Here's14U's Account Talk

[Buster]

Yes indeed..thank you

 

[Guest2]

Ditto my friend, that's alot of work you do.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Thanks for the kind words folks, I do have the time to do this, I would be doing it anyway so I'm glad to share it with you.
I remember mentioning that there was the possibility that the S&P500 could go down to retest 1280-1300. It certainly looks like a possibility now. $VIX (fear level) is up today threatening a breakout to a high which could be a real problem for the stock market. The economic news is not good today either.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.28. It is a WAIT Today. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average (1359.27) which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I guess we go back down to test March lows. Last week’s rally failed so we can expect more weakness IMO. 1280-1300 is in the realm of possibility..
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.53. Today it is almost BUY IF YOU DARE! It is now below it’s 20 day moving average which is a not a good sign. Extreme caution is warranted.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.43 and is almost BUY IF YOU DARE! Even though the system is saying HOLD today we could move lower as last week’s rally failed. It is also below its 20 day moving average. Extreme caution is warranted.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.58. It is a SELL today (overbought). Should it get above 100.21 (20 day moving average) the bear trend could be over. Jury still out.
As of 6/23/08 I am #9 in the tracker with a return of +4.45% since 3/11/08. I will be sitting in the G fund the rest of the month.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/20/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they are still in a bear trend. They are all below their respective 20 day moving averages which could last longer than expected. These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from up to down in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/18/08 C 15.24 1372.28 -.12 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/19/08 C 15.30 1369.88 -.11 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/20/08 C 15.02 1366.06 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/23/08 C 15.02 1363.17 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/24/08 C ----- 1359.27 -.28 -.40 +.10 WAIT

6/18/08 S 19.31 19.45 -.07 -.10 +.40 HOLD
6/19/08 S 19.40 19.46 -.10 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/20/08 S 19.10 19.45 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/23/08 S 18.98 19.44 -.21 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/24/08 S ----- 19.41 -.53 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/18/08 I 22.80 23.51 -.15 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/19/08 I 22.54 23.43 -.19 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/20/08 I 22.18 23.32 -.25 -.65 +.20 WAIT/I’m Selling
6/23/08 I 22.14 23.22 -.53 -.45 +.45 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/24/08 I ----- 23.13 -.43 -.45 +.45 HOLD

6/18/08 F 12.02 100.60 +.11 -. 65 +.25 HOLD
6/19/08 F 11.99 100.47 +.39 -.50 +.50 HOLD
6/20/08 F 12.02 100.38 +.59 -.50 +.50 SELL
6/23/08 F 11.99 100.27 +.44 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/24/08 F ----- 100.21 +.58 -.50 +.50 SELL
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.12. It is a WAIT Today. This fund is Below it’s 20 day moving average (1356.17) which will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I guess we go back down to test March lows. Last week’s rally failed so we can expect more weakness IMO. 1280-1300 is in the realm of possibility..
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.44. Today it is WAIT It is below it’s 20 day moving average which is a not a good sign. Extreme caution is warranted.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.56 and is WAIT. It is also below its 20 day moving average. Extreme caution is warranted.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.47. It is a WAIT today (overbought). Should it get above 100.15 (20 day moving average) the bear trend could be over. Jury still out.
As of 6/24/08 I am #9 in the tracker with a return of +4.54% since 3/11/08. I will be sitting in the G fund the rest of June.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/20/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they are still in a bear trend. They are all below their respective 20 day moving averages which could last longer than expected. These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from up to down in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/19/08 C 15.30 1369.88 -.11 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/20/08 C 15.02 1366.06 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/23/08 C 15.02 1363.17 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/24/08 C 14.97 1359.61 -.28 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/25/08 C ----- 1356.17 -.12 -.40 +.10 WAIT

