Here's14U's Account Talk

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Thank you Lady for your kind words of support, yes simplicity can work wonders.
Intrepid Investor do you have a reason why this system will not work? The goal is not to get in at the exact bottom or get out at the exact top, but to ride the wave up as long as the 20 day moving average is climbing, and to stay out of harm’s way when the 20 day moving average is falling, as it is now.
The last time the 5 day moving average crossed the 20 day moving average to the downside, for the C fund, was on 9/4/08. If you sold the next day you would of sold your shares for $14.2290 on 9/5/08. Since then the 5day moving average has continued down and below the 20 day moving average. Yesterday’s close for the C-fund was $10.4196. That represents a preventable loss of 26.8% that this system would have saved you, and is continuing to save you. Granted there may be a whipsaw here and there especially with this kind of volatility but that’s the chance I’m willing to take. As long as the 20 day moving average is falling and the 5day moving average stays below it, I’ll be sitting in the G fund (in the tracker), unless there is a buy signal in the F-fund. I know sitting in the G-fund isn’t glamorous but at this time it sure gives you a good night’s sleep!

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/14 C 11.4593 10.99 12.80 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/15 C 10.4196 10.79 12.63 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/14 S 13.6019 13.14 15.86 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/15 S 12.3365 12.87 15.61 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/14 I 15.4268 14.79 17.35 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/15 I 13.9249 14.46 17.13 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/14 F 11.7982 11.96 12.10 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/15 F 11.7863 11.89 12.08 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!
I’m remaining in the G-fund for now in the tracker. I have been in the G fund since 9/5/08. My rollover IRA is currently invested in some SDS, SDD, and EFU. I have been selling shares as they move up in value and buying more as they move down in value. They are shorting vehicles which move up in value as the markets tank, and go down in value as the markets go up.
I don’t believe stock prices can have a sustainable rally at this time. I think depression fears as well as downward corporate earnings estimates will limit rallies going forward. I believe the public will be staying out of the markets as well, I’m sure they will be shell shocked when reviewing their future monthly 401K and brokerage account statements! So I will try this simple new system, hopefully it will continue to keep us out of trouble!
Good Luck!

 

[tagryn]

I find the daily reports very helpful and interesting, please continue to share!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Tagryn glad to see this daily report is helpful and interesting to you.
Yesterday was a successful test of the bottom so I’m inclined to believe a base is trying to form. It’s still to early to tell if this base will be able to support a sustainable rally. The VIX may be peaking here and it may be time to put some money to work if you can stand the volatility. Yesterday, C, S, and I prices have moved above their respective 5 day moving averages which is a positive development but we are by no means out of the woods yet. With the 20 day moving averages still falling, I still expect basing volatility to continue. Being a Friday we may close down today.

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/15 C 10.4196 10.79 12.63 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/16 C 10.8605 10.70 12.51 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/15 S 12.3365 12.87 15.61 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/16 S 12.8670 12.76 15.41 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/15 I 13.9249 14.46 17.13 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/16 I 14.5069 14.36 16.96 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/15 F 11.7863 11.89 12.08 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/16 F 11.8081 11.84 12.05 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!
I’m remaining in the G-fund for now in the tracker. I have been in the G fund since 9/5/08. My rollover IRA is currently invested in some SDS, SDD, and EFU. I have been selling shares as they move up in value and buying more as they move down in value. They are shorting vehicles which move up in value as the markets tank, and go down in value as the markets go up.
I don’t believe stock prices can have a sustainable rally at this time. I think depression fears as well as downward corporate earnings estimates will limit rallies going forward. I believe the public will be staying out of the markets as well, I’m sure they will be shell shocked when reviewing their future monthly 401K and brokerage account statements! So I will try this simple new system, hopefully it will continue to keep us out of trouble!
Good Luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;

It’s still to early to tell if this base will be able to support a sustainable rally. The VIX may be peaking here and it may be time to put some money to work if you can stand the volatility. The, C, S, and I prices have moved above their respective 5 day moving averages which is a positive development but we are by no means out of the woods yet. With the 20 day moving averages still falling, I still expect basing volatility to continue.
I have decided to put some money to work and am going 50%C, 50%G in the tracker today. Should the markets move back down somewhat in coming days I will commit the other 50% to stocks. I know I’m jumping the gun here but prices now above their respective 5 day moving averages may start to attract more investors. We’ll see how it goes from here.

