Here's14U's Account Talk

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
S-Fund registered a bearish crossover this morning. It remains to be seen how this will effect the I fund. $IEE down about .66% this morning. Buffets $5Billion investment in Goldman should of helped the markets more but I think with all the uncertainty surrounding the bailout plan, the markets will continue to move down. Should the bailout plan be passed this week I expect a pop in the markets but don’t expect it to last long as the focus will shift to a slowing economy.
The F-fund threw a Bearish Crossover on 9/18 and sure enough prices are plummeting now. If bonds continue to tank this sounds like a loss of confidence in our countries debt. Could a downgrade for US Treasuries be right around the corner?
I am currently 100% G in the tracker and staying there.
C-fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST oversold.
S-Fund, IT trend Bearish Cross (Sell),ST oversold.
I-Fund, IT trend Up-Hold (doubtful if this will hold with C & S funds bearish now), ST slightly overbought.
F-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST oversold.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
------Share--11am----13dy---ITTrend----OB-----OS--ST11am
Date Price---ITRead---Avg--- Recm------Par------Par--Read
9/18 C 13.8286 -.508 -.344Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.12
9/19 C 14.3857 -.327-.345BullishCross>+.60 <-.1.10 +.44
9/22 C 13.8374 -.296 -.338Up-Hold>+.60 <-.1.10 +.21
9/23 C 13.6212 -.409 -.391BearishCross>+.60 <-.1.10 .00
9/24 C 13.5678est -.630 -.484Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.23

9/18 S 17.5980 -.481 -.375Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 +.11
9/19 S 18.5009 -.154 -.332BullishCross>+.90 <-1.45 +.94
9/22 S 17.6031-.135 -.292Up-Hold>+.90 <-1.45 +.42
9/23 S 17.3659 -.312 -.347Up-Hold>+.90 <-1.45 +.03
9/24 S 17.3070est -.548 -.425BearishCross>+.90 <-1.45 -.21

9/18 I 18.3038 -1.916 -1.688Down-Avoid>+1.20<-2.00 -.20
9/19 I 19.5100 -1.479-1.645BullishCross>+1.20<-2.00 +.98
9/22 I 19.3392 -1.361 -1.586Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.71
9/23 I 18.8931 -1.323 -1.557Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.44
9/24 I 18.7778est -1.455 -1.574Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.19

9/18 F 12.2439 +.148 +.179BearishCrossOB>+.05 <-.13 -.10
9/19 F 12.1586 +.106 +.164DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.16
9/22 F 12.1467 +.021+.133DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.29
9/23 F 12.1293 +.063 +.130DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.12
9/24 F 12.1217est +.047 +.112Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 -.11
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am IT (Intermediate term (4-10 weeks)) Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am IT Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am IT Reading starts to stall at or near overbought parameter or goes below its 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
In order to know if the 11 am IT Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Par means Overbought Parameter (column) and OS Par means Over Sold Parameter (column) as column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am IT Reading greater than +.60 would be at the Over Bought parameter so think about selling or at least lightening up on those shares. An 11am IT Reading Less than -1.10 would be at the Over Sold Parameter so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am IT readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am IT Reading fall at or above its Overbought Parameter I would be selling. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
The ST (short term (days)) 11am Reading tells you if you are currently Overbought or Oversold. The more positive a ST reading is the more overbought the market is. The more negative the ST reading is the more oversold the market is. During an intermediate term up trend (IT 11am Reading above its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly positive with minor dips below 0 (buy points). During an intermediate term down trend (IT 11 am Reading below its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly negative with up days nearing 0 or above, as shorting opportunities.

UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am IT Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range. Momentum may carry it higher but getting risky now.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am IT Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range. Momentum may move it lower but time to think about buying.
BULLISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves above its respective falling 13 day moving average implying higher prices ahead. (Buy Signal).
BEARISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves below its respective rising 13 day moving average implying lower prices ahead. (Sell signal).
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Hopes of a Government bailout being passed is rallying the markets. The bailout IMO will be passed, but once the euphoria is over then what? We are another trillion in debt, so I would think the US dollar will become the casualty. We are in recession, we are in a bear market, and corporate earnings will not be going up. Not the ingredients of a rollicking bull market.
The F-fund threw a Bearish Crossover on 9/18 and sure enough prices are plummeting now. If bonds continue to tank this sounds like a loss of confidence in our countries debt. Could a downgrade for US Treasuries be right around the corner?
I am currently 100% G in the tracker and staying there.
C-fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST overbought.
S-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST mildly oversold.
I-Fund, IT trend Up-Hold (doubtful if this will hold with C & S funds bearish now), ST overbought.
F-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST oversold.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
------Share--11am----13dy---ITTrend----OB-----OS--ST11am
Date Price---ITRead---Avg--- Recm------Par------Par--Read
9/19 C 14.3857 -.327-.345BullishCross>+.60 <-.1.10 +.44
9/22 C 13.8374 -.296 -.338Up-Hold>+.60 <-.1.10 +.21
9/23 C 13.6212 -.409 -.391BearishCross>+.60 <-.1.10 .00
9/24 C 13.5950 -.630 -.484Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.23
9/25 C 13.867est -.565 -.522Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 +.12

