 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/28/08 I 23.89 +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 I ------- -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 F 12.15 -.12 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/24/08 F 12.09 -.27 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/25/08 F 12.08 -.24 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/28/08 F 12.12 -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/29/08 F ------- +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day.
Good Luck to you all!
Heres14U
Member
Good Morning;
The C-fund is up today. It’s current reading is at about +.03 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund is also up today. Today it’s current reading is at about +.10 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is also up today. Today it’s current reading sits is at about +.01 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund is up today as projected. It is at about +.13 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. It is in the process of trying to get above its 20 day moving average has a short term double bottom in place.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/24/08 C 15.76 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/25/08 C 15.86 +.10 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 C 15.85 +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 C 15.79 +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 C ------- +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/24/08 S 18.76 -.11 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/25/08 S 18.94 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/28/08 S 18.99 +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 S 18.88 +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 S ------- +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/24/08 I 23.45 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/25/08 I 23.73 +.04 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/30/08 I 23.89 +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 I 23.77 -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I ------- +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/24/08 F 12.09 -.27 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/25/08 F 12.08 -.24 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/28/08 F 12.12 -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/29/08 F 12.13 +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/30/08 F ------- +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
The C-fund is up today. It’s current reading is at about +.03 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund is also up today. Today it’s current reading is at about +.10 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is also up today. Today it’s current reading sits is at about +.01 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund is up today as projected. It is at about +.13 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. It is in the process of trying to get above its 20 day moving average has a short term double bottom in place.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/24/08 C 15.76 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/25/08 C 15.86 +.10 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 C 15.85 +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 C 15.79 +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 C ------- +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/24/08 S 18.76 -.11 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/25/08 S 18.94 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/28/08 S 18.99 +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 S 18.88 +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 S ------- +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/24/08 I 23.45 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/25/08 I 23.73 +.04 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/30/08 I 23.89 +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 I 23.77 -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I ------- +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/24/08 F 12.09 -.27 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/25/08 F 12.08 -.24 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/28/08 F 12.12 -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/29/08 F 12.13 +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/30/08 F ------- +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Heres14U
Member
Good Morning;
The C-fund is up today. It’s current reading is at about +.02 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund is also up today. Today it’s current reading is at about +.03 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is down today. Today it’s current reading is at about -.26 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund is down today. It is at about +.26 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. It managed to get above its 20 day moving average and may get up to 103.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Staying 100% F-fund at this time.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/25/08 C 15.86 +.10 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 C 15.85 +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 C 15.79 +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 C 15.73 +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/01/08 C ------- -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/25/08 S 18.94 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/28/08 S 18.99 +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 S 18.88 +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 S 18.86 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/01/08 S ------- +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/25/08 I 23.73 +.04 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/30/08 I 23.89 +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 I 23.77 -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.79 +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/01/08 I ------- -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/25/08 F 12.08 -.24 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/28/08 F 12.12 -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/29/08 F 12.13 +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/30/08 F 12.18 +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/01/08 F ------- +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
The C-fund is up today. It’s current reading is at about +.02 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund is also up today. Today it’s current reading is at about +.03 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is down today. Today it’s current reading is at about -.26 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund is down today. It is at about +.26 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. It managed to get above its 20 day moving average and may get up to 103.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Staying 100% F-fund at this time.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/25/08 C 15.86 +.10 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 C 15.85 +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 C 15.79 +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 C 15.73 +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/01/08 C ------- -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/25/08 S 18.94 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/28/08 S 18.99 +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 S 18.88 +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 S 18.86 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/01/08 S ------- +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/25/08 I 23.73 +.04 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/30/08 I 23.89 +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 I 23.77 -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.79 +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/01/08 I ------- -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/25/08 F 12.08 -.24 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/28/08 F 12.12 -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/29/08 F 12.13 +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/30/08 F 12.18 +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/01/08 F ------- +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Heres14U
Member
Stockcharts was showing the F-fund down -.29 this morning whereas Yahoo was showing it up some. I go by stockcharts. It closed down -.50 there. The yield on the ten year treasury was down .10 at stockcharts ($tnx). I think the reason the AGG was down so much at stockcharts was because it may have paid its monthly dividend today and the AGG wasn't adjusted for it at stockcharts. Maybe Yahoo charts were adjusted for it.
