goforit's Account Talk

[jpcavin]

I'll pick up what you leave on the table providing my pockets are deep enough.

They do sell culottes with really deep pockets. Vintage c 1980s Yellow Culottes Shorts with Deep by smallLaundry

 

[goforit]

if i do leave you can have whats left. still may not... only have 300K in tsp for my investment porfolio and would like to go in two but wife says no i will only be 51 then so i may wait till 54. trying for a 2% gaol a month sitting at 2.9 for the year and well i missed the first ride up at the begining so i have been debating a buy hold or hit and run.

 

[goforit]

cant afford to stay I fund if i want to hit my goal this year so i just pulled out 15C 15S 70 G. I fund just hasnt held up. think i will stay away from it for awhile again. birch you can pick up the crumbs i left in the I fund. sorry i couldnt be made to believe in the I fund yet.

 

[goforit]

jumped into S fund 100% the last day of Mar just got tired of playing conservative again and well even though everyone is screaming pull back i will test the seasonality for april it looks nothing but good and then try to come up wilh a plan for May until OCT because those months just seem to be junk for the buy and hold. i dont really like buy and hold but if i would have well you all see what the ones who have held in S all year have got on their returns nicely done. Maybe just Maybe this will be a little different this summer with the election year in full stride and the economy really trying to stay healthy. we will see. good luck

 

[Ron55]

jumped into S fund 100% the last day of Mar just got tired of playing conservative again and well even though everyone is screaming pull back i will test the seasonality for april it looks nothing but good and then try to come up wilh a plan for May until OCT because those months just seem to be junk for the buy and hold. i dont really like buy and hold but if i would have well you all see what the ones who have held in S all year have got on their returns nicely done. Maybe just Maybe this will be a little different this summer with the election year in full stride and the economy really trying to stay healthy. we will see. good luck

Hi goforit!

Ive been waiting on this market myself....looks like I missed the bus for the months of February and March. So I moved 15% S and 10% I funds at the end of march. Looking to add maybe 25% more perhaps during the week...was hoping for some decent pull back.

 

[nasa1974]

Hi goforit!

Ive been waiting on this market myself....looks like I missed the bus for the months of February and March. So I moved 15% S and 10% I funds at the end of march. Looking to add maybe 25% more perhaps during the week...was hoping for some decent pull back.

Ron55, welcome to the board.

 

[Khotso]

jumped into S fund 100% the last day of Mar just got tired of playing conservative again and well even though everyone is screaming pull back i will test the seasonality for april it looks nothing but good and then try to come up wilh a plan for May until OCT because those months just seem to be junk for the buy and hold. i dont really like buy and hold but if i would have well you all see what the ones who have held in S all year have got on their returns nicely done. Maybe just Maybe this will be a little different this summer with the election year in full stride and the economy really trying to stay healthy. we will see. good luck

Re: Buy and hold -- I saw a financial adviser yesterday for the first time in 20 years. He advised that the only and best way to grow investments is through a long-term diversified portfolio that you hold through thick and thin. He was appalled that I am currently entirely invested in equities (which I only recently did so missed most of the Jan-March rally) and used my current annual returns compared to market returns so far this year as evidence that timing just doesn't work. I told him I lost 25% of my retirement savings in 2008 via "buy and hold" to which he simply replied that I would have gained most of it back had I just hung in there instead of jumping (panicking) into cash at the market low point and then sitting there through most of 2009 out of fear. I have to say that even though I've heard and discounted this argument before, it was quite convincing. I now find myself in the position of being eligible to retire, wanting to, but not being comfortable with absorbing the 12-13% reduction in net annual income. The question is: Had I stayed the course in 2008, would I be comfortable with my current finances to retire now?

My question to all: can anyone point me to any good books/articles that make a convincing argument that market timing ultimately surpasses a diversified buy and hold strategy?

 

[Mapper]

The problem with what you did was jumping out at the low and then waiting too long to jump back in. It's a common problem, hence why buy and hold will work better for many people. If you want to swing trade you need to work so that, as much as humanly possible, you buy in at lower prices than you sell at..."buy low, sell high". Easier said than done...and takes a lot of time. You need to be right twice (on the buy AND the sell).

It can be done though. It takes some cajones to move all your money in/out hoping you're timing it right. Big moves like 2008/2009 are the most important to time correctly.

