FogSailing's Account Talk

Trying to think ahead a little for tomorrow. Right now, here is how things look to me.

Analysis of Todays Charts
18 EMA, 50 and 100 SMA
VIX 50 100 18 Notes: 18 EMA appears to be headed upward, 50 SMA above 100 SMA
C 18 100 50 Notes: POTENTIAL Bear cross, 18 EMA appears to be headed downward
S 100 50 18 Notes: Probable Bear cross, 18 EMA appears to be headed downward
I 100 50 18 Notes: Probable Bear cross, 18 EMA appears to be headed downward
F 100 18 50 Notes: 18 EMA is moving north, crossed 50 SMA but 50 SMA remains below 100SMA

Based on the data I'd have to say that F appears to be the best option at this moment if I were to decide to jump in (the probability is becoming less). None of the funds look stellar. While the MACD for SPX, EFA, and DWCPF all appear to be in positive territory, the Vortex Indicator for each appear to be diverging and those conflicting signals give me pause on equities.

If equities continue to move into negative territory, F Fund is a potential choice.

This is not advice to anyone, just my rambling. :D:banana::D

All the best to you in your investing.

FS
 
Good analysis FS. I'm seeing the same numbers as you and continue to sit on the Lilly pad waiting for that elusive buy signal. Although tempting, I'm not sure the F Fund is the place to head to as this mornings job report probably means interest rates will be raised in September which is bad for the F Fund...:(

By the way, congrats on winning the July Jobs Report Contest!!! You da man! :banana:
 
Thanks Raven. I agree with you on the F Fund. Those jobs numbers change the game.

You'll appreciate my extensive analysis for the jobs numbers. I wrote down 10 numbers in a scattered fashion on a white tablet using different colored pencils and ink, then closed my eyes, spun the tablet, and picked one. Amazing!!:D BTW, this may become my new system for picking which funds to invest in!:D:D:D

FS
 
Thanks Raven. I agree with you on the F Fund. Those jobs numbers change the game.

You'll appreciate my extensive analysis for the jobs numbers. I wrote down 10 numbers in a scattered fashion on a white tablet using different colored pencils and ink, then closed my eyes, spun the tablet, and picked one. Amazing!!:D BTW, this may become my new system for picking which funds to invest in!:D:D:D

FS

I'm envisioning a money wheel with the funds placed strategically around it and two spins per month to stay in tune with our IFT's. :nuts:
 
Thanks Raven. I agree with you on the F Fund. Those jobs numbers change the game.

You'll appreciate my extensive analysis for the jobs numbers. I wrote down 10 numbers in a scattered fashion on a white tablet using different colored pencils and ink, then closed my eyes, spun the tablet, and picked one. Amazing!!:D BTW, this may become my new system for picking which funds to invest in!:D:D:D

FS

out here we call that strategery 'mutton button bingo'. at the county fair the 4-h kids draw a grid with numbers on it and fence it in with livestock panels then sell tickets. 50% of proceeds go to the club and the other half to the winner. then they turn a lamb loose in the pen and see which number it eventually craps on. now before the peta folks get all up in arms about mistreatment of the poor sheep, you should know it is shown in the competition with the rest of them and then sold at auction and taken to slaughter to be turned into lamb chops with all its little lamb friends just the same.

winner winner, chicken dinner.
 
This was just published by NARFE regard the recent attempt by Congress to screw with the G Fund. Just FYI.

Dear Congress: Stop messing with the G Fund Government Executive
Lawmakers must stop targeting the Thrift Savings Plan's government securities fund in budget negotiations, several federal employee advocates said Aug. 6. Congressional proposals to limit the rate of return on the G Fund to reduce the deficit keep surfacing, most recently in Senate talks to finance an extension of highway and transportation funding. While federal employee unions and other advocates, along with the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, succeeded in getting lawmakers to take the proposal off the table during those negotiations, no one believes the idea is completely gone.
 
I think the reason the Dow's bear cross came about is rather interesting. The 50 and 200 MAs for Dow, S&P, and EFA have been headed in that direction since mid July; and may have gotten to a bear cross yesterday of their own volition: BUT they didn't. It took a "man made overt (some may think covert) act" to bring it about. I'm of the school that fighting against the natural order of things is just bad juju, but fighting against the man made order of things is way different. I think our markets are plenty virile enough to get up, dust themselves off, and get back to work. My understanding is that roughly 2/3 of our economy is domestic based so if the damage caused by this action doesn't have anymore downside surprise, I'm hoping the markets will close the gaps. I still thin there is a downward wave coming but I hope it doesn't occur because of China's devaluation action.

Here's a shot of the SPX based on yesterday's action.

View attachment 34816

FS
 
We'll have to see how today fares. For the next period ahead I believe we are going to 2020- 2005 at the minimum. We could go straight there or one more pop to 2045-2055 and then to 2020- 2005.

But then, if indicators are strong at that level we could have a monster BULL rally taking us 2200+ : HOWEVER, if indicators are Bearish at 2020-2005 I think we go to 1975 if that doesn’t hold we go as low as 1920.

I'm now hearing chatter about QE in China. That, along with EU QE makes me think the damage will be contained for the immediate period ahead. if the China QE does happen, I'm guessing the market goes no lower than 1920.

I'm really on the fence. One thing is for certain. September is going to be exciting.

FS
 
View attachment 35001

Roadtrip::

Off to Seattle for about 10 days for our best friend's daughters wedding. Will miss the forum for the next couple of weeks. All the best to you guys. I hope the market gives back all it has taken but be careful out there: SHARK INFESTED WATERS!:D

FS
 
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