goforit's Account Talk

[jpcavin]

! how does someone on the tracker that is 100% S show a plus for yesterday in daily gains when others show a negative??
They were in the G or F fund and made an IFT to S Fund effective cob yesterday.

What you see is the earnings of whatever allocation they had yesterday. If they are 100% S that just means they switched to S today...since S had a loss yesterday.

 

[goforit]

thanks for the answer to my question of how someone shows a positive in S when others show a negative. after i looked at it awhile to make sure i was seeing what i saw i figred it out. so.... i see benny spoke again this time negative and look at the market . boy the man can control the newsvesting market cant he?? i am staying right where i am this market thing is confused and sometimes so am i but i do know that at the end of the year if i am up in a positive i did good. like to see 10% for the year still alot of timeleft to get there or higher and maybe along the way i can get lucky. thanks again to those that answered my questions.

 

[goforit]

i see that all TSP funds are declining today and the volume is minor and they all seem to be insinc. i am not a rocket sciencetist(or market analyst) but i would think that this is an indication of the lack of confidence in the economy plus with earning reports not moving anything and the debt ceiling debate... i can't be for sure because i do not know how to look it up to see, but i remember a couple of times past that this happened it was a good down swing for awhile. the same goes for when all four go up it seems the matket goes up in a real good up swing. i will wait and see if it continues down for one or two days and decide then what to do.

hey tspintel on the wilshire 4500 chart today it show a leg down at the end of the chart, is this the second down leg of the "W" you talk about???

 

[goforit]

well the over night looks good and the bloomberg shows we could open to the positive. well after two of three days in triple digits and today looking like it could also be good my gut tells me to pull out and secure the gains. haven't done this much in the past three to four months and the gains have been small. but gains none the less. i will be pulling most out to the G by the deadline. i am not sure i want to pull all out or not. but the gut says to run. the debt ceiling and the overseas economies are very sketchy.

question?? If the gov can't pass the debt ceiling stuff and balance the budget where does one put their money in TSP? the G? the F? are those not gov. type funds and would it really be safe there? if the debt thing is not pass will this make the F(bonds) go up?

 

[WorkFE]

The Seven Setinals remains on a buy however as CH points out the system is not news driven. The Sentiment Survey, which is human generated opinions remains on a 100% S allocation unless I read it wrong. That can be very much news driven. Tough call.
As far as G and F- To my knowledge the G fund does not lose value, hopefully some else can expand on that. I don't even know what the F fund is, I know it's there but not how it works.

 

[goforit]

i know from what has been written in the tsp talk and the charts everyone puts out here that it appears we are on a leg up again, but, this market has shown(in my opinion) that it is all about the "news" and emotion. going back to earlier time around the tsunami (in my opinion) the market has been nothing but sitting and waiting for good,bad, ugly reports and then re-acts accordingly. old benny seems to talk and depends on his positive statements or negative statements the market re-acts. and then there is the european market.... anyway you get the idea. according to others that know how to read and interpret charts(i do not)its suppose to be a good gradual climb not just in the long term but also good buying and selling dips in the short term, also stocks are suppose to be cheaper then they have been in a long time, and most companies are showing gains over the last year or two(only because they have cut jobs and don't re-invest as much). to top this off you have to throw in all the reports of how the confidence level indicators are being used to sway people one way or the other depending on the level of confidence. so... this market here and now IS an emotional and "newsvesting" type market and if the gov can't agree to something it will shatter the confidence and people and companies will re-act accordingly.

but i will say WorkFE you have made me rethink about pulling because of what the market strength does say and the what people who read charts ssay. thanks for theinput

 

[goforit]

ok i did not move i will give it monday maybe tuesday. some of the tracker leaders are moving in and they seem to either know what they are doing or the have just timed their moves right. either way i am waiting one or two more days. besides congress is taking the weekend off because there is nothing pressing for them to do. right? i just sdded more stick um to my pants.

 

[goforit]

ok so why wouldn't the I fund explode. common thinking would tell me that seeing how our gov can't pass the debt ceiling it would naturally devalue the dollar to the overseas markets. even if the gov does do it(which they will in the 11th hour) S&P still might lower the US gov credit rating. this, you would think, will also lower the value of the US dollar here and abroad. so.. why wouldn't the I fund be a place to put some eggs. i have had only 5% in but i think by tomorrows deadline i may sit 70%S 30%I to see where it will go. now in my gut, WHEN the gov cuts the bull&^% and pass what we need the market is going to give back PLUS. just a gut feeling. besides if they dont it will be worse.

 

[Silverbird]

I fund is improving, but this is due mostly to the dollar's problems. "I" consists of mostly Western European and Japanese businesses. Japan still has problems from the nuclear power plant fiasco - most of the farms and fishing is in the northern part of the country, and the latest side affect I heard about was all the rice straw near the plant is contiminated - and that's what they feed cattle. The EU has a real debt problem in some of its countries, unlike our faux fur one (I'm sure we could borrow more money - Greece on the other hand....).

