The Wall of Worry seems to be climbing higher...
I have been amazed at making a decision to bail within that environment just to wake up the next morning and see the market have a +2% day..you ask yourself...how could I have known...and of course, we can't because we aren't privy to the inside info..
Other days I've made my moves totally confident in my decision based on historical averages, the formation and trends on the various indices, the dollar, the 5 and 30 day patterns, dma's, RSI, Volatility Indicies, Stochastic analysis, etc...and the market tanks 2% or more...
That's where I am right now...the latest news playing is a 200B potentail writeoff rumor...So, the question is...how bad is it, and when will we know...
The demand for oil continues to grow...but once the economics of oil become a major strain on the economy...you will see the alternatives start to become true substitutes for oil...And that will be a good day...
Gold, IMO is just an indicator of concern..so, who is holding it? Not me...How about you? Must be somebodies with enough cash to make the price go up..I wonder if it's the same folks that say...control the oil price, or spew rumors of a 200B hit in the mortage markets..
The dollar continues to fall...the implications aren't what most investors think is positive for the country..
So, each day I ask myself which are facts and which is hype..
There also seems to be a different volume activity occuring in the marketplace, and the buying and timing of the shorts and longs is in transition..
So, what does one do...how do we improve our ability to time in this environment..given that we have to decide before we have all the facts..
Might as well be buying a lottery ticket...
FS