9/19 S 18.5009 -.154 -.332BullishCross>+.90 <-1.45 +.94
9/22 S 17.6031-.135 -.292Up-Hold>+.90 <-1.45 +.42
9/23 S 17.3659 -.312 -.347Up-Hold>+.90 <-1.45 +.03
9/24 S 17.2040 -.548 -.425BearishCross>+.90 <-1.45 -.21
9/25 S 17.395est -.581 -.487Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.05

9/19 I 19.5100 -1.479-1.645BullishCross>+1.20<-2.00 +.98
9/22 I 19.3392 -1.361 -1.586Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.71
9/23 I 18.8931 -1.323 -1.557Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.44
9/24 I 18.9001 -1.455 -1.574Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.19
9/25 I 19.132est -1.346 -1.554Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.53

9/19 F 12.1586 +.106 +.164DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.16
9/22 F 12.1467 +.021+.133DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.29
9/23 F 12.1293 +.063 +.130DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.12
9/24 F 12.1495 +.047 +.112Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 -.11
9/25 F 12.119est +.040 +.099Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 -.09
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am IT (Intermediate term (4-10 weeks)) Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am IT Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am IT Reading starts to stall at or near overbought parameter or goes below its 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
In order to know if the 11 am IT Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Par means Overbought Parameter (column) and OS Par means Over Sold Parameter (column) as column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am IT Reading greater than +.60 would be at the Over Bought parameter so think about selling or at least lightening up on those shares. An 11am IT Reading Less than -1.10 would be at the Over Sold Parameter so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am IT readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am IT Reading fall at or above its Overbought Parameter I would be selling. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
The ST (short term (days)) 11am Reading tells you if you are currently Overbought or Oversold. The more positive a ST reading is the more overbought the market is. The more negative the ST reading is the more oversold the market is. During an intermediate term up trend (IT 11am Reading above its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly positive with minor dips below 0 (buy points). During an intermediate term down trend (IT 11 am Reading below its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly negative with up days nearing 0 or above, as shorting opportunities.

UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am IT Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range. Momentum may carry it higher but getting risky now.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am IT Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range. Momentum may move it lower but time to think about buying.
BULLISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves above its respective falling 13 day moving average implying higher prices ahead. (Buy Signal).
BEARISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves below its respective rising 13 day moving average implying lower prices ahead. (Sell signal).
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Hopes of a Government bailout being passed is dashed this morning by House Republicans who want an insurance type plan rather than a complete bailout. The bailout IMO will be eventually passed, but what form it will take is still under question. Once the euphoria is over then what? We are another trillion in debt, so I would think the US dollar will become the casualty. We are in recession, we are in a bear market, and corporate earnings will not be going up. Not to mention the problems of bank liquidity and lack of credit for business and consumers. Next axe to fall IMO will be commercial loans as consumers stop buying.
The F-fund threw a Bearish Crossover on 9/18 and sure enough prices are plummeting now. If bonds continue to tank this sounds like a loss of confidence in our countries debt. Could a downgrade for US Treasuries be right around the corner?
I am currently 100% G in the tracker and staying there.
C-fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST slightly oversold.
S-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST oversold.
I-Fund, IT trend Up-Hold (doubtful this will hold with C & S funds bearish now), ST overbought.
F-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST oversold.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
-------Share--11am----13dy---ITTrend----OB-----OS--ST11am
Date Price-----ITRead--Avg--- Recm------Par------Par--Read
9/22 C 13.8374 -.296 -.338Up-Hold>+.60 <-.1.10 +.21
9/23 C 13.6212 -.409 -.391BearishCross>+.60 <-.1.10 .00
9/24 C 13.5950 -.630 -.484Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.23
9/25 C 13.8620 -.565 -.522Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 +.12
9/26 C 13.696est -.604-.538Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.05

9/22 S 17.6031-.135 -.292Up-Hold>+.90 <-1.45 +.42
9/23 S 17.3659 -.312 -.347Up-Hold>+.90 <-1.45 +.03
9/24 S 17.2040 -.548 -.425BearishCross>+.90 <-1.45 -.21
9/25 S 17.3631 -.581 -.487Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.05
9/26 S 17.056est -.706 -.525Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.36

9/22 I 19.3392 -1.361 -1.586Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.71
9/23 I 18.8931 -1.323 -1.557Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.44
9/24 I 18.9001 -1.455 -1.574Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.19
9/25 I 19.2396 -1.346 -1.554Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.53
9/26 I 19.054est -1.297-1.502Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.38

9/22 F 12.1467 +.021+.133DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.29
9/23 F 12.1293 +.063 +.130DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.12
9/24 F 12.1495 +.047 +.112Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 -.11
9/25 F 12.1021 +.040 +.099Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 -.09
9/26 F 12.085est +.014 +.077DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.10
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am IT (Intermediate term (4-10 weeks)) Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am IT Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am IT Reading starts to stall at or near overbought parameter or goes below its 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
In order to know if the 11 am IT Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Par means Overbought Parameter (column) and OS Par means Over Sold Parameter (column) as column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am IT Reading greater than +.60 would be at the Over Bought parameter so think about selling or at least lightening up on those shares. An 11am IT Reading Less than -1.10 would be at the Over Sold Parameter so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am IT readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am IT Reading fall at or above its Overbought Parameter I would be selling. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
The ST (short term (days)) 11am Reading tells you if you are currently Overbought or Oversold. The more positive a ST reading is the more overbought the market is. The more negative the ST reading is the more oversold the market is. During an intermediate term up trend (IT 11am Reading above its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly positive with minor dips below 0 (buy points). During an intermediate term down trend (IT 11 am Reading below its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly negative with up days nearing 0 or above, as shorting opportunities.

UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am IT Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range. Momentum may carry it higher but getting risky now.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am IT Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range. Momentum may move it lower but time to think about buying.
BULLISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves above its respective falling 13 day moving average implying higher prices ahead. (Buy Signal).
BEARISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves below its respective rising 13 day moving average implying lower prices ahead. (Sell signal).
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I don’t like being a pessimist but reality is reality. I like to read Gene Inger’s weekly letter at Decisionpoint.com. He predicted this fiasco 2 years ago and has a good grasp as to what is really going on. I do not have a subscription to his letter but he does post most of it at decision point.com. Give it a read and see how right on this man is. Here is a link.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/INGER.html
I am currently 100% G in the tracker and staying there.
C-fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST very oversold.
S-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST very oversold.
I-Fund, IT trend Bearish Cross (Sell), ST oversold.
F-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST oversold.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
------Share--11am----13dy---ITTrend----OB------OS--ST11am
Date Price---ITRead---Avg--- Recm------Par------Par--Read
9/23 C 13.6212 -.409 -.391BearishCross>+.60 <-.1.10 .00
9/24 C 13.5950 -.630 -.484Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.23
9/25 C 13.8620 -.565 -.522Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 +.12
9/26 C 13.9093 -.604-.538Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.05
9/29 C 13.449est -.670 -.568Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.26

9/23 S 17.3659 -.312 -.347Up-Hold>+.90 <-1.45 +.03
9/24 S 17.2040 -.548 -.425BearishCross>+.90 <-1.45 -.21
9/25 S 17.3631 -.581 -.487Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.05
9/26 S 17.2688 -.706 -.525Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.36
9/29 S 16.687est-.849 -.591Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.65

9/23 I 18.8931 -1.323 -1.557Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.44
9/24 I 18.9001 -1.455 -1.574Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.19
9/25 I 19.2396 -1.346 -1.554Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.53
9/26 I 19.1108 -1.297-1.502Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.38
9/29 I 18.310est -1.500 -1.499BearishCross>+1.20<-2.00 -.34

9/23 F 12.1293 +.063 +.130DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.12
9/24 F 12.1495 +.047 +.112Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 -.11
9/25 F 12.1021 +.040 +.099Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 -.09
9/26 F 12.0843 +.014 +.077DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.10
9/29 F 12.090est -.000 +.058DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -07
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am IT (Intermediate term (4-10 weeks)) Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am IT Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am IT Reading starts to stall at or near overbought parameter or goes below its 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
In order to know if the 11 am IT Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Par means Overbought Parameter (column) and OS Par means Over Sold Parameter (column) as column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am IT Reading greater than +.60 would be at the Over Bought parameter so think about selling or at least lightening up on those shares. An 11am IT Reading Less than -1.10 would be at the Over Sold Parameter so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am IT readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am IT Reading fall at or above its Overbought Parameter I would be selling. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
The ST (short term (days)) 11am Reading tells you if you are currently Overbought or Oversold. The more positive a ST reading is the more overbought the market is. The more negative the ST reading is the more oversold the market is. During an intermediate term up trend (IT 11am Reading above its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly positive with minor dips below 0 (buy points). During an intermediate term down trend (IT 11 am Reading below its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly negative with up days nearing 0 or above, as shorting opportunities.

UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am IT Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range. Momentum may carry it higher but getting risky now.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am IT Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range. Momentum may move it lower but time to think about buying.
BULLISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves above its respective falling 13 day moving average implying higher prices ahead. (Buy Signal).
BEARISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves below its respective rising 13 day moving average implying lower prices ahead. (Sell signal).
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
With all the liquidity being pumped into the system by the Fed a short term bottom may be at hand. The I-fund is deeply oversold, below its OS (oversold) Parameter of -2.00 which we very rarely see. Nerves of steel would be needed to buy it here. The F-fund may also have hit a short term bottom today for you conservative TSPers. I’m going to sit in the G-fund and let this thing play out. There are just to many unknowns to make sense of this situation.
I am currently 100% G in the tracker and staying there.
C-fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST very oversold.
S-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST very oversold.
I-Fund, IT trend Getting-Oversold (Buy), ST very oversold.
F-Fund, IT trend Bullish-Cross, ST overbought.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
------Share--11am----13dy---ITTrend----OB------OS--ST11am
Date Price---ITRead---Avg--- Recm------Par------Par--Read
9/25 C 13.8620 -.565 -.522Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 +.12
9/26 C 13.9093 -.604-.538Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.05
9/29 C 12.6897 -.670 -.568Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.26
9/30 C 13.036est -.934 -.662Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.15 -.54

9/25 S 17.3631 -.581 -.487Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.05
9/26 S 17.2688 -.706 -.525Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.36
9/29 S 16.0536 -.849 -.591Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.65
9/30 S 16.218est-1.152 -.707Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.95


9/25 I 19.2396 -1.346 -1.554Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.53
9/26 I 19.1108 -1.297-1.502Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.38
9/29 I 17.4209 -1.500 -1.499BearishCross>+1.20<-2.00 -.34
9/30 I 17.059est -2.084 -1.623GettingOversold>+1.20<-2.00 -1.35


9/25 F 12.1021 +.040 +.099Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 -.09
9/26 F 12.0843 +.014 +.077DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.10
9/29 F 12.1782 -.000 +.058DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -07
9/30 F 12.260est +.062 +.061BullishCross>+.05 <-.13 +.09

How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am IT (Intermediate term (4-10 weeks)) Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am IT Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am IT Reading starts to stall at or near overbought parameter or goes below its 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
In order to know if the 11 am IT Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Par means Overbought Parameter (column) and OS Par means Over Sold Parameter (column) as column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am IT Reading greater than +.60 would be at the Over Bought parameter so think about selling or at least lightening up on those shares. An 11am IT Reading Less than -1.10 would be at the Over Sold Parameter so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am IT readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am IT Reading fall at or above its Overbought Parameter I would be selling. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
The ST (short term (days)) 11am Reading tells you if you are currently Overbought or Oversold. The more positive a ST reading is the more overbought the market is. The more negative the ST reading is the more oversold the market is. During an intermediate term up trend (IT 11am Reading above its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly positive with minor dips below 0 (buy points). During an intermediate term down trend (IT 11 am Reading below its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly negative with up days nearing 0 or above, as shorting opportunities.

UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am IT Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range. Momentum may carry it higher but getting risky now.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am IT Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range. Momentum may move it lower but time to think about buying.
BULLISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves above its respective falling 13 day moving average implying higher prices ahead. (Buy Signal).
BEARISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves below its respective rising 13 day moving average implying lower prices ahead. (Sell signal).
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Markets are down after yesterday’s huge up day. I don’t believe there will be much of an appetite for stocks going forward especially from the investing public, so no bull market coming in my view. Short the rallies will be the mantra going forward. Currently I own some SDD, SDS, EFU, and GLD and looking to buy more for my rollover IRA. As far as the bailout is concerned, I don’t believe in using taxpayer’s funds to buy worthless toxic mortgage backed securities in the HOPE that they will go up in value by paying more than they are worth now. The Fed has thrown all kinds of liquidity at this problem already with little success, so what makes them think this 700 billion is going to make any difference? I have read the reason banks are not lending to each other because they are trying to create this problem worse than it really is so that they will get the 700 billion so they can get the bad paper off their books. In other words we are being manipulated by them in my view.
I am currently 100% G in the tracker and staying there.
C-fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST very oversold.
S-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST very oversold.
I-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid but down by its Oversold Parameter, depends on US markets performance going forward, ST very oversold.
F-Fund, IT trend, ST overbought. Because of yesterday’s drop we go back to a Bearish Cross (Sell), volatility is causing whipsaws which is very unusual for this fund.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
------Share--11am----13dy---ITTrend---OB------OS--ST11am
Date Price---ITRead---Avg--- Recm------Par------Par--Read
9/25 C 13.8620 -.565 -.522Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 +.12
9/26 C 13.9093 -.604-.538Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.05
9/29 C 12.6897 -.670 -.568Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.26
9/30 C 13.3723 -.934 -.662Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.15 -.54
10/1 C 13.131est -.950 -.692Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.39

9/25 S 17.3631 -.581 -.487Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.05
9/26 S 17.2688 -.706 -.525Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.36
9/29 S 16.0536 -.849 -.591Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.65
9/30 S 16.6083-1.152 -.707Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.95
10/1 S 16.369est -1.175 -.775Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.69

9/25 I 19.2396 -1.346 -1.554Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.53
9/26 I 19.1108 -1.297-1.502Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.38
9/29 I 17.4209 -1.500 -1.499BearishCross>+1.20<-2.00 -.34
9/30 I 17.8751 -2.084 -1.623GettingOversold>+1.20<-2.00 -1.35
10/1 I 17.608est -1.950 -1.582Down-Avoid>+1.20<-2.00 -.80

9/25 F 12.1021 +.040 +.099Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 -.09
9/26 F 12.0843 +.014 +.077DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.10
9/29 F 12.1782 -.000 +.058DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -07
9/30 F 12.030 +.062 +.061BullishCross>+.05 <-.13 +.09
10/1 F 12.034est -.037 +.022BearishCross>+.05 <-.13 -.08
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am IT (Intermediate term (4-10 weeks)) Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am IT Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am IT Reading starts to stall at or near overbought parameter or goes below its 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
In order to know if the 11 am IT Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Par means Overbought Parameter (column) and OS Par means Over Sold Parameter (column) as column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am IT Reading greater than +.60 would be at the Over Bought parameter so think about selling or at least lightening up on those shares. An 11am IT Reading Less than -1.10 would be at the Over Sold Parameter so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am IT readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am IT Reading fall at or above its Overbought Parameter I would be selling. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
The ST (short term (days)) 11am Reading tells you if you are currently Overbought or Oversold. The more positive a ST reading is the more overbought the market is. The more negative the ST reading is the more oversold the market is. During an intermediate term up trend (IT 11am Reading above its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly positive with minor dips below 0 (buy points). During an intermediate term down trend (IT 11 am Reading below its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly negative with up days nearing 0 or above, as shorting opportunities.

UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am IT Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range. Momentum may carry it higher but getting risky now.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am IT Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range. Momentum may move it lower but time to think about buying.
BULLISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves above its respective falling 13 day moving average implying higher prices ahead. (Buy Signal).
BEARISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves below its respective rising 13 day moving average implying lower prices ahead. (Sell signal).
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Steadygain]

I have read the reason banks are not lending to each other because they are trying to create this problem worse than it really is so that they will get the 700 billion so they can get the bad paper off their books. In other words we are being manipulated by them in my view.

I think this most accurately reflects REALITY and wholly coincides with my own outlook. Here I would say "the Banks" are just part of the puzzle - but MANIPULATION has been (and will continue to be) the ongoing FORCE that brings everything into being.

In my view - the REAL POWER - is largely hidden and essentially everything we see (and experience) is in place to keep them hidden.

 

[Gumby]

Good Morning;
The Fed has thrown all kinds of liquidity at this problem already with little success, so what makes them think this 700 billion is going to make any difference? I have read the reason banks are not lending to each other because they are trying to create this problem worse than it really is so that they will get the 700 billion so they can get the bad paper off their books. In other words we are being manipulated by them in my view.

Here's14U,

You hit the nail right on the head. There are billions to be made by the banks if they keep this in crisis mode and the government passes the bailout. They will be able to sell essentially worthless paper to the government for a big gain.

Even the foreign banks will be smiling if the bailout passes. The taxpayer will be on the hook. There will be no definite answer how the government will price the "worthless paper" in the bailout bill. Paulson just wants his blank check.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Did you know that the 700 Billion Dollar Bailout does not specify which banks are to be bailed out?? This loophole allows the plan to bail out FOREIGN banks. We the US taxpayers will be making foreign banks liquid and whole again. I think the Treasury and Fed were pressured by foreign banks and countries to do something quickly as the whole mess started in the US by Fannie and Freddie packaging and selling mortgage backed securities (rated AAA) to foreigners. The chickens have come home to roost.
I am currently 100% G in the tracker and staying there.
C-fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST very oversold.
S-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST very oversold.
I-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid but down by its Oversold Parameter, depends on US markets performance going forward, ST very oversold.
F-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST neutral. Volatility is causing whipsaws which is very unusual for this fund.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
------Share--11am----13dy---ITTrend----OB------OS--ST11am
Date Price----ITRead--Avg--- Recm------Par------Par--Read
9/26 C 13.9093 -.604-.538Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.05
9/29 C 12.6897 -.670 -.568Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.26
9/30 C 13.3723 -.934 -.662Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.15 -.54
10/1 C 13.3138 -.950 -.692Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.39
10/2 C 13.029est -.963 -.779Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.35

9/26 S 17.2688 -.706 -.525Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.36
9/29 S 16.0536 -.849 -.591Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.65
9/30 S 16.6083-1.152 -.707Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.95
10/1 S 16.4822 -1.175 -.775Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.69
10/2 S 16.019est -1.322 -.946Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.75

9/26 I 19.1108 -1.297-1.502Up-Hold>+1.20<-2.00 +.38
9/29 I 17.4209 -1.500 -1.499BearishCross>+1.20<-2.00 -.34
9/30 I 17.8751 -2.084 -1.623GettingOversold>+1.20<-2.00 -1.35
10/1 I 17.8734 -1.950 -1.582Down-Avoid>+1.20<-2.00 -.80
10/2 I 17.544est -1.938 -1.667Down-Avoid>+1.20<-2.00 -.65

9/26 F 12.0843 +.014 +.077DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.10
9/29 F 12.1782 -.000 +.058DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -07
9/30 F 12.030 +.062 +.061BullishCross>+.05 <-.13 +.09
10/1 F 12.0528 -.037 +.022BearishCross>+.05 <-.13 -.08
10/2 F 12.134est -.019 +.014Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 +.01
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am IT (Intermediate term (4-10 weeks)) Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am IT Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am IT Reading starts to stall at or near overbought parameter or goes below its 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
In order to know if the 11 am IT Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Par means Overbought Parameter (column) and OS Par means Over Sold Parameter (column) as column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am IT Reading greater than +.60 would be at the Over Bought parameter so think about selling or at least lightening up on those shares. An 11am IT Reading Less than -1.10 would be at the Over Sold Parameter so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am IT readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am IT Reading fall at or above its Overbought Parameter I would be selling. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
The ST (short term (days)) 11am Reading tells you if you are currently Overbought or Oversold. The more positive a ST reading is the more overbought the market is. The more negative the ST reading is the more oversold the market is. During an intermediate term up trend (IT 11am Reading above its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly positive with minor dips below 0 (buy points). During an intermediate term down trend (IT 11 am Reading below its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly negative with up days nearing 0 or above, as shorting opportunities.

UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am IT Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range. Momentum may carry it higher but getting risky now.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am IT Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range. Momentum may move it lower but time to think about buying.
BULLISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves above its respective falling 13 day moving average implying higher prices ahead. (Buy Signal).
BEARISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves below its respective rising 13 day moving average implying lower prices ahead. (Sell signal).
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Silverbird]

Yes, otherwise the foreign banks may be forced to write off our junk, or a huge trash pile of junk may make a re-appearance when the holding bank goes belly-up.

And yes there definately was pressure, and definately foreign banks were shopping elsewhere for investments and not participating in auctions anymore.

Here chick chick chick chick.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Markets are expecting the bailout to pass today. We are very oversold and due for a bounce. How long this bounce will last is anyone’s guess. The fact still remains we are in a slowing economy with declining corporate profits which will be a big damper on any rallies we have. I still think we will eventually test the lows again but whether it will be soon or a few months from now, I just don’t know. Short term looks like we rally for a while.
I am currently 100% G in the tracker and staying there.
C-fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST very oversold.
S-Fund, IT trend Getting Oversold (Buy), ST very oversold. Buy if you dare, but we are in a bear market.
I-Fund, IT trend Getting Oversold (Buy), ST very very oversold, Buy if you dare, but we are in a bear market.
F-Fund, IT trend Down-Avoid, ST slightly oversold.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
------Share--11am----13dy---ITTrend----OB------OS--ST11am
Date Price----ITRead--Avg--- Recm------Par------Par--Read
9/29 C 12.6897 -.670 -.568Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.26
9/30 C 13.3723 -.934 -.662Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.15 -.54
10/1 C 13.3138 -.950 -.692Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.39
10/2 C 12.7802 -.963 -.779Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.35
10/3 C 12.905est -1.081 -.866Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.33

9/29 S 16.0536 -.849 -.591Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.65
9/30 S 16.6083-1.152 -.707Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.95
10/1 S 16.4822 -1.175 -.775Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.69
10/2 S 15.5869 -1.322 -.946Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.75
10/3 S 15.833est -1.524 -1.104GettingOversold>+.90 <-1.45 -.67

9/29 I 17.4209 -1.500 -1.499BearishCross>+1.20<-2.00 -.34
9/30 I 17.8751 -2.084 -1.623GettingOversold>+1.20<-2.00 -1.35
10/1 I 17.8734 -1.950 -1.582Down-Avoid>+1.20<-2.00 -.80
10/2 I 17.0826 -1.938 -1.667Down-Avoid>+1.20<-2.00 -.65
10/3 I 17.255est -2.125 -1.805GettingOversold>+1.20<-2.00 -.63

9/29 F 12.1782 -.000 +.058DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -07
9/30 F 12.030 +.062 +.061BullishCross>+.05 <-.13 +.09
10/1 F 12.0528 -.037 +.022BearishCross>+.05 <-.13 -.08
10/2 F 12.0892 -.019 +.014Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 +.01
10/3 F 12.037est -.057 -.007DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.06
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am IT (Intermediate term (4-10 weeks)) Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am IT Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am IT Reading starts to stall at or near overbought parameter or goes below its 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
In order to know if the 11 am IT Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Par means Overbought Parameter (column) and OS Par means Over Sold Parameter (column) as column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am IT Reading greater than +.60 would be at the Over Bought parameter so think about selling or at least lightening up on those shares. An 11am IT Reading Less than -1.10 would be at the Over Sold Parameter so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am IT readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am IT Reading fall at or above its Overbought Parameter I would be selling. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
The ST (short term (days)) 11am Reading tells you if you are currently Overbought or Oversold. The more positive a ST reading is the more overbought the market is. The more negative the ST reading is the more oversold the market is. During an intermediate term up trend (IT 11am Reading above its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly positive with minor dips below 0 (buy points). During an intermediate term down trend (IT 11 am Reading below its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly negative with up days nearing 0 or above, as shorting opportunities.

UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am IT Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range. Momentum may carry it higher but getting risky now.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am IT Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range. Momentum may move it lower but time to think about buying.
BULLISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves above its respective falling 13 day moving average implying higher prices ahead. (Buy Signal).
BEARISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves below its respective rising 13 day moving average implying lower prices ahead. (Sell signal).
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning; :worried:
All I can say is incredible. We are in uncharted territory as the three stock funds are below their respective Oversold parameters. How low will they go? Buying here would take nerves of steel to say the least.
I am currently 100% G in the tracker and staying there.
C-fund, IT trend Getting Oversold (Buy if you dare), ST extremely oversold.
S-Fund, IT trend Getting Oversold (Buy if you dare), ST extremely oversold.
I-Fund, IT trend Getting Oversold (Buy if you dare), ST extremely oversold.
F-Fund, IT trend On the verge of a Bullish Crossover, ST slightly overbought.
Good Luck to all! 14U.
------Share--11am---13dy---ITTrend----OB-----OS--ST11am
Date Price---ITRead--Avg--- Recm------Par------Par--Read
9/30 C 13.3723 -.934 -.662Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.15 -.54
10/1 C 13.3138 -.950 -.692Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.39
10/2 C 12.7802 -.963 -.779Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.35
10/3 C 12.6079 -1.081 -.866Down-Avoid>+.60 <-.1.10 -.33
10/6 C 12.061est -1.471 -1.014GettingOversold>+.60 <-.1.10 -.94

9/30 S 16.6083-1.152 -.707Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.95
10/1 S 16.4822 -1.175 -.775Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.69
10/2 S 15.5869 -1.322 -.946Down-Avoid>+.90 <-1.45 -.75
10/3 S 15.2179 -1.524 -1.104GettingOversold>+.90 <-1.45 -.67
10/6 S 14.297est -2.248 -1.392GettingOversold>+.90 <-1.45 -1.74

9/30 I 17.8751 -2.084 -1.623GettingOversold>+1.20<-2.00 -1.35
10/1 I 17.8734 -1.950 -1.582Down-Avoid>+1.20<-2.00 -.80
10/2 I 17.0826 -1.938 -1.667Down-Avoid>+1.20<-2.00 -.65
10/3 I 17.1325 -2.125 -1.805GettingOversold>+1.20<-2.00 -.63
10/6 I 16.023est -2.639 -1.993GettfingOversold>+1.20<-2.00 -1.49

9/30 F 12.030 +.062 +.061BullishCross>+.05 <-.13 +.09
10/1 F 12.0528 -.037 +.022BearishCross>+.05 <-.13 -.08
10/2 F 12.0892 -.019 +.014Down-Avoid>+.05 <-.13 +.01
10/3 F 12.1012 -.057 -.007DownAvoid>+.05 <-.13 -.06
10/6 F 12.183est -.005 -.005DeadEven>+.05 <-.13 +.07
How to use the above chart & Recommendation Explanations;
There are only a few columns to the table. The Current Trend and Recommendation column is based on the relationship between the 11am IT (Intermediate term (4-10 weeks)) Reading and its 13 day moving average. If the 11am IT Reading is higher in value than its respective 13 day moving average than an up trend is in force and you should be in the fund. If the 11am IT Reading starts to stall at or near overbought parameter or goes below its 13 day moving average than a change in trend (to down) is on the horizon. You should then think of selling the fund.
In order to know if the 11 am IT Reading is nearing or in Over Bought or Over Sold territory, I’ve entered two more columns. To avoid confusion, OB Par means Overbought Parameter (column) and OS Par means Over Sold Parameter (column) as column headings. For the C fund, for example an 11am IT Reading greater than +.60 would be at the Over Bought parameter so think about selling or at least lightening up on those shares. An 11am IT Reading Less than -1.10 would be at the Over Sold Parameter so think about buying the fund or Dollar cost averaging into it. The best timing signals are given when 11 am IT readings are in Overbought or Oversold ranges and the 13 day moving average flattens out. Of course in a bear market stock prices can turn on a dime so I’m not sure if I would wait that long to sell. I think the first day I see the 11am IT Reading fall at or above its Overbought Parameter I would be selling. The flattening 13 day moving average sequence seems to work best when forming a bottom.
The ST (short term (days)) 11am Reading tells you if you are currently Overbought or Oversold. The more positive a ST reading is the more overbought the market is. The more negative the ST reading is the more oversold the market is. During an intermediate term up trend (IT 11am Reading above its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly positive with minor dips below 0 (buy points). During an intermediate term down trend (IT 11 am Reading below its 13 day moving average) the Short term reading will stay mostly negative with up days nearing 0 or above, as shorting opportunities.

UP-HOLD - It’s fine to hold this fund as higher prices are expected.
GETTING OVERBOUGHT - Time to start thinking about selling the fund. The11am IT Reading is peaking or has already peaked in its overbought range. Momentum may carry it higher but getting risky now.
DOWN-AVOID - Trend is down at this time. Avoid this fund for now.
GETTING OVERSOLD - Time to start thinking about buying the fund. The 11am IT Reading is bottoming or has already bottomed in its oversold range. Momentum may move it lower but time to think about buying.
BULLISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves above its respective falling 13 day moving average implying higher prices ahead. (Buy Signal).
BEARISH CROSS - 11am IT reading moves below its respective rising 13 day moving average implying lower prices ahead. (Sell signal).
Disclaimer: Here’s14U is not a registered investment advisor. The analysis presented is not a solicitation to buy, avoid, sell or sell short any security. Anyone using this analysis does so at his or her own risk. Here’s14U assume no liability for the use of this analysis. There is no guarantee that the facts are accurate or that the analysis presented will be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Here’s14U may have positions in the securities analyzed and these may have been taken before or after the analysis was present.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
Unfortunately I need to go on a trip for a week and won't be able to report. I think the markets are entitled to somewhat of a rally but they remain dangerous and weak with very little confidence going forward. So until next Wednesday or so I wish you all the best of luck. Thank you all for your support.
Here's14U.

 

[Gumby]

Good Morning;
Unfortunately I need to go on a trip for a week and won't be able to report. I think the markets are entitled to somewhat of a rally but they remain dangerous and weak with very little confidence going forward. So until next Wednesday or so I wish you all the best of luck. Thank you all for your support.
Here's14U.

Have a great trip....

 

[Guest2]

Good Morning;
Unfortunately I need to go on a trip for a week and won't be able to report. I think the markets are entitled to somewhat of a rally but they remain dangerous and weak with very little confidence going forward. So until next Wednesday or so I wish you all the best of luck. Thank you all for your support.
Here's14U.

Great, Everyone wants me lost ! :embarrest:

Seriously, have a safe trip and throw some fun into the mix !

 

[poolman]

Here's14U,

Have a safe trip. Your information is appreciated. Thanks.

 

[justbizness45]

Great, Everyone wants me lost ! :embarrest:

Don't worry SB, I have a dog that can find you.

 

[Heres14U]

Good Morning;
I’m going to try something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. How much you buy or sell is up to you depending on your risk tolerance. Keep in mind we are still in a bear market as the 200 day moving averages are still falling for the stock funds. I’ll be using closing prices only for the moving averages. So here we go and good luck!
Date Fund Price 5dyma 20dyma Current Status and Recommendation
10/14 C 11.4593 10.99 12.80 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/14 S 13.6019 13.14 15.86 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/14 I 15.4268 14.79 17.35 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
10/14 F 11.7982 11.96 12.10 5dayma still below 20dayma - Avoid
I’m remaining in the G-fund for now in the tracker. I have been in the G fund since 9/5/08. My rollover IRA is currently invested in some SDS, SDD, and EFU. I have been selling shares as they move up in value and buying more as they move down in value. They are shorting vehicles which move up in value as the markets tank, and go down in value as the markets go up.
I don’t believe stock prices can have a sustainable rally at this time. I think recession fears (or something worse) will limit rallies going forward. I believe the public will be staying out of the markets as well, I’m sure they will be shell shocked when reviewing their future monthly 401K and brokerage account statements! So I will try this new system, hopefully it will continue to keep us out of trouble!
Good Luck!

 

[XL-entLady]

I’m going to try something a little different but very simple. We are only going to deal with price, and two simple moving averages, a 5 day and a 20 day. The rules are simple, when price then the 5 day moving average move above the 20 day moving average we buy. When price then the 5 day moving average move below the 20 day moving average we sell. .... My rollover IRA is currently invested in some SDS, SDD, and EFU. I have been selling shares as they move up in value and buying more as they move down in value. They are shorting vehicles which move up in value as the markets tank, and go down in value as the markets go up.
I don’t believe stock prices can have a sustainable rally at this time. I think recession fears (or something worse) will limit rallies going forward. I believe the public will be staying out of the markets as well,.... So I will try this new system, hopefully it will continue to keep us out of trouble!
Good Luck!

14U, one of my college professors used to drill into us that "Simplicity is Elegance". Your system is straightforward, uncomplicated, and has sound technical analysis behind it. I will look forward each trading day to what it is telling us. Excellent!

And I appreciate your sharing what you're doing in your IRA, and your thoughts on the markets.

{signs "from the heart"} My sincere thanks for all you do!

Lady

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Don't know if you have backtested this or not, but it doesn't work. Sorry.