Here's14U's Account Talk

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
In the tracker I am in the F fund. My real TSP is in the G fund as it is currently in transition to a rollover brokerage IRA. With oil down yesterday I thought the stock markets would have quite a rally, instead they sold off toward the close. I still think rallies will be sold short. Of course I could be wrong but I think we are headed to a capitulation sell off which may be this week or next week. There is a total loss of confidence in our financial system IMO. Stocks may look cheap but they could get a lot cheaper so all I can say is buyer beware! Fear is ruling the roost at this time.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at -.13. It is a WAIT today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1276.36) Upside resistance is around 1243. Extreme caution is warranted. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more Bearish picture going forward.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at -.11. Today it is WAIT It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 18.14) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 17.47. Extreme caution is warranted. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bearish picture going forward.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at -.28 and is WAIT!. It is also below its 20 day moving average ( tsp 21.70) which is falling. Upside resistance is around tsp 21.18. Extreme caution is warranted. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bearish picture going forward.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is +.18. It is a HOLD today. Longer term it is looking very good. The AGG is above its 20 day moving average (100.12) as I write. It is above its support at 100.35. I am still bullish on AGG hence the bullish parameters.
As of 7/15/08 I am #17 in the tracker with a return of +1.04% since 3/11/08. I am in the G fund as my TSP is in transition to a rollover IRA . In the tracker however, I am in the F fund.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
7/10/08 C 14.30 1301.94 -.09 -.10 +.30 HOLD
7/11/08 C 14.14 1296.92 -.22 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/14/08 C 14.02 1290.33 -.05 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/15/08 C 13.87 1283.07 -.16 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/16/08 C ----- 1276.36 -.13 -.40 +.10 WAIT

7/10/08 S 17.60 18.54 -.25 -.10 +.40 BUY IF YOU DARE!
7/11/08 S 17.58 18.46 -.22 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/14/08 S 17.38 18.36 -.05 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/15/08 S 17.23 18.25 -.44 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/16/08 S ----- 18.14 -.11 -.55 +.00 WAIT

7/10/08 I 21.31 22.08 -.07 -.10 +.50 HOLD
7/11/08 I 21.08 22.00 -.22 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/14/08 I 21.11 21.92 -.05 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/15/08 I 20.67 21.81 -.26 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/16/08 I ----- 21.70 -.28 -.65 +.20 WAIT

7/10/08 F 12.18 99.91 +.61 +.10 +.60 SELL ALL OR SOME
7/11/08 F 12.11 99.95 +.72 +.10 +.60 SELL ALL OR SOME
7/14/08 F 12.16 100.01 +.53 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/15/08 F 12.17 100.08 +.56 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/16/08 F ----- 100.12 +.18 +.10 +.60 HOLD
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
After yesterday’s big up move, I’m going to assume we may have a rally phase for a few weeks, so I have adjusted the Sell Above and Buy Below parameters for the C, S, and I funds to bullish mode. My thoughts are we may go up the next few days then have a small push down, allowing stock fund purchases at that time. We are still in a bear market however, so this rally may only go up about 5% from the bottom then turn south again so extreme caution is the watchword.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at +.18. It is a WAIT today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1273.34) Downside support is around 1244. Extreme caution is warranted. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more Bullish picture going forward.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at +.35. Today it is WAIT It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 18.09) which is falling. Downside support is around tsp 17.52. Extreme caution is warranted. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at +.31 and is WAIT!. It is also below its 20 day moving average ( tsp 21.64) which is falling. Downside support is around tsp 21.18. Extreme caution is warranted. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.30. It is a BUY today. Longer term it is still looking good. The AGG is below its 20 day moving average (100.09) as I write. It is below its support at 100.34. I am still bullish on AGG hence the bullish parameters.
As of 7/16/08 I am #24 in the tracker with a return of +.48 since 3/11/08. I am in the G fund as my TSP is in transition to a rollover IRA . In the tracker however, I am in the F fund with one IFT left for this month, how disappointing.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
7/11/08 C 14.14 1296.92 -.22 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/14/08 C 14.02 1290.33 -.05 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/15/08 C 13.87 1283.07 -.16 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/16/08 C 14.21 1277.79 -.13 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/17/08 C ----- 1273.34 +.18 -.10 +.30 WAIT

