FogSailing's Account Talk

[Minnow]

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Roadtrip::

Off to Seattle for about 10 days for our best friend's daughters wedding. Will miss the forum for the next couple of weeks. All the best to you guys. I hope the market gives back all it has taken but be careful out there: SHARK INFESTED WATERS!

FS

Looks like a future avatar for me. Enjoy your vacation.

 

[FogSailing]

Looks like a future avatar for me. Enjoy your vacation.

What a trip!!!Literally!!! Not in the Timothy Leary sense.

The trip north was fantastic. We spent 3 days in Seattle...just being tourists. Great city and wonderful food. We stayed at the Edgewater which is where the Beatles stayed when they performed there 50 years ago. The young lady who checked us in was cool and gave us a tour of the Beatle's Suite. Since my wife channels the Beatles it was a highlight for her. I really like the Beatle's too, but I'm more Rolling Stones than Beatles. Also enjoyed a Seahawks game against San Diego with the wedding party, a trip to the Underground and Pike Place Market. Cool time. Our best friend's daughter got married at Lake Stevens north of Seattle. Her new hubby is from Australia and the coolest thing was that about 30 friends and family flew all the way from Australia to attend. What a great bunch of people and while it had been chilly there our first few days, the weather was sunny and mild for the wedding. We loved the Australians so much that we accepted their invitation to travel to Perth next April to enjoy the "Barbie on the beach...with Foster's of course".

I had never done Highway 1 from Crescent City, CA down to San Francisco so that was the next leg. I have to say though, I rediscovered my fear of heights on this trip. The highway says 45mph on hairpin turns at 1500 feet on cliffs with no guardrails. I'm simply not capable of performing those acrobatics any longer...so while it's beautiful, I don't think I'll drive the northern route again. We visited Ft Bragg where they have the "seaglass beaches" and were thoroughly blown away by all the seaglass. Beyond cool. Next was the Redwoods National Forest and if you haven't done this, you owe yourself a big favor and need to see them. Talk about feeling like a speck in the universe...what huge beautiful trees. Then we spent time in Bedego Bay so I could see the house that Al Hitchcock used for filming "The Birds"; not to mention eating at the Birds Café which serves the best Seagull sandwich.

I was enjoying checking the forum occasionally while on the trip; but the best post was Donkey's Secret. I couldn't help but laughing so hard my wife thought I was going bonkers.! Anyways, be checking things out for Monday's action. My prediction: market is up on Monday and bonds are even or down a little....always fun to speculate. Glad to be back home! Now, I hope they catch whatever crazy is taking pot shots at tourists on 1-10. Can you believes the craziness? All the best to you next week in your investing.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Decided to play "psychic" at home this weekend....too much time on my hands....oh yeah!!:1244:

So after reading quite a few forums and the comments of many smart guys the last few days, I laid out some market projections for the next 24 weeks. It's all assumptions and guesswork. I'll enjoy watching reality tear the model apart (starting with week 1) but it did help me think through what could logically happen with a market still in correction. Thought I'd share. Feel free to add your thoughts and ideas. It makes me really appreciate the work that goes into creating algorithms and modeling scenarios. I did some of that back in the early nineties when I got my Masters Degree but the wheels don't turn as fast these days and I'm not going to try to remember linear programming. If I had used a true algorithm with probabilities, the chart would likely look very different because it would season in prior history, seasonality, moon cycles, rate external events, etc. and probably be much better at identifying when the ups and down would come. My two biggest assumptions were to project a lower high (Dec 2015) and a bottom (Feb 2016)...all guesswork but still fun to play with.

All the best to you in your investing!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Found this article of interest in marketplace.

For bears, this chart is worth 500 words - MarketWatch

FS

 

[FogSailing]

25 minutes to decide what to do. SPX most likely pivots at 1960 and begins an upward trend to about 2004 according to my chart. It's at 1974 and holding. Does it continue down today? I'm thinking not.. but don't have anything to back that up...I hate that. I don't feel like the shorts are going to make a mint today, they cleaned up yesterday. Technical guidance says momentum continues downward but could zigzag. If I IFT, going partial C/partial S fund. Won't stay in long if I go in and may wait till Monday; I'll be out in October and enjoying the Lily Pad unless something dramatic changes the playing field. All the best to you in your investing.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

So last night I'm preaching "Patience" to DBA and this morning I'm wringing my hands to get in.....forgive me DBA:embarrest::embarrest::embarrest:

At 6:30am I was up and about and read on the EW page that if the SPX broke 1899 that the bottom was likely in for the immediate future; then saw that Cactus was going F, jonfresno and Raven are moving into in equities, and Clester is holding but has his finger on the button based on Forum and Autotracker. This continues (all quiet like) until 7:48am when the 2nd Coffee pot completes and i go to fetch coffee for me and my #1. That gets us into a small discussion on the news crawl AND suddenly the day takes over my life (chores, groceries, schedules and doctors appts). So, I'm back to check in 2 hours later to find that Whipsaw, MacDaddy, Clester, JTH, and Amoeba are in equities, and Cactus changed his mind and went equities and this happened in the few minutes I was away from action. If Tsunami had jumped in, I think I'd have started chopping off appendages as sacrifice to the stock gods...

I'm bummed but Good Luck to you guys.

The morale of the story is don't whine nobody cares, and don't get addicted to morning coffee...

