FogSailing's Account Talk

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With the Dow slightly positive, it looks like investors migrated to the Dow as they try to avoid the upcoming pullback. I think it has begun. If it crosses under 2620, SPX appears headed to support at 2602. From there, only the shadow knows.
Still predicting 2100 by May.
 
Anyone else sensing we’re at that point where everyone is confused on what this is. It doesn’t appear to be going down but at the same time, the rallies are way different to anything we saw over past several years. They either go straight up, usually based on jawboning or the anticipation of jawboning, or they chop about. The next clean move is pretty clearly down to me but this could drag on a few more weeks first. The price action isn’t healthy or supportive of significant further upside. And from my perspective the economic factors are just not robust. But, we may hit 2675 before the market does a real turnaround. I'm just watching from the sidelines. Fibs to watch 2675, 2620, 2602, 2575, 2525...

FS
 
Transports used to be the canary in the coal mine. Looks like they have formed a falling channel. No idea if it holds, but something to be aware of..

FS
 
At this point, I'm still waiting for stocks to fall below 2600. I noted this morning the bollinger bands are separating on the SPX. Also, it wasn't pierced 2670. Just continued back and forth chop. Holding until i see a good price to buy back in.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Transports used to be the canary in the coal mine. Looks like they have formed a falling channel. No idea if it holds, but something to be aware of..

FS
Click to expand...

But don't forget your transports canary. ^DJT up more than 2500 since December 17. I made the mistake of thinking it had topped after a "V" bottom on January 6-7 (coming up on 24000 mark) and bailed. Saw the consolidation around 24500-24700 at a breath before more movement up. Last time I could find ^DJT movement like that was spring/early summer of 18 so I rolled the dice and got in. Wish I had pulled the trigger then (around the 14th) but waited till the 18th when I thought another breakout was coming. Then, going into the 22nd (Holiday weekend) we got an inverted head and shoulders on the ^DJT with a hard drop. CLimbing since then and I'm not calling victory yet but today sure helps. Up about 100 pts on the SnP since the 14th. At least I'm positive on this trade! Hopefully I can keep it!

Addition:
I looked at the DJT after I typed the above and am not liking the spike and drop with less than an hour left for trading. I will have to watch Oscar twice tonight!
 
Last edited:
I was hoping the SPX wouldn't pierce 2670. It did on the same day i expected it not to. At this point, resistance is at 2730. I still expect a pullback and I'm holding till that happens. I don't think I'll have to wait too long. Fibs say a potential pullback to as low as 2480 is possible. I read today there are Vegas bets that Pats Win - SPX up, Pats lose - SPX down. Since i think most folks think Pats have it in the bag, I'm guessing Rams pull the game off with a win. I have no skin in this game, but I don't really care for the Pats.

Good Luck out there..

FS
 
Right now my instincts say the market is due a pullback BUT it sure isn't acting that way. Resistance is now at 2790. Support is 2738 and 2722. The market has been melting up over the past ten days. Today's slight pullback appears minimal and indicates to me that there is still a lot of strength. I won't be surprised with a bit more meltup. That said, EU Auto Tariffs go into effect on the 17th. I expect that's the kind of thing that will cause the market to pause.

Good luck out. Congrats if you caught this melt up.

FS
 
So looking forward a bit, here are the likely suspects that may impact the domestic marker: February 15th and Possible Shutdown. Auto tariffs by the 18th and the Mueller report. Based o tonights news, it sounds to me like Cohen isn't testifying because of things going on behind the scenes (which I read as Mueller and FBI). Because we closed at 2723, we are under support and can expect a further pullback to 2700. Who knows what happens after. The big kahuna's (the 200 dma and the Death Cross) are there and play a powerful force in the market. No idea when they are invalidated.

Time will tell if this is pullback to 2700 with continuation of a Bear rally to 2810, or the beginning of a larger correction.

FS
 
I have to laugh. Last time i posted Cohen wasn't testifying and the auto tariffs were the big potentials downers. Now all you hear is BS about positive news in trade with China. The market has melted up. So now people are talking a possible double top at 2914..

I guessing more like 2810-2820 then SURPRISE...

Time will tell.

I still think we'll see 2100 by May. And since I'm usually wrong. Why stop now?:D:D:D

FS
 
I meant to add to that...the buy signal on that chart #57 currently looks a lot like late 2015 when the 50 week moving average started curling up then the bottom fell out of the market again. I'm not predicting that will happen, but it's possible given the extreme nature of these up and down moves.

...and FS, what the heck do you have blowing into our state from AZ today? I've never had to pick up the blown over garbage cans on the street so many times in one day LOL. Supposed to snow yet again tonight. Been reading predictions about a mini ice age based on sun spot cycles and this February weather has me wondering!
 
Tsunami said:
I meant to add to that...the buy signal on that chart #57 currently looks a lot like late 2015 when the 50 week moving average started curling up then the bottom fell out of the market again. I'm not predicting that will happen, but it's possible given the extreme nature of these up and down moves.

...and FS, what the heck do you have blowing into our state from AZ today? I've never had to pick up the blown over garbage cans on the street so many times in one day LOL. Supposed to snow yet again tonight. Been reading predictions about a mini ice age based on sun spot cycles and this February weather has me wondering!
Click to expand...

Weather has been totally strange lately, even Hawaii had snow a couple weeks ago in Maui.
 
You should have been here TS. We've never had a weather pattern like this here in their history. Most snow in the mountains ever...temps are cold. I've become a warm weather guy and we were getting into the 20's. Unheard of. Glad it blew out of here and went somewhere else...Just sorry you got some of this..

What do you do when the Elliott wavers say the probability is things should be headed south and the technical indicators say not so much...

Decisions, decisions, decisions...

FS
 
Well, I now think the move to 2817 was corrective. We are seeing lower highs. So my original expectations still hold. Next up is a correction to roughly 2700. That is the first major line of resistance. I see this wave correcting down to the 2560 region before the next major corrective wave. I'm still holding out for 2100 in May. However, in the meantime I do expect oil to move up. I think it would be a good thing to invest for the short term if you trade stocks and commodities. All the best in your investing.

FS
 
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