6/19/08 S 19.40 19.46 -.10 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/20/08 S 19.10 19.45 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/23/08 S 18.98 19.44 -.21 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/24/08 S 18.73 19.41 -.53 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/25/08 S ----- 19.38 -.44 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/19/08 I 22.54 23.43 -.19 -.45 +.45 HOLD
6/20/08 I 22.18 23.32 -.25 -.65 +.20 WAIT/I’m Selling
6/23/08 I 22.14 23.22 -.53 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/24/08 I 22.16 23.14 -.43 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/25/08 I ----- 23.03 -.56 -.65 +.20 WAIT

6/19/08 F 11.99 100.47 +.39 -.50 +.50 HOLD
6/20/08 F 12.02 100.38 +.59 -.50 +.50 SELL
6/23/08 F 11.99 100.27 +.44 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/24/08 F 12.02 100.20 +.58 -.50 +.50 SELL
6/25/08 F ----- 100.15 +.47 -. 50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Weak stocks are far outpacing the leadership stocks which is not a good omen according to stocktiming.com. Oil is up. The AGG however may have put in a bottom as it‘s longer term momentum chart has started back up.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.24. It is a WAIT today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1351.44) which is falling and will most likely act as upside resistance should we rally. I guess we go back down to test March lows. Last week’s rally failed so we can expect more weakness IMO. 1280-1300 is in the realm of possibility.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.51. Today it is WAIT but very close to a BUY IF YOU DARE! It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 19.33) which is falling. Extreme caution is warranted.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.19 and is WAIT. It is also below its 20 day moving average ( tsp 22.97) which is falling. Extreme caution is warranted.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.49. It is a WAIT today (overbought). Should the AGG move above 100.13 (20 day moving average) a new bull trend could emerge. Jury still out.
As of 6/25/08 I am #9 in the tracker with a return of +4.54% since 3/11/08. I will be sitting in the G fund the rest of June.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/20/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they are still in a bear trend. They are all below their respective 20 day moving averages which could last longer than expected. These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from up to down in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/20/08 C 15.02 1366.06 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/23/08 C 15.02 1363.17 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/24/08 C 14.97 1359.61 -.28 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/25/08 C 15.06 1356.17 -.12 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/26/08 C ----- 1351.44 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT

6/20/08 S 19.10 19.45 -.20 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/23/08 S 18.98 19.44 -.21 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/24/08 S 18.73 19.41 -.53 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/25/08 S 18.87 19.38 -.44 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/26/08 S ----- 19.33 -.51 -.55 +.00 WAIT

6/20/08 I 22.18 23.32 -.25 -.65 +.20 WAIT/I’m Selling
6/23/08 I 22.14 23.22 -.53 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/24/08 I 22.16 23.14 -.43 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/25/08 I 22.41 23.05 -.56 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/26/08 I ----- 22.97 -.19 -.65 +.20 WAIT

6/20/08 F 12.02 100.38 +.59 -.50 +.50 SELL
6/23/08 F 11.99 100.27 +.44 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/24/08 F 12.02 100.20 +.58 -.50 +.50 SELL
6/25/08 F 12.02 100.16 +.47 -. 50 +.50 WAIT
6/26/08 F ----- 100.13 +.49 -.50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Weak stocks are far outpacing the leadership stocks which is not a good omen according to stocktiming.com. Oil is up again. The AGG however may have put in a bottom as it‘s longer term momentum chart has started back up. Although stocks are due for a possible bounce I can’t see them getting very far in this market environment.
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.30. It is a WAIT Today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1344.74). Upside resistance is around 1319. Rallies will be shorted IMO. I guess we go back down to test March lows eventually. Should 1280 not hold next downside target would be 1257 this year’s low level.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.54. Today it is close enough for BUY IF YOU DARE! It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 19.25) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 18.97. Extreme caution is warranted.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.42 and is WAIT. It is also below its 20 day moving average (tsp 22.84) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 22.32. Extreme caution is warranted.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.40. It is a WAIT today (overbought very short term). Should the AGG move above 100.09 (20 day moving average) a new bull trend could emerge. It was 100.08 as I wrote this. Jury still out.
As of 6/26/08 I am #9 in the tracker with a return of +4.54% since 3/11/08. I will be sitting in the G fund the rest of June.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/20/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they are still in a bear trend. They are all below their respective 20 day moving averages which could last longer than expected. These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from up to down in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/23/08 C 15.02 1363.17 -.19 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/24/08 C 14.97 1359.61 -.28 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/25/08 C 15.06 1356.17 -.12 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/26/08 C 14.62 1350.41 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/27/08 C ----- 1344.74 -.30 -.40 +.10 WAIT

