Here's14U's Account Talk

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I would like to take this belated opportunity to thank all of you fellow veterans for your service to this country. I hope you all had a great Memorial Day weekend. Thanks to your service and sacrifice we all enjoy our freedom. I am a Vietnam Veteran and sincerely appreciate the Memorial Day holiday and how fortunate we are to live in this free country.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.30 and is still a buy however my longer term chart is negative so if you do buy it would only be a hold for a few days. There’s also a greater chance now that prices will continue to fall lower so it is a very risky buy here. C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average .
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.27. It’s a Hold if you bought it Friday however longer term chart is falling and negative predicting lower prices ahead so don‘t stay in to long.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.47 and is a Buy today. Longer term chart is falling so this also would be a very short term trade, just a few days.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.37 and is a wait for lower prices.
I am currently 100% G for the rest of May. As of 5/23/08 I am #7 in the tracker with a return of +.7.21% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below parameters in the stock funds to reflect my thinking of a possible nasty sell off coming. They would allow us to buy at much lower prices should I be right.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/20/08 C 16.07 1403.56 -.02 +.10 +.25 I’M SELLING
5/21/08 C 15.81 1404.10 -.07 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/22/08 C 15.86 1404.38 -.23 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/23/08 C 15.65 1403.28 -.38 -.25 +.25 BUY- IF YOU DARE!
5/27/08 C ----- 1402.62 -.30 -.25 +.25 BUY- IF YOU DARE!

5/20/08 S 19.54 19.16 -.08 +.10 +.40 I WOULD SELL
5/21/08 S 19.25 19.19 -.02 -.40 +.40 WAIT
5/22/08 S 19.34 19.22 -.27 -.40 +.40 WAIT
5/23/08 S 19.15 19.23 -.40 -.40 +.40 BUY-IF YOU DARE!
5/27/08 S ----- 19.25 -.27 -.40 +.40 HOLD IF BOUGHT FOR FEW DAYS

5/20/08 I 24.45 24.02 +.06 +.10 +.45 I’M SELLING
5/21/08 I 24.12 24.04 -.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/22/08 I 24.37 24.09 -.38 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/23/08 I 24.15 24.11 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/27/08 I ----- 24.12 -.47 -.45 +.45 BUY-IF YOU DARE!

5/20/08 F 12.24 101.97 +.22 -. 50 +.50 WAIT
5/21/08 F 12.21 101.97 +.23 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/22/08 F 12.15 101.96 -.36 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/23/08 F 12.19 101.98 -.12 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/27/08 F ----- 101.97 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.27. If you have bought I would hold it but we could easily go down from here to get to a more oversold condition which would be a better buy. I think it will have a few days of rally in early June which should be profitable. If you don‘t own it than I would Wait for a few days. There’s also a greater chance now that prices will continue to fall lower so it is a very risky buy here. C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average .
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.27. It’s a Hold if you bought it Friday however if you did not buy it it’s a Wait for lower prices then a rally.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.55 and is almost a buy. If you own it I would hold it, if you don’t own it it’s a very tempting buy today. Should rally next week.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.51 and is Buy if you Dare! Testing major support at about 101.25 today. Longer term chart not looking very good. Will support hold???
I am currently 100% G for the rest of May. As of 5/27/08 I am #7 in the tracker with a return of +.7.29% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters today (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term charts are negative (falling). They would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about a month) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in the longer term charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/21/08 C 15.81 1404.10 -.07 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/22/08 C 15.86 1404.38 -.23 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/23/08 C 15.65 1403.28 -.38 -.25 +.25 BUY- IF YOU DARE!
5/27/08 C 15.76 1402.73 -.30 -.25 +.25 BUY- IF YOU DARE!
5/28/08 C ----- 1402.30 -.27 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN

5/21/08 S 19.25 19.19 -.02 -.40 +.40 WAIT
5/22/08 S 19.34 19.22 -.27 -.40 +.40 WAIT
5/23/08 S 19.15 19.23 -.40 -.40 +.40 BUY-IF YOU DARE!
5/27/08 S 19.33 19.25 -.27 -.40 +.40 HOLD IF BOUGHT FOR FEW DAYS
5/28/08 S ----- 19.27 -.27 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN

5/21/08 I 24.12 24.04 -.11 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/22/08 I 24.37 24.09 -.38 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/23/08 I 24.15 24.11 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/27/08 I 23.92 24.11 -.47 -.45 +.45 BUY-IF YOU DARE!
5/28/08 I ----- 24.12 -.55 -.65 +.20 AMOST A BUY/WAIT

