Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

IFT to the F-fund via the thriftline, the website appears to be having problems. Here the thrift line number: 1-877-968-3778. I don't normally use this system, but I think the system said that the request needs to be processed by 1100 am EST to be effective instead of noon.

 

[Wolverine]

Yep, thriftline looks to be having problems from my end also.

 

[CountryBoy]

Having trouble here also.

CB

 

[Griffin]

Thanks for catching this. I was expecting to hear 1200 pm, it caught me off guard. Good to know for the future.

Between Yahoo and the TSP website both acting screwy today. I'm sure there will be a lot of frustration floating around by the end of the day.

Griffin,

The message says that IFTs made by 11 am central time will be processed tonight. Therefore, I think we're good until 12 noon EST.

 

[Griffin]

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/03/28/british.letter/index.html

Here's a link to the letter that Faye Turney (the one female sailor of the 15 captured by Iran) apparantly wrote to her family.

The coercion is fairly blatant and is awash with Iran's political agenda. I hope she was not tortured and my prayers go out to those troops. Her and her compadres chances of getting out alive are favorable. However, here "admission" that the Brits were in Iranian waters while wearing a head scarf is not helping the situation. Her career is probably over, but I hope the British military has enough sense to recognize that she has probably been isolated and is in grave fear of her life and doesn't court martial her.

 

[Griffin]

ISM index came in at 50.9 (below the forecasted 52.5).

That's all we have for today other then some M&A news. Portfolio managers may do some rebalancing over the next couple of days to start the new quarter.

I am favoring Tom's assesment in hopes of becoming reality (i.e. we get a retest of the lows) and like Tom, I am prepared to start a move into stocks soon.

 

[Griffin]

By yesterday afternoon the intraday picture turned positive leaving the indexs sitting at resistance. The OSMs seemed to appreciate the late day action and followed up pushing above last weeks highs and now the futures are indicating that we may see a rally move above the past 5 days resistance toward mid-March's highs. No surprise, Trader Fred’s models kicked out a buy signal.

This leaves the question: To chase or not to chase. At this point, a .70% rally in the S&P500 will take us to the resistance of mid-March's high which is an easy one day move. From here, there is a full 2.5% to get to February’s highs. Since today’s rally is being driven by the apparent tensions easing over the Iran/British hostage issue, we could easily see that reverse in a heartbeat….after all, it’s the Middle East and were talking about Iran and oil.

This is the way I am weighing things: a quick pop today and a substantial sell-off shortly afterwards would fit the “last May” model for this pullback. But last May we got a more substantial pullback. I have a lot of doubts about using last May as a model (which is causing me to distrust a retest). As Tom mentioned the start of recovery last May was the FOMC meeting (followed by a retest of the lows). The FOMC meeting came much earlier in this correction, so from that perspective the “last May” model may be viable - you just have to accept that our second big drop is not going to happen.


View attachment 1545

The slo sto suggests we have about one day of rally before it will go back above 80 which then becomes a drag on momentum. The MACD shows divergence is closing as would be expected prior to a change in trend and the chaiken money flow will probably move to about .3 today which is a level at which the money flow begins to leave the fund. Given that today's action is probably going to come on low volume, I am inclined to hold my position in the F. But if this morning looks like it is going to be something significant (i.e. we hit that .70% early) then I may decide to chase, because the market can always go where it wants regardless of the technical picture.

 

[Show-me]

Nice analysis Griffin!

 

[airlift]

I am really satistied with your analysis Griffin. Keep your mind clear of obstructions, as you have been doing! Thanks.

 

[vectorman]

Thanks Griffin. What do you see as support for the F fund? I really don't see the 10 yr Y getting higher than 4.75, and 4.7 in the recent past has been a buy. So if Iran releases the sailors there could been a pop up to 4.8, but I sure it will be bought up fairly quick. G may pay tomorrow.

