FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Hi LB. Totally agree. If we can get above 1893 (probably by tomorrow but possibly today), the chances of the rally continuing upward is good. For me, anything under 1893 TODAY is a sell. I believe this Friday is options expiration and historically if Wednesday is up, Friday is down.

To your points: I wish the TSP system was updated to provide for IFTs later in the day (3-4pm)t. A few more IFTs would be helpful, maybe 6-8 per month. Anyways...those are pipe dreams without someone to get the Boards attention and force some changes. Without it, TSP is going to lose a lot of accounts in the not too distant future because we'll all be taking our money out and investing in other ways to maximize our returns. As it is right now, they are bilking millions off of us and hurting our retirements because the system is so antiquated.

All the best to you in your investing!

FS

 

[sgtbriangreen]

Retirement on 4/30/16, how many days. Let the countdown begin!! I did for 365 days.

I cant wait for that day to come. 6 more years to retire at 20 National Guard or 12 more for active duty retirement. I dont think I can do 12 more years as a recruiter. The last 5 have been rough. When I retire, I will probably get a 0 stress job. Probably at a quick oil change place.

 

[Lakebound]

I cant wait for that day to come. 6 more years to retire at 20 National Guard or 12 more for active duty retirement. I dont think I can do 12 more years as a recruiter. The last 5 have been rough. When I retire, I will probably get a 0 stress job. Probably at a quick oil change place.

Six months ago, I caught myself in envy of the guy sweeping the McDonald's parking lot while waiting for my coffee. Life's funny like that, you work all your life trying to "be somebody" and when you get to where you think, or other people think you should be, you realize that everyone is "somebody".

And those who are somebody with less responsibility and who have the ability to work alone and in doing simply tasks are sitting on a gold mine and they don't even know it.

Management is not all that it is cracked up to be, it's actually worse.

Frank

 

[sgtbriangreen]

Six months ago, I caught myself in envy of the guy sweeping the McDonald's parking lot while waiting for my coffee. Life's funny like that, you work all your life trying to "be somebody" and when you get to where you think, or other people think you should be, you realize that everyone is "somebody".

And those who are somebody with less responsibility and who have the ability to work alone and in doing simply tasks are sitting on a gold mine and they don't even know it.

Management is not all that it is cracked up to be, it's actually worse.

Frank

Yeah, Im watching my daddy have fun now. He worked his @$$ off for 32 years as a firefighter. When he retired, he worked piddly jobs until the boss made him mad. He had the power then. Now he cuts fairways at one of the local golf courses. Works about 3 hours, 3 days a week. Since he is an employee, he gets to play for free. Get off the tractor, change shoes, grab the clubs out of his truck and play on the course he just mowed. Living the dream.

 

[Lakebound]

Yeah, Im watching my daddy have fun now. He worked his @$$ off for 32 years as a firefighter. When he retired, he worked piddly jobs until the boss made him mad. He had the power then. Now he cuts fairways at one of the local golf courses. Works about 3 hours, 3 days a week. Since he is an employee, he gets to play for free. Get off the tractor, change shoes, grab the clubs out of his truck and play on the course he just mowed. Living the dream.

Hmmmmm ..... I know a little course by the lake. Thanks for the idea! :smile:

Frank

 

[Valkyrie]

Should get one of those count down widget thingy's I guess. But to be honest, I'm really not counting down. I'll probably leave the agency some sick leave too. I guess it's my military upbringing, I just can't lay down yet.

Frank

Retirement Countdown - Countdown to Apr 30, 2016 in Virginia Beach

 

[Lakebound]

Retirement Countdown - Countdown to Apr 30, 2016 in Virginia Beach

Thank you! How nice is that!!!

Frank

 

[sgtbriangreen]

Hmmmmm ..... I know a little course by the lake. Thanks for the idea! :smile:

Frank

You're welcome. He really enjoys it. Seems like a sweet setup.

 

[Cactus]

Six months ago, I caught myself in envy of the guy sweeping the McDonald's parking lot while waiting for my coffee. Life's funny like that, you work all your life trying to "be somebody" and when you get to where you think, or other people think you should be, you realize that everyone is "somebody".

And those who are somebody with less responsibility and who have the ability to work alone and in doing simply tasks are sitting on a gold mine and they don't even know it.

Management is not all that it is cracked up to be, it's actually worse.

Frank

Reminds me of the Story of the Mexican Fisherman

An American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellowfin tuna. The American complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.

The Mexican replied, “only a little while. The American then asked why didn’t he stay out longer and catch more fish? The Mexican said he had enough to support his family’s immediate needs. The American then asked, “but what do you do with the rest of your time?”

The Mexican fisherman said, “I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siestas with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine, and play guitar with my amigos. I have a full and busy life.”

The American scoffed, “I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat. With the proceeds from the bigger boat, you could buy several boats, eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing, and distribution. You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then LA and eventually New York City, where you will run your expanding enterprise.”

The Mexican fisherman asked, “But, how long will this all take?”

To which the American replied, “15 – 20 years.”

“But what then?” Asked the Mexican.

The American laughed and said, “That’s the best part. When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions!”

“Millions – then what?”

The American said, “Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siestas with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos.”

 

[Khotso]

Six months ago, I caught myself in envy of the guy sweeping the McDonald's parking lot while waiting for my coffee. Life's funny like that, you work all your life trying to "be somebody" and when you get to where you think, or other people think you should be, you realize that everyone is "somebody".

And those who are somebody with less responsibility and who have the ability to work alone and in doing simply tasks are sitting on a gold mine and they don't even know it.

Management is not all that it is cracked up to be, it's actually worse.

Frank

No kidding! Congrats on your upcoming big R Frank. The upside is you won't even have to sweep a McDonald's parking lot if you don't want to!

 

[FogSailing]

The market had a bullish setup and failed. That is very bearish. I can tell you that I've invested quite a bit of my time since Feb 1st looking for good entry points, balancing risk/reward given my more conservative investing approach, trying to understand alternatives for the markets, and getting a handle on the markets themselves. I felt today was going to be a 2% plus up day (Yen, Dollar, Oil, and Fed). And it would have been had Yellen stayed neutral without going too hawkish or dovish. Since September, I've been burned every time I've been in and the Fed opened its mouth, except for when the rate hike was approved. So, my new policy is Fed Speak equals G or F Fund.

For the immediate future I think the USD has got the market between a rock and a hard place. If the USD strengthens, it sends oil into a tizzy. If the USD weakens, the yen strengthens and the Nikkei has nausea. Until these relationships break, it seems the only hope for the bulls is if the dollar just consolidates.

I'm thinking we are headed downward tomorrow, possibly as low as 1812-1790. I'll be joining Amoeba and Burro in the G Fund for a while. Look forward to coming back out when a reasonable opportunity presents itself in March or April.

FS

 

[burrocrat]

i was bettin on the fed rolling over.

that private corp had nothing on us in 1913, now 103 years later it owns our ass to the hilt. fingers choked around our taxpaying throat. problem is only 47% of folks pay taxes (debt service), so that is not lookin so good for the workers whose labor does pay the interest and floats the free boat, but the non-workers have more votes and that is a pretty easy vote to vote yourself more free money.

get ready for pain. i know these calculations, i know this end game well. i make loans for a living, and sometimes i have to foreclose. bankers don't never quit, and money never sleeps.

 

[tom4jean]

......Look forward to coming back out when a reasonable opportunity presents itself in March or April.

FS

sadly I have to agree, I was hoping to get in at beginning of the last 2 months and I ended up getting out again almost as soon as I was in, both times... licking my wounds but not having bled too much.

 

[Tsunami]

The market had a bullish setup and failed. That is very bearish.....

FS

I'm afraid that I have to agree at this point as well unless there's a miraculous turnaround in the futures overnight. The bulls had a perfect setup to take the S&P up into the mid- to upper 1900s over the next week or two, but there just aren't enough buyers to get it done. Looks like I'll be forced to lock in a loss on this trade tomorrow to avoid taking a beating in a wave 3 of 3 down.

 

[burrocrat]

uh oh, the forecast calls for pain.

 

[FogSailing]

Some interesting information on the market I picked up from a blog I follow:

Comment:
Following up on some of those great fundamentals…

S&P 4Q15 earnings season to-date:
370/500 reported
sales -4.18%
earns -5.65%

Markets sealed the fate that this point; we will have had 3 qtrs of declining earnings, and 4 qtrs of declining sales

Energy, if anybody is interested on that one in particular:
23/40 reported
sales -33.43%
earns -73.67%

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Just for kicks and giggles I decided to trace out the Elliott wave since SPX 2082. There are many ways to count EW so this is just my opinion. Those with much greater skill and technical expertise would likely disagree.

Assumptions:

SPX 2082 to 1812 = Wave A (270 points)
SPX 1812 to 1916 = Wave B (104 points or 38.1% retracement)
SPX 1916 to 1828 = Wave 1 or 1 of C (88 points)
SPX 1828 to 1882 = Wave 2 of 1 of C (54 points or 61.5 % retracement of Wave 1 of 1 of C)
SPX 1882 to 1829 = Wave 3 of 1 of C (53 points or 61.5% retracement of Wave 1 of 1 of C and Wave 2 =Wave 3)
Tomorrow SPX 1829 to 1862 = Wave 4 of 1 of C (33 points or 61.8% retracement of Wave 3 of 1 of C)
Next Tuesday SPX 1862 to 1791 - Wave 5 of 1 of C (88 points or Wave 1 = Wave 5)

Here's a picture. It will be interesting to see how tomorrow and next Tuesday play out. If I understand things correctly, Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1 (i.e BUT Wave 4 has the potential to be greater than 61.8 Fib retracement of Wave 3 (61.8% Fib retracement is my assumption) and 88 points would be the maximum Wave 4 could extend (or 1917) without breaking the rules). All of this assumes the count is correct. I tend to use conservative counts when playing with these things.

View attachment 37071

FS

 

[burrocrat]

so what does that mean? what is that graph trying to say? engrish prease.

 

[FogSailing]

Bottom line: Tomorrow should be an up day with a range from about 1838 to 1917 depending on what mood the market is in. If tomorrows wave (the 4th wave) retraces 61.8% (sort of an average) then 1862 will be tomorrows target. If 1862 is the number, then the 5th Wave (sounds kinda like a movie) should retrace the equivalent of Wave 1 or 88 points to 1791 on Tuesday.

All that assume the 4th wave doesn't subdivide. Bots like to subdivide waves. This makes wave counting a pain the a$$ and one of the reasons I don't do it very often.

Anyways, that's my attempt at engrish..

FS

 

[burrocrat]

Bottom line: Tomorrow should be an up day with a range from about 1838 to 1917 depending on what mood the market is in. If tomorrows wave (the 4th wave) retraces 61.8% (sort of an average) then 1862 will be tomorrows target. If 1862 is the number, then the 5th Wave (sounds kinda like a movie) should retrace the equivalent of Wave 1 or 88 points to 1791 on Tuesday.

All that assume the 4th wave doesn't subdivide. Bots like to subdivide waves. Makes wave counting a pain the a$$.

Anyways, that's my attempt at engrish..

FS

so basically that's up maybe but maybe down and then maybe down some more or else maybe up, or up some more and any of this could happen well pretty soon, maybe?

ok, i got this wave stuff down now. maybe.

is your money in or is your money out? that is more my language. i can't understand the other things.