FogSailing's Account Talk

[Reactive1]

IMO, oil will plummet very quickly and we will also see a fairly significant drop in the markets as well. Way too much speculation price-in on oil. The markets have been over-bought as well, the key being that it has all happened on very low volume, and the big boys are about ready to bring down the hammer, and soon.

 

[Gumby]

Well TSP Talkers...

So, what's the deal...Is oil going down to 100 a barrel. Was this oil bubble only investor fueled? The DOE says we used 1.3% less in inventory than we did a year ago...so why have prices spiked...has demand in China and India been that great? Hmmmm...something smells and it doesn't smell like diesel..

Which means what...Stocks or bonds..

I feel like we are continually fed bull$%it by the markets, try to make reasoned investment decisions, only to find the information is less than factual..

What do you folks see in the tealeaves..

FS

I see that something has to give. I just filled up the fuel tank in the back of my pickup to fuel up tractors. $521.34 for a little over 115 gallons....enough for 2 small tractors for a day. The same tank full 6 months ago was about $290.....and the government says that energy prices went down in April. How much will they say prices went down in May. Something smells like a crock of excrement.


I don't know how the over the road truckers are making it.
I predict massive retail and food inflation since the US dollar is worth about half what is was 11 years ago.

 

[luv2read]

see the Bear Cave thread for the answer.

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks for your thoughts fellow TSPer's..All good advice..The question is.. for the short term do we go down on panic selling, sideways, or up. Up looks like the least probable to me...but who knows...Longer term...all bets are up...but when does that kick in...probably not until oil, mortgages, a falling dolars, Elliott wave theory, etc work themselves out a bit...but I really don't know...so I'm staying my B&H strategy at this time.

FS

 

[luv2read]

check out optionman's thread. Excellent advice!

 

[FogSailing]

Well, S&P is down to 1335. According to a chart Nnut posted yesterday, the head and shoulders pattern appears to have more downside. So techncials don't look great. I'm guessing there will be a dead cat bounce (probably tomorrow) followed by another stretch down to 1270-1300. Hoping to jump back in in early July unless someone on the leader board has new insights that can convince me to hop in stocks earlier.

All the best to my friends and members on this board.

FS

 

[nnuut]

That's probably about all for that H&S, but Mr. Oil is kickin' butt right now. Watch Options EX next week, might be really interesting? And that near term SPX MA(20) crossing the MA(50) doesn't leave a good taste in my mouth. Say CPI and turn around three times!! View attachment 4054

 

[FogSailing]

July IFT

I'm still hoping that we have a bounce in July before we slide further south. I do hope the slide isn't a bad one. I think the Fed has sent the right message with no rate decrease or increases, and Saudia Arabia's increasing the amount of oil in supply will have an impact. If American's can decrease their use of oil by being more efficient, we can get help the economy and reduce inflation. IIMHO, t's really up to us to suck it up and help turn things around.

Hope you guys are making money..

FS

 

[kar_crazy]

Morning F S hope your making money or not loosing , happy 4th to you and your family hope you get to enjoy some good weather and get your sail boat out this weekend

 

[FogSailing]

Well, I took a week and went to the lake - Gotta Regatta you know..Anyhows..my decision to jump in last week isn't working out like I thought..things are getting set up (or crashing down) slower than I expected. Hope to see that short term rally soon rather than long term bleeding. I'd like to get my money back. GL to all in your investing.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Just a note. I haven't seen Griffin or Paladen on the MB for a while. I hope those guys get back on the MB. I miss their thoughts and insights.

GL

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Just noticied this one...Post #666...think I'll get this on the board and move to the next one...something about that number just doesn't sit right with me..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

All better now..#667...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Looks like a profit taking day...oh well, the big boys have to get paid. Option thinks we start to move down when we didn't rocket through resistance. Oil, gold, etc. are pricing higher this am and jobless claims were up. I waiting for 1M4U's forecast in a bit. I want to go 100 S...but I'm tentative. S is underperforming but I feel it will shoot up ..shortly (if only I could put a time on that)..

FS

 

[Guest2]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=173263&postcount=918

 

[Steadygain]

I want to go 100 S...but I'm tentative. S is underperforming but I feel it will shoot up ...

That's a move reserved for either the totally insane - or a genius with guts of steel.

Fall into a deeply meditative state and find your true self - if you are either one - go for it! :toung::laugh:

 

[FogSailing]

Steady:

If only I had followed thru on my instinct..but alas...I still in G until 1 Aug. Oh well, maybe I'll get em next time..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'll be surprised if the S&P breaks through at 1280 today. If it doesn't I expect the elevator to be heading in the "down" direction tomorrow. The bear market rallies have been exciting and short lived. Nice to be there when it happens, but timing is everything and well, my watch doesn't seem to be working right. :nuts: All the best to the MB.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

August 07 was a good month for most of the market..I think we're all waiting for another shoe to drop in the current market. All the good minds on this site certainly suggest so (except Birch of course..who sees the silver linings in all things bear..good for you Birch). I went to G and missed today's downside..finally a smart move on my part..but I really want to jump back in for August. The technicals say don't do it...I'm starting to fell like a kamikaze pilot...

FS

 

[kar_crazy]

August 07 was a good month for most of the market..I think we're all waiting for another shoe to drop in the current market. All the good minds on this site certainly suggest so (except Birch of course..who sees the silver linings in all things bear..good for you Birch). I went to G and missed today's downside..finally a smart move on my part..but I really want to jump back in for August. The technicals say don't do it...I'm starting to fell like a kamikaze pilot...

FS

just let me take this beating for now F S just keep an eye out and be ready to go back in i hope