FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Listening to Griffin's analogy, the Blue team has established it's position...hold the line on a rate cut..

The market hasn't tanked but is holding around 1450...it could still trend down before the day is over...I don't see any news to spark a rally today..

Lots of continuing bad news being spread about on the wires ...poor earnings, poor economic news, etc..

My good sense tells me to stay out until Monday..maybe I can buy in lower next week...or NOT...who nows...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

My good sense tells me to stay out until Monday..maybe I can buy in lower next week...or NOT...who nows...

FS

Glad I stayed out this week...I am not as optimistic about Friday as everyone...I would have called this a no-brainer just 4 months ago but the declining DOW and S&P are just declining too much.

I have no idea if we go lower or higher from here but I do know this war is hurting our nation in a major way, and the bad news in the subprime and higher oll jump isn't getting resolved in a way that's helping our economy. Thank God Uncle Ben seems to want to hold the line on further rate cuts..Where is that cheap alternative energy...can't someone come up with a fuel cell that works, cheaper biodeisel or ethanol, or more efficient solar panels for Pete's sake..Where's that American spirit I know we all still have..

With all that said, I'm hoping for a bounce on Friday so I'm jumping in 75% (35-C, 20-S, 20-I) and holding some in reserve...

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you...and my genuine thanks to all of you for your honest thoughts and helpful analysis of the market..

FS

 

[kar_crazy]

still looks to be kicking the good zookie out of me have to ride it down, G L and happy thanksgiving & G B your family

 

[FogSailing]

Same to you CC. What a weird week...no...make that a weird month...it blew the seasonaility estimates out the window...

I think we all know that we're not through this yet...feels like we're white water rafting without the paddles...and if this keeps up...without a raft..

I know someone is making a lot of money...I'm just ticked off it's not us...

If it's GREEN Tomorrow, I'm taking any profits and heading to G over the weekend..I'll try to reassess next week..

I hope for a GREEN DAY tomorrow...Good Luck CC..

FS

 

[Steadygain]

Lots of room in the cave for everyone and I would imagine a lot more are comming in. I may not have made much this week but I was spared any loss since going to G. The I Fund already is very much in the GREEN and the US Markets are expected to do fairly decent as well. At this point however it is impossible to tell because it can start with a bang and end barely making it or in the RED. Not that my thinking makes any difference - but I do think you'll reap some good profit today. My main concern is next week and the following weeks - which I think will clobber those remaining in risk.

Anyway - GL FogSailing

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks for the kind words and thoughts Steady...I couldn't agree with you more..The market is downright scary these days...I'm thinking the Lilly Pad or Frog Pond are going to be the best place to be for next week..NOW..watch those Wall Street Sharks make next week the biggest week of the year..Looks like they are playing the fear and timing against all of us in a big way..Hope you had a Great Thanksgiving Steady..Stay in touch my friend..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Congrats to all those in today...a positive day is a good thing....

Tomorrow we test whether the market can stay above 1420, or not. I'm waiting to see how that plays out. I dont' want the Fed to cut rates but I don't think that matters..

Good investing to all and to all a good profit..except those Grinches over at the TSP Board..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Following 12% for tomorrow...so 100% I Fund..

I hope the positive market flows to the Asian and European markets..

GL All,

FS

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Hey FS, Looks like a good move. I'm still 100-S but thinking about the one day move to the I fund myself. I have road this correction all the way down now looking to get some back. How's the sailing?...

 

[FogSailing]

Hi WH: Took the boat out last wekend. Took 4 days to get her out (Day 1 - pulled it to the dock and unloaded a truckload full of "stuff", Day 2 - it rained so I did NADA, Day 3 - we sailed her to the marina and got her there a dark...so , Day 4 - spent 4 hours getting her to sit right on the trailer and over to the storage area). Sorry the season's over, but glad she's out..It started snowing the day after I got her out.

Glad you've had a couple of good days..this market has been unbelievably tough..good to hear from you WH..