5/21/08 F 12.21 101.97 +.23 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/22/08 F 12.15 101.96 -.36 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/23/08 F 12.19 101.98 -.12 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/27/08 F 12.15 101.96 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/28/08 F ----- 101.93 -.51 -. 50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund. Longer term chart is rising so rallies should have staying power!
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.12. If you have bought on the 23rd or 27th congratulations you have a profit! I think 1400 may be a resistance point which could stop the rally. This makes sense to me as the longer term momentum chart is falling now. C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average and moving up towards it. It’s Sell Above parameter is a +.10 so if we rally strong here till noon I would think about selling it.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.03. If you bought it on the 23rd congratulations you have a profit! This fund still remains above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign, but the upward momentum chart is now falling. Currently it is a Hold but close enough to .00 it’s Sell Above parameter to Sell should it continue strong this morning.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.42 and is a Wait for lower prices.. If you bought it on the 27th congratulations you have a profit! Longer term momentum is falling however so I would not hold it to long. It’s Sell Above parameter is +.20 so it has the potential to move up from here for a few days.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.83 and is Buy if you Dare! Major support at about 101.25 failed yesterday so the trend is clearly down. Longer term momentum is down so if you were to buy today it would only be a hold for a few days of upward bounce.
I am currently 100% G for the rest of May. As of 5/28/08 I am #7 in the tracker with a return of +.7.29% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for another day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about a month) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in the longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/22/08 C 15.86 1404.38 -.23 -.25 +.25 WAIT
5/23/08 C 15.65 1403.28 -.38 -.25 +.25 BUY- IF YOU DARE!
5/27/08 C 15.76 1402.73 -.30 -.25 +.25 BUY- IF YOU DARE!
5/28/08 C 15.82 1402.73 -.27 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/29/08 C ----- 1403.17 -.12 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN

5/22/08 S 19.34 19.22 -.27 -.40 +.40 WAIT
5/23/08 S 19.15 19.23 -.40 -.40 +.40 BUY-IF YOU DARE!
5/27/08 S 19.33 19.25 -.27 -.40 +.40 HOLD IF BOUGHT FOR FEW DAYS
5/28/08 S 19.49 19.28 -.27 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/29/08 S ----- 19.31 -.03 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, CLOSE TO A SELL

5/22/08 I 24.37 24.09 -.38 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/23/08 I 24.15 24.11 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/27/08 I 23.92 24.11 -.47 -.45 +.45 BUY-IF YOU DARE!
5/28/08 I 24.04 24.13 -.55 -.65 +.20 AMOST A BUY/WAIT
5/29/08 I ----- 24.14 -.42 -.65 +.20 WAIT FOR LOWER PRICES

5/22/08 F 12.15 101.96 -.36 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/23/08 F 12.19 101.98 -.12 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/29/08 F 12.15 101.96 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/28/08 F 12.09 101.91 -.51 -. 50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
5/29/08 F ----- 101.81 -.83 -.50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund. Longer term chart is rising so rallies should have staying power!
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term MOMENTUM chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.01. If you have bought on the 23rd or 27th congratulations you have a profit! I think 1410 may be a resistance point which could stop the rally. This makes sense to me as the longer term momentum chart is falling now. C is now Above it’s 20 day moving average which could still act as resistance. It’s Sell Above parameter is a +.10 so if we rally strong here till noon I would think about selling it.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at +.09. If you bought it on the 23rd congratulations you have a profit! This fund still remains above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign, but the upward momentum chart is now falling. Currently it is Sell as it is now above it’s Sell Above parameter of .00.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.25 and is a Wait for lower prices if you are not in it. If you bought it on the 27th congratulations you have a profit! Longer term momentum is falling however so I would not hold it to long. It’s Sell Above parameter is +.20 so it still has the potential to move up from here for a few days. It is a Hold if your in it, a Wait if you are not.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.27. If you bought it on the 28th or 29th congrats, you should start seeing a profit. The very negative readings of -.51 and -.83 the last two trading days could be a very good turning point for an up move now. The Longer term momentum chart is falling however so if you are in it you should think of getting out sometime next week. I have adjusted the Sell Above parameter to +.25 as that is where it usually turns back down.
I am currently 100% G for the rest of May. As of 5/29/08 I am #6 in the tracker with a return of +.7.29% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for another day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about a month) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in the longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/23/08 C 15.65 1403.28 -.38 -.25 +.25 BUY- IF YOU DARE!
5/27/08 C 15.76 1402.73 -.30 -.25 +.25 BUY- IF YOU DARE!
5/28/08 C 15.82 1402.73 -.27 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/29/08 C 15.91 1403.36 -.15 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/30/08 C ----- 1403.07 -.01 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN

5/23/08 S 19.15 19.23 -.40 -.40 +.40 BUY-IF YOU DARE!
5/27/08 S 19.33 19.25 -.27 -.40 +.40 HOLD IF BOUGHT FOR FEW DAYS
5/28/08 S 19.49 19.28 -.27 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/29/08 S 19.63 19.32 -.03 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, CLOSE TO A SELL
5/30/08 S ----- 19.35 +.09 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN

5/23/08 I 24.15 24.11 -.23 -.45 +.45 WAIT
5/27/08 I 23.92 24.11 -.47 -.45 +.45 BUY-IF YOU DARE!
5/28/08 I 24.04 24.13 -.55 -.65 +.20 AMOST A BUY/WAIT
5/29/08 I 23.91 24.13 -.42 -.65 +.20 WAIT FOR LOWER PRICES
5/30/08 I ----- 24.14 -.25 -.65 +.20 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN

5/23/08 F 12.19 101.98 -.12 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/29/08 F 12.15 101.96 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/28/08 F 12.09 101.91 -.51 -. 50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
5/29/08 F 12.05 101.81 -.83 -.50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
5/30/08 F ----- 101.76 -.27 -.50 +.25 HOLD IF IN
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund. Longer term chart is rising so rallies should have staying power!
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[scrambow]

Thanks for your work! Is there anyway you could post before the 1200 EST IFT deadline each day? Been following your posts very closely and your on target!

Thanks again.

 

[Heres14U]

Scrambow, thanks for the kind words. I try to post by 11:00am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) an hour before the 12 noon IFT deadline. Today I admit I was a little late but still well before the noon deadline. It's possible to post at 10:30am EDT if that would help. I would like to hear from others about this issue as well. Are time zones a problem folks?? Thanks 14u.

 

[XL-entLady]

Scrambow, thanks for the kind words. I try to post by 11:00am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time) an hour before the 12 noon IFT deadline. Today I admit I was a little late but still well before the noon deadline. It's possible to post at 10:30am EDT if that would help. I would like to hear from others about this issue as well. Are time zones a problem folks?? Thanks 14u.

Where I live I have to submit my IFT by 9 am if I want to be sure it's going to be effective COB the same day. But if you post by 11 am Eastern, that's 9 am my time and it works.

And I do want to say that I try to check your update every morning before I decide where my account is going that day (when I'm not in IFT jail, anyway). So a big thanks for your hard work on your thread!

Lady

 

[scrambow]

Thanks 4U. Looking at your post time today should have clued me in your already posting before the deadline. Lost my mind for a bit. Thanks again for your work.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Thank you Lady for your reply. I just want to make sure everyone can read my post before the IFT deadline.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.12. I’m putting a SELL/WAIT on this fund today. This makes sense to me as the longer term momentum chart is falling now. C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average which could still act as resistance. There are times when you have to go with the longer term momentum chart which is negative now. This is such a time.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.01. This fund was a SELL Friday as it got above it‘s Sell Above parameter of .00. This fund still remains above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign, but its longer term momentum chart is now falling. Currently it is a WAIT for lower prices.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.36 and is a SELL/WAIT for lower prices. It’s longer term momentum chart is falling and I don’t believe it can now move above it’s Sell Above parameter with today’s action in the US markets. There are times when you have to go with the longer term momentum chart which is negative now. This is such a time.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.55. Today it is BUY IF YOU DARE! The Longer term momentum chart is falling however so if you are in it you should think of getting out on a dead cat bounce. I have adjusted the Sell Above parameter to +.25 as that is where it usually turns back down.
I am currently 100% G and will remain there for now. As of 5/30/08 I am #7 in the tracker with a return of +.7.29% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for another day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about a month) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in the longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/27/08 C 15.76 1402.73 -.30 -.25 +.25 BUY- IF YOU DARE!
5/28/08 C 15.82 1402.73 -.27 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/29/08 C 15.91 1403.36 -.15 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/30/08 C 15.93 1403.07 -.01 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
6/02/08 C ----- ------- -.12 -.40 +.10 SELL/WAIT

5/27/08 S 19.33 19.25 -.27 -.40 +.40 HOLD IF BOUGHT FOR FEW DAYS
5/28/08 S 19.49 19.28 -.27 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/29/08 S 19.63 19.32 -.03 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, CLOSE TO A SELL
5/30/08 S 19.78 19.35 +.09 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN
6/02/08 S ----- ----- -.01 -.55 +.00 WAIT

5/27/08 I 23.92 24.11 -.47 -.45 +.45 BUY-IF YOU DARE!
5/28/08 I 24.04 24.13 -.55 -.65 +.20 AMOST A BUY/WAIT
5/29/08 I 23.91 24.13 -.42 -.65 +.20 WAIT FOR LOWER PRICES
5/30/08 I 24.05 24.14 -.25 -.65 +.20 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
6/02/08 I ----- ----- -.36 -.65 +.20 SELL/WAIT