6/23/08 S 18.98 19.44 -.21 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/24/08 S 18.73 19.41 -.53 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/25/08 S 18.87 19.38 -.44 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/26/08 S 18.41 19.32 -.51 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/27/08 S ----- 19.25 -.54 -.55 +.00 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/23/08 I 22.14 23.22 -.53 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/24/08 I 22.16 23.14 -.43 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/25/08 I 22.41 23.05 -.56 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/26/08 I 21.89 22.95 -.19 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/27/08 I ----- 22.84 -.42 -.65 +.20 WAIT

6/23/08 F 11.99 100.27 +.44 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/24/08 F 12.02 100.20 +.58 -.50 +.50 SELL
6/25/08 F 12.02 100.16 +.47 -. 50 +.50 WAIT
6/26/08 F 12.06 100.13 +.49 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/27/08 F ----- 100.09 +.40 -.50 +.50 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[RonUSPSretired]

You mentioned, in a recent thread, that you were considering moving your funds to a brokerage accnt. Would you care to share the firm you picked and why. I've been considering the same but can't make up my mind who to go with. Thanks for your input. I read your thread daily.--ron

 

[Heres14U]

Hello Ron;
Originally I was with E-Trade with my IRA. At that time (4yrs ago or so) their commissions were $12.95 per trade. I started looking for a less expensive broker and came across Firstrade. I switched over to Firstrade ($6.95 per trade) with my IRA mainly because of the commision savings. I have nothing against E-Trade they were fine except for the commissions at that time and they may be less now. I have recently opened a IRA rollover account with Firstrade to deposit my TSP into. The website explains how to do this and can be done on line rather quickly. I am just waiting for some paperwork from Firstrade to forward to TSP. (TSP Form TSP-70). Its in the works and may take some time but will be well worth it. I'll be able to trade Proshares (SDS, EFU etc. to take advantage of downward slides in the market) to go short as well as take advantage of uptrends in the indexes. Hope this helps, Good Luck Ron.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning:
Because I will be moving my TSP over to a brokerage I will be discontinuing my usual posts. However I will still provide information as to what I am doing with my account and what I think the best investiment is for the TSP at the time.
Currently the F-fund has started an uptrend so I think that is the place to be at this time. The stock funds C,S, & I are still below their respective 20 day moving averages and could head lower after a bounce. Currently I'm in the G-fund awaiting the TSP transfer to my Brokerage IRA.
Good Luck to you all!

 

[Gumby]

Here's14U

I appreciate your posts and analysis. I hope you continue to provide the buy and sell parameters for the TSP funds. I like your perspective.

Good luck in your future trading.

 

[nsurf9]

What were the criteria for the Gov that allows you roll the funds to the new brokerage?

 

[RonUSPSretired]

Thanks so much for sharing, Here's14U. It's my hope that you will choose to share suggestions regularly on the brokerage fund trades, as you did for the TSP funds. It would be most helpful for those of us who are about to enter that arena for the first time. I know I should have done my research before I retired, but oh well live and learn. Thanks again.--Ron

Hello Ron;
Originally I was with E-Trade with my IRA. At that time (4yrs ago or so) their commissions were $12.95 per trade. I started looking for a less expensive broker and came across Firstrade. I switched over to Firstrade ($6.95 per trade) with my IRA mainly because of the commision savings. I have nothing against E-Trade they were fine except for the commissions at that time and they may be less now. I have recently opened a IRA rollover account with Firstrade to deposit my TSP into. The website explains how to do this and can be done on line rather quickly. I am just waiting for some paperwork from Firstrade to forward to TSP. (TSP Form TSP-70). Its in the works and may take some time but will be well worth it. I'll be able to trade Proshares (SDS, EFU etc. to take advantage of downward slides in the market) to go short as well as take advantage of uptrends in the indexes. Hope this helps, Good Luck Ron.

