FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Well said Jeff...I usually find myself running with the herd...not always a good thing..Your assessment sure looks right for the short term, I just feel we have a further retracement coming our way...just can't shake it ..
GL to All,

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Thinking the I Fund may be the place to go for a day...anybody else thinking the same thing?

FS

 

[Corepuncher]

Thinking the I Fund may be the place to go for a day...anybody else thinking the same thing?

FS

My opinion would be no. OSM were up strong 2 days in a row. Our rally appears to be fading today, and we have housing and inflation data coming in tomorrow. My prediction is thus for some profit taking.

Now if it's just a question of which fund to be in, assuming you want to be in stocks no matter what, I fund may be a good choice, I certainly like to play the FV game with falling dollar.

 

[350zCommTech]

Thinking the I Fund may be the place to go for a day...anybody else thinking the same thing?

FS

Are you crazy? Just kidding.

If you haven't already done so, you might want to read Tom's comments.

Looking at the graph in Tom's writeup, it looks like markets hit the top of the triangle and is now headed down. If it breaks through on the downside, it could get ugly.

Besides that, the I fund is up 40 cents right now. The OSMs have been rallying for the last two days. While a sell off today will result in a -FV, tomorrow could be even nastier with another -FV.

I'm not trying to change your mind, but just giving my opinion since you asked.

Good luck.

 

[FogSailing]

Should have listened to you guys..got out yesterday morning after a small hit ..who new oil was going to go above 100...hard to catch a break these days..back to G for me..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Just wanted to say a special thanks to James, Show-Me, and Tom for all their efforts to communicate and provide leadership on addressing the actions by the FRTIB. I sent my fax to the GC there. Thanks so much for the excellent letter and tools to make it simple. I'm very happy to see the unions take a step forward.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well it's Saturday afternoon and I was supposed to be watching WSU Cougars playing basketball but those North Carolinians put a stop to that...(at least I didn't lose money) BUT...which got me thinking about how this TSP IFT limitation has changed my trading style.

I used to tend the market news continuously (watching to make sure the the CSF and I funds were following the trend line as our famous TSP Thrift Board leader would say), starting at an early 4-5am and staying tuned until I had to make my decision..I had charts of the SPX, DOW, patterns of stocks trends, market definitions, and even spreadsheets, all open and churning Internet fed data. I certainly felt in tune with the moment and the market momentum, even though my gains were just average compared to the leader board.

Nowadays, I'm lucky if I've turned the computer on before it's time to make that IFT decision...the morning news and coffee seem to have taken precedence...and this changed behavior is definitely something I, as a TSP stalwart, need to be concerned about. So, this much I can tell you, the Board's actions have changed my life...and it's not prety..Because of what's been taking place with TSP, I'm sluggish in the am, not posting daily, not watching MSNBC, or keeping up with the market critical chatter that occurs on this site. So, to all my TSP friends I ask your patience and good wishes for a full recovery. Although, the real answer is to just let me make my IFT decision on a daily basis like I used to so I can get my groove back.

Good luck all!!

FS

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

What's up Fogsailor? It's about time to get the boats in the water and ease the stock market pain with some nice sailing weather. Been sailing the Hunter all winter and today we splashed the Nacra 5.8. A little chilly but was a blast with a south wind at about 15 kts. The stock market has kicked my tail but will make some nice gains once we start a definate up trend....

 

[FogSailing]

Hi WS:

I'm sort of thinking Tom and UpTrend have it right...the market had a surge but it appears we're still involved with a falling Elliott wave...that hasn't hit bottom yet..so my exposure remains lmited for the time being.

I would like to get back in full time and will be looking for the first opportunity. I'm doing some work on the gelcoat right now, and I'm in the process of replacing some worn parts on the boat (cleats, anchor roller, and some rigging). Plan to put my boat in around May 10th right now. 15kts sounds like a kick up ggod time. Don't freeze out there...it's still quite chilly up here in the frozen north. Stay in touch WS...Talk to you soon.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Just dropping a line to let you know I'm still sitting on the sidelines. I was hoping we'd hit bottom but the when we didn't break through resistance (as I think most of us didn't expect to happen), I just decided to make another cup of tea and go back to reading again for awhile..