Heres14U
Member
Good Morning;
I have an appointment this morning, so can only give you the reads from yesterday’s closes of the 4 funds. This morning the futures are up modestly, we may have a sell off this afternoon IMO.
The C-fund was up yesterday. It’s reading is +.16 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund was also up yesterday. It’s reading is +.26 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund was up yesterday. It’s current reading is +.03 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund (AGG) was down yesterday but the TSP share price was up one cent probably because of the monthly dividend declared and credited to the share price. It is at +.09 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. It managed to get above its 20 day moving average and may get up to 103.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Staying 100% F-fund at this time.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/28/08 C 15.85 +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 C 15.79 +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 C 15.73 +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/01/08 C 16.00 -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/02/08 C ------- +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 S 18.99 +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 S 18.88 +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 S 18.86 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/01/08 S 19.13 +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/02/08 S ------- +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 I 23.89 +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 I 23.77 -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.79 +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/01/08 I 23.89 -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/02/08 I ------- +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/28/08 F 12.12 -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/29/08 F 12.13 +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/30/08 F 12.18 +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/01/08 F 12.19 +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/02/08 F ------- +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
I have an appointment this morning, so can only give you the reads from yesterday’s closes of the 4 funds. This morning the futures are up modestly, we may have a sell off this afternoon IMO.
The C-fund was up yesterday. It’s reading is +.16 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund was also up yesterday. It’s reading is +.26 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund was up yesterday. It’s current reading is +.03 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund (AGG) was down yesterday but the TSP share price was up one cent probably because of the monthly dividend declared and credited to the share price. It is at +.09 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. It managed to get above its 20 day moving average and may get up to 103.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Staying 100% F-fund at this time.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/28/08 C 15.85 +.13 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 C 15.79 +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 C 15.73 +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/01/08 C 16.00 -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/02/08 C ------- +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/28/08 S 18.99 +.18 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 S 18.88 +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 S 18.86 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/01/08 S 19.13 +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/02/08 S ------- +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 I 23.89 +.15 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 I 23.77 -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.79 +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/01/08 I 23.89 -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/02/08 I ------- +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/28/08 F 12.12 -.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/29/08 F 12.13 +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/30/08 F 12.18 +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/01/08 F 12.19 +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/02/08 F ------- +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Heres14U
Member
Good Morning;
The C-fund is down a little this morning. It’s reading is +.08 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund is also down a little this morning. It’s reading is +.08 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is up this morning. It’s current reading is +.12 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund (AGG) is down a little this morning. It is at -.07 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. It managed to get above its 20 day moving average and may get up to 103.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Staying 100% F-fund at this time.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/29/08 C 15.79 +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 C 15.73 +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/01/08 C 16.00 -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/02/08 C 16.05 +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/05/08 C ------- +.08 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 S 18.88 +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 S 18.86 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/01/08 S 19.13 +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/02/08 S 19.12 +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/05/08 S ------- +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 I 23.77 -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.79 +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/01/08 I 23.89 -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/02/08 I 24.01 +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/05/08 I ------- +.12 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 F 12.13 +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/30/08 F 12.18 +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/01/08 F 12.19 +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/02/08 F 12.16 +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/05/08 F ------- -.07 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
The C-fund is down a little this morning. It’s reading is +.08 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund is also down a little this morning. It’s reading is +.08 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is up this morning. It’s current reading is +.12 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund (AGG) is down a little this morning. It is at -.07 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11. It managed to get above its 20 day moving average and may get up to 103.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Staying 100% F-fund at this time.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/29/08 C 15.79 +.01 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 C 15.73 +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/01/08 C 16.00 -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/02/08 C 16.05 +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/05/08 C ------- +.08 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/29/08 S 18.88 +.06 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/30/08 S 18.86 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/01/08 S 19.13 +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/02/08 S 19.12 +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/05/08 S ------- +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/29/08 I 23.77 -.08 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.79 +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/01/08 I 23.89 -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/02/08 I 24.01 +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/05/08 I ------- +.12 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/29/08 F 12.13 +.21 -.50 +.50 HOLD
4/30/08 F 12.18 +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/01/08 F 12.19 +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/02/08 F 12.16 +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/05/08 F ------- -.07 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Here's14U,
Some words of acknowledgement for your system. If this keeps up, you will have shown that you have a viable technical system to keep an eye on. Last Friday the S&P 500 went as high as 1422.72, but it was only a failed attempt to rise, and it closed at 1413.90. This is IMO, within the range of expectations that you set out (the zone between 1380-1410). We seem to be in a correction. We shall see what happens next. Today the cash futures were very negative before the markets opened. Oil keeps a stubborn, and unacceptable rise, and we are still in a bear market. There are news of terrorists threatening oil fields and thus the oil supply, and so forth.
Technical analysis (TA) is a combination of art and science. This morning optionman made pointed comments in his thread to the effect that "Charts give a visual representation on what’s happening; an open-high-low and closing price, moving averages, channels etc. that cannot be manipulated. Most fundamental data can be manipulated or a positive spin put on bad conditions..."
The best combination is to merge technical and fundamental analysis, being alert or watchful of not being blindsided by unexpected news and surprising events; and being ready to go to the G or F funds. Keep up the excellent posts!
Some words of acknowledgement for your system. If this keeps up, you will have shown that you have a viable technical system to keep an eye on. Last Friday the S&P 500 went as high as 1422.72, but it was only a failed attempt to rise, and it closed at 1413.90. This is IMO, within the range of expectations that you set out (the zone between 1380-1410). We seem to be in a correction. We shall see what happens next. Today the cash futures were very negative before the markets opened. Oil keeps a stubborn, and unacceptable rise, and we are still in a bear market. There are news of terrorists threatening oil fields and thus the oil supply, and so forth.
Technical analysis (TA) is a combination of art and science. This morning optionman made pointed comments in his thread to the effect that "Charts give a visual representation on what’s happening; an open-high-low and closing price, moving averages, channels etc. that cannot be manipulated. Most fundamental data can be manipulated or a positive spin put on bad conditions..."
The best combination is to merge technical and fundamental analysis, being alert or watchful of not being blindsided by unexpected news and surprising events; and being ready to go to the G or F funds. Keep up the excellent posts!
Heres14U
Member
Good Morning;
Thank you Airlift for the kind words. My thoughts are that everything everyone knows are already reflected in the index prices. They do tell most of the story. Fundamentals are important too, but I really watch what my oscillators are currently saying. I still believe we are nearing the end of this bear market rally. I think the public has been starting to get in and that also signals a top forming. I know it can be boring staying in one fund for a long time (F) but when stock prices fall they can fall very fast especially in this financial environment. The F-fund should benefit should stocks sell off.
