FogSailing's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yep ..I THOUGHT S Fund should start moving up at a higher rate than C fund. uggh...S fund down right now -.52% and C fund up .19%.
hope it improves!

 

[felixthecat]

Me too! I just feel an C/S rally coming. Could be a blinding light before the train hits u in the tunnel.

 

[tom4jean]

I took half off the table and went 50% split between c + s. Always appreciate your commentary.

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[FogSailing]

Given that we've now pierced 2646 (support), the next downward stops are 2623, 2608, 2583, 2571...

Oh well, here we go with the afternoon fun..

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

I have that 2646 as the top of the support range (talking floor) with bottom resistance at 2738. We seem, maybe, hopefully, to be holding above that. Fingers crossed we go up.

 

[FogSailing]

If we pierce 2646, my guess is we now head to 2632. We should pivot there. if not, 2619 is the next opportunity to turn this thing around.
I still don't see us having a huge down until after the FOMC meeting next week so I'm still optimistic we get back above 2671, and then we re-evaluate.

I will say this...don't think about things like a Santa Rally. Don't do as i do...

What i am seeing is a lot of chop...and being an old sailor i can tell you...that stuff is just disgusting.

Standing by for heavy rolls tomorrow...

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

I would like to see that 2604 range tested again before a bounce. I would feel better about getting in on any upside after that happened. As the indexes stand now, any trade a person makes is pretty high risk. As the saying goes for traders (I just read it on an AF chat so am stealing it)...A little greed is fine but let's try not to be stupid.

I guess I was stupid. Should have waited for 2604 to retest. Oh well! I'm riding till Monday and see what happens. I have a few percent buffer left on my imaginary stop loss

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Me too... but its not much of a buffer for me.

 

[FogSailing]

Those rolls were heavier than I expected.. More of a full on ROGUE WAVE....
I am expecting a small bounce, now , followed by more downside.
If we bounce Monday, I'm selling into limited strength and will come back to fight another day.
I think Raven has it right. More downside yet to happen and if we rally it will probably happen after Xmas.

FS

 

[tom4jean]

Those rolls were heavier than I expected.. More of a full on ROGUE WAVE....
I am expecting a small bounce, now , followed by more downside.
If we bounce Monday, I'm selling into limited strength and will come back to fight another day.
I think Raven has it right. More downside yet to happen and if we rally it will probably happen after Xmas.

FS

I agree any bounce and it's time to get out for now, thanks for the commentary.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

 

[FogSailing]

On Friday, I hypothesized a 20 point gain today and planned on selling into strength..
What was i smoking? Another 2% down....
I'm thinking we may see our first crash ever in December..
Tonight China is talking their economy...what will tomorrow bring?
I think the Fed has been loud and clear on it's plans, and i don't think they are changing..
So, one theory is that these pullbacks are like pulling taut on a slingshot and we're going to go ballistic.
Another is that we are well into a major market decline.

I guess I'm hoping that the slingshot theory works for at least one day, and sends the market positive.
Like everyone else in the market, i plan to sell and get out..
Of course, that is when the market will decide it's time to make money..

Good luck and stay alert..
This stuff is moving fast.



FS

 

[ravensfan]

Well we took out 2550 today with a close of 2545.94, and we haven't even gotten to the FOMC meeting yet. So now what, down to 2478 or even scarier 2350?

My move to bail on 7 Dec at 2633.08 was a smart move. Now all I have to do is not blow it by getting back in to soon and having Mr. Market eat up my 2017 profits. Yep I said 2017 profits as my last trade ate up all of 2018...Maybe sitting this one out in the G fund isn't such a bad strategy...

Good luck and thanks for your insight.

 

[Tsunami]

If there's gonna be a sizable rally it should get going very soon, maybe with some much-needed rocket fuel from the Fed on Wednesday as they cave in to market forces.

Long ago I used to post stuff from the late Terry Laundry. Just dug this up. Way back in 2010 he was predicting a major crash/depression and "crisis opportunity" for those that still have cash in the year 2020. Well, we're almost there...and at the rate I'm going I'll have no cash to take advantage!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yo2lh3EaAms

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks Raven. I've now lost most of 2017 as well. Tough year.
If SPX doesn't pierce 2578, we're likely headed south..
It's been climbing slowly, but the algos are in no hurry to get there, which tells me they may not be going there based on the trend..
Planning to sell today..and stop the bleeding..
FS

 

[FogSailing]

The algos took it right up to 2577.50 before the reversal. If it heads south of 2550, remember to respect the trend.

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good thing to stop the bleeding. Gosh.. to think I almost broke even for the year... now down nearly -5%. Its tough to get out because of the hope that market will bounce. Well... it will eventually but I think that is months away... maybe a little bounce this week, but doubt it gets back losses from Friday and Monday. Then again...charts look very BAD.. Contemplating partial exit to stop some bleeding... but likely should exit fully. uggh …..

 

[FAAM]

Welp(ing) I'm taking my Mrk't funds to G today. I don't put as much in these days for preservation in general, but I still lost a couple percent in the last month & wiped away my measly 2018 gains. was betting on Santa coming this year and before now - nope. So I'm away for 3-weeks an no way willing to risk now. Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays and good luck to all for this year.

 

[ravensfan]

FS

I just read an article that says :U.S. stocks are on pace https//tmsnrt.rs/2A3z5ML for their biggest December decline since 1931, the depths of the Great Depression.

Just so sad to watch peoples retirement savings going down the toilet.:Flush:

 

[FogSailing]

Agreed Raven. I think this is more than a correction. A lot of folks have said were correcting between 1810 and 2941. I think we're correcting between 666 and 2951. I wouldn't be surprised to see us bottom out around 1500 over the next 3-6 months. This is a dangerous declining market. Even if we pop to 2600-2650, I think this beast is still heading down. Best to luck everyone in your trading.

 

[Scout333]

Agreed Raven. I think this is more than a correction. A lot of folks have said were correcting between 1810 and 2941. I think we're correcting between 666 and 2951. I wouldn't be surprised to see us bottom out around 1500 over the next 3-6 months. This is a dangerous declining market. Even if we pop to 2600-2650, I think this beast is still heading down. Best to luck everyone in your trading.

Hope you're wrong buddy! Best of luck to us all! Still looking towards a little green in the market reports!