Things will get back on track one of these days..Good Luck All! (and again, my thanks to James, Show-Me, Tom and others who have fought the good fight with the TSP Board).

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I am a bit concerned about what my move should be. The market is up from 1270 to almost 1400. That certainly sounds like an improvement, although it has mostly been driven by oil price increases. My instinct tell me to jump in 100%. If this market is going to make any profit this year, they need to get a start before summer gets here.

However, there is this nagging little fellow on my other shoulder saying..just sit tight, this market has more retraction coming and hasn't proven itself as stable..

I know if i follow option a, option b will happen, and vice versa....I hate being in positions like this..

Still 50 stocks, 50 G...

FS

 

[kar_crazy]

good to here from you F S C&S bites at times but going to ride this train for a while ,spring in your place finally great get the boat out and enjoy,the ole pit pig turned out pretty good had ribs yesterday and pulled pork for today's lunch G L

 

[FogSailing]

Hi KC:

Good to hear from you...sounds like you and Nnut are "porkin" out..One thing is for certain, if you want good BBQ, you find it in the South and the Mid-west.

nd the variations...oh, just makes my mouth water thinking about it. We used to live in Tulsa, OK and I loved their BBQ...Once at work, we were sampling all the BBQ in Tulsa to pick the best one for my agencies 50th anniversary...So, I was a member of the STEERING COMMITTEE..

One of my favorite memories at work..

GL this week..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well, I've stayed 50 G, 50 stocks since the beginning of the year, and for the second time this year, I'm finally ahead of the G fund. My buy and hold experiment hasn't made me any big money, but it has shown me that while markets move up and move down, the longer term end result is not big increases or big losses but something closer to a draw. I still don't like playing the market this way, but I'm holding this pattern (or going all bonds) until I get a sense that market momentum is moving us back to a bull market.

My congratulations to those of you who have made a nice return this year. I feel lucky to be just above the G Fund.

Good luck to all in your investing.

FS

 

[Uptrend]

The market cna't keep this up -it's running on vapors. You can have what is called summation failure or the bullish folks all of the sudden realize that they have been wrong and the market reverses to the downside as it picks up speed. Bonds are chopping around, but I am guessing will take off soon, particularily if the dollar gains.

 

[Birchtree]

As of now the Dow is up 11% from the bottom at 11,700 on March 10th. The NYSE breadth MCSUM blew through the last summation failure with ease - it's now at +426 and the higher it goes, especially above +500, the lesser the chance of a correction taking place unless it's an intraday variety.

 

[Steadygain]

As of now the Dow is up 11% from the bottom at 11,700 on March 10th.

It would take a mightly strong stomach for anyone to sustain such great losses by the time 3/10/08 occured - and then chose to remain in to ride it out.

Yet how could anyone really argue with holding that position??

 

[Birchtree]

Folks been arguing with me about my buy and hold position strategy for over two years. If you know the internals of the market then it becomes easy to be right and sit tight. Just because the market goes down doesn't mean it's the start of a bear market - we will eventually have another bear market but it will start under different circumstances. We simply had a correction in an ongoing mega trend secular bull market - no reason to cut and run trying to save a few dollars. I let DCAing be my portfolio redeemer of my tugboat account and dividend reinvestment is the redeemer of my oceanic account. At the end of last week I was only $40K off my October peak and it's probably less today. I'm still patiently waiting on my first $100K week to tho me over the top - and I know it's coming.

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks eveyone for your excellent thinking and counsel. I'm gonna just continue to sit tight for a while longer. Tom made some excellent comments in his commentary today...and given the wild ride we've been on since March, Uptrend makes a valid point, but as we all know, those fed rate cuts are making their impact and there should still be more upside, even if stocks take a breather. Good luck all.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well TSP Talkers...

So, what's the deal...Is oil going down to 100 a barrel. Was this oil bubble only investor fueled? The DOE says we used 1.3% less in inventory than we did a year ago...so why have prices spiked...has demand in China and India been that great? Hmmmm...something smells and it doesn't smell like diesel..

Which means what...Stocks or bonds..

I feel like we are continually fed bull$%it by the markets, try to make reasoned investment decisions, only to find the information is less than factual..

What do you folks see in the tealeaves..

FS