The C-fund is down a little this morning. It’s reading is +.02 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund is also down a little this morning. It’s reading is +.04 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is up this morning. It’s current reading is +.11 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund (AGG) is down a little this morning. It is at -.10 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Staying 100% F-fund at this time.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/30/08 C 15.73 +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/01/08 C 16.00 -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/02/08 C 16.05 +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/05/08 C 15.98 +.08 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/06/08 C ------- +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 S 18.86 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/01/08 S 19.13 +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/02/08 S 19.12 +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/05/08 S 19.10 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/06/08 S ------- +.04 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.79 +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/01/08 I 23.89 -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/02/08 I 24.01 +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/05/08 I 24.08 +.12 -. 45 +.45 WAIT
5/06/08 I ------- +.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/30/08 F 12.18 +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/01/08 F 12.19 +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/02/08 F 12.16 +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/05/08 F 12.17 -.07 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/06/08 F ------- -.10 -. 50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Thank you Airlift for the kind words. My thoughts are that everything everyone knows are already reflected in the index prices. They do tell most of the story. Fundamentals are important too, but I really watch what my oscillators are currently saying. I still believe we are nearing the end of this bear market rally. I think the public has been starting to get in and that also signals a top forming. I know it can be boring staying in one fund for a long time (F) but when stock prices fall they can fall very fast especially in this financial environment. The F-fund should benefit should stocks sell off.
The C-fund is down a little this morning. It’s reading is +.02 and is a Wait for lower prices. In my opinion the zone between 1380-1410 for the S&P 500 is the maximum overall upside potential of this rally so be careful here. The S&P is also forming a bearish rising wedge pattern.
The S fund is also down a little this morning. It’s reading is +.04 and is in Wait mode for lower prices.
The I-fund is up this morning. It’s current reading is +.11 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I would like to see it come down before buying it.
The F-fund (AGG) is down a little this morning. It is at -.10 and is in Hold mode for higher prices. The F-fund was a Buy on 4/17/08 and 4/18/08 at $12.11.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Staying 100% F-fund at this time.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
4/30/08 C 15.73 +.03 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/01/08 C 16.00 -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/02/08 C 16.05 +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/05/08 C 15.98 +.08 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/06/08 C ------- +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
4/30/08 S 18.86 +.10 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/01/08 S 19.13 +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/02/08 S 19.12 +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/05/08 S 19.10 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/06/08 S ------- +.04 -.45 +.40 WAIT
4/23/08 I 23.79 +.01 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/01/08 I 23.89 -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/02/08 I 24.01 +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/05/08 I 24.08 +.12 -. 45 +.45 WAIT
5/06/08 I ------- +.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
4/30/08 F 12.18 +.13 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/01/08 F 12.19 +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/02/08 F 12.16 +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/05/08 F 12.17 -.07 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/06/08 F ------- -.10 -. 50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Heres14U
Member
Good Morning;
Because the stock funds are holding above their respective 20 day simple moving averages and up trending I’ve decided to adjust the Buy and Sell parameters to reflect this condition. The C, S and I funds are attracting capital and the Bond fund is not performing as expected. As long as the C, S and I funds can continue to stay above their respective 20 day moving averages the new Buy Below and Sell Above parameters will stay intact. I will be moving 100% I fund today as it is below its new Buy Below parameter. The C fund looks good too.
The C-fund is down slightly as I write. It’s reading is +.10 and is a Wait BUT close enough to Buy. Trend is continues to be up.
The S fund is up this morning. It’s reading is +.24 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. Reading is too high to buy.
The I-fund is up this morning. It’s current reading is +.07 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I expect it to be up tomorrow if our markets close higher today. It is a Buy today.
The F-fund (AGG) is down a little this morning. It is at -.33 and has not been acting right with lower highs in the chart. Stocks are outperforming by a mile as investors sell bonds to buy stocks. This most likely will continue now.
Going 100% I fund today for tomorrow..