5/29/08 F 12.15 101.96 -.37 -.50 +.50 WAIT
5/28/08 F 12.09 101.91 -.51 -. 50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
5/29/08 F 12.05 101.81 -.83 -.50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
5/30/08 F 12.09 101.75 -.27 -.50 +.25 HOLD IF IN
6/02/08 F ----- ----- -.55 -.50 +.25 BUY IF YOU DARE!
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund. Longer term chart is rising so rallies should have staying power!
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.03. It is a WAIT for lower prices currently. The longer term momentum chart is falling now so rallies should be short lived. C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average which could still act as resistance.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at +.11. This fund was a SELL Friday and is currently a SELL if you are in it and a WAIT if you are out of it. This fund still remains above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign, but its longer term momentum chart is now falling.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.41 and is a WAIT for lower prices. It’s longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived. There are times when you have to go with the longer term momentum chart which is negative now. This is such a time.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.39. Today it is HOLD if you own it. The Longer term momentum chart is falling however so if you are in it you should think of getting out on a dead cat bounce. I have adjusted the Sell Above parameter to +.25 as that is where it usually turns back down.
I am currently 100% G and will remain there for now. As of 6/2/08 I am #7 in the tracker with a return of +.7.38% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for another day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about a month) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in the longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
-------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/28/08 C 15.82 1402.73 -.27 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/29/08 C 15.91 1403.36 -.15 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/30/08 C 15.93 1403.07 -.01 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
6/02/08 C 15.77 1401.50 -.12 -.40 +.10 SELL/WAIT
6/03/08 C ----- 1400.78 -.03 -.40 +.10 WAIT

5/28/08 S 19.49 19.28 -.27 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/29/08 S 19.63 19.32 -.03 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, CLOSE TO A SELL
5/30/08 S 19.78 19.35 +.09 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN
6/02/08 S 19.64 19.38 -.01 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/03/08 S ----- 19.41 +.11 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT

5/28/08 I 24.04 24.13 -.55 -.65 +.20 AMOST A BUY/WAIT
5/29/08 I 23.91 24.13 -.42 -.65 +.20 WAIT FOR LOWER PRICES
5/30/08 I 24.05 24.14 -.25 -.65 +.20 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
6/02/08 I 23.97 24.14 -.36 -.65 +.20 SELL/WAIT
6/03/08 I ----- 24.12 -.41 -.65 +.20 WAIT

5/28/08 F 12.09 101.91 -.51 -. 50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
5/29/08 F 12.05 101.81 -.83 -.50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
5/30/08 F 12.09 101.75 -.27 -.50 +.25 HOLD IF IN
6/02/08 F 12.13 101.70 -.55 -.50 +.25 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/03/08 F ----- 101.64 -.39 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund. Longer term chart is rising so rallies should have staying power!
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.12. It is a WAIT for lower prices. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived and shorted. C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average which will most likely act as upside resistance. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.04. This fund was a SELL Friday and is currently a WAIT for lower prices. This fund still remains above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign, but my longer term momentum chart is now falling which simply means rallies most likely will not be sustainable. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.46 and is a WAIT for lower prices. My longer term momentum chart is also falling so rallies should be short lived. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.14. If you bought the F-fund on the 29th or 2cnd congrats you have a profit! Today it is HOLD if you own it. My longer term momentum chart appears to be bottoming (very oversold) and may be starting back up. I have adjusted the Sell Above parameter back to +.50 as it appears a good bottom may have been formed the last few trading days.
I am currently 100% G and will remain there for now. I prefer to wait for a buy signal in the stock funds as they offer a larger profit potential than the F fund. As of 6/3/08 I am #7 in the tracker with a return of +.7.38% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for another day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about a month) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in the longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
----------- Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/29/08 C 15.91 1403.36 -.15 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
5/30/08 C 15.93 1403.07 -.01 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
6/02/08 C 15.77 1401.50 -.12 -.40 +.10 SELL/WAIT
6/03/08 C 15.68 1400.01 -.03 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/04/08 C ----- 1398.12 -.12 -.40 +.10 WAIT

5/29/08 S 19.63 19.32 -.03 -.55 +.00 HOLD IF IN, CLOSE TO A SELL
5/30/08 S 19.78 19.35 +.09 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN
6/02/08 S 19.64 19.38 -.01 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/03/08 S 19.62 19.40 +.11 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT
6/04/08 S ----- 19.42 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT

5/29/08 I 23.91 24.13 -.42 -.65 +.20 WAIT FOR LOWER PRICES
5/30/08 I 24.05 24.14 -.25 -.65 +.20 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
6/02/08 I 23.97 24.14 -.36 -.65 +.20 SELL/WAIT
6/03/08 I 23.77 24.12 -.46 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/04/08 I ----- 24.10 -.00 -.65 +.20 WAIT

