FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Earlier I posted regarding a potential concern in the bond market, not to mention the stock market, because of a potential high default rate in energy loans. Just FYI.

Blood in the Energy Streets | Jay On The Markets

FS

 

[amoeba]

Some interesting commentary and speculation out there...many blogs are talking about a Fed deferral of future rate hikes in the foreseeable future or possibly more QE if the markets sink much further. Hard to believe but possible if things really go south. The article below identifies that the Fed's .25 rate hike has been nullified by the market and could spell long term concern for bond holders. Oil moved down a bit again but most say a nice rebound is coming soon. I'll be watching the Yen. If it moves up, SPX has a tendency to move down and vice versa. The other surprise is the VIX. It has risen but not a lot and traders seem amazingly calm in the current environment. That could change if we were to have another major leg down, but again, most bloggers are speculating a low of about 1820-1840 SPX if we were to drop. Almost all are expecting a big bounce up to 1956 soon.

Short-Term Rate Increase Neutralized | Price Action Lab Blog

Cyclical Market Analysis: $VIX - Cycle Update

Elliott Wave Analysis on S&P500 and Crude OIL | Forex Crunch

That is absolute BS! Do not believe it. The Fed will raise a MINIMUM of 2X this year and likely 4X, with a firm target north of 2% within 18 months. It is 0.25% now. The "data" used by the Fed does NOT involve stock market prices. This is coming from hopers that are losing on long bets, and counting on one more government intervention so they then can bail on the first bounce.

Now booyah Jim Cramer is calling for a significant leg down from here. I'll have to listen to that one sometime.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Amoeba. So tell me what you really think.. .

CNBC (R. Santini (sp?) I think) speculated for 2 rate increases (down from 4) in 2016 and perhaps that is the way it plays out. The Fed has been rather transparent with their announcements and proposed activities and decisions in 2015 were consistent with their announcements. I hate it when the Fed says anything, but (IMO) at least they haven't been misleading. I'm sure you are correct that there are a lot of traders in the hurt right now and that could explain their speculations. But I found it more than curious that there is this much discussion about it focused on what happens if SPX were to take a dive to 1400 or lower. Assuring adequate liquidity in the markets is the basic crux of the concerns.

I think the problem the Fed may have to address is economic. Why did the Fed defer this rate increase until December? Because they were seeking to achieve their objectives of introducing rate increases in the midst of a difficult global economy. The Fed is still in a difficult position because the economies of the US, EU, China are spurting. China's economic slowdown , the energy market, and debt are how I'd summarize the big problems; not to mention that we are concluding a 6 year bull market and bear markets have their own agendas. IMO, stabilize China and oil and the remaining market sectors appear sound at this time. Things return to "status quo" in a bear market. Debt remains the elephant in the closet.

QE 1 and 2 bring to mind the old colloquialism a "rising tide floats all boats" and its day was completed in 2014. Today we are faced with China's slowing economy which has it's own set of energy ramifications, but the glut in global oil inventories exists because of a strategic change in market policy (brought about by global powers seeking greater market share) and is going to change the markets. Especially where producers seek to undercut one another for greater marker share. This was not the market policy for oil in 2008. It will take time for these things to play out one way or another and who knows how all this is resolved. But, I don't think it is outside of the realm of possibility for the Fed to curb future interest rate hikes or for additional QE to be supported if there is too much technical damage to our economy while these other factors get resolved. I hope everything stabilizes without any further Fed action (QE), but I am open to the possibility.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

An interesting read:

The Only Charts That Matter | pebblewriter

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Another interesting read about bots...Just FYI.

The Idiots Guide to High Frequency Trading | blog maverick

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Best of luck to all today....May the rally hold through next week...

Marc to Market: Collective Sigh of Relief Ahead of the Weekend

FS

 

[FogSailing]

A little pet humor heading into Monday....

View attachment 36805

FS

 

[FogSailing]

A quick review of the TSP Funds from 2008 to 2012:

View attachment 36810

Just a look at what happened in 2008. In that year, it appears like the F Fund was most profitable place to be. Stocks were clobbered but scaled new highs in 2009 and 2010 after the bear. I Fund did a pathetic job for an annual return over the period 2008-2012.
Of course, that was then and this is now so things will be different this time around. If we were to retrace 50% SPX during this bear, we would be in the 1200-1100 range. So what we've seen so far is really just phase 1.
Be safe out there my friends!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I saw this picture of RUT posted by an analyst yesterday. It certainly looks like the current bottom might be in, or close to being in. Then this morning I wake up to find oil down $2, a falling dollar, and gold ready to rally. Lets you realize how hard it is to rely on just one graph or one scenario in making a market decision when there are always so many variables in play. Hoping to see a rally today for all who are in. Best of luck this week.