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
5/01/08 C 16.00 -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/02/08 C 16.05 +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/05/08 C 15.98 +.08 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/06/08 C 16.10 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/07/08 C ------- +.10 +.10 +.30 WAIT OR BUY
5/01/08 S 19.13 +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/02/08 S 19.12 +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/05/08 S 19.10 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/06/08 S 19.26 +.04 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/07/08 S ------- +.24 +.10 +.45 HOLD
5/01/08 I 23.89 -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/02/08 I 24.01 +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/05/08 I 24.08 +.12 -. 45 +.45 WAIT
5/06/08 I 24.12 +.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/07/08 I ------- +.07 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/01/08 F 12.19 +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/02/08 F 12.16 +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/05/08 F 12.17 -.07 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/06/08 F 12.15 -.10 -. 50 +.50 HOLD
5/07/08 F ------- -.33 -.50 +.50 SELL NOT ACTING RIGHT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Because the stock funds are holding above their respective 20 day simple moving averages and up trending I’ve decided to adjust the Buy and Sell parameters to reflect this condition. The C, S and I funds are attracting capital and the Bond fund is not performing as expected. As long as the C, S and I funds can continue to stay above their respective 20 day moving averages the new Buy Below and Sell Above parameters will stay intact. I will be moving 100% I fund today as it is below its new Buy Below parameter. The C fund looks good too.
The C-fund is down slightly as I write. It’s reading is +.10 and is a Wait BUT close enough to Buy. Trend is continues to be up.
The S fund is up this morning. It’s reading is +.24 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. Reading is too high to buy.
The I-fund is up this morning. It’s current reading is +.07 and is in Wait mode for lower prices. It has been the strongest of the 3 stock funds. I expect it to be up tomorrow if our markets close higher today. It is a Buy today.
The F-fund (AGG) is down a little this morning. It is at -.33 and has not been acting right with lower highs in the chart. Stocks are outperforming by a mile as investors sell bonds to buy stocks. This most likely will continue now.
Going 100% I fund today for tomorrow..
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------------ Share 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price Read Below Above Recommendation
5/01/08 C 16.00 -.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/02/08 C 16.05 +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/05/08 C 15.98 +.08 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/06/08 C 16.10 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/07/08 C ------- +.10 +.10 +.30 WAIT OR BUY
5/01/08 S 19.13 +.03 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/02/08 S 19.12 +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/05/08 S 19.10 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/06/08 S 19.26 +.04 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/07/08 S ------- +.24 +.10 +.45 HOLD
5/01/08 I 23.89 -.26 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/02/08 I 24.01 +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/05/08 I 24.08 +.12 -. 45 +.45 WAIT
5/06/08 I 24.12 +.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/07/08 I ------- +.07 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/01/08 F 12.19 +.26 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/02/08 F 12.16 +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/05/08 F 12.17 -.07 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/06/08 F 12.15 -.10 -. 50 +.50 HOLD
5/07/08 F ------- -.33 -.50 +.50 SELL NOT ACTING RIGHT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Hi, luv2read turned me onto this thread... thanks! This system is very attractive to me. I would like to model my own charting based on your 11am read process, but I need to ask a newbie question...
Where do we get the actual fund share prices during the day? Of course I can see the Yahoo Financial quotes as linked to the TSPTalk home page... should we just apply the published percentage points to the previous day's fund share prices?
I am planning on building my own spreadsheet using your formula and the Yahoo quotes. You go by stockcharts? Could you provide a quick link?
Thanks again for publishing this straightforward system, I love it!
Where do we get the actual fund share prices during the day? Of course I can see the Yahoo Financial quotes as linked to the TSPTalk home page... should we just apply the published percentage points to the previous day's fund share prices?
I am planning on building my own spreadsheet using your formula and the Yahoo quotes. You go by stockcharts? Could you provide a quick link?
Thanks again for publishing this straightforward system, I love it!
Heres14U
Member
Thanks Boxkicker;
I get my intraday quotes from stockcharts.com at about 10:45am edt. I ring up $spx (c), $emw or $sml (s), $iee (i) like it better than EFA as I believe it takes currency fluctuations into account, and AGG for (F). For the C and F funds I use the actual quote shown. Because I use the TSP share prices for S and I, I use the % change and add or subtract it from yesterday's TSP share price. No difference really other than one way is a little more time consuming than the other and its just the way I have my spread sheets set up.