5/29/08 F 12.05 101.81 -.83 -.50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
5/30/08 F 12.09 101.75 -.27 -.50 +.25 HOLD IF IN
6/02/08 F 12.13 101.70 -.55 -.50 +.25 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/03/08 F 12.16 101.66 -.39 -.50 +.25 HOLD IF IN
6/04/08 F ----- 101.64 +.14 -. 50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund. Longer term chart is rising so rallies should have staying power!
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at +.01. It is a WAIT for lower prices. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived and shorted. C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average which will most likely act as upside resistance. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at +.14. This fund is a SELL/WAIT for today. This fund still remains above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign, but my longer term momentum chart is now falling which simply means rallies most likely will not be sustainable. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.38 and is a WAIT for lower prices. My longer term momentum chart is also falling so rallies should be short lived. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.32. Today it is HOLD if you own it. My longer term momentum chart appears to be bottoming (very oversold) and may be starting back up. I have adjusted the Sell Above parameter back to +.50 as it appears a good bottom may have been formed the last few trading days.
I am currently 100% G and will remain there for now. I prefer to wait for a buy signal in the stock funds as they offer a larger profit potential than the F fund. As of 6/4/08 I am #7 in the tracker with a return of +.7.38% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally from here for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about 2-4 weeks) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in my longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
5/30/08 C 15.93 1403.07 -.01 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
6/02/08 C 15.77 1401.50 -.12 -.40 +.10 SELL/WAIT
6/03/08 C 15.68 1400.01 -.03 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/04/08 C 15.68 1397.96 -.12 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/05/08 C ----- 1397.91 +.01 -.40 +.10 WAIT

5/30/08 S 19.78 19.35 +.09 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN
6/02/08 S 19.64 19.38 -.01 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/03/08 S 19.62 19.40 +.11 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT
6/04/08 S 19.65 19.42 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/05/08 S ----- 19.46 +.14 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT

5/30/08 I 24.05 24.14 -.25 -.65 +.20 HOLD IF IN, WAIT IF NOT IN
6/02/08 I 23.97 24.14 -.36 -.65 +.20 SELL/WAIT
6/03/08 I 23.77 24.12 -.46 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/04/08 I 23.67 24.10 -.00 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/05/08 I ----- 24.09 -.38 -.65 +.20 WAIT

5/30/08 F 12.09 101.75 -.27 -.50 +.25 HOLD IF IN
6/02/08 F 12.13 101.70 -.55 -.50 +.25 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/03/08 F 12.16 101.66 -.39 -.50 +.25 HOLD IF IN
6/04/08 F 12.13 101.62 +.14 -. 50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/05/08 F ----- ----- -.32 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund. Longer term chart is rising so rallies should have staying power!
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Steadygain]

Pretty good stuff my friend.

A lot of good info - thanks for sharing!!

Major Cool Dude

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Thanks Steady for the kind words. I have read many of your posts and find you quite knowledgeable and entertaining!
What the market gives, the market can take away. IMO the bear trend will continue with some up days here and there. Premature jubilation reins about the economy. More bad news coming. The bears will have their way for another 2-3 weeks. Bonds up on bad employment news.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.08. It is a WAIT for lower prices. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived and shorted (like yesterdays). C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average which will most likely act as upside resistance. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.04. This fund was a SELL yesterday and is WAIT today. This fund still remains above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign, but my longer term momentum chart is now falling which simply means rallies most likely will not be sustainable. I’m expecting negative momentum to increase soon as the Dow and $SPX continue to weaken for 2-3 weeks.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.02 and is a WAIT for lower prices. My longer term momentum chart is also falling so rallies should be short lived. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.10. Today it is HOLD if you own it. My longer term momentum chart appears to be bottoming (very oversold) and may be starting back up. I have adjusted the Sell Above parameter back to +.50 as it appears a good bottom may have been formed the last few trading days.
I am currently 100% G and will remain there for now. I prefer to wait for a buy signal in the stock funds as they offer a larger profit potential than the F fund. As of 6/5/08 I am #9 in the tracker with a return of +.7.38% since 3/11/08. Although we may can have a knee jerk rally for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about 2-4 weeks) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in my longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/02/08 C 15.77 1401.50 -.12 -.40 +.10 SELL/WAIT
6/03/08 C 15.68 1400.01 -.03 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/04/08 C 15.68 1397.96 -.12 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/05/08 C 15.98 1398.53 +.01 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/06/08 C ----- 1397.95 -.08 -.40 +.10 WAIT

6/02/08 S 19.64 19.38 -.01 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/03/08 S 19.62 19.40 +.11 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT
6/04/08 S 19.65 19.42 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/05/08 S 20.08 19.48 +.14 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT
6/06/08 S ----- 19.51 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/02/08 I 23.97 24.14 -.36 -.65 +.20 SELL/WAIT
6/03/08 I 23.77 24.12 -.46 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/04/08 I 23.67 24.10 -.00 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/05/08 I 24.07 24.11 -.38 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/06/08 I ----- 24.11 -.02 -.65 +.20 WAIT

