FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

I may buy in on Monday. SPX did not pierce the 2712 resistance. I'm guessing little to no gain today.
Will look again on Monday.
Good Luck Out There.
FS

 

[FogSailing]

We have hit as low as 2604 I believe. The following support levels exist if we continue downward (SPX 2607, 2577, 2550 and 2478). Not saying we are going there. We could have a bounce before some further downside action is my guess. However, just to cover all bases, the lower Bollinger band actually goes even lower than 2478.

I read that there has never been a December Crash so i hope that trend continues.

Next week will be very interesting.

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

I would like to see that 2604 range tested again before a bounce. I would feel better about getting in on any upside after that happened. As the indexes stand now, any trade a person makes is pretty high risk. As the saying goes for traders (I just read it on an AF chat so am stealing it)...A little greed is fine but let's try not to be stupid.

 

[Mcqlives]

Not much of a pop but your 2607 and 2577 points are hitting.

Bands have me worried and we need to get a bounce pretty quick if we are going to avoid that December crash

 

[FogSailing]

Trying to make a smart decision on investing with the limitations set by TSP is like trying to cut butter with a baseball bat some days....today being one of those days

The market decided to pivot at around 9:30-10am PST this morning....shortly after past our IFT deadline. I plan to go in tomorrow or Wed. Hopefully, the market will now move positive

On the downside, SPX pierced 2604 so we are headed back to 2577 to 2474 at some point in the near future. I don't know whether that is in 2 minutes or 2 weeks but that's where we're headed. On the upside, we could rally as high as 2870 before it turns around, although 2815 looks more probable. Newmakers this week could be the national debt, the budget, and I think Fed Minutes. But we have a positive divergence, and because it's December, and because the big boys set a bear trap and made some big money, and because the news doesn't really matter. (except when it does)...I'm guessing we move up for the next few days at least.

Good luck!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well, yesterday I was thinking that the budget was a potential news maker...DING! I just have a hard time believing we are shutting the government down.
So that changes my calculus. Believe it or not, I was going to buy in this am and got side tracked and missed my IFT.
But no matter...2550 is now the next most probable target where the $$$$ will be made....

Four possibilities: SPX 2607 (0.618), SPX 2577 (0.707), SPX 2550 (0.786) and SPX 2478 (equal).
If it goes down tomorrow, it will likely bounce at one of those 4 support pivots..

I now see the high upside to any bounce at 2750. Ultimately, we are headed to 2350 now.

Don't know if that happens in 2 seconds or 2 months..

FS

 

[ravensfan]

FS

Just my opinion, but you may have saved yourself a little pain by getting side tracked. Your numbers, 2550 and 2478 look especially good for a starting point for a Santa Rally that takes us to 2750. Okay so low of the month comes in on 20 December, we buy in and ride the rally to the end of the year. :nuts:

Probably wishful thinking but hey it's the holiday season, right?

 

[FogSailing]

It looks like we are in a Declining Triangle which is zigzagging. I think we could see some positive movement up to 2780. But we could just as easily see a continuing decline first. Don't know what path it will take first. But this is a picture of where the market is currently...



FS

 

[FogSailing]

First, we didn't pierce 2700, so for me that's a caution flag. It may be that we are just drifting up and that may happen, and even 2800 may be a possible high, BUT..
I've decided to hold until i see 2577 or 2550..
Almost pressed the button this am but i missed todays up, and there is no guarantee it will stay that way.
What I do know is that we have a downward trend, and targets to hit on the downside.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

OK, we just pass 2675...That indicates we will exceed 2700, and up to 2800. I'm in.
Hope this works out.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

OK, we just pass 2675...That indicates we will exceed 2700, and up to 2800. I'm in.
Hope this works out.

FS

FS

Seems like you did a zigzag move in about 10 minutes...Did you get in or are you still on the sidelines??? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Raven. i went in 50% C. If we had held under 2670, I was not going to go in. The move above 2672 indicated strength to 2700 and the market was 2674 and upticking with 8 minutes left to make the IFT. I bit. I expected it to hit 2700 today but it did not. It only made it to 2685. And it retreated but still with a gain for the day. So, here's the thing. Today was either bait for the not so sophisticated like me and tomorrow we pull back to 2585, or we have a short and limited rally to 2760-2800. Under the 1st scenario, your Dec 20 time frame for a Santa rally is probable. I made a snap decision and pulled the lever. I hope I'm right wrong. But i have no clue whether this is a good decision or bad one. BUT I'll find out tomorrow. :laugh:

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

You hit on both my reluctance to get in yesterday and my rationalizations for getting in today. However my hopes aren’t quite as high as yours. I will be very happy if we hit 2730ish out of this one. Question in my mind is when is the grinch coming for us.

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks for the explanation. I was a little confused because your previous post (#1089) had me thinking you and I are on the same page. This has certainly been a rough year for most of us as evidenced by the number of folks on Autotracker in negative territory. It all seems to be driven by politics lately, whether it's the President arguing with Chuck and Nancy on funding for the border wall, China tariff worries, interest rate hikes, legal problems and on and on and on.

Anyway, good luck with your trade. I am thinking of an entry tomorrow, but it depends on what the market does in the morning.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I really love this chart...its look but not its content. I see a continued downtrend. I'm looking at the longest candle tail in December. Intraday, it was lower than the prior two months of lows. Also, the candle body is lower than the lowest October and November candle. Yikes ..I just see lower lows and lower highs. :embarrest:

So I'm not seeing a declining triangle as much as I am seeing a declining channel. Long trades are not in the cards right now. Definitely hoping for it to go up to 2780... Looks very possible, but maybe good to exit a day before it gets there to try beating the algo traders. Thinking to start reducing exposure day after we hit 2740. Best wishes FS and to everyone!!!!!!! :smile:

It looks like we are in a Declining Triangle which is zigzagging. I think we could see some positive movement up to 2780. But we could just as easily see a continuing decline first. Don't know what path it will take first. But this is a picture of where the market is currently...

View attachment 43877

FS

 

[Scout333]

The longer this drags on the harder it is to pull the trigger to get back in! Always the hardest part of any stock transaction. Getting out was easy. To make money you have to get both sides of the transaction right! Merry Christmas and Good Luck to us all!

 

[FogSailing]

Two thoughts this am as the IFT deadline approaches:

What happens with China\US on trade?
What happens at the FOMC?

At this moment, My gut says to stay in, at least thru tomorrow. 2780 is as high as i think it goes in the immediate future. More likely 2720, 2730 before a pullback.
I still see a pullback to under 2604, perhaps 2574 or 2550, just don't know the timeline.
I agree with DBA, this is not a market to be long in..

We see what happens when the clock strikes 12!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Here's a picture i don't like...
Hope this doesn't happen until later..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Oh well...in for a penny, in for a pound...
There was strong resistance at 2653 that was just pierced.
Crapola!
FS

 

[felixthecat]

Oh well...in for a penny, in for a pound...
There was strong resistance at 2653 that was just pierced.
Crapola!
FS

Feels like a bottoming process to weed weak hands in the morning...rally continues into Friday. S fund will probably pop tomorrow so still 50/50. Been here and done this before. One thing I cannot predict is exterior news like Trump. Still evaluating though as the picture is murky.