Today I had no idea the C, S and I funds would tumble as they did, or the F fund go up as it did at 11am. That of course is a problem trying to figure out what to do, but we have no control over that. I prefer to sell on up day's ( today F) and buy on down day's (today I) anyway so it worked out okay as I bought the I fund .30 cheaper than the day before. The question now of course is whether it can stay above it's rising 20 day moving average which is at about 23.60 (TSP share price) and $75.20 ($IEE price). If the uptrend is still intact we should see a good up day tomorrow or the day after. I will also be posting the 20day moving averages for each of the funds as they are important trigger points to sell as well as the Sell Above parameters.
Hope this helps, best regards, 14U.
I get my intraday quotes from stockcharts.com at about 10:45am edt. I ring up $spx (c), $emw or $sml (s), $iee (i) like it better than EFA as I believe it takes currency fluctuations into account, and AGG for (F). For the C and F funds I use the actual quote shown. Because I use the TSP share prices for S and I, I use the % change and add or subtract it from yesterday's TSP share price. No difference really other than one way is a little more time consuming than the other and its just the way I have my spread sheets set up.
Today I had no idea the C, S and I funds would tumble as they did, or the F fund go up as it did at 11am. That of course is a problem trying to figure out what to do, but we have no control over that. I prefer to sell on up day's ( today F) and buy on down day's (today I) anyway so it worked out okay as I bought the I fund .30 cheaper than the day before. The question now of course is whether it can stay above it's rising 20 day moving average which is at about 23.60 (TSP share price) and $75.20 ($IEE price). If the uptrend is still intact we should see a good up day tomorrow or the day after. I will also be posting the 20day moving averages for each of the funds as they are important trigger points to sell as well as the Sell Above parameters.
Hope this helps, best regards, 14U.
Heres14U
Member
Good Morning;
Today I am 100%-I fund after buying it yesterday come what may. It was below it’s new Buy Below parameter yesterday. As mentioned yesterday my reason for changing the Buy Below parameters yesterday for the C, S, and I funds was because they are in up trends. Up trends usually don’t allow the stock prices to fall much so I compensated by raising the Buy Below parameters. I had no idea prices would fall the way they did yesterday in C, S, and I but I managed to buy the I fund for a cheaper price. I sold the F-fund yesterday because it was acting poorly lately, but managed to sell on an up day which also turned out good. The sell points for the I fund will be when or if it manages to climb above its Sell Above parameter or if it should fall beneath it’s respective 20 day simple moving average. So it will be closely monitored.
The C-fund is down slightly as I write. It’s reading is -.11 and is a Buy today. If you bought yesterday it is a Hold.
The S fund is down this morning. It’s reading is -.11 and is a Buy today.
The I-fund is down a little morning. It’s current reading is -.22 and is a Hold if you bought yesterday and is still a buy for today.
The F-fund (AGG) is up this morning. It is at +.17 and Hold if you are in it. I sold it yesterday to get into the I fund.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Currently I am 100%-I fund with one IFT so far for May..