FS

 

[ravensfan]

So last night I'm preaching "Patience" to DBA and this morning I'm wringing my hands to get in.....forgive me DBA:embarrest::embarrest::embarrest:

At 6:30am I was up and about and read on the EW page that if the SPX broke 1899 that the bottom was likely in for the immediate future; then saw that Cactus was going F, jonfresno and Raven are moving into in equities, and Clester is holding but has his finger on the button based on Forum and Autotracker. This continues (all quiet like) until 7:48am when the 2nd Coffee pot completes and i go to fetch coffee for me and my #1. That gets us into a small discussion on the news crawl AND suddenly the day takes over my life (chores, groceries, schedules and doctors appts). So, I'm back to check in 2 hours later to find that Whipsaw, MacDaddy, Clester, JTH, and Amoeba are in equities, and Cactus changed his mind and went equities and this happened in the few minutes I was away from action. If Tsunami had jumped in, I think I'd have started chopping off appendages as sacrifice to the stock gods...

I'm bummed but Good Luck to you guys.

The morale of the story is don't whine nobody cares, and don't get addicted to morning coffee...

FS

I am anticipating Tsunami to jump in tomorrow. I think I read he is out of IFT's until then...Hang in there buddy! Lots of us care! :biggthumpup:

 

[FogSailing]

Interesting link about Years Ending in "5"

Stock Market Analysis for the Nasdaq

FS

 

[FogSailing]

After reading this, I think I'll save the 200+K to send the kid to an Ivy Leage school and see if I can get him a Pell Grant to attend the prison school:scratchchin:

A prison debate team beat the Ivy League

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well... tomorrow will be interesting. We are approaching resistance in the SPX. If SPX stays above 2094 and bounces we'll all break out the tequila and do the cucaracha. If it fails we probably head toward 2085. I have been impressed by this rally. I just hope we haven't hit the highest highs yet and can move up a bit more. Best to everyone in their investing.:laugh:

FS

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[burrocrat]

Well... tomorrow will be interesting. We are approaching resistance in the SPX. If SPX stays above 2094 and bounces we'll all break out the tequila and do the cucaracha. If it fails we probably head toward 2085. I have been impressed by this rally. I just hope we haven't hit the highest highs yet and can move up a bit more. Best to everyone in their investing.:laugh:

FS

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pass me the salt and lime. i think this is going to come hard and sharp and we could all use something to offset the magic marker/turpentine aftertaste. then we party.

 

[Lakebound]

Well... tomorrow will be interesting. We are approaching resistance in the SPX. If SPX stays above 2094 and bounces we'll all break out the tequila and do the cucaracha. If it fails we probably head toward 2085. I have been impressed by this rally. I just hope we haven't hit the highest highs yet and can move up a bit more. Best to everyone in their investing.:laugh:

FS



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I would be interested to see what you think about DWCPF and where we're going there.

Frank

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Frank:

Here's my take on DWCPF. I am not as comfortable with this fund and don't understand it as well, however based on the limited information I have available this am, I'd say it looks bullish. Bullish for how long is a question I don't have an answer to.

I would rather see one of Bquats charts because he does such a great job with outlining all the possibilities BUT I wanted to get back to you. My reading is that the MACD is in positive territory, the moving average was headed positive and the momentum was positive moving into the close. The Bollinger Bands appear to be broadening at the close. However world events, the dollar, or whatever events impact this fund are something I'm not really knowledgeable about. All the best in your investing.

FS

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[FogSailing]

This is an interesting comparison with 2007. Just wanted to share and get some feedback.

FS

View attachment 35967

 

[Tsunami]

This is an interesting comparison with 2007. Just wanted to share and get some feedback.

FS

There's some interesting stuff comparing the current market to 2007, 2011, and 2000 and 1987 at this link and the link embedded within this article...
Stock market enters final bull-market stage - MarketWatch

Is the Stock Market Running out of Willing Buyers?

Dig further with the links in that article (this was part of my entertainment during the boring MNF game last night)...
I'm not sure but his "secret sauce" could be something as simple as the cumulative $NYAD.
Hmm, in fact, look at his "secret sauce" blue line in that article, it's identical to this chart!
$NYAD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
Glad I didn't pay $200 to find that out. Yes there's telltale divergence in the NYAD, but that could continue on longer and by itself doesn't predict the timing of a top, just that it's coming.

 

[FogSailing]

There's some interesting stuff comparing the current market to 2007, 2011, and 2000 and 1987 at this link and the link embedded within this article...
Stock market enters final bull-market stage - MarketWatch

Is the Stock Market Running out of Willing Buyers?

Dig further with the links in that article (this was part of my entertainment during the boring MNF game last night)...
I'm not sure but his "secret sauce" could be something as simple as the cumulative $NYAD.
Hmm, in fact, look at his "secret sauce" blue line in that article, it's identical to this chart!
$NYAD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
Glad I didn't pay $200 to find that out. Yes there's telltale divergence in the NYAD, but that could continue on longer and by itself doesn't predict the timing of a top, just that it's coming.

You know what hit me as funny TS was the term "secret sauce". The "secret sauce" is great marketing. I have to hand it to some guys for being creative and using language that equate making money to my appetite. Really enjoyed the Marketwatch article. Thanks.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

This is one of the more interesting videos I've ever seen. Charlie Chaplin in 1940 in Capable Men.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1086624504704201

FS

 

[userque]

This is an interesting comparison with 2007. Just wanted to share and get some feedback.

FS

View attachment 35967

Can't really read it FS. It's cropped.

 

[FogSailing]

Sorry folks: tried but couldn't get a better copy of the earlier graphic.

On another note: I'm speculating the market will be down on Fed news (the old rate hike scare tactic-but it doesn't matter, there will be some kind of negative news) again and we head down to between 2040-2019 SPX through Friday. That is also November Options expirations. Plan to be back in equities soon thereafter. Now watch the market punch me in the nose again...

FS

 

[exnavyew]

Ain't 4pm yet(easy does it Janet) but I 'forgot' to get out yesterday and (so far) I'm enjoying today's 'ride' . (Better lucky than good as they say.) Then I'm off to the F or G fund COB today to await Santa in Dec. :smile: