FogSailing's Account Talk

[Wiff007]

Ain't 4pm yet(easy does it Janet) but I 'forgot' to get out yesterday and (so far) I'm enjoying today's 'ride' . (Better lucky than good as they say.) Then I'm off to the F or G fund COB today to await Santa in Dec. :smile:

Lol I'm thinking of getting out with an Ift transfer tomorrow figure will be close to those highs

 

[FogSailing]

Mr Market did it to me again. I expected the pullback first, then the charge to 2070 BUT NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO....

Mr. Market decided to give us the headfake and then just tore through that old resistance at 2070 and make it support....

If he heads to 2100 tomorrow, I only have myself to blame for my decision to head to safety.

Raven , best of luck to you tomorrow if you're still in.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Watching Elliott Wave gurus discuss this coming week was very interesting over the weekend. The overall thinking is that we in a 5th wave (though there are those that see it differently); as well as those who disagree where we are in the 5th wave. All that said, most EW's were bullish on where we are and where we are headed in the midterm (note however there were a number of perma-bears also attending the party which is always good for comparative purposes). The discussion regarding this week was a bit of a lesson for me because I could see from their discussion how interim, minor and other waves form out of a major impulse wave (so I enjoyed seeing EW alternatives scenarios in action). This week: the question will be "Are we moving to all new highs through completing three more interim waves up, or does the 5 wave (intermin wave 3) subdivide (into minor waves) if we go down. I was leaning towards up in the short term and jumping in 100% today but may be waiting until tomorrow because of this article.

I am guessing today will be a down day based on oil: Epic oil glut sparks super tanker 'traffic jams' at sea - Nov. 22, 2015

I really don't understand the overall implications of this but when oil is down it isn't good for SPX. My gut is telling me the glut issue could be significant.

Best to all of you in your investing.

FS

 

[burrocrat]

I am guessing today will be a down day based on oil: Epic oil glut sparks super tanker 'traffic jams' at sea - Nov. 22, 2015

I really don't understand the overall implications of this but when oil is down it isn't good for SPX. My gut is telling me the glut issue could be significant.

if today is down then today is the day to get in. buy low, sell high. if you wait until confirmation of the rocks, you are already beached.

 

[Whipsaw]

if today is down then today is the day to get in. buy low, sell high. if you wait until confirmation of the rocks, you are already beached.

Hindsight being 20-20, the 13th was the most recent down day, I was lucky enough to throw in my last 20% after buying high in late Oct; so... a few days confirmation of a short term bottom at this point?

 

[ravensfan]

FS

Keep in mind that the EW Guru's as well as most of the business news folks throw things out there to ensure you keep coming back for more. Better to trust good technical analysis than react to the news. It cost me dearly back in August when everyone was saying we're going down 20% and into a bear market. It was a hard lesson to learn...

 

[FogSailing]

Well the oil issue did impact SPX today but it was "bear-ly" negative. Sorry couldn't resist. It seems to me that if this is any kind of real issue that it would have impacted SPX in a larger way. SPX made it to 2095 before it retreated to 2081 and then settled at 2087.

So, does SPX consolidate more tomorrow or not? I was looking at other sentiment surveys and they are quite bearish this week which surprised me especially given the historical data. Interestingly, I guess lower oil was good news for DWCPF because they had a green day.

Here's a picture of the 5 Day SPX. I'm guessing any moves tomorrow will somewhat constrained and we see more sideways action. It could be a little up or a little down but I think it continues sideways.

Best of luck to all in your investing.

View attachment 36039

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Very nice chart FS! Thank you!

 

[FogSailing]

Lol I'm thinking of getting out with an Ift transfer tomorrow figure will be close to those highs

So, does SPX move above 2097 tomorrow or pullback into the 2070 area. If it pulls back the bull market has more room to run. If it doesn't the margins for a rally shrink. Resistance is 2131 and 2145. After that I've heard numbers ranging from 2170 to 2350 but I will be minimally invested after 2170.

For me, the magic number for DWCPF tomorrow will be 1054. If it blows past there I would guess Rally On. The alternative (from my perspective) when we reach that point is "bull trap". Market has set up a bullish feeling. Everyone wants to be in. You can feel the backslaps and Booyaa's. For example, oil spiked today but we all know there are a glut of oil tankers sitting off almost every major port waiting to sell their oil. Or any negative results from terror or the Russia\Turkey provocation would cause concern.Bottom line, we still have an oversupply unless demand picks up in a major way... unless OPEC announces it's ready to curb supply to even out demand...you never know...

On the other hand, there is a lot of economic news on the calendar tomorrow. If it's good....Happy Thanksgiving!!Booyaa!!!

Here's a picture of todays action showing the R2000 outperformed the SPX. Also a picture of the R2000. Didn't have as nice a picture of DWCPF. MACD is in positive territory, SloSto is around 80, RSI is around 69 it looks. Not bad numbers.

Best to you in your investing!

View attachment 36066

View attachment 36067

 

[airlift]

So, does SPX move above 2097 tomorrow or pullback into the 2070 area. If it pulls back the bull market has more room to run. If it doesn't the margins for a rally shrink. Resistance is 2131 and 2145. After that I've heard numbers ranging from 2170 to 2350 but I will be minimally invested after 2170.

For me, the magic number for DWCPF tomorrow will be 1054. If it blows past there I would guess Rally On. The alternative (from my perspective) when we reach that point is "bull trap". Market has set up a bullish feeling. Everyone wants to be in. You can feel the backslaps and Booyaa's. For example, oil spiked today but we all know there are a glut of oil tankers sitting off almost every major port waiting to sell their oil. Or any negative results from terror or the Russia\Turkey provocation would cause concern.Bottom line, we still have an oversupply unless demand picks up in a major way... unless OPEC announces it's ready to curb supply to even out demand...you never know...

On the other hand, there is a lot of economic news on the calendar tomorrow. If it's good....Happy Thanksgiving!!Booyaa!!!

Here's a picture of todays action showing the R2000 outperformed the SPX. Also a picture of the R2000. Didn't have as nice a picture of DWCPF. MACD is in positive territory, SloSto is around 80, RSI is around 69 it looks. Not bad numbers.

Best to you in your investing!

View attachment 36066

View attachment 36067

Fogsailing,

I appreciate your charts and your good analysis. Do you still expect to deploy the rest? Happy Thanksgiving to you also, and Happy Thanksgiving to all others here!

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Airlift. After 2170, I will not be more than 50% invested until we clear through the bear market. That could be 6 months or 2 years. Because I'm retired I have to be more cautious.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

View attachment 36079

HAPPY THANKSGIVING ALL!

I TRULY VALUE ALL OF YOU, YOUR FRIENDSHIP AND YOUR HELPFUL ADVICE AND IDEAS!

MAY YOU AND YOUR FAMILIES HAVE A BLESSED DAY AND MAY WE ALL BE GRATEFUL FOR ALL WE HAVE BEEN GIVEN.

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Happy Thanksgiving to you too FS! And to everyone! Its been a good day...turkey came out very moist this year.. And nothing forgotten. Now just sitting down for some rest...kitchen cleaning all done. Time for pie!

 

[konakathy]

Hau'oli La Ho'omaiki'i La Kakou !

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone ! I hope everyone enjoyed their day with love, gratitude, and lots of good eats! It's 5pm in the Hawaiian Islands and the sun is still shining bright. Still time to go outside with the Thanksgiving dessert and watch the sunset. The cleanup can wait....not my favorite part. I just wanted to end this perfect day with a little humor.

Some of you may remember the the tv sitcom "WKRP in Cincinati"...this is a funny clip from one of their Thanksgiving shows. ��
Aloha!

 

[FogSailing]

Always loved that program KK!! Thanks! Sounds like a beautiful day in Hawaii and that you have had a wonderful day!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Looks like we've arrived at the moment of truth...will the fed raise the interest rate this week? From the tone, the news is certainly slanted that way BUT, what if Janet doesn't. GDP is down and inflation hasn't cranked up enough to justify a rate increase if they base it on the data....right?

I'm guessing that tomorrow is an up day for SPX...somewhere between 2095 and 2100 followed by a pullback....nothing big; but possibly up to 30 points. If the Fed does increase the rates, seems reasonable that we're in for volatility through Friday. Fed execs are speaking practically every day next week according to the economic calendar so it sure sounds like a plus up for the rate increase BUT what if they don't raise rates?

If they don't raise rates...either someone is going to make a lot of money on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday or we see the market tank down a bit further from DOVE SHOCK.

Roll the dice...it's going to be a wild week.

FS

 

[airlift]

Looks like we've arrived at the moment of truth...will the fed raise the interest rate this week? From the tone, the news is certainly slanted that way BUT, what if Janet doesn't. GDP is down and inflation hasn't cranked up enough to justify a rate increase if they base it on the data....right?

I'm guessing that tomorrow is an up day for SPX...somewhere between 2095 and 2100 followed by a pullback....nothing big; but possibly up to 30 points. If the Fed does increase the rates, seems reasonable that we're in for volatility through Friday. Fed execs are speaking practically every day next week according to the economic calendar so it sure sounds like a plus up for the rate increase BUT what if they don't raise rates?

If they don't raise rates...either someone is going to make a lot of money on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday or we see the market tank down a bit further from DOVE SHOCK.

Roll the dice...it's going to be a wild week.

FS

FogSailing,

What date would the Fed announce if it raises rates or if they hold rates as they are? Tia.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Tia. The FOMC Meeting begins tomorrow and the minutes are stated at 12n on Wednesday.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Tia...My mistake...The FOMC meeting begins on Dec 15 with minutes on Wednesday, Dec 16th. I wasn't focusing on the dates last night when I wrote that...in other words...NEVER MIND...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well, now that I've got the date and time right, here's a chart that looks at support for the S&P tomorrow. If it pulls back, it will likely bounce at support 2060 and then hopefully head back up. At least that's what I'm telling myself...

View attachment 36124

FS