 

[airlift]

I keep the CMF setting at 10, instead of 20. More volatile, but perhaps telling. Consider that yesterday at the close CMF(10) reached upward pressure reading of +.329. Money perhaps could start leaving today or tomorrow

 

[Gritz]

nice analysis Grif; well you got your .70% (.76% as of writing), might be room for one more day up tomorrow then a pull back.

 

[Griffin]

Good info, thanks.

I keep the CMF setting at 10, instead of 20. More volatile, but perhaps telling. Consider that yesterday at the close CMF(10) reached upward pressure reading of +.329. Money perhaps could start leaving today or tomorrow

 

[Griffin]

There is room to the downside for the F-fund, but I think we have an intermediate level of support here to play from. A sell-off driven flight to quality would drive up prices driving down yields.

I'm going to give it another hour before I make a decision.

View attachment 1546

Thanks Griffin. What do you see as support for the F fund? I really don't see the 10 yr Y getting higher than 4.75, and 4.7 in the recent past has been a buy. So if Iran releases the sailors there could been a pop up to 4.8, but I sure it will be bought up fairly quick. G may pay tomorrow.

 

[Griffin]

Last year seasonality was our enemy, maybe that will be good for this year. Anyway, I decided to chase but with a little caution so I'm going with the C-fund, it has a little more room to the upside then the S. This is a short term move and I don't like using the I-fund on short term moves due to the FV. On low volume, it does not take much to get a substantial move.

 

[Griffin]

So much for the follow through. I'm not real inclined to stick around in stocks for the unemployment and jobs reports. I think I'll go back and wait for my "flight to quality" position in the F-fund.

 

[Griffin]

The last half an hour has been interesting.

Market Talk on Yahoo is saying

12:30 pm : Buyers kick off the afternoon session with a renewed sense of enthusiasm as the indices break out of their narrow range and spike to their best levels of the day. The surge in volume, during a thinly-traded day no less, coupled with all three indices rising in synch with each other and logging roughly the same percentage gains within the last 30 minutes, is indicative of a buy program being executed.

A buy program? is that code for a pump and dump? Bloomberg is getting bullish for Monday

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aoMVeRqS0ui8&refer=news

This is from the same page on Yahoo:

11:55AM Bond Watch: Nothing to See Here (BONDX) : Treasuries are tethered in place in thin holiday trade along with caution ahead of the big marquee payrolls report. More & more are coming to the conclusion that the report will be a nonevent (leading other s to speculate that due to that sentiment the print will be an enormous miss). Either way, any knee-jerk overreactions will be tough to correct, or the churn will just whip prices hard. Without all the usual instruments trading in a normal fashion, allowing complex hedging there will almost certainly be some blood on the street even in the event of an on-the-money report. The curve has been trapped as well, with the 2-10-yr yield spread running at 5.4. Initial jobless claims were higher though currencies were mostly marching to their own beat, with notable rhythms coming from a weaker pound, stronger euro & mixed yen providing a mixed read on the buck. Spot gold is down at 673.20 (-1.15) while crude oil is off at 63.89 (-0.49). The euro is at 1.3425 & the yen is at 118.6500 while the 10-yr yield is at 4.565%. For more bond & economic commentary click here.

Finally - here's one of my favorite daily comments, it's a bit more obscure today then usual.

http://www.investinginbonds.com/news.asp?catid=36

It seems that a strong jobs report may be recieved as a positive. WHile that seems like a no-brainer, once again you have to consider the Fed reaction. Strong jobs report could significantly cut against a Fed decision to institute a rate cut. May be an excellent opportunity to play some whipsaw action.

 

[Griffin]

If I was not already in the F-fund, I would be moving into it today - I did not see the perception of the jobs report being so inflationary that it would spike bond yields. :worried:

 

[gunsmokex]

Just moved into the F fund today I think it has a lot of potential this week.

 

[Griffin]

View attachment 1553

The F-fund has dropped down to a solid level of support. Last week I expected it to turn around on a intermediate level of support. No such luck then, hopefully now is the time. Good luck.

Just moved into the F fund today I think it has a lot of potential this week.