View attachment 36813

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I recently read this very wise verse from an ancient Chinese wiseman:

Well this makes sense.

When an archer is shooting for nothing . . . he has all his skill.
If he shoots for a brass buckle . . . he is already nervous.
If he shoots for a prize of gold . . . he goes blind;
or sees two targets . . . he is out of his mind!
His skill has not changed. But the prize . . . divides him. He cares.
He thinks more of winning than of shooting . . .
and the need to win drains him of power.
– Chuang Tzu, 400 B.C..

My interpretation: Chang Tzu understood my trading strategy and my golf game better than I do...

FS

 

[ravensfan]

I recently read this very wise verse from an ancient Chinese wiseman:

Well this makes sense.

When an archer is shooting for nothing . . . he has all his skill.
If he shoots for a brass buckle . . . he is already nervous.
If he shoots for a prize of gold . . . he goes blind;
or sees two targets . . . he is out of his mind!
His skill has not changed. But the prize . . . divides him. He cares.
He thinks more of winning than of shooting . . .
and the need to win drains him of power.
– Chuang Tzu, 400 B.C..

My interpretation: Chang Tzu understood my trading strategy and my golf game better than I do...

FS

Well that explains why I was much better on an archery range than I was up in a tree stand...:thinking:

 

[FogSailing]

Today's rally is great but be aware that Gold is doing a turnaround at the same time...

View attachment 36823

Best of luck out there today!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Hmmmmm.... Just looked at the Tracker...Here's something you don't see very often... a consensus of the TSP Top 50...

View attachment 36836

FS

 

[TSP-roulette]

Astounding; the 2016 returns as shown in your thread are not what perhaps we expected. In contrast to last years, the 1.08% returns this far into January, never seen anything like it that I am aware of. Seeing the tracker with so many in the G and F funds it's quite remarkable with good reason. How long will this Bear keep pestering the hell out of us?, who knows. In the meantime, all together now:

 

[FogSailing]

Thinking a lot about tomorrow and a plan of action for February.

The action this week still feels like consolidation. The bulls try to break out but these rallies have all been nicely contained so far right at the 1900 SPX region. It indicates this market doesn't have any gas in the tank this week. With gas so cheap, someone please fill up the engine. Still, feels like something is up. That makes me both nervous and anxious. Best thing to do is step away but I doubt that's what I do come Monday.

Here are a few tidbits I picked up today from the blogs I follow:

Negative Possibilities:

Commenter XXX, on yesterday’s update, observed a bear flag over the last day and a half, at the tail end of a larger bear flag that’s been going on for the last month. If this plays out, then maybe we’re looking at a breakdown starting at let’s say 1900 going the length of the flagpole down (from 2,080 to 1,812, which is 268 points), so technical target of 1,632…IF you believe in bear flags. My Comment: No real timeframe associated with this comment. We've been dancing all around 1900 all week long.

We have BOJ meeting in focus, plus Q4 GDP which won’t help imo… AMZN is weighing on the market right now.

Positive Potential:

It seems to me that both SPX and NAS100 are trading in pennants. Also interesting from today, risk currencies (AUD, GBP) completing short term bottoms, oil completing a ST bottom also, potentially pointing to $37-40 target, DXY on the verge of breaking down from a bear flag, EEM forming a ST bottom also. JPY formed a ST bottom, BOJ tonite can propel it >120. These are all risk/ bear bounce supporting developments. MY COMMENT: No timeline associated with this comment except for the BOJ comment.

It Depends Possibilities:

US equities closed moderately mixed, spx +10pts @ 1893 (intra low 1873). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for a Friday or Monday close >1900, and that will confirm the 1940/70 zone will be hit in first half of February.

If we go lower than 1860, look down below.

Best of Luck to all in your investing!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

A few thoughts tonight before tomorrow's action:

1. I like the positive potential scenario I discussed yesterday because if the market retraces to 1880-1900, we have an inverted H&S pattern, and numerous bottoming patterns in other indices which supports the potential for a BIG BOUNCE up to 2000 or higher.

2. BUT, ask yourself if the BOJ cut is really a significant enough event to continue to move the market upward? Once everyone settles down and realizes that the global economy stinks and it was done as another Band-Aid, things can go south quickly. I still see debt\credit issues coming to the forefront soon, and because TRANS continues to fall, I don't have that warm and fuzzy feeling.

My guess is that whether tomorrow or Tues\Wed; the market will begin to retrace to either 1980-1900 or to the 1868 pivot. I we fall below the 1868 pivot, look out below.

I wanted to jump in tomorrow but the conditions still fell like a set-up to me.

Best of Luck moving into Monday.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

A graph looking outward to July 16 from 2011 low. Just FYI. It would appear like we require some intensive sideways action to build up enough thrust to jump to the 2000 region which is quite possible. However, a move to the downside looks more plausible based on this picture. It can all change in a New York Minute though...As the world turns...

