FogSailing's Account Talk

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I agree Amoeba. While it appears oil prices are very low, if Iran starts pumping and exporting, Saudia matches and increases production as does Russia...all I see is a glut until they figure out how to work together. Of course, if Russia bombs ISIS oilfields or accidently hits Turkey, or a Yemini missle hits a Saudia Arabian oilfield, or better yet, a breakthrough in technology makes oil no longer the key player (there is some serious research being performed on other energy alternatives), things will begin to change...but all those are fru-fru hypotheticals. Right now, I see oil prices decreasing at least for several months into the future. So, while the bull market is still alive, oil's situation isn't allowing the market to buoy to new highs, at least not yet. Not only that but some of the big guys like Apple are holding the SPX up. If it has a bad day, everyone catches cold. However, I do think we will likely see a new ATH before we have a massive correction.

This week I expect a leg up for the markets, perhaps as high as 2082 followed by a pullback to perhaps as low as 1920 (some more bearish say 1870). If it were to fall lower than 1900, we are probably in a Bear market. If it stays above 1950-1920, I see it moving up as high as 2145 in a 5 impulse wave up. I have no idea how long that 5 wave will take to get there. Once completed this bull market is likely over. Then we play the corrective rallies for the next 18 months to 2 years and we must be very very careful.

Without the ability to place STOPS on our IFTs we are simply at the mercy of a NON warm and friendly market.

All the best in 2016.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
An interesting read about gold, and international intrigue. It includes a host of shady characters and makes you wonder if law enforcement and intelligence services know about this stuff, or if they are just ostriches with our heads in the sand. It would make a great movie about how the bad guys are winning.

On The Trail Of Dubai's Stolen Gold: A Robbed Client Breaks The Silence, And A Fascinating Detail Emerges | Zero Hedge

FS
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interesting article there fs. that is why i will never buy paper gold or own gold stored in some warehouse. i don't really have that problem though because i can't afford gold.

but the same rules apply to silver. except i can't even hold on to physical silver either. i used to have over two pounds of tsptalk silver but i chopped some into pieces to make sure it was real. i used about half to pay a debt. i gave a bunch of coins away. now i have less than a pound. oh well, easy come easy go. at least i enjoyed it and every ounce was worth the pleasure or goods it brought me.

life is a strange thing. i am glad i am not nor ever will be rich.
 
"But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal"
 
Lakebound said:
"But lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through nor steal"
Click to expand...

oh thank god, because i'm barely going to fit through that eye of the needle thing, don't need a pocket full of gold hangin me up.
 
I hear you Burro. BTW...that was a nice Excel spreadsheet you put together on earnings, I hope you put that somewhere on the Forum in Tools area. I know I'd enjoy having a better way to manage returns.

I finished negative for the year...about 3% negative. First time that's happened since 2008 when I lost 24% as a buy and holder....that was months after I retired...Dude, that was one bummer period of my life. Saved for 20 years and lost a quarter of that so fast I didn't even see it being flushed down the drain. I remember the "wonder" of a buy and hold world before the big melt down.

As for being rich, I think guys like us are rich because... I'm retired, I have a wonderful wife of 42 years (Swedish Shield Maiden), a great son, and a fun loving Polish\Swedish family, on and on...I like money but only for its utility value.

So today, I'm happy to just percolate along and make a few sheckles here and there. I've always done this on my own and have discovered I actually have developed my own methods over the years. The problem is there isn't enough time to check all the checks that need checking...so I do the best I can with indicators. I was doing fine until November and December when the bull in me was gutted by a market that "beared" it's fangs...and to have the volatility during the holidays...sheesh. In the past, I would have stayed out of the market but this year I decided to experiment and see how much tenacity I had to stay in. I did fine and could have stayed in longer but there is a point where you have to allow your intelligence to overcome stubbornness. The stubborn part wanted to stay in because it hates to lose money...oh well..

Best of You to Burro and the Arkers as we head into 2016!! That quite an interesting crew you have there...:D:D:D

FS
 
burrocrat said:
interesting article there fs. that is why i will never buy paper gold or own gold stored in some warehouse. i don't really have that problem though because i can't afford gold.

but the same rules apply to silver. except i can't even hold on to physical silver either. i used to have over two pounds of tsptalk silver but i chopped some into pieces to make sure it was real. i used about half to pay a debt. i gave a bunch of coins away. now i have less than a pound. oh well, easy come easy go. at least i enjoyed it and every ounce was worth the pleasure or goods it brought me.

life is a strange thing. i am glad i am not nor ever will be rich.
Click to expand...


I never wanted to be rich, just comfortable! I have done that, but things can change we can be robbed by the government and it's happening every day!
 
FS - Wrapping up a fun weekend in your fair city this evening, capped off by the surprisingly easy win by the Hawks over Phoenix. I wonder if the Cardinals were just holding out for the playoffs, just like Green Bay appears to be doing this evening. We were down low on the 47-yard line, and there were more Hawk fans than Arizona fans in our section....great time! (for Seahawk fans anyway)

Futures are down, not a good start to 2016.

Thought this study was interesting, apparently most people don't pay attention to the 4% rule once they start withdrawing....

https://www.ebri.org/pdf/notespdf/Notes.May13.IRAs.Final.pdf
 
In my case yer right, I'm taking around 8% but I can make it up playing the Market,HA HA!
 
Well...just had my coffee and reading the news:

Wall Street finds comfort in China trade data - Yahoo Finance

It used to be that when I read good news I would smile and feel comfortable that the markets were going to make a little money for me. I don't have the same feeling anymore. As soon as I see good news I feel like I'm being set up for a big down. So much has changed since the 2008-2009 meltdown.

Trying to decide whether to stay in or bail. The bulls and the bears both say they are right (bulls say a drop to 1901 then up to 2020-2040, the bears say a drop to a new low first before the bounce). Either way, both are saying down or sideways before up so I'm conflicted with only one IFT left for the month. Must decide by 10am.

All the best to each of you in 2016. I think I should change my 2016 motto to "Shoot a bear, ride a bull!"

FS
 
This is a comment from a solid analyst with 30 years of market experience I follow. Just FYI for your consideration if you are thinking of jumping in right now.

"SPX did 5 waves down from yesterday’s high to this morning’s low. It’s now doing a corrective move higher. The overall trend is still down. I am almost convinced now with today’s drop that this is the long drawn out C wave of Primary 4. In my opinion, it’s too deep to be a major 4 of P3 or major 2 of P5 which are the major alternate counts of other EW sites …IF the market goes below the Aug lows. That would be a 15%+ correction, which is right in line with the 2011 P2 correction. I’m looking forward to a P5 rally once this P4 is done and then preparing for a blood bath once P5 is done."

I am taking that as we have some further downside before the bottom of P4, perhaps to SPX 1750 which equates to $25 a barrel oil. No idea what happens to get us there. Maybe China concerns or the Fed? Iran is a known so it must already be priced in. So my guess is that anywhere from 1867 to 1750 is probably the likely area for a market turnaround.

Again just some fodder.

FS
 
Just playing around at home.. Decided to look at SPX...Just my opinion...Toss at your leisure.. :D:D:D

I could be very wrong, the trend is down and could continue down to 1841-1820 before the bounce but I hope not for those that are in. We'll find out Tuesday...

View attachment 36714

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Just playing around at home.. Decided to look at SPX...Just my opinion...Toss at your leisure.. :D:D:D

I could be very wrong, the trend is down and could continue down to 1841-1820 before the bounce but I hope not for those that are in. We'll find out Tuesday...

View attachment 36714

FS
Click to expand...

FogSailing,

I hope we get a break from the nasty downside soon. Is there any sign of events or news that might spark expectations of a reversal from here? Anyone? Thanks.
 
Biggest thing I am aware of (besides oil and not considering terrorism or war), is China. They have too much production capacity and a lot of private financed debt. If their GDP number is lower, expect further pullback. On the other hand, that means that they are likely paying down their huge private financed debt which is good. But who knows what that means to their currency and whether they have a strategic move up their sleeve to further devalue the yuan.

Just my 2 cents..

FS
 
Final post for the day....time to go for a walk..

I saw this comparison of between SPX and RUT. Small caps have definitely taken it on the chin during this downturn more than big caps. So, it seems more probable that they are due for a larger bounce in the near future. Of more interest is that the picture shows that S continued to trend downward below the neck and shoulder and SPX hasn't trended that low yet. If the major support lines of the neck and shoulders is broken, it could mean a tougher time for SPX on Tuesday.

Even more intriguing to me is figuring out where we really are in the EW count. Some really smart guys are not in agreement. One says Primary Wave 5, Major 5 terminated incorrectly (now in bear market), another says Primary Wave 3 Major Wave C correction still going (bull market), and another says Primary Wave 4, Major Wave C correction which is one I have been leaning towards (which would mean we still have P5 to go, hence would still be in a bull market), and one says the bull market ended at SPX 2134 back last May and everything since then has been corrective. All I know is that this doesn't feel like any bull market I am familiar with and very difficult to get a sense on how this will play out.

View attachment 36717

PS Burro....I'll start slow..:D

FS
 
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Some interesting commentary and speculation out there...many blogs are talking about a Fed deferral of future rate hikes in the foreseeable future or possibly more QE if the markets sink much further. Hard to believe but possible if things really go south. The article below identifies that the Fed's .25 rate hike has been nullified by the market and could spell long term concern for bond holders. Oil moved down a bit again but most say a nice rebound is coming soon. I'll be watching the Yen. If it moves up, SPX has a tendency to move down and vice versa. The other surprise is the VIX. It has risen but not a lot and traders seem amazingly calm in the current environment. That could change if we were to have another major leg down, but again, most bloggers are speculating a low of about 1820-1840 SPX if we were to drop. Almost all are expecting a big bounce up to 1956 soon.

Short-Term Rate Increase Neutralized | Price Action Lab Blog

Cyclical Market Analysis: $VIX - Cycle Update

Elliott Wave Analysis on S&P500 and Crude OIL | Forex Crunch
 
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