 

[Khotso]

The problem with what you did was jumping out at the low and then waiting too long to jump back in. It's a common problem, hence why buy and hold will work better for many people. If you want to swing trade you need to work so that, as much as humanly possible, you buy in at lower prices than you sell at..."buy low, sell high". Easier said than done...and takes a lot of time. You need to be right twice (on the buy AND the sell).

It can be done though. It takes some cajones to move all your money in/out hoping you're timing it right. Big moves like 2008/2009 are the most important to time correctly.

Thanks Mapper. I really didn't pay any attention to my TSP until 2008-09. When CSRS were let into it, I contributed 50C-50G and left it that way for years. Didn't do my first IFT till 2008.

I guess what I'm really looking for is some evidence that timing/swing trading does outperform "buy and hold" even in the long term. It obviously takes more time. But this guy was pretty adament that it doesn't -- and made a pretty strong case. On the other hand, I implicitly don't trust him because he manages other people's money and would oibviously like to manage mine.

Can anyone show me long-term evidence that swing trading/timing outperforms B&H long term?

 

[Mapper]

The problem is that everyone's result is different. I guess you can look at the Autotracker results and see how/if/when people trading beat the larger indexes and mutual funds.

For example. The indexes ended flat last year but even with a couple of bad trades I made 12.73%. I'm very happy I managed my accounts, but everyone has different results.

 

[Khotso]

The problem is that everyone's result is different. I guess you can look at the Autotracker results and see how/if/when people trading beat the larger indexes and mutual funds.

For example. The indexes ended flat last year but even with a couple of bad trades I made 12.73%. I'm very happy I managed my accounts, but everyone has different results.

Yeah, I did pretty well last year too -- 10.38%. But this year I'm lagging -- currently 1.81% -- so it's kind of a wash. I definitely lean toward timing as a strategy (well, swing trading), but it sure woiuld be good to see evidence that it actually does work for all those who make the effort.

 

[goforit]

Yeah, I did pretty well last year too -- 10.38%. But this year I'm lagging -- currently 1.81% -- so it's kind of a wash. I definitely lean toward timing as a strategy (well, swing trading), but it sure woiuld be good to see evidence that it actually does work for all those who make the effort.

thanks for all the talk. i have played both buy and hold/ sell low buy high. in my opinion they both take a strong stomache to stay the course and good timing. of which timing is the hardest. i became more aware(involved) in my TSP because of 9/11. the market crashed i lost a lot. thats when a fellow co-worker asked me several months after the crash if i had moved my money(not knowing really how to do it) he then proceeded to tell me he did months ago and i told him thanks for telling me. i then realized it was up to me and no one else to work my TSP so fast foward to now i have increased my TSP earnings every year since 2004 by using one of the above method except in 2009(only decreased about 3% from 2008) my timing was off and i did the hit and run approach. if you are buying and holding you still need to pay attention to your account as if you are buying low selling high because if the market decides to just keep going lower like it did back a few years ago to the levels it did why would you stay in until it bottoms out if you catch it early you can shift to G hold there until it starts back up and still jump in at a significantly lower share price and gain more shares then when you had when you jumped out hence forth more return on the way up. as of right now i am going to do the hold for awhile because this market just doesn't seem to want to pull back and i will say it, BT always predicted something likie this happening and i think his words were hold on to the train as it takes off to higher highs. this is not a qoute. so.. bottom line is stay involved with TSP its your money. only you can direct it.

 

[goforit]

hello Ron55 welcome to the board. like many will tell you read read read and listen to what others are doing on these boards. lots of knowledge out here. hard to absorb all of it so take your time and start out with three or four of the season(not me)vets then slowly add more people to read and converse with as you get comfortable. many good ideas and well some bad ones too but thats the market. you decide what to do with your investment no one else. welcome again

 

[imike023]

The problem is that everyone's result is different. I guess you can look at the Autotracker results and see how/if/when people trading beat the larger indexes and mutual funds.

For example. The indexes ended flat last year but even with a couple of bad trades I made 12.73%. I'm very happy I managed my accounts, but everyone has different results.

Same here ended up with over 10% gain for 2011. You just have to time it correctly to get in and know when to get out to get the most profit out of your money. Of course knowing when is not easy. So far this year I am about about 2.75% Still early still more money to be had.

 

[goforit]

i did ok last year with a 6.95% considering i was -11.50% +/- going into mid october. usually end up around the 10-12% for the year with the way i think i know what i am doing or just lucky. right now my Fed tsp 12month PIP is about 9% and my MIL TSP 12 month PIP is 21% i pretty much hold in the mil moving a few times through out the year and in the FED i try to time it so for those of you wanting some evidence that buy hold works better well for me it seems to if you compare both accounts. again i say TIMING is everything buy low sell high or set it and forget it???

 

[Khotso]

thanks for all the talk. i have played both buy and hold/ sell low buy high. in my opinion they both take a strong stomache to stay the course and good timing. of which timing is the hardest. i became more aware(involved) in my TSP because of 9/11. the market crashed i lost a lot. thats when a fellow co-worker asked me several months after the crash if i had moved my money(not knowing really how to do it) he then proceeded to tell me he did months ago and i told him thanks for telling me. i then realized it was up to me and no one else to work my TSP so fast foward to now i have increased my TSP earnings every year since 2004 by using one of the above method except in 2009(only decreased about 3% from 2008) my timing was off and i did the hit and run approach. if you are buying and holding you still need to pay attention to your account as if you are buying low selling high because if the market decides to just keep going lower like it did back a few years ago to the levels it did why would you stay in until it bottoms out if you catch it early you can shift to G hold there until it starts back up and still jump in at a significantly lower share price and gain more shares then when you had when you jumped out hence forth more return on the way up. as of right now i am going to do the hold for awhile because this market just doesn't seem to want to pull back and i will say it, BT always predicted something likie this happening and i think his words were hold on to the train as it takes off to higher highs. this is not a qoute. so.. bottom line is stay involved with TSP its your money. only you can direct it.

Thanks GOFORIT! Sounds like timing has worked really well for you. That's helpful knowledge. As I said, I only started paying attention in 2008-09 -- after losing a truck load (and the only reason I was aware of that was the news -- you couldn't avoid it). Anyway, I appreciate your taking the time to share your experience. Talking to a "professional" got me thinking -- which is probably what he wanted me to do. Next visit (he's supposed to have a retirement outlook and options for me) he'll probably try to talk me into an investment program. I think you're absolutely right -- you have to pay attention to it yourself -- no one else has your absolute best interests in mind. And you have to spend time studying, watching and learning. That's what's so good about this site -- so much info and insight is shared every day!

 

[Sensei]

The way I look at the "pros" who push buy and hold in Vanguard, or something along those lines, is that they (or their big bucks companies) just take our money and use it to buy low, sell high for themselves. After outperforming us for 20-30 years, they're only happy to give us back our principal plus 6%, or whatever those Vanguard ETFs are projected to earn over the long haul.

 

[Khotso]

The way I look at the "pros" who push buy and hold in Vanguard, or something along those lines, is that they (or their big bucks companies) just take our money and use it to buy low, sell high for themselves. After outperforming us for 20-30 years, they're only happy to give us back our principal plus 6%, or whatever those Vanguard ETFs are projected to earn over the long haul.

Yep, you are right Sensei. This guy supposedly provides free financial advice via the credit union I use, so I thought I'd give it a try. But he was pretty adament that "timing" was a good way to lose money fast and that the long-term "buy and hold" strategy always outperformed timing. He made some good arguments with charts, numbers, etc., and showed me stuff over the life of the stock markets. But in the end, I think the CU provides investments management for clients and he's just trying to make me a client. ... I'd love to hear from others who have had the repeated results that GoForIt described ... that would help remove any lingering doubts.

 

[goforit]

Snsi you are right about the pros. they seem to charge you just to look at the account. i only invest into TSP because i control it and i dont get an unexpected charge for any transaction. plus i dont trust the pros because my four children had money set aside from grandparents and it never grew to what it was supposse to be so when they turned 18(only two so far) we with drew it and it made a good down payment on a car for them. basically like i have said we all need to take care of our investment because we are the ones with the best interest for us

 

[Ron55]

Thanks goforit! That is what I'm trying to is an expert in none do now is learn from everyone. I'm kind of like the guy that has tried everything, but is an expert in none.