7/11/08 S 17.58 18.46 -.22 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/14/08 S 17.38 18.36 -.05 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/15/08 S 17.23 18.25 -.44 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/16/08 S 17.70 18.16 -.11 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/17/08 S ----- 18.09 +.35 -.10 +.40 WAIT

7/11/08 I 21.08 22.00 -.22 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/14/08 I 21.11 21.92 -.05 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/15/08 I 20.67 21.81 -.26 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/16/08 I 20.98 21.71 -.28 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/17/08 I ----- 21.64 +.31 -.10 +.50 WAIT

7/11/08 F 12.11 99.95 +.72 +.10 +.60 SELL ALL OR SOME
7/14/08 F 12.16 100.01 +.53 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/15/08 F 12.17 100.08 +.56 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/16/08 F 12.10 100.10 +.18 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/17/08 F ----- 100.09 -.30 +.10 +.60 BUY
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
After yesterday’s big up move, I’m going to assume we may have a rally phase for a few weeks, so I have adjusted the Sell Above and Buy Below parameters for the C, S, and I funds to bullish mode. My thoughts are we may go up the next few days then have a small push down, allowing stock fund purchases at that time. We are still in a bear market however, so this rally may only go up about 5% from the bottom then turn south again so extreme caution is the watchword.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at +.22. It is a WAIT today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1269.54) Downside support is around 1246. Yesterday’s close was a +.28 very close to a Sell. Extreme caution is warranted as we are still in a bear market. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more Bullish picture going forward.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at +.34. Today it is WAIT It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 18.01) which is falling. Downside support is around tsp 17.61. Yesterday’s close was a +.45 which was above it's Sell Above parameter. Extreme caution is warranted as we are still in a bear market. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at +.27 and is WAIT!. It is also below its 20 day moving average ( tsp 21.57) which is falling. Downside support is around tsp 21.14. Yesterday’s close was a +.29. Extreme caution is warranted as we are still in a bear market. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.45. It is a BUY today. Longer term it is still looking good. The AGG is below its 20 day moving average (100.08) as I write. Upside resistance is at about 100.27 Yesterday’s close was -.60. I am still bullish on AGG hence the bullish parameters.
As of 7/16/08 I am #24 in the tracker with a return of +.48 since 3/11/08. I am in the G fund as my TSP is in transition to a rollover IRA . In the tracker however, I am in the F fund with one IFT left for this month, how disappointing.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
7/14/08 C 14.02 1290.33 -.05 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/15/08 C 13.87 1283.07 -.16 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/16/08 C 14.21 1277.79 -.13 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/17/08 C 14.39 1273.92 +.18 -.10 +.30 WAIT
7/18/08 C ----- 1269.54 +.22 -.10 +.30 WAIT

7/14/08 S 17.38 18.36 -.05 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/15/08 S 17.23 18.25 -.44 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/16/08 S 17.70 18.16 -.11 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/17/08 S 17.89 18.09 +.35 -.10 +.40 WAIT
7/18/08 S ----- 18.01 +.34 -.10 +.40 WAIT

7/14/08 I 21.11 21.92 -.05 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/15/08 I 20.67 21.81 -.26 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/16/08 I 20.98 21.71 -.28 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/17/08 I 21.24 21.64 +.31 -.10 +.50 WAIT
7/18/08 I ----- 21.57 +.27 -.10 +.50 WAIT