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/16 C 10.8605 10.70 12.51 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/17 C 10.7929 10.77 12.36 Nibbling in 50%C, 50%G

10/16 S 12.8670 12.76 15.41 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/17 S 12.8766 12.85 15.18 Can nibble in

10/16 I 14.5069 14.36 16.96 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/17 I 14.2469 14.35 16.76 Can nibble in

10/16 F 11.8081 11.84 12.05 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/17 F 11.7901 11.81 12.03 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!
I’m moving 50% into the C fund and keeping 50% in the G fund at this time in the tracker. I have been in the G fund since 9/5/08. My rollover IRA is currently invested in some SSO (ProShares Ultra Long S&P500). I have been selling shares as they move up in value and buying more as they move down in value.

Good Luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;

It’s still to early to tell if this base will be able to support a sustainable rally. The VIX may be peaking here and it may be time to put some money to work if you can stand the volatility. The, C, S, and I prices have moved above their respective 5 day moving averages which is a positive development but we are by no means out of the woods yet. With the 20 day moving averages still falling, I still expect basing volatility to continue.
I am currently 50C, 50G in the tracker. Should the markets move back down somewhat in coming days (expecting it as very short term stocks are overbought) I will commit the other 50% to stocks. I know I’m jumping the gun here but prices now above their respective 5 day moving averages may start to attract more investors. We’ll see how it goes from here.

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/17 C 10.7929 10.77 12.36 Nibbling in 50%C, 50%G
10/20 C 11.3091 10.97 12.20 5dayma still below 20dayma

10/17 S 12.8766 12.85 15.18 Can nibble in
10/20 S 13.4172 13.02 14.92 5dayma still below 20dayma

10/17 I 14.2469 14.35 16.76 Can nibble in
10/20 I 15.0555 14.63 16.53 5dayma still below 20dayma

10/17 F 11.7901 11.81 12.03 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/20 F 11.8409 11.80 12.01 Price above 5dy, 5dayma still below 20dayma

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!
I’m moving 50% into the C fund and keeping 50% in the G fund at this time in the tracker. I have been in the G fund since 9/5/08. My rollover IRA is currently invested in some SSO (ProShares Ultra Long S&P500). I have been selling shares as they move up in value and buying more as they move down in value.

Good Luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;

It’s still to early to tell if this base will be able to support a sustainable rally. The VIX may be peaking here and it may be time to put some money to work if you can stand the volatility. The, C, S, and I prices have moved back below their respective 5 day moving averages which is a negagtive development today. With the 20 day moving averages still falling, I still expect basing volatility to continue. Looks like a retest of the lows in coming days. Let’s hope they hold.
I am currently 50C, 50G in the tracker. Should the markets move back down somewhat in coming days (expecting it as very short term stocks are overbought) I will commit the other 50% to stocks. We’ll see how it goes from here.

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/20 C 11.3091 10.97 12.20 5dayma still below 20dayma
10/21 C 10.9604 10.87 12.06 Nibbling in 50%C, 50%G

10/20 S 13.4172 13.02 14.92 5dayma still below 20dayma
10/21 S 13.0626 12.91 14.70 Can nibble in

10/20 I 15.0555 14.63 16.53 5dayma still below 20dayma
10/21 I 14.3379 14.41 16.28 Can nibble in

10/20 F 11.8409 11.80 12.01 Price above 5dy, 5dayma still below 20dayma
10/21 F 11.9429 11.83 12.00 Price above 5dy, can nibble in.

