FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Looks like a bunch of us are sitting on the Lily Pad...but a few are chancing fate and establishing mixed allocations (aka 30G, 30C 40S), while some others are going all I Fund (aka true kamikaze MB'ers).

Well Iran is doing it's part to keep oil prices high keeping the uranium enrichment issue in the forefront of the fear-mongering. And why not, big oil profits are what keeps their economy afloat, not to mention their enjoyment of twisting the knife into the fleshy parts of our western economies, and the money if allows them to send to Hezbollah. I don't expect that to end anytime soon, but I also don't expect the US to engage in any military action before the next election (unless NATO decides they must..which is a small but possible probability). So, where does that leave us..

Well, Israel is in need of new Prime Minister, so I don't see them doing anything until after September. Iran is just having a great time spin doctoring..The US has it's hands full and doesn't need another war on it's hands. The EU is always on the sidelines..and the Olympics are here which means we will fell the spirit of international peace and cooperation in August.

The more I think about it..I'm heading back in as soon as oil does it's spike and drop..
FS

 

[airlift]

I like what you are saying. Anyone have thougths on which fund will most likely outperform?

 

[FogSailing]

My biggest immediate concern is oil. I think 12% looks to have it right. The Nikkei is above it's 20 Day MA but below the 50 Day MA. However the 50 Day MA and the top Bollinger band intersect. I think there is some upside in the Asian markets, even with the strengthening dollar. No idea howmuch we'll owe Barclay's but I'm guessing there will be some upside in the Asian markets followed by a retracement down..but no idea how far down or when..my guess is late August to early September..I love speculating about this stuff..Every day is an adventure..

FS

 

[Corepuncher]

I like what you are saying. Anyone have thougths on which fund will most likely outperform?

C and S is my guess. If the dollar strengthens that will hurt I fund. Also, the overseas economies may be in worse shape than us, at least a few of them.

The S fund is somewhat immune to financials compared to the C (if I am correct). But then again, C has some energy companies in it that benefit from higher oil prices. So I like them both.

 

[airlift]

Good feedback. Thanks.

 

[kar_crazy]

love that sailing (ASPHALT) sailing:laugh:

 

[FogSailing]

GL to all that jumped in this week. I'm just not feeling it even with CP, 12%, and the other good MB minds out there making the move. The moves this week have been dramatic but as so many of you have advised, the market has it's own agenda, and I've usually found that jumping in after things have positive doesn't work out for me. So it's still G for me until I feel more LOVE..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Looking at the S&P, we have two positive weeks (look at candlesticks). Week 1 was a positive Doji and Week 2 a long candlestick. I concur with many of you that there appears to now be upward pressure on the market, but IMHO, it will be tough to break above the 200 DMA at around 1380. However, it looks like it's possible we're headed there over the next month based on the technicals. The only problem is that REALITY THING always gets in the way.::nuts:

I'm holding until Monday to see what oil does, whether the dollar continues to strengthen, and what this Russian invasion means, and whether the Olympics will take the sting out of any bad news..Until then..Still sitting on the Lily Pad..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Financials, inflation, head and shoulders patterns, rising wedges, falling wedges, wedgies..I feel so lucky to be on the Lily Pad this week..

FS

 

[luv2read]

Financials, inflation, head and shoulders patterns, rising wedges, falling wedges, wedgies..I feel so lucky to be on the Lily Pad this week..

FS

Wedgies are annoying and can be painful.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi L2R, looooooking ahead to next week , :suspicious:I think the bear market will be suffering from a very annoying wedgie :nuts:...new home sales, existing home sales, gdp, consumer confidence...I like to be optimistic...but as of this moment, let's just say I won't be making any big IFT's in C,S, or I..in the short term..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Hi again L2R...please disregard my last post..as soon as I hit the send key I reminded myself that I already know that those who control the market already know all the answers and all this information we hear is just disinformation..so given that I've come to my senses and my optimism has returned..next week should be GREEN.. Then again, wedgies can be painful..

FS

 

[luv2read]

View attachment 4500​

 

[Silverbird]

Look out, those puppets have a life of their own.

 

[FogSailing]

Not much to post today...watched Bill Mahr on Larry King Live last night...made me LOL for a good hour...

Tom's advise seems right on to me...and I just saw that oil prices are up again today...bummer...guess we all need to use our bikes even more than we are right now..I'd love it if we could all boycott the use of oil for a week and watch the glut of fuel boost supplies and drive prices down 25% or so. wouldn't that be a great message to send to the mideast and Russia. Of course doing anything brings about such positive results would require Americans to do something American, sort of like the mothers and wives did during WWII when they built planes, trains and airplanes for this country..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Come on September...I'm hoping for more selloff this week...I'm thinking those shares will be worth the investment in September...before I selloff in say...November????Oil's heading down, alternatives are moving up, financials are headed down..we're further down the declining slope than the rest of the world...is or isn't that good news???

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Good economic news today, but looks like the S&P is against resistance near 1280. I think CP has it right, and hpeflly Sept provides the opportunity to buy back in somewhere around 1240...I sure miss my IFT's because I'm definitely losing money with this restriction in place...Reaaly wish we could prove the entire IFT issue against the "3000" (makes us sound like Spartans, doesn't it) was contrived by the TSP Board to protect their buddies at Barclays, etc..GL to all..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well September is underway. I am waiting for the market to hit 1240 before I buy in. Some think we're moving up (about 29% of us), about a quarter say flat (24%), and the rest say down..contrarian view says get in but I'll just bide my time a little while longer..all to the best to the members of the MB and congrats to those of you who made money in August in stocks..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

From the Tracker, looks like most of us are happily sitting on the Lily Pad. A few brave souls are sitting in S or I.GL to you guys. Volume looks to be rising in the S wich could send the fund either way..I want to buy into S but remain concerned because both the 50 Day and 200 Day MA's were headed down. Makes me wonder when the 20 Day is going to take a turn..still waiting for 1240-1260 on the S&P before buying back in..guess it's time for an early fall sail..GL to all..

FS

 

[Guest2]

Volume looks to be rising in the S which could send the fund either way..I want to buy into S but remain concerned because both the 50 Day and 200 Day MA's were headed down. Makes me wonder when the 20 Day is going to take a turn.FS

FS, thanks for the MA info and your thoughts. I'm doing the (S) Fund
today,,,, or maybe,,,,, the (S) Fund is doing me. Anyway, thanks again
for the evaluation. Its always appreciated.