FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Are we at an inflection point? Inquiring minds want to know....and I'm guessing the truth will be revealed after our IFT cut-off time....In the meantime, a little humor for all my TSP friends..

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I'm laughing but only because I realize the cartoonist got it backwards!! :smile:

 

[FogSailing]

I'm looking at today like the 1st day of a Government Shutdown. It will get worse as time goes on and some folks are going to be hurt in a bad way, Agriculture but also many manufacturing and industrial firms. I'm really not a fan of these tariffs. I hope they can get resolved quickly, but I get the feeling this is going to take time. Right now expecting 2770-2780 tomorrow on SPX.

FS

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I'm guessing 2855-2840 area tomorrow and a deeper retrace after Friday. Wouldn't be surprised to see us retouch the December lows. Who know what happens after we pullback. This has been a very robust market and the economy is still very strong.

FS

Nice Call!

 

[FogSailing]

Today I think we'll see SPX at 2778 IF it retreats under 2820, which I think is probable. Then, because of the of the strength of the market perhaps a bounce back to 2834. My analysis is changing day to day because of the strength of the current market. My current big picture thinking is that the trade war effect will hit us hard sometime next fall. So my 2100 prediction just moved out 6 months to March 2020. Time will tell.

FS

 

[userque]

Today I think we'll see SPX at 2778 IF it retreats under 2820, which I think is probable. Then, because of the of the strength of the market perhaps a bounce back to 2834. My analysis is changing day to day because of the strength of the current market. My current big picture thinking is that the trade war effect will hit us hard sometime next fall. So my 2100 prediction just moved out 6 months to March 2020. Time will tell.
FS

I normally only look out ahead a month or so, but I looked under the hood of a few of my models based on our chat yesterday ... lo and behold, one of the three did forecast a huge, multi-leg, drop (27% total from yesterday's close) ... in the latter part of this August. Like your analysis, my forecasts can change daily. Until I get an actual signal, they don't mean much to me and I assume they're inaccurate .

 

[nasa1974]

Historically June has not been a good month for stocks and July isn't much better. Although the last 3 years have been positive years for July.

 

[nasa1974]

Just for reference this is what the TSP funds have done since 1988.

View attachment 44379

 

[FogSailing]

One of traders I follow has posted this EW scenario which is currently the main scenario I've been following for a while.. Based on the strength of the market, we could very possibly break out of the Bollinger bands and get to 3000+ territory before the C Wave arrives and down we go. Of course, there are many theories out there. Good luck to all in your investing.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

The last time 13 and 34 DMA's crossed was back in late January...
The market has been on a tear since..
They almost crossed back again yesterday..
Suggest folks keep their eyes on that pattern..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'm enjoying the ride up. Guessing it stops just short of 2900 with 150-160 point reversal. Sometime later next week, probably Friday. The wife and I are off to Texas for barbeque, country music, a few margaritas, and our 45th wedding anniversary. See everyone in a few weeks when we get back...

FS

 

[weatherweenie]

Congrats on the 45th!

I'm enjoying the ride up. Guessing it stops just short of 2900 with 150-160 point reversal. Sometime later next week, probably Friday. The wife and I are off to Texas for barbeque, country music, a few margaritas, and our 45th wedding anniversary. See everyone in a few weeks when we get back...

FS

 

[nnuut]

I'm enjoying the ride up. Guessing it stops just short of 2900 with 150-160 point reversal. Sometime later next week, probably Friday. The wife and I are off to Texas for barbeque, country music, a few margaritas, and our 45th wedding anniversary. See everyone in a few weeks when we get back...

FS

Congratulations The Wife and I are at 41, but I've been married twice!!

 

[nasa1974]

FS, Congrats on #45. We celebrate #40 this year.

 

[FogSailing]

WAVE COUNTERS ARE CONCERNED NEXT WEEK COULD BE TOUGH BY MIDWEEK..HERE'S A CHART. GOOD LUCK OUT THERE.

FS

 

[nnuut]

WAVE COUNTERS ARE CONCERNED NEXT WEEK COULD BE TOUGH BY MIDWEEK..HERE'S A CHART. GOOD LUCK OUT THERE.

FS

What Chart?

 

[Tsunami]

I follow 2 wave counters....one is extremely bearish and one extremely bullish right now, I've never seen them at such extreme odds with each other. The bullish guy does allow for about a 4% further pullback though before the blastoff begins.

 

[FogSailing]

My guess is that we hit the 2720 area tomorrow and then bounce on Tuesday. I expect Wed-Thurs to be down to even. And no idea about Friday. And therein lies the big question. Macroeconomics teaches us that tariffs restrict optimizing the flow of goods. They result in a smaller economy. At some point, these tariffs are going to bite us. Markets are always ahead of the power curve. So I look to Friday to give us a sign on where things are really headed.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well, those tariffs are finally biting us in the ass. We have the big drop from 3029 with a healthy retracement and now, this week, what very much looks like a continuation down. As a wave counter.....If the initial drop was only “A” and the retracement was “B”, we now have i of C down looking for ii of C up with iii of C to follow. Still a very bearish situation because after iii of 3, iii of C is the teddy bear’s next best friend. What you need to “bear” in mind is a of ii of C on the ES made it to 2871.50 on the pre-cash market spike. ES is now in c of ii of C and there is no guarantee there will not be a truncation. Equities are very weak across the globe. FWIW 62% retrace lies near 2893. My opinion bullish above 2893 and bearish below.....from the for what it's worth department...

FS

 

[Tsunami]

That's the same count I'm seeing some gurus show. I'm banking on wave B not yet being over and with lots of jawboning next week from Jackson Hole and calming nerves in tariff-land that we'll actually see a decent bounce to at least 2950. I'm jumping in today. Wish I'd made the move yesterday since Friday's are almost always up and today looks to be a strong one, but I was travelling.