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!
I’m moving 50% into the C fund and keeping 50% in the G fund at this time in the tracker. I have been in the G fund since 9/5/08. My rollover IRA is currently invested in some SSO (ProShares Ultra Long S&P500). I have been selling shares as they move up in value and buying more as they move down in value.

Good Luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I have an appointment this morning so I’m posting this early. Futures are down this morning so it doesn’t look good. There are a lot of concerns about the depth of this recession, with corporate earnings estimates being lowered. I’m moving back to the G fund in the tracker today.
It’s still to early to tell if this base will be able to support a sustainable rally. The VIX may be peaking here and it may be time to put some money to work if you can stand the volatility. The, C, S, and I prices have moved below their respective 5 day moving averages which is a negative development today. With the 20 day moving averages still falling, I still expect basing volatility to continue. Looks like a retest of the lows in coming days.


Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/21 C 10.9604 10.87 12.06 Nibbling in 50%C, 50%G
10/22 C 10.2951 10.84 11.89 5dayma still below 20dayma

10/21 S 13.0626 12.91 14.70 Can nibble in
10/22 S 12.3237 12.91 14.44 5dayma still below 20dayma

10/21 I 14.3379 14.41 16.28 Can nibble in
10/22 I 13.3651 14.30 16.01 5dayma still below 20dayma

10/21 F 11.9429 11.83 12.00 Price above 5dy, can nibble in.
10/22 F 11.9595 11.87 11.99 Price above 5dy, 5dayma still below 20dayma

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!

Good Luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I have another appointment this morning so I’m posting this early. There are a lot of concerns about the depth of this recession, with corporate earnings estimates being lowered. I’m currently in the G fund 100% in the tracker..
Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/22 C 10.2951 10.84 11.89 5dayma still below 20dayma
10/23 C 10.4254 10.76 11.73 5dayma still below 20dayma

10/22 S 12.3237 12.91 14.44 5dayma still below 20dayma
10/23 S 12.0062 12.74 14.18 5dayma still below 20dayma

10/22 I 13.3651 14.30 16.01 5dayma still below 20dayma
10/23 I 13.6087 14.12 15.74 5dayma still below 20dayma

10/22 F 11.9595 11.87 11.99 Price above 5dy, 5dayma still below 20dayma
10/23 F 11.9782 11.90 11.99 Price above 5dy, can nibble in.

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!


Good Luck!

 

[Guest2]

So here we go and good luck!

You are the Best ! Rep Points coming ! Thanks a Billion !

 

[Heres14U]

Must Read if you own Gold or Gold Stocks! Gold could move down to $300 per oz. as per Carl Swenlin!!!!
Rethink your gold positions.
Here's14U

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/081024_gold.html

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Thanks Squalebear!
As the US Treasury starts investing in 9 large banks there are still a lot of concerns about the depth of this recession, with corporate earnings estimates being lowered. I’m currently in the G fund 100% in the tracker and will remain there for now.
Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/23 C 10.4254 10.76 11.73 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/24 C 10.0627 10.61 11.54 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/23 S 12.0062 12.74 14.18 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/24 S 11.6048 12.48 13.90 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/23 I 13.6087 14.12 15.74 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/24 I 12.6726 14.30 16.01 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/23 F 11.9782 11.90 11.99 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/24 F 11.8831 11.92 11.97 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
As a recap, the C fund experienced it’s last sell signal, using this system back on 9/4/08, when the 5day moving average crossed below the 20 day moving average. If you had sold the next day you would of sold your shares at $14.2290 on 9/5/08. Yesterday they closed at $9.7438 a preventable loss of 31.52%!
The S-fund’s sell signal also came on 9/4/08. If you sold your shares the next day you would have sold at $17.8867 on 9/5/08. Yesterday it closed at $11.0751 a preventable loss of 38.08%!!

The I-fund’s sell signal came on 7/31/08. If you sold your shares the next day you would have sold them for $21.0455 on 8/1/08. Yesterday’s close was $12.0689, a preventable loss of 42.65%!!
Keeping things simple, can save you a lot of $$ if you’re willing to take the time to compute the moving averages and see their current relationship with each other. Eventually the 5 day moving average will cross the 20 day moving average to the upside, no one really knows when, but when it does happen we can expect a tradable rally. Currently I’m still in the G fund in the tracker and waiting for the buy signal.

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/24 C 10.0627 10.61 11.54 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/27 C 9.7438 10.30 11.34 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/24 S 11.6048 12.48 13.90 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/27 S 11.0751 12.01 13.59 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/24 I 12.6726 13.81 15.42 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/27 I 12.0689 13.21 15.06 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/24 F 11.8831 11.92 11.97 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/27 F 11.8262 11.92 11.96 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!

 

[Gumby]

Here's14U,

Again - I appreciate your analysis and the time you take to prepare it.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Quite the rally yesterday as the markets anticipate the Fed to lower the interest rate. Will it be sell the good news today? As the recession grows worse its hard for me to believe that the markets continue to go up from here. More likely in my opinion we will develop a trading range for a while as the markets try to base out. Consumers are tapped out so the economy will continue to suffer. Quick trading will become the order of the day as the trading range develops.

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/27 C 9.7438 10.30 11.34 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/28 C 10.7956 10.26 11.24 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/27 S 11.0751 12.01 13.59 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/28 S 11.8894 11.78 13.38 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/27 I 12.0689 13.21 15.06 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/28 I 13.4986 13.04 14.87 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/27 F 11.8262 11.92 11.96 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/28 F 11.7751 11.88 11.94 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The C and I fund's 5 day moving averages are starting to climb which is a good sign. The 20 day moving averages are still falling however so this seems to imply base building is in progress. Rallies may still be short lived so be careful! It will be interesting to see if the 5 day moving averages can move above their respective 20 day moving averages in coming days. I’m still currently in the G-fund and will stay there for now.

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/28 C 10.7956 10.26 11.24 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/29 C 10.6769 10.34 11.11 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/28 S 11.8894 11.78 13.38 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/29 S 12.1635 11.75 13.16 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/28 I 13.4986 13.04 14.87 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/29 I 13.6292 13.10 14.65 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/28 F 11.7751 11.88 11.94 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/29 F 11.7702 11.85 11.93 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The stock funds' 5 day moving averages are climbing now which is a good sign. The 20 day moving averages are still falling however, so this seems to imply base building is in progress. Rallies may still be short lived so be careful! It will be interesting to see if the 5 day moving averages can move above their respective 20 day moving averages in coming days. I’m still currently in the G-fund and will stay there for now.

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/29 C 10.6769 10.34 11.11 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/30 C 10.9547 10.45 10.99 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/29 S 12.1635 11.75 13.16 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/30 S 12.6943 11.89 12.97 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/29 I 13.6292 13.10 14.65 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/30 I 14.2298 13.22 14.47 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid

10/29 F 11.7702 11.85 11.93 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/30 F 11.7599 11.80 11.91 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid

I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
The good news, prices in the C and S funds have moved above their respective 20 day moving averages. The bad news, all three stock funds, on a very short term basis, are very overbought and could pull back any day now. So, that being the case, I would think it would be wise to wait for a small correction before moving into stocks. The five day moving averages have not moved above their respective 20 day moving averages yet, so it is still early in the game. We are still in a bear market so this rally is very hard to trust for very long, so timing is critical. I’m going to wait and stay in the G fund for now.


Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/31 C 11.1223 10.66 10.91 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid


10/31 S 13.1221 12.19 12.84 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid


10/31 I 14.1951 13.52 14.33 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid


10/31 F 11.7408 11.77 11.90 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid


I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Well, the C-fund 5 day moving average has moved above its 20 day moving average. The S and I funds are quickly moving up to their respective 20 day moving averages but haven’t crossed yet. The system says to start buying when the 5 day moving average has moved above the 20 day moving average as we have witnessed in the C-fund so far. The only problem is, the C-fund (as well as the S and I funds) are extremely overbought on a short term basis and could move back down. One way to play this would be to buy a few shares now (maybe 10 or 15% of your TSP funds of C, S, or I as they all look like they will cross eventually) and buy more shares should we get the pullback. Will this pullback go back down to previous lows and possibly even go lower? No one really knows, so if you were to risk some money buying here, I would suggest a small pilot buy. Should we move up from here, then you would be showing a small profit on your shares and you could buy more shares averaging up, which is fine, because you then know you are on the right side of the market. The other option is to stay in the G fund if you believe we are going back down which is fine too, after all we have to do whatever lets us sleep well.
As fir myself, I’m going to play this very conservatively and just put in 10% in the C fund and 10% in the S fund (S fund 5day ma will cross the 20 day ma today) let it ride for now and see what happens. Tomorrow may be a down day allowing a good entry point to buy more shares. If we move down to new lows I’m selling out though as I don’t like to ride the market down even with just 10% on the line. Good Luck!

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/31 C 11.1223 10.66 10.91 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
11/03 C 11.0949 10.93 10.83 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought

10/31 S 13.1221 12.19 12.84 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
11/03 S 13.1284 12.60 12.74 5dayma will cross 20 today but VST* overbought

10/31 I 14.1951 13.52 14.33 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
11/03 I 14.1772 13.95 14.18 5dayma will cross 20 today but VST* overbought

10/31 F 11.7408 11.77 11.90 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid
11/03 F 11.7874 11.77 11.88 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid
*VST- Very Short Term
I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
C, S and I 5dyma’s are now above their respective 20dyma’s (buyers in control). There is a very good chance this will be a tradable rally. I moved to 10%C, 10%S yesterday for today, very conservative I know, but I think we may sell off in the next few days which would present a better buying opportunity for more shares.
The F-fund is starting to look very interesting now as the 5dyma is starting to move up to the 20dyma but hasn’t crossed yet. Could be a good time to nibble in if you like bonds and are willing to start buying early.
No change in my current allocation, 10C, 10S, 80G (1st IFT for November).

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
11/03 C 11.0949 10.93 10.83 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought
11/04 C 11.5469 11.08 10.80 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought

11/03 S 13.1284 12.60 12.74 5dayma will cross 20 today but VST* overbought
11/04 S 13.4233 12.91 12.68 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought

11/03 I 14.1772 13.95 14.18 5dayma will cross 20 today but VST* overbought
11/04 I 15.1468 14.28 14.13 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought

11/03 F 11.7874 11.77 11.88 5dyma still below 20dayma - Avoid
11/04 F 11.9037 11.79 11.87 Price above 20dyma, looking good.
*VST- Very Short Term
I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
C, S and I prices are moving back below their 5 day moving averages, not a good sign, but the overbought conditions are getting wrung out. I expect this to go on for a few more days then we should rally again. I really want to see prices stay above their respective 20 day moving averages. If they move back below them then this rally may be toast.
The F-fund is starting to look very interesting now as the 5dyma is starting to move up to the 20dyma but hasn’t crossed yet. Could be a good time to nibble in if you like bonds and are willing to start buying early. My only concern though is what will happen to bonds when the government starts huge bond auctions? Interest rates may rise dropping bond prices. Not good.
I’m currently 10C, 10S, 80G and waiting to see what develops.

Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
11/04 C 11.5469 11.08 10.80 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought
11/05 C 10.9457 11.13 10.78 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought

11/04 S 13.4233 12.91 12.68 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought
11/05 S 12.7443 13.02 12.64 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought

11/04 I 15.1468 14.28 14.13 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought
11/05 I 14.5174 14.45 14.08 5dayma above 20 but VST* overbought

11/04 F 11.9037 11.79 11.87 Price above 20dyma, looking good.
11/05 F 11.9593 11.83 11.86 Price above 20dyma but VST* overbought
*VST- Very Short Term
I’m trying something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with daily closing price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices to compute the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!