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
--------------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/02/08 C 16.05 1374.79 +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/05/08 C 15.98 1376.56 +.08 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/06/08 C 16.10 1379.19 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/07/08 C 15.82 1381.10 +.10 +.10 +.30 BUY
5/08/08 C ----- 1382.71 -.11 +.10 +.25 BUY
5/02/08 S 19.12 18.66 +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/05/08 S 19.10 18.69 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/06/08 S 19.26 18.72 +.04 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/07/08 S 18.99 18.75 +.24 +.10 +.45 WAIT
5/08/08 S ----- 18.77 -.11+.10 +.40 BUY
5/02/08 I 24.01 23.51 +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/05/08 I 24.08 23.53 +.12 -. 45 +.45 WAIT
5/06/08 I 24.12 23.57 +.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/07/08 I 23.82 23.60 +.07 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/08/08 I ----- 23.63 -.22 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/02/08 F 12.16 102.16 +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/05/08 F 12.17 102.14 -.07 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/06/08 F 12.15 102.10 -.10 -. 50 +.50 HOLD
5/07/08 F 12.17 102.06 -.33 -.50 +.50 I SOLD
5/08/08 F ----- 102.04 +.17 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Today I am 100%-I fund after buying it yesterday come what may. It was below it’s new Buy Below parameter yesterday. As mentioned yesterday my reason for changing the Buy Below parameters yesterday for the C, S, and I funds was because they are in up trends. Up trends usually don’t allow the stock prices to fall much so I compensated by raising the Buy Below parameters. I had no idea prices would fall the way they did yesterday in C, S, and I but I managed to buy the I fund for a cheaper price. I sold the F-fund yesterday because it was acting poorly lately, but managed to sell on an up day which also turned out good. The sell points for the I fund will be when or if it manages to climb above its Sell Above parameter or if it should fall beneath it’s respective 20 day simple moving average. So it will be closely monitored.
The C-fund is down slightly as I write. It’s reading is -.11 and is a Buy today. If you bought yesterday it is a Hold.
The S fund is down this morning. It’s reading is -.11 and is a Buy today.
The I-fund is down a little morning. It’s current reading is -.22 and is a Hold if you bought yesterday and is still a buy for today.
The F-fund (AGG) is up this morning. It is at +.17 and Hold if you are in it. I sold it yesterday to get into the I fund.
I managed to make a 3% return for the month of April on 2 IFT’s. Currently I am 100%-I fund with one IFT so far for May..
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for a truly good negative reading before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to be being successful in this bear market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
--------------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/02/08 C 16.05 1374.79 +.16 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/05/08 C 15.98 1376.56 +.08 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/06/08 C 16.10 1379.19 +.02 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/07/08 C 15.82 1381.10 +.10 +.10 +.30 BUY
5/08/08 C ----- 1382.71 -.11 +.10 +.25 BUY
5/02/08 S 19.12 18.66 +.26 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/05/08 S 19.10 18.69 +.08 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/06/08 S 19.26 18.72 +.04 -.45 +.40 WAIT
5/07/08 S 18.99 18.75 +.24 +.10 +.45 WAIT
5/08/08 S ----- 18.77 -.11+.10 +.40 BUY
5/02/08 I 24.01 23.51 +.03 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/05/08 I 24.08 23.53 +.12 -. 45 +.45 WAIT
5/06/08 I 24.12 23.57 +.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/07/08 I 23.82 23.60 +.07 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/08/08 I ----- 23.63 -.22 +.10 +.45 BUY
5/02/08 F 12.16 102.16 +.09 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/05/08 F 12.17 102.14 -.07 -.50 +.50 HOLD
5/06/08 F 12.15 102.10 -.10 -. 50 +.50 HOLD
5/07/08 F 12.17 102.06 -.33 -.50 +.50 I SOLD
5/08/08 F ----- 102.04 +.17 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the READ number goes below the BUY Below number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the READ number goes above the SELL number start your sell program as you are entering an overbought situation which can last one to three days.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
WAIT - Do not do any buying yet, expecting lower share prices in the days ahead. Trending down.
HOLD - Continue holding your current position in the fund. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is a negative number.
Notes:
Selling during a bear market must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike Bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decision. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!
Heres14U, check it out, useful
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=163335&postcount=206
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=163335&postcount=206
Gumby
Active member
Here's14U,
Looks like you are up more than 4% in less than 2 months. Great job!
It appears that your system is limiting your exposure to stock flutuations by moving into G and F. I like your strategy and will be paying more close attention to your system. It appears to show the uptrends. I think your system would make more money if we could still IFT daily to catch the trends. It appears to work well with the limited IFT's also as well.
Do you plot the trend with just the Excel software from your database?
I also sold F yesterday and went C,S,I and kept half of my powder dry in G in case there is another buying opportunity laster in the month.
