goforit's Account Talk

[Mapper]

Re: Sensei's comment
If you actually read the prospectus for the funds you'll be shocked and sickened by how much money MANY different people make managing those funds. Especially when you realize it's not terribly difficult to do as good or better managing your own money as a hobby. The financial service industry is pretty much a pyramid scheme.

That said, the vast majority of folks have no interest in learning how manage their own money, therefore paying a "professional" to do it IS better than just setting it adrift.

 

[Mapper]

Yep, you are right Sensei. This guy supposedly provides free financial advice via the credit union I use, so I thought I'd give it a try. But he was pretty adament that "timing" was a good way to lose money fast and that the long-term "buy and hold" strategy always outperformed timing. He made some good arguments with charts, numbers, etc., and showed me stuff over the life of the stock markets. But in the end, I think the CU provides investments management for clients and he's just trying to make me a client. ... I'd love to hear from others who have had the repeated results that GoForIt described ... that would help remove any lingering doubts.

For the vast majority of his clients he many be right. You just need to decide if you fit the same profile as most of his clients.

I like this metaphor: Most people get the best results from their vehicle by using professional mechanics. I, however, spent years learning how to wrench on a car AND I have acquired tools...unless time becomes a limiting factor, for me (as opposed to most people), hiring a mechanic is just throwing money away. I still recommend most of my friends use a mechanic because they don't understand how cars work...thankfully I can use my knowledge to point them to a good mechanic who wont fleece them!!

 

[Ron55]

Hi everyone!

I'm wondering what the market will do tomorrow? I was thinking of jumping back into more of the S-Fund before 09:00 PTZ, currently my position is 75% F, 15% S and 10%I. Reading some of the posts on this TSP site I'm getting mixed signals. Any thoughts from anyone?

 

[imike023]

Hi everyone!

I'm wondering what the market will do tomorrow? I was thinking of jumping back into more of the S-Fund before 09:00 PTZ, currently my position is 75% F, 15% S and 10%I. Reading some of the posts on this TSP site I'm getting mixed signals. Any thoughts from anyone?

Hi Ron. From what I am seeing in the futures for tomorrow we shall be having some positive gains. Personally I will be going to the S fund tomorrow unless something major happens tomorrow morning. We can't tell you what to do with your money so keep reading and learning and you will have the info to decide.

 

[Khotso]

Hi Ron. From what I am seeing in the futures for tomorrow we shall be having some positive gains. Personally I will be going to the S fund tomorrow unless something major happens tomorrow morning. We can't tell you what to do with your money so keep reading and learning and you will have the info to decide.

Be careful. Futures are down this morning.

 

[imike023]

Hi Ron. From what I am seeing in the futures for tomorrow we shall be having some positive gains. Personally I will be going to the S fund tomorrow unless something major happens tomorrow morning. We can't tell you what to do with your money so keep reading and learning and you will have the info to decide.

Be careful. Futures are down this morning.

Indeed they are but not expecting a big letdown like yesterday. S fund here I come

 

[Ron55]

Indeed they are but not expecting a big letdown like yesterday. S fund here I come

Well guys I just did an IFT from 75% -F, 15%-S and 10%-I funds to 50%-G, 35%-S and 15%-I. So wish me some luck the transaction should go into effect at today's close. There is allot of good information on this board and sometimes its causes me to procasternate because of the different view points on how the Technicals are being interpreted. I'm beginning to wonder on whether or not I should sign up for one of the premium services on this site?

 

[goforit]

Ron55 how did your move work for you? i went 100% S and well it has not been good for this month. the seasonality did not hold its history but, with the last couple of months people saying correction correction correction it was bound to happen. went into the month about + 4% for the year and now as of today i am -.50% for the year so you can see how fast things can turn. like i said you have to decide for your self where and when and TIMING is really what counts in any market. this sucks for me but i know that i will get back some by years end. keep that in mind its not about one day or one month its about your entire life years you stay in the market. it may go bad for a long time but if you look at history it goes real good for longer periods of time. i believe we are in a 3-5 year market of less production in the market and are just starting to come out of it and we will see the next 5-7 years of good returns overall. keep reading and keep learning. I AM.

 

[Ron55]

Ron55 how did your move work for you? i went 100% S and well it has not been good for this month. the seasonality did not hold its history but, with the last couple of months people saying correction correction correction it was bound to happen. went into the month about + 4% for the year and now as of today i am -.50% for the year so you can see how fast things can turn. like i said you have to decide for your self where and when and TIMING is really what counts in any market. this sucks for me but i know that i will get back some by years end. keep that in mind its not about one day or one month its about your entire life years you stay in the market. it may go bad for a long time but if you look at history it goes real good for longer periods of time. i believe we are in a 3-5 year market of less production in the market and are just starting to come out of it and we will see the next 5-7 years of good returns overall. keep reading and keep learning. I AM.

Hi goforit!

So far I think I might be ~ 3% up for the year considering this markets recent down turn. I'm about a day off in catching the small market correction last week where I changed my position from 50% S/I to 100% S/I. My problem was that I jumped off the bull market ride in February (i.e. seven sentinals first sell indicator) and have been trying to get back in ever since. I do wish my patience would have held up a bit longer, like staying in F/G fund into this consolidation slide. Just thought there would be a mini bull run like we saw in March...so I wanted to catch it.

 

[goforit]

wel as i have said TIMING is everything in this market stuff. it has not worked out for me but i will just keep on trying. have not been good at it the last year plus and this year is no different. i may have to practice the buy and hold system for awhile because hit and run hasnt been good. oh well here comes may and i usually get burned by may so i am looking at moving out to G but leaving some in C/S maybe 20-25% each not sure yet we will see.

 

[Birchtree]

Buy and Hold in a bull market makes life easy.

 

[goforit]

i agree. maybe we all should take a page from ronco and "set and forget it". just kidding. my problem is this is my only investment (TSP) and well i am trying to make the most of it. like to get to 500k mark before retiring in five or less years and sitting at 275k now it just doesn't look promising. the sooner i get there the sooner i can retire from my Fed Tech. job and the Military. i have 32 years in military coming dec this year and well i am tired. and i have 24yrs tech come nov and well i am tired. plus i am only 49 come sept. so buy an hold may be the way to go. what do you think of the L funds? i am one to say if i go 100% in the risk funds(CSI) then the return is better pay off but so is the loss. L funds spread it out but is the return going to be quicker?? thanks birch.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm of the opinion that the S&P index (C fund) is the way to go for the next several years. My wife has a defined contribution plan and is 100% in an SPX index fund - making close to $27K a point. She took in +$86K the last six months which is good money. So as a family unit we have the bases covered.

 

[goforit]

thanks for the advice i will take a look at it. have my MIL TSP sitting 100% C and its PIP is 24% right now and i have tech TSP in 100% S and its PIP is 7.5 maybe i should just play them both the same. MIL seems to always out do my Tech. i hol long term on my mil is why i think it doing better. thanks again.

 

[Ron55]

What do you use to help you with your timing decisions? If you look at Tracker some of the guys have been doing an excellent job on their returns for the year.

 

[Birchtree]

Many tracker guys get out at the first sign of any market distress - but their positions are only temporary because they lag on getting back in.

 

[FAAM]

I'm of the opinion that the S&P index (C fund) is the way to go for the next several years. My wife has a defined contribution plan and is 100% in an SPX index fund - making close to $27K a point. She took in +$86K the last six months which is good money. So as a family unit we have the bases covered.

GOFORIT -- I empathize w/your troubles. I'm former Military, & my only real investment is TSP. I also have not done great last year or this (gain very little yet thankful not to Lose too).
(BIRCHTREE: Thanks again for your sharing here. I'm thankful for your views "on the markets and investing"; respect ya bunches but don't see eye-to-eye on the politics... so thanks for these type comments here & on your account talk.)

So, I certainly am not any expert on investing... but I know long-term (like more than a year these days) is NOT the best strategy. It worked great in the late-80's thru 90's when Mrkt basically kept going up & up. Look at it since then, ups & downs, steady at times, but highs for recent 3-years arn't getting to what they were in '07-'08. The quick-trading/ timing hasn't worked out for many of us either... so I might suggest a modified approach.
Market may bounce around or be generally down for next few months or year. Yes, as B.T. reminds us, it could ratchet up too. However, though US market seems to be finding foundation overall, it is still a generally slow-grow; yet international troubles realistically seem like they'll get worse before better and will take (likely years) to come out (China/ India/ S. America slowing, EU long-term troubles, etc.). So, perhaps I was considering doing L2020 (or approximately) type fund for TSP now... if Mrkt takes off up, you get some share of the gain, but if it drops then your pain is fairly minimal... & then... start moving a little at a time into L2030 or L2040 if market has dropped quite a bit overall (maybe a year from now, or two or so??). That way, if/when Market starts generally going Up again, you'll reap more rewards, buying a lot at LOW(ish) and can sell at HIgh(ish). Don't know... Just thinking.
Good Luck to all of us!

 

[goforit]

Ron55 i try to really look at the seasonality because fifty years is alot of data but dont use this as the only thing. i listen to people on this board and i watch "nightly business news" on PBS. i also try to listen some of the mainsrteam news for any market updates. but mainly when you put all this stuff together you have to get in or out as you see fit. like Birch said some people get out too soon and some get in too late because of the first sign of distresss.

to FAAM

thanks for the thought its interesting. even thought the L funds were not created to becaome a regular trading fund you may have and idea that is intriging. L funds are created for those who dont want to mess with their TSP but yet stay diversified.

 

[Ron55]

I appreciate both yours and Birch's comments. Kind of interesting Mr. JR has now turned bullish whereas Ken Johnson has done a quick flip from being in the market to being out. I read both of their accounts and do like both of their opinions, but a new guy can easily get confused.

 

[goforit]

i hear you about the confusion. it seems that if you would chart those that say the market is good and the market is bad it would be a 50/50 split. i hate to say it but sometimes gut feeling do work but not too often good luck.