7/14/08 F 12.16 100.01 +.53 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/15/08 F 12.17 100.08 +.56 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/16/08 F 12.10 100.10 +.18 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/17/08 F 12.02 100.07 -.30 +.10 +.60 BUY
7/18/08 F ----- 100.08 -.45 +.10 +.60 BUY
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Don’t fall in love with this rally, is what I am reading over the weekend. We are still in a bear market and rallies will continue to be shorted. This morning I am getting very overbought 11am readings on the three stock funds so if I were in them I would be selling them today. The rally was mainly due to oil coming down in price but the main problems, in the financial and housing sectors are still with us. Availability of credit and lower home prices, will crimp consumer spending for quite a while not to mention the uncertainty of the number of failing banks.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at +.30. It is a SELL today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1267.05) Downside support is around 1245. Friday’s close was a +.27 very close to a Sell. Extreme caution is warranted as we are still in a bear market. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more Bullish picture going forward as the up trend is still intact but overbought very short term.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at +.43. It is a SELL today. It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 17.96) which is falling. Downside support is around tsp 17.63. Friday’s close was +.36. Extreme caution is warranted as we are still in a bear market. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward as the up trend is still intact but overbought very short term.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at +.55 and is SELL!. It is also below its 20 day moving average (tsp 21.54) which is falling. Downside support is around tsp 21.17. Friday’s close was a +.40. Extreme caution is warranted as we are still in a bear market. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward as the uptrend is still intact but overbought very short term.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.63. It is a BUY today. Longer term it is still looking good. The AGG is below its 20 day moving average (100.01) as I write. Upside resistance is at about 100.08. Friday’s close was -1.05 a very extreme oversold reading. Inflation is a big problem so I will be looking to exit this fund in the tracker should it move up from here in coming days.
As of 7/18/08 I am #32 in the tracker with a return of -.57% since 3/11/08. I am in the G fund as my TSP is in transition to a rollover IRA . In the tracker however, I am in the F fund with one IFT left for this month, how disappointing.
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
7/15/08 C 13.87 1283.07 -.16 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/16/08 C 14.21 1277.79 -.13 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/17/08 C 14.39 1273.92 +.18 -.10 +.30 WAIT
7/18/08 C 14.39 1269.81 +.22 -.10 +.30 WAIT
7/21/08 C ----- 1267.05 +.30 -.10 +.30 SELL

7/15/08 S 17.23 18.25 -.44 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/16/08 S 17.70 18.16 -.11 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/17/08 S 17.89 18.09 +.35 -.10 +.40 WAIT
7/18/08 S 17.86 18.01 +.34 -.10 +.40 WAIT
7/21/08 S ----- 17.96 +.43 -.10 +.40 SELL

7/15/08 I 20.67 21.81 -.26 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/16/08 I 20.98 21.71 -.28 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/17/08 I 21.24 21.64 +.31 -.10 +.50 WAIT
7/18/08 I 21.33 21.58 +.27 -.10 +.50 WAIT
7/21/08 I ----- 21.54 +.55 -.10 +.50 SELL

7/15/08 F 12.17 100.08 +.56 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/16/08 F 12.10 100.10 +.18 +.10 +.60 HOLD
7/17/08 F 12.02 100.07 -.30 +.10 +.60 BUY
7/18/08 F 11.98 100.04 -.45 +.10 +.60 BUY
7/21/08 F ----- 100.01 -.63 +.10 +.60 BUY
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The rally was mainly due to oil coming down in price but the main problems, in the financial and housing sectors are still with us. Availability of credit and lower home prices, will crimp consumer spending for quite a while not to mention the uncertainty of the number of failing banks.
The C-fund ($SPX) reading is at +.21. It is a WAIT today. This fund is still below it’s 20 day moving average (1263.80) Downside support is around 1246. Monday’s close was a +.27 very close to a Sell. Extreme caution is warranted as we are still in a bear market. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more Bullish picture going forward as the up trend is still intact but overbought very short term.
The S fund (DWCP) reading is at +.35. It is a WAIT today. It is below it’s 20 day moving average (tsp 17.91) which is falling. Downside support is around tsp 17.69. Monday’s close was +.51. Extreme caution is warranted as we are still in a bear market. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward as the up trend is still intact but overbought very short term.
The I-fund ($IEE) reading is at +.41. It is a WAIT today. It is below its 20 day moving average (tsp 21.51) which is falling. Downside support is around tsp 21.19. Monday’s close was a +.65. Extreme caution is warranted as we are still in a bear market. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a more bullish picture going forward as the up trend is still intact but overbought very short term.
The F-fund (AGG) reading is -.38. It is a SELL today. Longer term has switched to negative. The AGG is below its 20 day moving average (100.00) as I write. Upside resistance is at about 99.94. Inflation will be a big problem going forward so I will be going to the G fund for tomorrow in the tracker for the rest of the month. I have adjusted the Buy Below and Sell Above parameters to reflect a bearish picture going forward as inflation heats up (bad for bonds).
As of 7/21/08 I am #31 in the tracker with a return of -.35% since 3/11/08. I am in the G fund as my TSP is in transition to a rollover IRA . In the tracker however, I moving out of the F fund and going to the G fund for the rest of the month (3rd IFT for July).
There are no guarantees that the funds will hit their respective Buy Below or Sell Above parameters but the whole idea is to try to sell before everyone else does, preserve your funds, and be patient enough to wait for the 11am Reading to get back below the Buy Below parameter before buying a fund. Quick selling and patience are the keys to being successful in this market. Any comments or suggestions are most welcome.
Good Luck!
------------ Share 20dy 11am Buy Sell Today’s
Date Fund Price ma Read Below Above Rec
7/16/08 C 14.21 1277.79 -.13 -.40 +.10 WAIT
7/17/08 C 14.39 1273.92 +.18 -.10 +.30 WAIT
7/18/08 C 14.39 1269.81 +.22 -.10 +.30 WAIT
7/21/08 C 14.38 1266.91 +.30 -.10 +.30 SELL
7/22/08 C ----- 1263.80 +.21 -.10 +.30 WAIT

