FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

You have to love statistics...If the 1st of December is positive, the market is up 93% of the time based on this table..

View attachment 36143

FS

 

[userque]

You have to love statistics...If the 1st of December is positive, the market is up 93% of the time based on this table..

FS

I've read an analysis on this type of statistic. It basically states that if you wait until after the 1st to trade based on what the 1st did, you'll affect the returns--because the returns they quote include the 1st. :blink:

But you can't trade on the 1st if your trade is based on what happens on the 1st.

They should be giving you the returns starting from the 2nd, after you've had a chance to see what happens on the 1st, but they don't.

If they did, I suspect you'll find there's not much of a tradable correlation--I believe that's what the write up I'm remembering concluded.

It also stated the same thing for "as January goes, so does the year." (You have to wait until after January to see how it goes; but the statistics they quote include the January figures.)

Buyer beware.

 

[FogSailing]

Darn Q: I think you bursted my Santa bubble....oh well fun while it lasted. Guess it only goes to show that statistics can be easily manipulated...wish they'd mentioned that in the graph legend.

Still have my hopes up for a 2-4%% December..

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Tia...My mistake...The FOMC meeting begins on Dec 15 with minutes on Wednesday, Dec 16th. I wasn't focusing on the dates last night when I wrote that...in other words...NEVER MIND...

FS

Hi FS... But your still partly right. There is a meeting this afternoon that Yellin will speak at. Then she talks again tomorrow morning giving testimony before Congress. Then Dec 15/16 FOMC and the decision on interest rates. I read she most likely would not say anything to change anything up this afternoon or tomorrow, but who knows. Every word will be dissected and taken in by the market.

Then OPEC meets on Friday but supposedly Saudi Arabia will not go with any change to production so that seems moot. Also, since crude is tracking down a bit, might mean more downside to market if it doesn't go up. Then the big one is the jobs report on Friday. If its not good, then that might mean no rate hike..... but who knows. It's crazy.....

Best wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. Also heard this morning that the GDP numbers were revised down. I should think that will affect market. it was dropped down below 2. Humm.....

 

[FogSailing]

Hi DBA. On Friday, EU Banker Draghi makes a statement whether to continue QE in the EU. That could also be a market changer.

Best wishes to all in your investments.

FS

 

[airlift]

Hi DBA. On Friday, EU Banker Draghi makes a statement whether to continue QE in the EU. That could also be a market changer.

Best wishes to all in your investments.

FS

FogSailing, does someone want to speculate on what will be the effect of Draghi's statements on the stockmarket, one way or the other? Tia.

 

[FogSailing]

FogSailing, does someone want to speculate on what will be the effect of Draghi's statements on the stockmarket, one way or the other? Tia.

Hi Airlift. Here are a few thoughts: If the ECB increases EQE, it likely tanks the Euro, the Dollar will rally which should send oil down to at least the Aug lows ($37.75) and probably lower in the near future (Brent has already broken its Aug lows). If this occurs, I don’t see how stocks will likely fall below SPX 2,070. That said, if no increase in EQE tomorrow, then the trend could reverse.

We should know very soon on whether oil, and therefore stocks, will hold this area or not. ECB tomorrow, OPEC meeting Friday. Expectations are for increased EQE and no production cuts from OPEC – both bearish for oil.

Of course, the terrorist attack today certainly doesn't help things either. I'd sell if I could get out today, but can't get out until tomorrow so I guess those of us invested are in for a wild ride. Things change so fast...no telling what tomorrow may bring. The SPX was quite oversold so I'm hoping dip buyers get in tomorrow but the news will likely dominate the day.

FS

 

[airlift]

Hi Airlift. Here are a few thoughts: If the ECB increases EQE, it likely tanks the Euro, the Dollar will rally which should send oil down to at least the Aug lows ($37.75) and probably lower in the near future (Brent has already broken its Aug lows). If this occurs, I don’t see how stocks will likely fall below SPX 2,070. That said, if no increase in EQE tomorrow, then the trend could reverse.

We should know very soon on whether oil, and therefore stocks, will hold this area or not. ECB tomorrow, OPEC meeting Friday. Expectations are for increased EQE and no production cuts from OPEC – both bearish for oil.

Of course, the terrorist attack today certainly doesn't help things either. I'd sell if I could get out today, but can't get out until tomorrow so I guess those of us invested are in for a wild ride. Things change so fast...no telling what tomorrow may bring. The SPX was quite oversold so I'm hoping dip buyers get in tomorrow but the news will likely dominate the day.

FS

FogSailing, I like your post and hope the SPX doesn't keep going down below 2070. Crossed fingers!...