Caveat - faux fur still keeps you warm - tossing it away exposes you to the weather! :cheesy:

 

[goforit]

so if i hear you right you would most likely NOT go I fund because the europe markets are worst off then us? i think you may be right and also i did not make the cut off soo.... i am going to sit where i am and as the song goes "riding the storm out" may take from I and C and go 100% S by weeks end to start Aug out with two fresh IFT. this year is not over and the last four months are usually good with Sept being the buying oppurtunity month becaus eof its history of being down. my thoughts. thanks again silverbird.

 

[goforit]

well its been awhile since i made an appearance. decided to stay away because so many different and conflicting opinions including mine just made it hard to think of what to do in this market. so i waited and waited and took a pretty good hit after that debt ceiling crap hung on for about two more days and decided to get out into the F fund. of course that started out with a total of 1+% negative but now i have got that back + so i am there now 100% F as of 4 Aug. i will sit and see. its going to look like a see saw type storm for awhile and i am in the protect what i have mode. i will get back in just need to see more stability in the unemployment, housing, overseasmarket, dollar value, but more importantly the big corps need to stop sitting on their record profits and start to reinvest to get more worker hired. just a thought

 

[Birchtree]

If Obummer were to say he would not run in 2012, I think hiring would start up at a good clip.

 

[goforit]

i agree i also just seen on the headline news of the main page that goldman sachs wants the QE3 to move foward. doesn't the gov have enough debt. thanks obummer spend more but dont cut. like i have heard they say they are going to cut spending by 1+trillion he really means he is going to spend three times that much. of course this is only what i think.

 

[goforit]

still 100% F staying stable with it but don't want to stay with it. thought about jumping back into S last week but didn't. now looking for a down day here soon to use last IFT to get back in. the funds have been up the last three days to include today so i think the pattern will be a down day tomorrow and if so i am in if not someone tell me why i should get in ( i know as long as i get in at a lesser price then i got out is the ideal goal).

 

[Birchtree]

The question is, for long term investors, does analysis show that buying the day after a panic sell lead to above market returns - you bet. It's time to ride.

 

[goforit]

so then i missed it! the only reason i say that is that i got out at Sfund 20.54 a share. after todays gains it should be right back there. although it still is ok to get in and see the ride go high at this point i think i will wait to see if tomorrow is down a little to get in lower( fridays price per share would have been ideal, but easy come easy go, my bad) ok next question: is there a correlation to Obummers popularity on the down slide the last few days vs. the upside to the market? what if there is, we all should be in because as he keeps spending and debting the US he will not be popular.(hahaha)

 

[goforit]

well missed this down day to get in. can't complain the F fund is at least getting me some plus up. is there going to be a snap back tomorrow and then only to see it drop on monday. to many things here in the US point to lower lows. like the unemployment claims went higher then expected, new housing start ups are not exactly creating a up trend and again big corp not investing, but the cost of things have gone up a little too. the only thing i see that is good for the consumer is the price of oil per barrel has come done significantly during this mess and the price of gas has come down a little with it. silver lining? lets see what tomorrow brings.

 

[goforit]

way to much market confusion to even think of when to jump. most people here on the board think this thing is going to keep going down with just a few spikes higher in between and then down more. someone said to wait for it to level out for a few days and then watch it go up. i am looking for a steady but slow climb up with a few down days that don't erase any consecutive positive days completely. this will tell me that people will be more confident in the market and MAYBE big corp america can reinvest their muti-billion dollar profits they are sitting on. holding in F, at least there i see a little climb up off my negative number for the year. never really liked SEPT because i seem to remember reading somewhere that SEPT is like the second or third worst month for the market i don't know for sure but....(anyone else hear that)

have fun and good day to all its a beautiful life if you can breath.

 

[goforit]

should i or shouldn't i i really want to get in SOON! thinking now is the time. but with the experts saying this is an extremely overbought market and BENNY speaking(when he speaks nothing is good about it because it is just words lets see the action). really need to get out of the -9.74 hole i dug myself by holding through all the turmoil. so back to my question some one convince me that i should get in? or stay in F but i don't like the F either because i just don't see it really gaining anything for awhile because it seems to be in a territory of give gains but take more back due to the 2% yield on the treasury notes and to drop below that its not likely. so should i use the last IFT and hit the sidelines in G or should i jump in and hope for that labor day rally and then jump out.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm going to hold my tugboat (TSP) position of 20C/80I until hell freezes over - and keep on buying equities every chance I get. I think the Fed will provide us with something positive. If that happens it's off to the races with corporate profits still strong. A big French bank thinks the Fed will keep rates low through 2015.