7/16/08 S 17.70 18.16 -.11 -.55 +.00 WAIT
7/17/08 S 17.89 18.09 +.35 -.10 +.40 WAIT
7/18/08 S 17.86 18.01 +.34 -.10 +.40 WAIT
7/21/08 S 18.04 17.96 +.43 -.10 +.40 SELL
7/22/08 S ----- 17.91 +.35 -.10 +.40 WAIT

7/16/08 I 20.98 21.71 -.28 -.65 +.20 WAIT
7/17/08 I 21.24 21.64 +.31 -.10 +.50 WAIT
7/18/08 I 21.33 21.58 +.27 -.10 +.50 WAIT
7/21/08 I 21.61 21.55 +.55 -.10 +.50 SELL
7/22/08 I ----- 21.51 +.41 -.10 +.50 WAIT

7/16/08 F 12.10 100.10 +.18 -.10 +.60 HOLD
7/17/08 F 12.02 100.07 -.30 -.10 +.60 BUY
7/18/08 F 11.98 100.04 -.45 -.10 +.60 BUY
7/21/08 F 11.99 100.02 -.63 -.10 +.60 BUY
7/22/08 F ----- 100.00 -.04 -.50 +.50 SELL
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
BUY - Once the 11am READING number goes below the BUY BELOW number start your buy program as you are entering the buy zone and the fund is oversold. Either buy in completely, realizing there may be a couple more down days to go, or start dollar cost averaging into the fund.
BUY IF YOU DARE! - Longer term momentum chart is falling so expect a rally of only 2 or 3 days if that.
SELL - Once the 11am READING number goes above the SELL ABOVE number start your sell program.
Because we are currently in a bear market in the C, S, and I funds, I would recommend selling your complete position. Bear market rallies can turn on a dime and you will not have much of a topping process. If you are serious about following this system you should set up an Excel spreadsheet to plot these numbers and chart them. It would make the system come to life for you. You will then see where we have been, where we are going, and at what point the market is likely to top out, much more clearly.
SELL/WAIT - Sell your position in the fund and/or Wait for lower prices if you have already sold. Fund is most likely topping and will be trending down soon.
BUY/HOLD - Buy your position in the fund and/or Hold for higher prices if you have already bought. Fund is most likely bottoming and will be trending higher in coming days. It’s okay to add to your position providing the current 11am READING number is below its BUY BELOW number.
Notes:
Selling must be quick and decisive with the C, S, and I funds. Let the other investors fight for that last.half percent. By getting out early, preserving your capital, and being patient for the next buying opportunity you will be successful. This is of the utmost importance. Unlike bull markets, bear markets are unforgiving and don’t bail you out if you should make a mistake or stay in too long. If you start following this program you must try to monitor it every day to get a feel for it. Think of the 11am readings as an oscillator moving above and below a “0” centerline. During up trends the 11am readings will have trouble moving much below “0”. During downtrends the 11am readings will move to the negatives quickly. During a sideways market (channeling) buys and sells will happen regularly at support and resistance points. Please remember this system is just another tool to use to help you decide your investment decisions. These are just my thoughts and there are no guarantees of profit, just educated guesses as to where I think the funds are headed. Please also remember your final investment decision is your choice and responsibility. Hopefully we can make money and avoid disasters.
Good Luck to you all! Here’s14U
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Starting today, after a lot of contemplation last night, I’ve decided to try a new methodology which will be longer term in nature. There will be fewer buy and sell signals. I think it will be simpler and less confusing. There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is only based on the relationship between the 11am Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am Reading starts to stall at its overbought range or goes down in value towards its climbing respective 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund. That’s all there is to it!
If you could graph these two columns you would see it in action more clearly as time goes on. You have to make your decision before Noon EDT so this will be real quick and easy for you. Below the tables I’ll have explanations of the various Recommendations. Good Luck!
I’ll be moving to the S and I funds for tomorrow in the tracker as we still have more room to move to the upside.