Thanks for sharing your system.
Looks like you are up more than 4% in less than 2 months. Great job!
It appears that your system is limiting your exposure to stock flutuations by moving into G and F. I like your strategy and will be paying more close attention to your system. It appears to show the uptrends. I think your system would make more money if we could still IFT daily to catch the trends. It appears to work well with the limited IFT's also as well.
Do you plot the trend with just the Excel software from your database?
I also sold F yesterday and went C,S,I and kept half of my powder dry in G in case there is another buying opportunity laster in the month.
Thanks for sharing your system.
Heres14U
Member
Gumby;
The markets as we all know are an inexact science. In the quest to find a mechanical system that works well, tinkering and tweaking will have to be initiated depending on whether the fund in question is rising, moving sideways, falling, bottoming, topping etc. By tinkering I mean adjusting the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters. I was stuck in F for far too long because the stock funds which were and still are in up trends did not fall far enough to trigger buy signals below the Buy Below parameters. I have just adjusted those parameters higher so we will now see how they work. They have already given buy signals Wednesday and Thursday so we’ll see how things go the next few days. I should have adjusted the parameters when the funds moved above their respective 20 day moving averages weeks ago but as they say, “chalk it up for experience”. I’ll know better next time. Now let’s hope the C, S, and I funds can continue to stay above their 20 day moving averages.
Yes, this system did work quite well during daily IFT’s when they were available as you could adjust your allocations daily, lightening up as prices climbed and loading the truck when they dove during the bull market. Today is different in that I believe we are still experiencing a bear market rally which could turn back down. Also it is now May so a bearish seasonality is upon us. I think the top will be seen when there is a sharp up move in the stock funds to suck the public in, but haven’t seen it yet.
Regarding Excel, I just have to input the current index fund price and the spreadsheet will spit out the reading number that I go by and post here at TSPtalk each morning.
The F fund was up again today, but I did much better in the I-fund. Whether the I-fund will get above it’s +.45 Sell Above parameter I don’t know but it is at +.06 now from this morning’s -.22. If it gets to say +.40 one of these days that may be close enough for me to say goodbye to it. My goal is to make 2-3% a month, I’d be quite happy with that. Good Luck Gumby and thanks for the kind words. 14U.
The markets as we all know are an inexact science. In the quest to find a mechanical system that works well, tinkering and tweaking will have to be initiated depending on whether the fund in question is rising, moving sideways, falling, bottoming, topping etc. By tinkering I mean adjusting the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters. I was stuck in F for far too long because the stock funds which were and still are in up trends did not fall far enough to trigger buy signals below the Buy Below parameters. I have just adjusted those parameters higher so we will now see how they work. They have already given buy signals Wednesday and Thursday so we’ll see how things go the next few days. I should have adjusted the parameters when the funds moved above their respective 20 day moving averages weeks ago but as they say, “chalk it up for experience”. I’ll know better next time. Now let’s hope the C, S, and I funds can continue to stay above their 20 day moving averages.
Yes, this system did work quite well during daily IFT’s when they were available as you could adjust your allocations daily, lightening up as prices climbed and loading the truck when they dove during the bull market. Today is different in that I believe we are still experiencing a bear market rally which could turn back down. Also it is now May so a bearish seasonality is upon us. I think the top will be seen when there is a sharp up move in the stock funds to suck the public in, but haven’t seen it yet.
Regarding Excel, I just have to input the current index fund price and the spreadsheet will spit out the reading number that I go by and post here at TSPtalk each morning.
The F fund was up again today, but I did much better in the I-fund. Whether the I-fund will get above it’s +.45 Sell Above parameter I don’t know but it is at +.06 now from this morning’s -.22. If it gets to say +.40 one of these days that may be close enough for me to say goodbye to it. My goal is to make 2-3% a month, I’d be quite happy with that. Good Luck Gumby and thanks for the kind words. 14U.
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