6/02/08 F 12.13 101.70 -.55 -.50 +.25 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/03/08 F 12.16 101.66 -.39 -.50 +.25 HOLD IF IN
6/04/08 F 12.13 101.62 +.14 -. 50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/05/08 F 12.09 101.54 -.32 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/06/08 F ----- 101.47 +.10 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund. Longer term chart is rising so rallies should have staying power!
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets (if we are still in one) are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there is no guarantee of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Here comes the dead cat bounce.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.21. It is a WAIT for lower prices. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived and shorted. C is now Below it’s 20 day moving average which will most likely act as upside resistance. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.20. This fund is WAIT today for lower prices. This fund still remains above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign, but my longer term momentum chart is now falling which simply means rallies most likely will not be sustainable. I’m expecting negative momentum to increase soon as the Dow and $SPX continue to weaken for 2-3 weeks.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.73 and is a BUY IF YOU DARE! My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived (1-3 days). I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.03. Today it is HOLD if you own it. My longer term momentum chart appears to be bottoming (very oversold) and may be starting back up. I have adjusted the Sell Above parameter back to +.50 as it appears a good bottom may have been formed the last few trading days.
I am currently 100% G and will remain there for now. The I fund is interesting but I don’t believe the rally it may experience will be sustainable as its longer term momentum if falling. I prefer to wait for a better buy signal in the stock funds as they offer a larger profit potential than the F fund. As of 6/6/08 I am #5 in the tracker with a return of +.7.38% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about 2-4 weeks) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in my longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/03/08 C 15.68 1400.01 -.03 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/04/08 C 15.68 1397.96 -.12 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/05/08 C 15.98 1398.53 +.01 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/06/08 C 15.49 1396.68 -.08 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/09/08 C ----- 1395.64 -.21 -.40 +.10 WAIT

6/03/08 S 19.62 19.40 +.11 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT
6/04/08 S 19.65 19.42 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/05/08 S 20.08 19.48 +.14 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT
6/06/08 S 19.57 19.50 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/09/08 S ----- 19.53 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/03/08 I 23.77 24.12 -.46 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/04/08 I 23.67 24.10 -.00 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/05/08 I 24.07 24.11 -.38 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/06/08 I 23.43 24.08 -.02 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/09/08 I ----- 24.05 -.73 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/03/08 F 12.16 101.66 -.39 -.50 +.25 HOLD IF IN
6/04/08 F 12.13 101.62 +.14 -. 50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/05/08 F 12.09 101.54 -.32 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/06/08 F 12.12 101.48 +.10 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/09/08 F ----- 100.64 -.03 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The bear market reasserts itself. Although we may get a few bounces here and there I believe they should be shorted (sold). The S&P500 could very well move down into the 1280-1300 level. At that point a possible intermediate term bottom could form.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.24. It is a WAIT for lower prices. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived and shorted. C is Below it’s 20 day moving average which will most likely act as upside resistance. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks. Possible levels for a bounce, 1350 and 1327. Most likely going down to 1280-1300.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.38. This fund is WAIT today for lower prices. It still remains above it’s 20 day moving average which is a good sign, but my longer term momentum chart is now falling which simply means rallies most likely will not be sustainable. I’m expecting falling momentum for 2-3 weeks.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.82 and is a BUY IF YOU DARE! for the second day. In times of desparation the reading can get to -1.00 before rallying but the first rally is usually just a dead cat bounce. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived (1-3 days). I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 2-3 weeks.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.23. Today I’m putting a SELL on it simply because the 10 year Treasury yield wants to continue up. Inflation is taking its toll on bonds. The longer term chart (AGG) appears to have topped out and it is now looking quite negative. I thought we would get some kind of a bounce but unfortunately bonds are very weak here. I’ve adjusted the BUY BELOW parameter to -.65 to reflect a very weak market.
I am currently 100% G and will remain there for now. The I fund is interesting but I don’t believe the rally it may experience will be sustainable as its longer term momentum if falling. I prefer to wait for a better buy signal in the stock funds as they offer a larger profit potential than the F fund. As of 6/9/08 I am #5 in the tracker with a return of +7.38% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about 2-4 weeks) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in my longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/04/08 C 15.68 1397.96 -.12 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/05/08 C 15.98 1398.53 +.01 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/06/08 C 15.49 1396.68 -.08 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/09/08 C 15.51 1395.35 -.21 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/10/08 C ----- 1393.19 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT

6/04/08 S 19.65 19.42 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/05/08 S 20.08 19.48 +.14 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT
6/06/08 S 19.57 19.50 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/09/08 S 19.47 19.52 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/10/08 S ----- 19.53 -.38 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/04/08 I 23.67 24.10 -.00 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/05/08 I 24.07 24.11 -.38 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/06/08 I 23.43 24.08 -.02 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/09/08 I 23.30 24.05 -.73 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/10/08 I ----- 24.00 -.82 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/04/08 F 12.13 101.62 +.14 -. 50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/05/08 F 12.09 101.54 -.32 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/06/08 F 12.12 101.48 +.10 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/09/08 F 12.07 101.39 -.03 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/10/08 F ----- 101.31 -.23 -.65 +.25 SELL IF IN

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U

 

[crhuss]

Hey Here's 14U,
I appreciate reading your analysis. At least someone on this web site is willing to try to figure out what this crazy market is doing. And thanks for posting in time for us to al least consider making a move...(as seldom as that can happen these days). Keep up the good work. I enjoy reading your comments early in the morning to get my day started.