--------------Share----11am--13dymov--Current
Date Fund-Price-----Read---Average--Trend & Recom
7/17/08 C 14.3855 -.143 -.412 Up-Positive-Hold
7/18/08 C 14.3903 -.045 -.376 Up-Positive-Hold
7/21/08 C 14.3830 +.009 -.339 Up-Positive-Hold
7/22/08 C 14.5770 +.125 -.290 Up-Positive-Hold
7/23/08 C 14.62est +.198 -.237 Up-Positive-Hold

7/17/08 S 17.8871 -.381 -.802 Up-Positive-Hold
7/18/08 S 17.8625 -.245 -.762 Up-Positive-Hold
7/21/08 S 18.0370 -.099 -.713 Up-Positive-Hold
7/22/08 S 18.2942 +.082 -.637 Up-Positive-Hold
7/23/08 S 18.32est +.196 -.547 Up-Positive-Hold

7/17/08 I 21.2411 -.258 -.560 Up-Positive-Hold
7/18/08 I 21.3266 -.114 -.518 Up-Positive-Hold
7/21/08 I 21.6069 +.079 -.458 Up-Positive-Hold
7/22/08 I 21.5255 +.148 -.390 Up-Positive-Hold
7/23/08 I 21.85est +.338 -.312 Up-Positive-Hold

7/17/08 F 12.0177 +.022 +.064 Down-Negative-Avoid
7/18/08 F 11.9760 -.010 +.061 Down-Negative-Avoid
7/21/08 F 11.9905 -.021 +.056 Down-Negative-Avoid
7/22/08 F 11.9720 -.035 +.050 Down-Negative-Avoid
7/23/08 F 11.97est -.040 +.043 Down-Negative-Avoid

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
UP-POSITIVE-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range..
DOWN-NEGATIVE-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range.
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Birchtree]

Longer term in nature - could you project something out into perhaps three years?

 

[Silverbird]

Longer term in nature - could you project something out into perhaps three years?

Three years? Even professionals fear to tread in those rareified heights. :blink: Plus, not everyone's got 3 years before retirement. I like 14's approach, personally.

 

[malyla]

Longer term in nature - could you project something out into perhaps three years?

8.6 year business cycle:toung:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/buscycle.htm

 

[XL-entLady]

Good Morning;
Starting today, after a lot of contemplation last night, I’ve decided to try a new methodology which will be longer term in nature. ...The Current Trend and Recommendation column is only based on the relationship between the 11am Reading and its 13 day moving average.

WONDERFUL, 14U!

Your new system is the exact one I've been using as my initial indicator for account movement since June 2003. But now you're doing the work instead of me!

My most sincere thanks!

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

That's excellent news for the entire MB as we can all the more know Lady will stay.

Thanks 14U - Very Cool

 

[malyla]

8.6 year business cycle:toung:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/buscycle.htm

Here's 14U,

I look at your trend (& thread) everyday and use it to determine when a rally may be ending or beginning. Good work. If Birchtree wants longer term he knows where to look (as per quote). It's as much voodoo as his insistence on the nonstarter of B&H:laugh:

Love the change you made. It works better in my opinion

 

[Heres14U]

Birch to answer your question predicting 2 or 3 years out just may be possible if I used monthly data rather than daily data. Predicting 1 year out might be possible using weekly data. Interesting thoughts but having the time to do it is another matter. Anyway we’ll use daily data for now to see how this system works. We should see 8-10 week cycles develop, great for TSPer's!
The 11am readings are now computed differently, without as much volatility. You will see them move steadily in one direction day after day until finally one day they will stall or go down depending on the fund. Time to get out if overbought! The bottoms seem to take longer to form allowing the 13 day moving average to flatten or even turn up slightly. Time to buy!
Tomorrow I will introduce the Over bought and Over sold ranges for the 4 funds so you will know when a change in trend is developing. These ranges will be important cautionary signals once the 11am readings breech them. Stay tuned! 14U

