FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Just to second Show-Me's post today...please head over to tspshareholders.com website. Jim is working to organize a means to preserve our collective TSP rights and benefits (thank you Jim). Let's not go down on this issue without a fight..

I've now emailed or lettered all my federal elected representatives in my state, sent mail to NARFE and to the webmaster@tsp.com, as well as FedSmith and Mike Causey. It doesn't take very long to do this and it makes you feel like you're doing something good for all feds. Please do your part in this fight...

Don't let these guys get away with their draconian tactics without making them sweat...and who knows, maybe calmer minds can prevail and we can win the day..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I am going to play across the field today 25C, 25S, 50I, in hopes that we are starting to see the beginnings of Xmas rally. I am basing my decision on the attached chart.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

IMO, the good news reflects continued banking fears...but, so what..

The Fed is still going to cut rates, and the economic news isn't really bad..

Bush and Paulson need to step up and deliver some "happy" news to the American homwowner...then we move up..

FS

 

[nnuut]

IMO, the good news reflects continued banking fears...but, so what..

The Fed is still going to cut rates, and the economic news isn't really bad..

Bush and Paulson need to step up and deliver some "happy" news to the American homwowner...then we move up..

FS

Paulson and Bush will really play it up this afternoon, its a political thing! Anyone know what time the presentation is?:blink:

 

[mayday]

Paulson and Bush will really play it up this afternoon, its a political thing! Anyone know what time the presentation is?:blink:Around 1:40-1:45

 

[FogSailing]

The news isn't saying what time...but you're timing certainly sounds right...The news media needs time to edit everything..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

An excellent summary from Paladin a few days ago:

The recent bullishness is apparently due to the following factors:
- Two Fed officials have hinted that rates will be cut on Dec 11
- A plan is in the works to help homeowners renegotiate adjustable rate mortgages, and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was quoted as saying such a plan would be ready by the end of the year.
- Oil has dropped below $90 helping to ease inflation fears
- Strong December seasonality (especially Mon-Thu of next week)
- Also, the dollar has been higher for about 4 days in a row and is now overdue for a drop.

What's different today:

The amount of the rate cut is a question. Will Bernanke give the market a .5 and provide a positive day or a .25 and a less than stellar day?

The mortgage plan is a positive move, but the issue of lawsuits is now news.

Oil dropped again today..

Seasonality continues to be a positive factor..

Dollar continues to strengthen...

USM's are selling off slightly today. As long as they stay above 1490...I'm thinking I fund has the best chance for Monday right now..I now need to decide whether I want to change my allocation for Monday...

GL Investing All..

FS

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

I thought about the I for monday also but, I always get bit on these one day moves to the I so I'll probably keep my 50-C/50-S allocation for now.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi WS:

I'm hanging tough at current allocation thru Tuesday morning..Depending on what the Fed does, I rebalance the allocation or head to the Lily Pad..My guess is that we are all in the same boat on this one..

The Xmas season is in full gear now...malls are busy and I'm seeing lots of traffic. Can't say it's better than in the past, but it doesn't seem to be slow either..

So...employment numbers look good, a Fed rate hike on the horizon, subprime assistance is in the works, a stronger dollar, not to mention cheaper oil..hmmmm

China's effort to slow down growth tells me that China and India are having problems on the demand side...which should be good for stocks..

So..Unless subprime drops another crap-pile on us Monday..

I'm thinking Tuesday and Wednesday have to be good days..but only the WHO's in WHOVILLE really know..

FS

 

[hessian]

Hey Fog,
My understanding is that Fed Rate Cuts actually are provide benefits 4-6 months later. The Fed knows this, and whatever outcome decision is made Tues. is meant to provide "help" for later, this spring/early summer.

IMHO, most of the crisis has been tried to be pushed out until such later times, w/ more shoes to drop, next year. This is what Fed has eyes on, and what will be basis for amount of cuts this Tues.
VR

 

[FogSailing]

I hear you Hesh...but, IMHO, if the Fed provides .5% rate cut (still a reasonable probability IMO), the markets will be very happy on Tuesday and we will see GREEN late Tuesday, and if the curve isn't too steep, again on Wednesday. That is of course, if all other things remain stable (always a problem)..

I'm looking for another rally next week Hesh..

FS

 

[hessian]

I hear you Hesh...but, IMHO, if the Fed provides .5% rate cut (still a reasonable probability IMO), the markets will be very happy on Tuesday and we will see GREEN late Tuesday, and if the curve isn't too steep, again on Wednesday. That is of course, if all other things remain stable (always a problem)..

I'm looking for another rally next week Hesh..
FS

Fog, precisely my point! And, my conclusion too!
VR

 

[FogSailing]

Hesh..

Sounds like we are in VIOLENT AGREEMENT!!!!

GL Next Week...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Dang the News...

It's looking like only a .25% rate cut or no rate cut based on what Bloomberg is reporting:

"The Fed may have less room to lower borrowing costs than investors in Treasuries anticipate, potentially setting bondholders up for a fall. The expected inflation rate, which Sack says replicates what Fed officials use, reached 2.91 percent last week, the highest since 2004, when the central bank began the first of an unprecedented 17 rate increases. The measure was at 2.79 percent on Nov. 1"

The OSM's are starting on a down note...I'm thinking tomorrow may not be pretty......

FS

 

[felixthecat]

Thanks for the FED cut update. I just read the article on Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_fz9yFswePE&refer=home

Evidently, we are already seeing a trend downward in pre-market trading as Asian Markets fell on US Job Employmnent numbers being on the higher side for .5 basis rate cut. I also noticed the Dollar is falling against the YEN on now expected .25 percent rate cut expectations. Anybody know the magic forecast for Tuesday if .25 rate cut indeed happens? I may be a newbie according to my TSPtalk membership but I've been in the TSP since 1989.

 

[hessian]

Dang the News...
The OSM's are starting on a down note...I'm thinking tomorrow may not be pretty......
FS

FS, I read the article. It is interesting.
But it doesn't change my opinion or conclusion. Many reasons too numerous to list (basic premise is that problems are being pushed off -until later times - next year, w/ likely BIG shoes to drop - then. This is what Fed has its eyes on (just IMHO).

Consider we had more than >15 Fed talking heads speaking in less than 1/2 as many days!!!. Reallly think that's a coincidence? Not me, question is, what is the message they've all been telegraphing?!
VR
PS Re:OSMs/USMs just typical action, see historical, for days preceding FOMC announcements
- BUYING opportunities for me! :laugh:

 

[FogSailing]

Hesh:

Looks like earnings and home sales are going to make for a good day today..It's crazy...Asia was down and Europe up...it's really difficult to figure this market out..

I'm not certain whether to stay in tomorrow. I'm hoping that Griffin gives us a clue what he's up to..Right now I'm thinking 50 G, 50 S...but I'm still holding..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well, I'm all over the map today...so I will CP about 70%, and spread the rest..just hope the dollar doesn't strengthen too much today and that tomorrow gives us at least .25..oh, and oil doesn't buck up too much and we don't have more negative subprime news and yada yada yada..

GL All,

FS

 

[wv-girl]

Don't feel bad. I am waffling also. But I bailed to 50 g 50 f to wait and see.
gl

 

[Birchtree]

The Fed has to be thinking about that 6% productivity the best in four years certainly provides them with the flex they desire. Look for shock and awe, again. They caused these problems and now they will fix them.