Take care,

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Crhuss thank you for the kind words. I have had favorable comments from others who appreciate my posts. Hopefully we can all make some money together, although doing it in this bear market will be a quite a challenge. Good Luck and thanks again!
The bear market reasserts itself again today. Although we may get a few bounces here and there I believe they should be shorted (sold). The S&P500 could very well move down into the 1280-1300 level. At that point a possible intermediate term bottom could form. It’s going to be tough going with the thought of higher interest rates globally going forward.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.53. It is a BUY IF YOU DARE! Today. It is possible to go down to -.70 so buying here may be a little premature. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived and shorted. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 1-2 weeks. Possible level for a small bounce is 1327. Most likely going down to 1280-1300.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.54. It can move down to -.60 so buying here would be a little premature. This fund is WAIT today for lower prices although it is very close to a BUY IF YOU DARE! It is below it’s 20 day moving average which is a bad sign and it’s longer term momentum chart is now falling which simply means rallies most likely will not be sustainable. I’m expecting falling momentum for 1-2 weeks.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.78 and is a BUY IF YOU DARE! for the third day. In times of desparation the reading can get to -1.00 before rallying but the first rally is usually just a dead cat bounce.
My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived (1-3 days). I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 1-2 weeks.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.29. It is a WAIT for today. I put a SELL on simply because the 10 year Treasury yield wants to continue up. Inflation is taking its toll on bonds. The longer term chart (AGG) appears to have topped out and it is now looking quite negative. I thought we would get some kind of a bounce but unfortunately bonds are very weak here. I’ve adjusted the BUY BELOW parameter to -.65 to reflect a very weak market.
I am currently 100% G (since 5/21/08) and will remain there for now. The I fund is interesting but I don’t believe the rally it may experience will be sustainable as its longer term momentum chart is falling. I prefer to wait for a better buy signal in the stock funds, one that will offer something better than a 2-3 day bounce. As of 6/10/08 I am #4 in the tracker with a return of +.7.47% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about 2-4 weeks) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in my longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/05/08 C 15.98 1398.53 +.01 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/06/08 C 15.49 1396.68 -.08 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/09/08 C 15.51 1395.35 -.21 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/10/08 C 15.47 1393.10 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/11/08 C ----- 1390.19 -.53 -.40 +.10 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/05/08 S 20.08 19.48 +.14 -.55 +.00 SELL IF IN/WAIT
6/06/08 S 19.57 19.50 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/09/08 S 19.47 19.52 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/10/08 S 19.34 19.52 -.38 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/11/08 S ----- 19.51 -.54 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/05/08 I 24.07 24.11 -.38 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/06/08 I 23.43 24.08 -.02 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/09/08 I 23.30 24.05 -.73 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/10/08 I 22.94 23.99 -.82 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/11/08 I ----- 23.94 -.78 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/05/08 F 12.09 101.54 -.32 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/06/08 F 12.12 101.48 +.10 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/09/08 F 12.07 101.39 -.03 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/10/08 F 11.99 101.29 -.23 -.65 +.25 SELL IF IN
6/11/08 F ----- 101.23 -.29 -. 65 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Short covering rally today. One day up doesn’t make a trend. Although we may get a few bounces here and there I believe they should be shorted (sold). The S&P500 could very well move down into the 1280-1300 level. At that point a possible intermediate term bottom could form. It’s going to be tough going with the thought of higher interest rates going forward globally.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.20. It is a HOLD IF YOU ARE IN Today. It is possible to go down to -.70 so buying here may be a little premature. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived and shorted. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 1-2 weeks. Possible level for a small bounce is 1327. Most likely going down to 1280-1300.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.42. It can move down to -.60 so buying here would be a little premature. In time of desperation the reading can go as low as -.90. This fund is WAIT today for lower prices although yesterday it was very close to a BUY IF YOU DARE! It is below it’s 20 day moving average which is a bad sign and it’s longer term momentum chart is now falling which simply means rallies most likely will not be sustainable. I’m expecting falling momentum for 1-2 weeks.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.96 and is a BUY IF YOU DARE! for the fourth day. In times of desperation the reading can get to -1.00 before rallying but the first rally is usually just a dead cat bounce.
My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived (1-3 days). I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 1-2 weeks.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.65. It is a BUY IF YOU DARE! for today. In times of deperation it can go down to -1.00. Buying here could be a little premature. Inflation is taking its toll on bonds. The longer term chart (AGG) appears to have topped out and it is now looking quite negative. I thought we would get some kind of a bounce but unfortunately bonds are very weak here. I’ve adjusted the BUY BELOW parameter to -.65 to reflect a very weak market.
I am currently 100% G (since 5/21/08) and will remain there for now. The I fund is interesting but I don’t believe the rally it may experience will be sustainable as its longer term momentum chart is falling. I prefer to wait for a better buy signal in the stock funds, one that will offer something better than a 2-3 day bounce. As of 6/10/08 I am #4 in the tracker with a return of +.7.47% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about 2-4 weeks) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in my longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/06/08 C 15.49 1396.68 -.08 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/09/08 C 15.51 1395.35 -.21 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/10/08 C 15.47 1393.10 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/11/08 C 15.21 1389.72 -.53 -.40 +.10 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/12/08 C ----- 1386.73 -.20 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN

6/06/08 S 19.57 19.50 -.04 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/09/08 S 19.47 19.52 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/10/08 S 19.34 19.52 -.38 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/11/08 S 19.02 19.51 -.54 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/12/08 S ----- 19.50 -.42 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/06/08 I 23.43 24.08 -.02 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/09/08 I 23.30 24.05 -.73 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/10/08 I 22.94 23.99 -.82 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/11/08 I 22.62 23.93 -.78 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/12/08 I ----- 23.85 -.96 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/06/08 F 12.12 101.48 +.10 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/09/08 F 12.07 101.39 -.03 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/10/08 F 11.99 101.29 -.23 -.65 +.25 SELL IF IN
6/11/08 F 12.03 101.22 -.29 -. 65 +.50 WAIT
6/12/08 F ----- 101.12 -.65 -.50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Could this be another one of those one day wonders? Market blasts off only to give back all the gains the next session? The markets are oversold and entitled to a bounce. Will it be sustainable? Although we may get a few bounces here and there I believe they should be shorted (sold). The S&P500 could very well move down into the 1280-1300 level. At that point a possible intermediate term bottom could form. It’s going to be tough going with the thought of higher global interest rates going forward. I don’t think I want to waste an IFT on this bounce, we will be going lower the current trend is still down..
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.19. It is a HOLD IF YOU ARE IN Today. It is possible to go down to -.70 so buying here may be a little premature. My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived and shorted. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 1-2 weeks. Possible level for a small bounce is 1327. Most likely going down to 1280-1300.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.26. It can move down to -.60 so buying here would be a little premature. In time of desperation the reading can go as low as -.90. This fund is WAIT today for lower prices although on the 11th it was very close to a BUY IF YOU DARE! It is below it’s 20 day moving average which is a bad sign and it’s longer term momentum chart is now falling which simply means rallies most likely will not be sustainable. I’m expecting falling momentum for 1-2 weeks.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.62 and is a HOLD. For four days it was BUY IF YOU DARE! And is very oversold. In times of desperation the reading can go down to -1.00 before rallying but the first rally is usually just a dead cat bounce.
My longer term momentum chart is falling so rallies should be short lived (1-3 days). I’m expecting negative momentum to continue for 1-2 weeks.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.46. It is a HOLD today. In times of desperation it can go down to -1.00. Buying here could be a little premature. Inflation is taking its toll on bonds. The longer term chart (AGG) appears to have topped out and it is now looking quite negative. I thought we would get some kind of a bounce maybe this is it. I’ve adjusted the BUY BELOW parameter to -.65 to reflect a very weak market.
I am currently 100% G (since 5/21/08) and will remain there for now. The I fund is interesting but I don’t believe the rally it may experience will be sustainable as its longer term momentum chart is falling. I prefer to wait for a better buy signal in the stock funds, one that will offer something better than a 2-3 day bounce. As of 6/12/08 I am #4 in the tracker with a return of +.7.47% since 3/11/08. Although we may have a knee jerk rally for a day or two, I believe the stock market can still head down again. Buyer beware!!!
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (5/28/08) for the stock funds to reflect the fact that my longer term momentum charts are negative (falling). These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Once the longer term charts turn back up (in about 2-4 weeks) than I will set the parameters back to reflect rising markets. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when the parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in my longer term momentum charts.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/09/08 C 15.51 1395.35 -.21 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/10/08 C 15.47 1393.10 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/11/08 C 15.21 1389.72 -.53 -.40 +.10 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/12/08 C 15.26 1386.28 -.20 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN
6/13/08 C ----- 1382.91 -.09 -.40 +.10 HOLD IF IN

6/09/08 S 19.47 19.52 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/10/08 S 19.34 19.52 -.38 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/11/08 S 19.02 19.51 -.54 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/12/08 S 19.04 19.49 -.42 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/13/08 S ----- 19.47 -.26 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/09/08 I 23.30 24.05 -.73 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/10/08 I 22.94 23.99 -.82 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/11/08 I 22.62 23.93 -.78 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/12/08 I 22.57 23.85 -.96 -.65 +.20 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/13/08 I ----- 23.76 -.62 -.65 +.20 HOLD IF IN

6/09/08 F 12.07 101.39 -.03 -.50 +.50 HOLD IF IN
6/10/08 F 11.99 101.29 -.23 -.65 +.25 SELL IF IN
6/11/08 F 12.03 101.22 -.29 -. 65 +.50 WAIT
6/12/08 F 11.95 101.11 -.65 -.50 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/13/08 F ----- 100.99 -.46 -.50 +.50 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U