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
One other thing left to consider with the table below. In order to know if the 11 am Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Range means Overbought Range and OS Range means Over Sold Range in the column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am Reading greater than +.45 would fall into the Over Bought range so think about selling or at least lightening up on shares. An 11am Reading Less than -.45 would fall into the Over Sold range so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out and starts to move in the opposite direction. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am Reading fall, that would be my day to sell as most of the move has already taken place. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom. I’m currently 50I, 50S in the tracker and going to stay there for now.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
--------------Share---11am-13dymov-Trend-----OB-----OS
Date Fund-Price----Read--Average-& Recm--Range--Range
7/18/08 C 14.3903 -.045 -.376 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/21/08 C 14.3830 +.009 -.339 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/22/08 C 14.5770 +.125 -.290 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/23/08 C 14.6365 +.198 -.237 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/24/08 C 14.56est +.238 -.180 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45

7/18/08 S 17.8625 -.245 -.762 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/21/08 S 18.0370 -.099 -.713 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/22/08 S 18.2942 +.082 -.637 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/23/08 S 18.3049 +.196 -.547 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 S 18.15est +.222 -.449 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50

7/18/08 I 21.3266 -.114 -.518 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/21/08 I 21.6069 +.079 -.458 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/22/08 I 21.5255 +.148 -.390 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/23/08 I 21.7337 +.338 -.312 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 I 21.67est +.348 -.241 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50

7/18/08 F 11.9760 -.010 +.061 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/21/08 F 11.9905 -.021 +.056 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/22/08 F 11.9720 -.035 +.050 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/23/08 F 11.9619 -.040 +.043 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 F 11.94est -.056 +.034 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am Reading starts to stall at its overbought range or goes down in value towards its climbing respective 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range.
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Gumby]

Here's14U

You are doing a great job with your updates. I know you are spending a lot of time and effort and I really appreciate your insight and your sharing it with us.

 

[pattidiva1]

I "ditto" Gumby! Thanks!

 

[Steadygain]

Gumby set the motion - Patti seconded

The vote was thrown out - and it's UNANIMOUS

We all appreciate your ongoing endeavors and thus grant you The MB Leader Award.

Again, our sincerest thanks.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Previously, the system was more of a very short term trading system, now it is a longer term (10-week cycle, more or less, from top to top) trend following system. Expect dips as the system 13 day moving average numbers climb as the markets do not climb in a straight line. The past system tried to avoid those very short term dips but this one does not, so basically if the 13 day moving average continues to climb, and you are not above the Overbought Range its best to stay in your fund(s)..
Good Luck to all! 14U.
--------------Share---11am-13dymov-Trend-----OB-----OS
Date Fund-Price----Read--Average-& Recm--Range--Range
7/21/08 C 14.3830 +.009 -.339 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/22/08 C 14.5770 +.125 -.290 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/23/08 C 14.6365 +.198 -.237 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/24/08 C 14.2985 +.238 -.180 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/25/08 C 14.41est +.199 -.142 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45

7/21/08 S 18.0370 -.099 -.713 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/22/08 S 18.2942 +.082 -.637 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/23/08 S 18.3049 +.196 -.547 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 S 18.7965 +.222 -.449 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/25/08 S 17.96est +.173 -.376 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50

7/21/08 I 21.6069 +.079 -.458 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/22/08 I 21.5255 +.148 -.390 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/23/08 I 21.7337 +.338 -.312 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 I 21.4356 +.348 -.241 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/25/08 I 21.42est +.30 -.179 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50

7/21/08 F 11.9905 -.021 +.056 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/22/08 F 11.9720 -.035 +.050 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/23/08 F 11.9619 -.040 +.043 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 F 12.0542 -.056 +.034 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/25/08 F 12.03est -.021 +.029 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am Reading starts to stall at its overbought range or goes down in value towards its climbing respective 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
One other thing left to consider with the table below. In order to know if the 11 am Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Range means Overbought Range and OS Range means Over Sold Range in the column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am Reading greater than +.45 would fall into the Over Bought range so think about selling or at least lightening up on shares. An 11am Reading Less than -.45 would fall into the Over Sold range so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out and starts to move in the opposite direction. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am Reading fall, that would be my day to sell as most of the move has already taken place. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range.
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Previously, the system was more of a very short term trading system, now it is a longer term (10-week cycle, more or less, from top to top) trend following system. Expect dips as the system 13 day moving average numbers climb as the markets do not climb in a straight line. The past system tried to avoid those very short term dips but this one does not, so basically if the 13 day moving average continues to climb, and you are not above the Overbought Range its best to stay in your fund(s)..
Good Luck to all! 14U.
--------------Share---11am-13dymov-Trend-----OB-----OS
Date Fund-Price----Read--Average-& Recm--Range--Range
7/22/08 C 14.5770 +.125 -.290 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/23/08 C 14.6365 +.198 -.237 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/24/08 C 14.2985 +.238 -.180 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/25/08 C 14.3578 +.199 -.142 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/28/08 C 14.36est +.198 -.093 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45

7/22/08 S 18.2942 +.082 -.637 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/23/08 S 18.3049 +.196 -.547 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 S 18.7965 +.222 -.449 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/25/08 S 17.9429 +.173 -.376 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/28/08 S 17.94est +.198 -.289 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50

7/22/08 I 21.5255 +.148 -.390 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/23/08 I 21.7337 +.338 -.312 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 I 21.4356 +.348 -.241 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/25/08 I 21.3672 +.307 -.179 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/28/08 I 21.37est +.320 -.113 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50

7/22/08 F 11.9720 -.035 +.050 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/23/08 F 11.9619 -.040 +.043 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 F 12.0542 -.056 +.034 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/25/08 F 11.9919 -.021 +.029 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/28/08 F 12.03est -.021 +.019 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am Reading starts to stall at its overbought range or goes down in value towards its climbing respective 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
One other thing left to consider with the table below. In order to know if the 11 am Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Range means Overbought Range and OS Range means Over Sold Range in the column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am Reading greater than +.45 would fall into the Over Bought range so think about selling or at least lightening up on shares. An 11am Reading Less than -.45 would fall into the Over Sold range so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out and starts to move in the opposite direction. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am Reading fall, that would be my day to sell as most of the move has already taken place. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range.
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Previously, the system was more of a very short term trading system, now it is a longer term (10-week cycle, more or less, from top to top) trend following system. Expect dips as the systems 13 day moving average numbers climb. The past system tried to avoid those very short term dips but this one does not, so basically if the 13 day moving average continues to climb, and the 11am reading is not above the Overbought Range its best to stay in your fund(s)..
Good Luck to all! 14U.
--------------Share---11am-13dymov-Trend-----OB-----OS
Date Fund-Price----Read--Average-& Recm--Range--Range
7/23/08 C 14.6365 +.198 -.237 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/24/08 C 14.2985 +.238 -.180 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/25/08 C 14.3578 +.199 -.142 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/28/08 C 14.0916 +.198 -.093 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45
7/29/08 C 14.23est +.162 -.058 Up-Hold >+.45 <-.45

7/23/08 S 18.3049 +.196 -.547 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 S 18.7965 +.222 -.449 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/25/08 S 17.9429 +.173 -.376 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/28/08 S 17.6856 +.198 -.289 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/29/08 S 17.91est +.217 -.215 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50

7/23/08 I 21.7337 +.338 -.312 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 I 21.4356 +.348 -.241 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/25/08 I 21.3672 +.307 -.179 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/28/08 I 21.1143 +.320 -.113 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50
7/22/08 I 21.16est +.270 -.059 Up-Hold >+.50 <-.50

7/23/08 F 11.9619 -.040 +.043 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/24/08 F 12.0542 -.056 +.034 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/25/08 F 11.9919 -.021 +.029 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/28/08 F 12.0544 -.021 +.019 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50
7/29908 F 11.97est -.035 +.050 Down-Avoid >+.50 <-.50

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am Reading starts to stall at its overbought range or goes down in value towards its climbing respective 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
One other thing left to consider with the table below. In order to know if the 11 am Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Range means Overbought Range and OS Range means Over Sold Range in the column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am Reading greater than +.45 would fall into the Over Bought range so think about selling or at least lightening up on shares. An 11am Reading Less than -.45 would fall into the Over Sold range so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out and starts to move in the opposite direction. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am Reading fall, that would be my day to sell as most of the move has already taken place. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range.
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.