 

[FogSailing]

Hi DBA. On Friday, EU Banker Draghi makes a statement whether to continue QE in the EU. That could also be a market changer.

Best wishes to all in your investments.

FS

Well ECB didn't provide as sizeable a EQE as expected by the markets (amazing how these guys keep us on our toes) and as expected, markets are pulling back. Here's hoping that we bounce at support.

View attachment 36151

Come on in dip buyers...the waters great!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I found these on another website over the weekend and wanted to share. Just information but what looks like good analysis:

View attachment 36197View attachment 36198View attachment 36199

FS

 

[FogSailing]

My question right now is "Does oil tank further?" It is almost at it's August lows so does it bounce or go lower? I should have seen this. I've been following oil and knew the OPEC meetings were going to have repercussions.

FS

 

[Whipsaw]

So other than eating a couple of percent the other day, I may be well positioned going forward...

 

[FogSailing]

WS: Took a gamble and now wishing I had sold on Friday. If SPX breaks below 2070, we're headed further south perhaps as low as 2010 in the near term. R2000 went south through support like sliced butter. It is losing twice as much as SPX and only gaining half as much. Time to change gears.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

My question right now is "Does oil tank further?" It is almost at it's August lows so does it bounce or go lower? I should have seen this. I've been following oil and knew the OPEC meetings were going to have repercussions.

FS

Was really hoping this week would pick up where Friday left off, but damn the luck. S Fund has already given back all the gains from Friday. So now the question is do we run to the G Fund or ride it out? I hate locking in a loss and if I ever get out of this mess...well never mind. There's blood (oil) in the streets today so I gotta stand pat...

Hopefully I won't regret it... ~:worried:

 

[FogSailing]

Raven: I thinking the same thing. My emotions say bail...but my fortitude says stick it out. I'm leaning towards finding my stiff upper lip... but what a pain. Where the h$!! is Santa?

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi FS!
On Friday, Liz Clamen spoke with Elliott Warren of GFI group. She reported that at OPEC meeting, Iran stated they would be increasing production up another $1M barrels (presumably per day). Mr. Warren stated this would cause oil prices to drop further, short term (Monday) up to $42 (because there are always some who don't hear the news-guess he was off on that), but he sees it then going down to about $33 per barrel in near future, and possibly lower from there...Friday it dropped 2.51% during regular session to $40.05. Liz reported that Goldman Sachs estimated oil would drop to $20!!!

Not sure how long that will take to happen... Their predictions. Yep that would negatively impact markets.

Best wishes to you on your investments!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. Im still hanging in but just bearly...i kinda expected a downturn today...but was hoping it would not be this severe. Will see how the day ends. Thinking to exit mid-week, lick my wounds and start over...AFTER the Fed meeting next Wednesday.

My question right now is "Does oil tank further?" It is almost at it's August lows so does it bounce or go lower? I should have seen this. I've been following oil and knew the OPEC meetings were going to have repercussions.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks DBA. That info is similar to other posts I follow on other websites. I almost listened to my "inner trader" on Friday. One of these days maybe I'll learn.

Best of luck to all of us who are still in.

FS

 

[Lakebound]

Hi FS!
On Friday, Liz Clamen spoke with Elliott Warren of GFI group. She reported that at OPEC meeting, Iran stated they would be increasing production up another $1M barrels (presumably per day). Mr. Warren stated this would cause oil prices to drop further, short term (Monday) up to $42 (because there are always some who don't hear the news-guess he was off on that), but he sees it then going down to about $33 per barrel in near future, and possibly lower from there...Friday it dropped 2.51% during regular session to $40.05. Liz reported that Goldman Sachs estimated oil would drop to $20!!!

Not sure how long that will take to happen... Their predictions. Yep that would negatively impact markets.

Best wishes to you on your investments!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. Im still hanging in but just bearly...i kinda expected a downturn today...but was hoping it would not be this severe. Will see how the day ends. Thinking to exit mid-week, lick my wounds and start over...AFTER the Fed meeting next Wednesday.

Sounds like a great opportunity to diversify and buy gasoline pre-paid. And then when oil rebounds up near $100 again, sell those markers for some coin.

Frank

 

[FogSailing]

Wish I had a 50,000 gallon tank on my property. I'll be filling that baby up for resale about 2-3 year s down the road..

FS

 

[Whipsaw]

Wish I had a 50,000 gallon tank on my property. I'll be filling that baby up for resale about 2-3 year s down the road..

FS

You'd need a quite few gallons of Stabil to do that! Otherwise you might have allot of smelly varnish. :nuts: