Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

I'm still piddling around in the F but I am definitely looking to catch the bottom of this action and switch in a 100% stock allocation until I finish my current home improvement project (which has been keeping me from my nightly stock market homework and analysis).

Anyway, despite completely missing the post FOMC meeting rally, I am taking some comfort that I had not lost my mind since my concerns then are now being validated. That doesn't justify poor performance, it only serves as a sanity check.

Many folks have made out very well on this rally and I think that is a tribute to this site but it also shows that you have to keep your eye on the ball and not apply logic to rigidly. The market is subject to the propoganda and you have to except that propoganda can have a profound sustained effect.

Anyway, continued rate hikes are definitely not off the table for the Fed nor was the last policy satement intended to imply that......http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/11/news/economy/fed_minutes.reut/index.htm

 

[Show-me]

Anyway, despite completely missing the post FOMC meeting rally, I am taking some comfort that I had not lost my mind since my concerns then are now being validated. That doesn't justify poor performance, it only serves as a sanity check.

:nuts: :nuts: :nuts: :nuts:

 

[Griffin]

This is from the CPI report which came in higher then expectations (at .9). The Fed is going to be forced to deal with the reality of inflation. While you can chalk a lot of this up to short term complications in the food industry, transportation and energy, there is no guarantee that those complications are going to be short term. IMHO, if earnings come in strong, you can count on the Fed to start hiking again.

For the first three months of 2007, consumer prices increased at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.7 percent. This compares with
an increase of 2.5 percent for all of 2006. The index for energy, which
rose 2.9 percent in all of 2006, advanced at a 22.9 percent SAAR in the
first quarter of 2007 and accounted for about 41 percent of the first
quarter advance in the overall CPI-U. Petroleum-based energy costs and
charges for natural gas and electricity contributed about 29 and 12
percent, respectively. The food index rose at a 7.3 percent SAAR in the
first quarter of 2007, accounting for 21 percent of the first quarter
advance in the overall CPI-U. The index for grocery store food prices
increased at a 10.0 percent annual rate, reflecting acceleration over the
last year in each of the six major groups. These increases ranged from
annual rates of 4.7 percent in the index for cereal and bakery products to
19.3 percent in the index for fruits and vegetables.

 

[weatherweenie]

Meanwhile, Bloomberg had this about the CPI
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...&refer=economy

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.6% in March; Core Rate Up 0.1%

By Joe Richter
April 17 (Bloomberg) - A measure of prices paid by U.S. consumers rose less than forecast last month, supporting the Federal Reserve's call that inflation will subside as the economy slows.
The 0.1 percent increase in core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy costs, was the smallest this year and follows a 0.2 percent February gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Prices overall rose 0.6 percent in March, led by a jump in fuel costs.
Less inflation may give Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues more latitude to lower interest rates to reinvigorate the economy in coming months, economists said. Cheaper clothing and hotel stays and a smaller gain in medical care costs restrained price gains last month, suggesting a slowing economy is starting to help alleviate price

This is from the CPI report which came in higher then expectations (at .9). The Fed is going to be forced to deal with the reality of inflation. While you can chalk a lot of this up to short term complications in the food industry, transportation and energy, there is no guarantee that those complications are going to be short term. IMHO, if earnings come in strong, you can count on the Fed to start hiking again.

For the first three months of 2007, consumer prices increased at a
seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.7 percent. This compares with
an increase of 2.5 percent for all of 2006. The index for energy, which
rose 2.9 percent in all of 2006, advanced at a 22.9 percent SAAR in the
first quarter of 2007 and accounted for about 41 percent of the first
quarter advance in the overall CPI-U. Petroleum-based energy costs and
charges for natural gas and electricity contributed about 29 and 12
percent, respectively. The food index rose at a 7.3 percent SAAR in the
first quarter of 2007, accounting for 21 percent of the first quarter
advance in the overall CPI-U. The index for grocery store food prices
increased at a 10.0 percent annual rate, reflecting acceleration over the
last year in each of the six major groups. These increases ranged from
annual rates of 4.7 percent in the index for cereal and bakery products to
19.3 percent in the index for fruits and vegetables.

 

[Birchtree]

Housing starts were up 0.8% larger than expected - the expectation was for a decline of 7% I think. The economy lives and the Dow futures are pumping.

 

[Griffin]

My mistake, the unadjusted rate was .9%, the seasonally adjusted rate was .6%.

 

[Griffin]

I had been looking for an entry point, and I decided that one is probably not coming until late May.... "play til May and go away"

We have had a significant amount of inflation these past three months and at some point it is going to have to be addressed. Right now we have to accept that the euphoria from the apparant soft landing (did we have a soft landing?, I'm not sure the nose of this plane ever even went below the horizon, or if we even bothered to put out the landing gear ).

We saw a fairly significant one day drop back in February and I expect the next time it will be even more severe, I hate to give up my defensive position for a couple % gain only to get pounded for 7-10%. So I am going to be a schizophrenic bull over the next few weeks. :nuts:

 

[Griffin]

The last time I jumped out of the market for post options expiration Monday we had a rally. Since we survived the Shangai suprise, I can see a lot of short term motivation to drive this market higher, but Monday could be a big profit taker. My instincts are telling me to get out for Monday but they have been so wrong over the past couple of months, I've decided I will stick around the S-fund, I have become a contrarian to myself...hope the strategy works. :nuts: I would not be suprised if we got a nice short intense bump to really fuel up a significant pullback between now and the end of May. As of this morning, I intend to go into Monday 100%S.

 

[weatherweenie]

... I have become a contrarian to myself...hope the strategy works. :nuts:

See nnuut's acct talk for similar references.

 

[Griffin]

See nnuut's acct talk for similar references.

Did you check out Mad Dog's who's hot and who's not list (I am assuming I am included in the not list). The hot's are all in capital preservation, and my butt is in the S....with things looking to fade as the day goes on, Monday could be a real bummer . Maybe I should have trusted my gut :toung:

 

[nnuut]

Ya never know about those gut feelings! Mine are usually wrong.:suspicious:

 

[ChemEng]

Were in trouble now--Maddog is tracking moderators... :nuts:

 

[nnuut]

Well we must do better and make a good showing!! How do we do that?

 

[MADDOG]

in my mind; as small as it it
i view your opinions / post quite important
and they need to be seperate.
it dosen't mean i'll follow the
but i may
note the who's hot;
these are the top 3 from this year
and the top 3 who started after the first of the year;
so this will change every week;
depending on who shows up on rokids chart

again; it all comes down to numbers
i just like numbers

md

 

[MADDOG]

Were in trouble now--Maddog is tracking moderators... :nuts:

forgot to mention
LUV YA'LL
MEAN IT

 

[nnuut]

You put out good info for the folks that want to know how everyone is playing the market. Great stuff and a lot of work I bet!!

 

[MADDOG]

It Makes Lunch Go By Quickly;

Btw
Thanks For Your Help On My Signature Block

I'm Not An "it" Brain Like You

Thanks
Md

 

[nnuut]

Anytime MD that's what we're here for.
Oh we can still tweak them a little, I'll get back with Ya.

 

[ChemEng]

I think Griffins place is going to be our new hangout...

 

[Griffin]

MADDOG,

I think I speak for a lot of people, when I say - the work you do is much appreciated.

By the way, went to the C-fund today, because I expect a push in the Dow to meet 13K. Such a rally will likely propel the large caps more then the small and medium and take the dollar index with it. We saw this with Dow 12K back in October and November. Some chalked it up to sector rotation, I'm not sure if I buy that since it was a relatively short lived.

It Makes Lunch Go By Quickly;

Btw
Thanks For Your Help On My Signature Block

I'm Not An "it" Brain Like You

Thanks
Md