 

[pattidiva1]

Here's14U

I appreciate your posts and analysis. I hope you continue to provide the buy and sell parameters for the TSP funds. I like your perspective.

Good luck in your future trading.

I agree with Gumby. I, too, hope you continue to provide the buy/sell parameters for the TSP funds. It's very helpful to my and your perspective is much appreciated!

 

[nnuut]

Thanks for your input, it has been very informative, and please continue. I read your posts every day, GREAT STUFF!
Best of luck with your investments
Norman

 

[nasa1974]

Good Luck 14,

Looked forward to reading your account before deciding if I should make a move or not. Hope to see you around. Thanks again.

 

[Steadygain]

Here's14U,
First your name alone shows you are a very cool dude. That's a classic - one of the best!

Second - you have a style that is thorough and unique. Whether it is solid and sound or wimsy and FOS makes little difference. The fact is it appears to be something that represents a lot of thought and reflects on a daily basis something to help "us all" weigh our decisions.

Third - it is all the more appealing that you are not drawing attention to yourself and that "you have the Markets figured out" - but rather you're giving a tool that deals with each and every fund.

My guess is with the time and energy you have to invest in contributing all this information - we will probably lose your influence as you transfer the TSP to the private sector (and I certainly can understand that).

In the event you do leave us - I want you to know that I have very much admired your style and all the more admire your decision to take the TSP fully into your own hands. I sincerely believe you will do very well and hope you achieve the best returns possible in the years to come.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
First of all I want to thank you all for the kind words of encouragement. In case if you are unaware (nsurf9) I retired from Federal Service last year and have the option to rollover my TSP into an IRA. I have opted to do that, it is in the works, (TSP-70 sent to TSP yesterday) and should have been done at least four months ago. There is a great group of very knowledgeable people on this message board all helping each other to reach retirement goals. The two IFT restriction thing finally encouraged me to rollover my TSP as I think it is a disgrace. This will hinder greatly your TSP performance as you only have one shot a month to increase your retirement fund. Unless you are Criss Angel, making money in this bear market will be hard enough, never mind with the TSP IFT limits. Anyway, thanks again, I’m not going away, I enjoy posting here, and if my posts help you, that’s all that counts. On to the markets.
I'm going into the S fund today in the tracker to play a bounce. The AGG may have put in a bottom as it‘s longer term momentum chart has started back up but if stocks bounce the F-fund could suffer somewhat. Although we are due for a possible bounce I can’t see it getting very far in the market environment, we'll see how it goes, can't tell till you bet!
I use Stockcharts.com symbols and Yahoo for DWCP.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.19. It is a WAIT Today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1344.74). Upside resistance is around 1303. Rallies will be shorted IMO. I guess we go back down to test March lows eventually. Should 1270 not hold next downside target would be 1257 this year’s low level. I would think a bounce is due soon. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward. Possible bounce coming.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.53. Today it is close enough for BUY IF YOU DARE! It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 19.11) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 18.70. Extreme caution is warranted. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward. Possible bounce coming. In the tracker I will be going 100% S fund today for a bounce. My real TSP is in G as it is currently in transition to a rollover IRA.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.23 and is WAIT. It is also below its 20 day moving average ( tsp 22.66) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 22.13. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward. Possible bounce coming.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.42. It is a WAIT today (overbought). The AGG broke above its 20 day moving average (100.10) on Friday. Downside support around 100.02. This is a bullish sign so I am adjusting the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish posture.
As of 6/30/08 I am #9 in the tracker with a return of +4.54% since 3/11/08. I will stay in the G fund as my TSP is in transition to a rollover IRA with Firstrade. In the tracker however I will be going 100% S today.
I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters on (6/20/08) for the stock funds to reflect my belief that they are still in a bear trend. They are all below their respective 20 day moving averages which could last longer than expected. These adjustments would allow us to buy at lower prices and throw a sell signal quicker than usual for a very short term (few days) play. Sorry for the confusion but there are times when these parameters have to be reset to reflect a change in trend (from up to down in this case).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
6/25/08 C 15.06 1356.17 -.12 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/26/08 C 14.62 1350.41 -.24 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/27/08 C 14.57 1344.31 -.30 -.40 +.10 WAIT
6/30/08 C 14.59 1339.03 -.27 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/01/08 C ----- 1334.08 -.19 -.10 +.30 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/25/08 S 18.87 19.38 -.44 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/26/08 S 18.41 19.32 -.51 -.55 +.00 WAIT
6/27/08 S 18.38 19.25 -.54 -.55 +.00 BUY IF YOU DARE!
6/30/08 S 18.27 19.18 -.51 -.55 +.00 HOLD
7/01/08 S ----- 19.11 -.53 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/25/08 I 22.41 23.05 -.56 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/26/08 I 21.89 22.95 -.19 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/27/08 I 21.98 22.85 -.42 -.65 +.20 WAIT
6/30/08 I 22.09 22.76 -.12 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/01/08 I ----- 22.66 -.23 -.10 +.50 BUY IF YOU DARE!