Later,

FS

 

[kar_crazy]

G L tomorrow we have been bittem hard but staying in and hoping to scratch back:blink: blew rearend out of race car started putting another third member together and dog gon different size bearings such as life this sport of mine keeps me broke but i love to be a drenalinn junkie, how ever you spell it need for speed bagged a buck and hoping to claim another this weekend they know i aint armed and come up and look in back window:laugh:

 

[FogSailing]

Hi CC: I've got three does and a buck living in my backyard....not to mention about 12 wild turkeys and more quail than you can count...

All in all...we get along fine...but every once in a while I think about venison and wild turkey...

...only problem is my wife would figure out something was amiss with "nature" and figure out I was responsible, or worse...call PITA and give them my name..

Oh well...glad to hear you're finally having a few good days CC..Keep those motors revvin...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Nikkei looks good at 11:35PM...come on FTSE..give me something to smile about in the morning..

Headin back to the Lily Pad tomorrow..

GL All!!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'm glad we have Griffin's excellent analysis to guide...however, I'm in G today and tomorrow..I'm guessing the next "pop" comes next Monday or Tuesday..

GL All..

FS

 

[kar_crazy]

time to play the GAME go sooners see ya Monday

 

[hessian]

Hey FogSailing,
Trying to follow your thread, was wondering if you mean a "pop" next week, as in, up, or "pop" as in sound bubbles make as they burst??

Seriously though, I haven't made out too good the last month, any help as to which way we're headed is appreciated. Lost my map and compass somewhere along the way. Not even dead reckoning as to where we're headed next. (I'm currently sittin' in the G too.)

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Hesh...

I'm guessing that we test 1490 again on Monday. Given the Fed's pre-decision to lower the interest rate, I think we break 1490...Of course, that is qualified by nothing else going awry...oil, Iraq, etc.

If Monday is up or sideways, I'm just going to watch what Foghorn, 12%, Griffin, Birch, and Nnut do...then I'll make my move...

I'm guessing the trend is up and I'll stay in through the end of the year...probably S..

GL in Making Some Dough...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Hesh:

12%'s page notes that things may NOT go higher...apparently the recession talk is now the news item of concern..give it a read..

I know these guys try to sell the fear...so stay tuned to how this plays out..it may be that the market will slide down a bit before it punches ahead again..the volatlity just doesn't want to go away..

Right now my biggest concern is about earnings being posted in January..I think that news is going to be critical to the reality of a recession..

FS

 

[hessian]

Hesh:
12%'s page notes that things may NOT go higher...apparently the recession talk is now the news item of concern..give it a read..
I know these guys try to sell the fear...so stay tuned to how this plays out..it may be that the market will slide down a bit before it punches ahead again..the volatlity just doesn't want to go away..
Right now my biggest concern is about earnings being posted in January..I think that news is going to be critical to the reality of a recession..
FS

Hi FS,
Thanks for thinking of me. Yes I'd read 12%'s article, thought it interesting too, and I thought concerns there may go beyond just fear/capitulation.
DCAs will be getting more difficult too - due to 2-trades/mo. rule (if that survives), make calling the tops and bottoms more critical!!
You are right though about keeping watch; on several factors this comming week. My biggest may be to expect some dip(s) before FOMC announcement (to maybe to buy) - but then sell the news Tues 11th or day after!!

You may find Uptrends posts interesting too, were we have some active discussions - he may not have as long experience, but seems to have some good knowledge - and suggested similar, for slightly different reasons. We've been kicking around Elliott Wave Theory there, thinking a possible final leg down may be coming yet (to complete a basic 8-part cycle) - before starting over again (then heading back up fully). So you're right, I'm gonna be watchful, watch others suggested ...and be patient. :blink:
has also been a terrific mentor, and another seeming confirmation - you might be interested to see his "p&f chart class" in "Technical Analysis" Section
VR

 

[FogSailing]

You are right on. I read those guys every day, as well as Paladin, Fundsurfer, Nnut, Birchtree, 12&. Griffin, Merlin, Spaf, etc....the list goes on and on..There are some very wise sages on this site.

GL,

FS