Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

I knew things had not gone well last week when I got bit by the I-fund FV and I missed the rally the next day only to buy the top a couple days later. I was not able to bear witness to this weeks action and now that I can see what's going on, I can't say I am thrilled by my choice of funds. There are gains to be had in the S-fund, but the C-fund is the safe play.

I'm trying to be objective and not get wrapped up in the fact that I managed to erase all of April's gains and more in one week. As long as the S&P 500 continues to flirt with a new all time high, it is going to continue to hold it's value. However, the S-fund has taken a beating and any extended stay at new highs for the S&P will likely be followed by broader based rally to include the S-fund components. There is a lot of room for gain there and I am going to continue to stick it out in the S-fund. I don't have the time to devote to the market now, so I have to play the bigger picture.

 

[Griffin]

I moved over to the F-fund because things are looking toppy. I don't expect to hang out long, this is just a precautionary move because I see a sell off as a real possibility and I am looking to catch a break as the market consolidates in preperation for the next move higher and that elusive all time new high close.

 

[Griffin]

Things are starting to slip below the short term channels as we head into the final trading hour. If the smart money sells off at the end.....aaaaaaaahgain....we could be looking at a correction. I hate to loose money since I am buying into the S-fund today, but it seems like the market is slowly waking up to the concept that a rate drop ain't in the near future. Other then Jeff Laffer, the word "hike" has yet to slip back into the mainstream, but the moment this market gets a pull back....that will be the scapegoat.

Anyway, here's my plan for what it's worth (which ain't much lately). I am playing what may be a one day move if we see some surprisingly strong lifeless kitty plasticity tomorrow or a continuation of today (more down). If we moderate here I will hang in the S-fund through the weekend.

 

[AIF]

A little late day rally would be good for morale here. I seem to be holding my positions a day to long.

 

[Griffin]

I seem to be holding my positions a day to long.

I know that feeling very well, I have been out of step with the market for months.

I have been overwhelmed at work and at home building the new "Griffin Cave".....someday soon I hope to be able to get back to doing my homework. (the drywall is finally hung....it's muddin time :nuts.

 

[AIF]

building the new "Griffin Cave".....

Enjoy while the weather's nice!

 

[nnuut]

I know that feeling very well, I have been out of step with the market for months.

I have been overwhelmed at work and at home building the new "Griffin Cave".....someday soon I hope to be able to get back to doing my homework. (the drywall is finally hung....it's muddin time :nuts.

I love mudding, but especially sanding!

 

[Griffin]

The homes report (which pointed to stricter lending practices as the reason sales were below expectations) was good news for those with inflation concerns and the market does not seem to mind. This helps to set the stage for a mindset that will allow the Fed to deal with inflation, accept a lower amount of growth without shocking the market to bad. Granted, yesterday was a rough day, but it had more to do with the market needing a break then it did with "strong new homes sales being indicitive that the fed will not need to cut". I still don't think the market is ready for another hike, but if one comes at all, I don't think it will be for awhile. I think: slow and steady from here for a couple of days, I'm staying in for the weekend but staying away from internationals, if the dollar breaks to the upside, it could be very disappointing for the I-fund.

 

[Griffin]

China and "the weaker six months/play 'til May" are the factors playing into today. Are you a cautious investor or are you a greedy pig?

I have to believe that we will get a pullback within the next four weeks as Q2 wraps up so, at some point in the very near future it will be wise to take up a defensive position....with this China sell-off today could be that day.

Logic says that this tax stamp issue in China is going to lead to a progressive sell-off. However, the Olympics theory (buy at all costs and sell before the end of the Chinese Olympics next summer if you haven't heard this one) suggests that the Chinese will recover from today's drop within the very near future...i.e. we forget all about China by the time the FOMC and Jobs report come out. We have seen a recent pattern suggesting that tomorrow could be another big green day...it would be the third time in a row that we have seen an immediate turn around within a day. February's China meltdown was a one day event, and everybody knows that. The intraday charts for all the major foreign indexes look healthy except for the opening drop. Even the Shanghai index looks like it found support during the afternoon session and Japan barely blinked at the sell-off. That's not to say that the train ain't comin off it's tracks, because we've seen the way the market can coughing up a rally as it head's into a wreck. Most corrections occurr as a perponderence of evidence builds usually in concert with a rally just before that final straw sends it down. I expect the dip buyers to jump all over today's opening - and that will be what tells me if I stay or go. I am expecting it to level off within 20 to 30 minutes of the opening bell.

 

[Show-me]

I for one hope you are correct.

 

[FogSailing]

US markets seem to be fighting back and taking it in stride..and European markes didn't get hurt too bad..On the other hand, the US jobs numbers were not as good as expected and tomorrow is full of economic data on the calendar...If I play today it will be in I with only limited exposure..

FS

 

[Griffin]

I decided to move to the I-fund. I think a new high may be in the making, but we could get whipped a little along the way. I'm a bit skeptical about Friday, so tomorrow may bring a move to safety - the F is looking might tasty right now.

 

[Griffin]

Initially I went to the F fund this morning but changed over to the G when I was enlightened on the fact that the G is due to pay tomorrow. I'm glad I did, because the TNX is on the move and may looking at resistance around 4.96-4.97, which should shave a few more pennies off of the F fund (AGG) over the next few days. However, unless the action is sweeter in stocks, I will be looking move in then...I am seriously considering a more long term defensive approach....Last nights continued treck downward on the Shanghai (dropped another 6.5% before recovering to close in the green) has me leary that more surprises may be coming from China.

 

[Griffin]

Here's a yearly for the DWCP (S-fund),

View attachment 1638

I 've circled the tops of the multi day runs and we usually get some consolidation and an opportunity to buy back in. I moved over to the F, because I am playing the idea that the TNX will reverse itself slightly after such a strong move. I also suspect a post noon sell-off/consolidation in the stocks. That probably would not suprise anyone on Wall street or the message board. I mention it, because I would be suprised to see the buyers step in at the final trading hour like they did earlier this week.

 

[Griffin]

....Last nights continued treck downward on the Shanghai (dropped another 6.5% before recovering to close in the green) has me leary that more surprises may be coming from China.

The market is shrugging off China again...but for how much longer? If China burns again tomorrow (and it went into the close on strong downward move) the world might take notice.

I guess I will continue to try to play the dips, because your only going to get burned once when the correction finally comes right?

Still sitting in the F, but it may be that bond yields are headed to 5.0% (which is something of a magic number and could be the turning point for the stock market). If the F fund continues to slide, I will move back over to the G.

 

[ChemEng]

The market is shrugging off China again...but for how much longer? If China burns again tomorrow (and it went into the close on strong downward move) the world might take notice.

I guess I will continue to try to play the dips, because your only going to get burned once when the correction finally comes right?

Still sitting in the F, but it may be that bond yields are headed to 5.0% (which is something of a magic number and could be the turning point for the stock market). If the F fund continues to slide, I will move back over to the G.

I agree with your analysis. Im staying putting in G today.

 

[Griffin]

I agree with your analysis. Im staying putting in G today.

I think I will join you tomorrow. The TNX is floating along a weak support around 4.94, it might hold the rest of the day, if the stock market stagnates.

 

[Griffin]

Here's the time/volume curve for the past five days of the NYSE, 1.5 million is a typical summer close and 3.0 million is a high volume winter close.

Were heading for something just north of a typical summer close......i.e. summer is here and MAY IS OVER

View attachment 1645

 

[weatherweenie]

Here's the time/volume curve for the past five days of the NYSE, 1.5 million is a typical summer close and 3.0 million is a high volume winter close.
View attachment 1645

Disregard.

 

[Griffin]

Meeting ran over and I missed the opportunity to evaluate my position. The F looked like a nice buying opportunity and that gave me pause to consider staying put (I'm already there, since I overstayed my one day move there yesterday). I have not seen if there was any significant movement into the F among the board but 5.0% is a number that offers significant resistance and also presents a concern for stock buyers. Yesteday I reluctantly suggested that I would continue to dip buy, which meant I should be moving into stocks today. I will have to make that decision tomorrow, but given the move to 5.0% yield in bonds, and the fact that China is now behaving like a market in the midst of a pullback is a reason for elevated concerns.