6/25/08 F 12.02 100.16 +.47 -. 50 +.50 WAIT
6/26/08 F 12.06 100.13 +.49 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/27/08 F 12.07 100.10 +.40 -.50 +.50 WAIT
6/30/08 F 12.08 100.07 +.72 +.10 +.60 SELL
7/01/08 F ----- 100.03 +.42 +.10 +.60 WAIT
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[fedgolfer]

Here's14u,

Thanks for your ideas... I agree with you that there's a good chance for a short term bounce. Let's hope the buying spreads. I'm still shaky on the idea and may bail though!!!

 

[Corepuncher]

Here's14u,

Thanks for your ideas... I agree with you that there's a good chance for a short term bounce. Let's hope the buying spreads. I'm still shaky on the idea and may bail though!!!

I'm shaky enough just being 50/50 in stocks. I guess its a good place to be because I can't decide if I wanna buy or sell at the moment. If we crash, I guess I'll go all in, but if we rally, I'll definitely sell!

So far so good, we have held this morning despite a big selloff in EURO. If we hold tody and close in the green, this mornings little "dip" may be considered an ultra-short-term bottom! And I do mean ULTRA! My gut tells me that with a headline ISM above 50, the big selloff in Europe, and also the "upgrade" to price targets of Lehman, etc, that we are geared up for a bounce. We have crude inventories tomorrow, I'm guessing it is bearish for crude and stocks, predictably, rally. AGG/Ffund is already pulling back down after topping near 100.5, so where is the money gonna go? Stocks! Lets get a nice reversal later today...

 

[luv2read]

I'm shaky enough just being 50/50 in stocks. I guess its a good place to be because I can't decide if I wanna buy or sell at the moment. If we crash, I guess I'll go all in, but if we rally, I'll definitely sell!

So far so good, we have held this morning despite a big selloff in EURO. If we hold tody and close in the green, this mornings little "dip" may be considered an ultra-short-term bottom! And I do mean ULTRA! My gut tells me that with a headline ISM above 50, the big selloff in Europe, and also the "upgrade" to price targets of Lehman, etc, that we are geared up for a bounce. We have crude inventories tomorrow, I'm guessing it is bearish for crude and stocks, predictably, rally. AGG/Ffund is already pulling back down after topping near 100.5, so where is the money gonna go? Stocks! Lets get a nice reversal later today...

the money will probably go into commodities especially OIL as it has been....but lets hope it goes into stocks.