View attachment 36905

FS

 

[FogSailing]

So my question to myself this evening is are we going down a little or a lot the next 2 days. I know. I sound like a bear. Believe me I not. I am a simple concerned retiree. Here's what I don't like about where we are: where the VIX is right now, the momentum down today, we are at the neck of a completed H&S pattern. Also, I don't like a picture I saw today on a website of another analyst as follows:

View attachment 36930

Then there is this from another analyst I think has good skills on Elliott Wave and TA:

For the last 2 weeks, I’ve been mentioning the potential bullish setup from the weekly candlesticks. After today, though, I think you can completely throw those candlesticks out the window. In fact, the previous three weeks, plus this week, look like they’re going to be a carbon copy of the first 4 weekly bars of July 2015. I couldn’t be more bearish. When I first put on my current short position at 2063 on 12/17, I said that I thought it would be worth a 300 point gain. Now, though, I think it’s going to be worth a lot more than that, and here’s why:
1. 1947 was a 50% retracement of 2082-1812
2. 2082-1812 was not a 5 wave move. It was a 3 wave move. (double zig-zag)
3. That means from 2082, we’ve now completed A down and B up. C will equal A at 1677.
4. Obviously there should be a cluster of support in the 1730-1750 range, but it looks to me as if the market is going to work it’s way through that and go to at least 1677 before any kind of major bounce occurs.
5. Of course, I might be premature in this assessment, but as of now, I see 1947-1909 as wave 1, and the rest of the day as a running wave 2. If this is correct, then if you thought today was ugly, just wait until we start wave 3.

If stocks are crashing the bond market should be up right? So if tomorrow looks like the beginning of a major pullback I plan to head to F until we establish a new bottom. Now that the BOTs have read this, we'll rally to new highs tomorrow.

Best of Luck to you in your investing.

FS

 

[burrocrat]

oh yes! i am liking the new 'd' projection! hopefully before the end of february so i don't have to waste a march ift catching the falling knife. bring it.

please mark this chart and revisit to see where we end up in a couple weeks.

So my question to myself this evening is are we going down a little or a lot the next 2 days. I know. I sound like a bear. Believe me I not. I am a simple concerned retiree. Here's what I don't like about where we are: where the VIX is right now, the momentum down today, we are at the neck of a completed H&S pattern. Also, I don't like a picture I saw today on a website of another analyst as follows:

View attachment 36930

Then there is this from another analyst I think has good skills on Elliott Wave and TA:

For the last 2 weeks, I’ve been mentioning the potential bullish setup from the weekly candlesticks. After today, though, I think you can completely throw those candlesticks out the window. In fact, the previous three weeks, plus this week, look like they’re going to be a carbon copy of the first 4 weekly bars of July 2015. I couldn’t be more bearish. When I first put on my current short position at 2063 on 12/17, I said that I thought it would be worth a 300 point gain. Now, though, I think it’s going to be worth a lot more than that, and here’s why:
1. 1947 was a 50% retracement of 2082-1812
2. 2082-1812 was not a 5 wave move. It was a 3 wave move. (double zig-zag)
3. That means from 2082, we’ve now completed A down and B up. C will equal A at 1677.
4. Obviously there should be a cluster of support in the 1730-1750 range, but it looks to me as if the market is going to work it’s way through that and go to at least 1677 before any kind of major bounce occurs.
5. Of course, I might be premature in this assessment, but as of now, I see 1947-1909 as wave 1, and the rest of the day as a running wave 2. If this is correct, then if you thought today was ugly, just wait until we start wave 3.

If stocks are crashing the bond market should be up right? So if tomorrow looks like the beginning of a major pullback I plan to head to F until we establish a new bottom. Now that the BOTs have read this, we'll rally to new highs tomorrow.

Best of Luck to you in your investing.

FS

 

[amoeba]

So my question to myself this evening is are we going down a little or a lot the next 2 days. ...If stocks are crashing the bond market should be up right? So if tomorrow looks like the beginning of a major pullback I plan to head to F until we establish a new bottom. Now that the BOTs have read this, we'll rally to new highs tomorrow.

Best of Luck to you in your investing.

FS

1. What's a "BOT"? a botfly? the bank of Thailand? some computer virus that's reading this forum? I honestly don't know.

2. answer: Not necessarily. The major factors are the "safe haven" phenomenon; the other opposing factor are interest rates; thus far, the former has outweighed the latter, including today. However, this may or may not change after one of the most-watched jobs numbers in quite awhile is announced this Friday. If it kills the speculation that the FED may pause despite its blaring repeated announcements of more hikes this year (including the most recent minutes just last week), the market could become quite unpredictable, and everything could go down together. That said, you're not alone in your thinking (just look at the top page of the autotracker).