FogSailing's Account Talk

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TSP Herd Update.

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Currently 100% of the Top 5 are in G, as are 80% of the Top 50. For the Total Group (1400+ members I guess), 36% are in G.

Interesting information. All the best to you in your investing.

FS
 
View attachment 34646

HERE'S A PICTURE OF WHERE WE ARE TODAY. I WASN'T EXPECTING A TURN UP IN THE MARKET UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY SO IT'S BACK TO DRAWING ROOM FOR ME. I CAN'T GET BACK IN UNTIL AUGUST. PENDING SOME UNKNOWN VARIABLE (YEAH RIGHT-LIKE LIFE) IF YOU'RE IN, ENJOY THE RIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALL THE BEST IN YOUR INVESTING.

FS
 
I just checked the Tracker. If it is updated, 100% of the Top 5 are in G, and almost 80% of the Top 50 are in G. That is interesting because it means the top dogs intentionally or unintentionally didn't buy in today. If I could buy in, my first concern would be the RSI which appears headed toward overbought territory. So, I'd be a bit hesitant about buying in tomorrow. I think tomorrow is another "up" day.... but Thursday and Friday...hmmm

Best of luck to all of you in your investing.

FS
 
It's funny EXN. Last night before I headed to bed I checked the forum, the newsfeeds, and the stock webpages for any unsavory news. Nothing showing. Then I wake up this morning to see your post. It's so laughable. You simply can't control anything. As soon as you think you've got a handle on something....watch out.

Yesterday the market had lots of momentum and it takes an equal and opposite force to counterbalance that momentum. As I mentioned, the RSI was quickly moving to overbought and that's always a "watchout" indicator for me. I still think today "can be" an up day for the market but now that the negative news is leaking out, I could be "south of right" on that one.:D:D:D

All the best in your investing.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
It's funny EXN. Last night before I headed to bed I checked the forum, the newsfeeds, and the stock webpages for any unsavory news. Nothing showing. Then I wake up this morning to see your post. It's so laughable. You simply can't control anything. As soon as you think you've got a handle on something....watch out.

Yesterday the market had lots of momentum and it takes an equal and opposite force to counterbalance that momentum. As I mentioned, the RSI was quickly moving to overbought and that's always a "watchout" indicator for me. I still think today "can be" an up day for the market but now that the negative news is leaking out, I could be "south of right" on that one.:D:D:D

All the best in your investing.

FS
Click to expand...

Saw that article as more of a potential long range indicator.
Market did nice yesterday and today (market liked what Yellen had to say I guess - I got lucky!)
and I got out today to lock in gains, (100% G - COB 7/29)
await the next Thursday night 'signal' and fresh Aug IFT's.

Always enjoy your posts FS! Good luck always! :smile:
 
Thanks EXN! Same goes for your posts. :D:D:D First, it was great that you were able to catch the wave up. I also think you picked a good time to jump out. I'm not saying tomorrow won't be positive but SPX is now in oversold territory. My system showed Monday through Wednesday of this week as "down" with Thursday and Friday "up". Everything worked great except the timing.:D The "up" showed up three days early. Here's a picture of where things stand. Looking forward to August; I think we still have some nice "up" days coming our way until early September. All the best in your investing!!

View attachment 34664

FS
 
"I'm not saying tomorrow won't be positive but SPX is now in oversold territory."

Yeah, I may miss out on further gains in the next few days. But with new 'signal' coming soon and fresh IFT's around the corner I opted to 'lock in' recent gains and just plain got lucky with the market's reaction to whatever Yellen had to say.
When I went to the G-fund prior to noon the C/S funds were bouncing around .4% , .5% up.
Closing around .7% up was nice little bonus. :D

As they say in poker, better lucky than good! :smile:
 
I'm having mixed feelings about jumping in for August tomorrow. On the one hand the MACD and Vortex Indicator look positive. On the other hand, there are those who know the charts better than I do thinking that we're headed for a double top and that doesn't necessarily mean we're headed up before down. If it is a double top, that would be a negative. I'm not comfortable making that call because this could be just more sideways action looking for an opportunity to break one way or the other. The RSI still isn't that oversold yet...so tough call. My instincts are telling me tomorrow is another relatively flat day, but profit taking will likely takes place. I'll have to sleep on it and see what things look like in the am. All the best in your investing.

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FS
 
Interesting day! As of a few minutes ago, S&P was still above the support level of 2085. If it holds tomorrow, I think it will be a nice up...unfortunately I'll be too late to catch that one. However, if it fails, the next level down is 2077 and from there around 2046. if it drops below that...I'll be glad to stay in G.

On the Autotracker...13 of the Top 50 are invested to some extent. The Top 5 are all G Fund as of this morning. For those Top 50 invested, it shakes out like this...62.7% are S fund, 21.5% are I, and the rest are nits and nats of about 6%, except that: NO ONE IS F.

Best of Luck to all of you in your investing.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Interesting day! As of a few minutes ago, S&P was still above the support level of 2085. If it holds tomorrow, I think it will be a nice up...unfortunately I'll be too late to catch that one. However, if it fails, the next level down is 2077 and from there around 2046. if it drops below that...I'll be glad to stay in G.

On the Autotracker...13 of the Top 50 are invested to some extent. The Top 5 are all G Fund as of this morning. For those Top 50 invested, it shakes out like this...62.7% are S fund, 21.5% are I, and the rest are nits and nats of about 6%, except that: NO ONE IS F.

Best of Luck to all of you in your investing.

FS
Click to expand...

Regarding the F Fund, here's something to think about; Since 2006 (that's how far back my data goes) the F Fund has had a positive August every year except 2013...Hmmm, perhaps Tsunami knows something the rest of us don't...He just went 100% F Fund...
 
FogSailing said:
I was considering jumping into the F Fund tomorrow (at least partially for August-September). just saw this article so will have to look at what happens overnight and its impact on bond market.

Puerto Rico defaults on bond payment: Moody's - Yahoo Finance

All the best in your investing.
Click to expand...

puerto rico signaled its intention to default on the psc bond payment last month but it got overshadowed by greece. they also confirmed it again last week. if you think you are going to scoop a 30 day old bond scalp you are sorely mistaken. the market does not work like that.
 
There are several factors I'm considering right now Burro... First is seasonality. This is the time to play the F Fund if I'm going to do it. I've followed the news on Puerto Rico so I am concerned about the "immediate" impact to the bond market. The second is my "gut" feeling that equities have another spike up this month despite Greece, Iran, Big Oil, Transportation Sector, China; not to mention the normal craziness in Syria. Once all the hullaballoo settles down, the reduced commodity prices will be a good thing for most consumers and in turn the markets. So, I'm still tempted to be highly invested in equities (C, S, and I) despite the current volatility. The S&P should still "average" an additional 100 point gain through the end of the year based on the last 5 years of data. In some ways I think this market just got a new lease on life with the reduced commodity prices but there needs to be some downside action first to rebalance the system. So, my gut say goes F Fund until the system rebalances and then jump back into equities. The problem is that with our IFT structure we can't be nimble enough to react to "real bad" news fast enough. The good thing is I'm not paralyzed by it. Another factor, the VIX looks to me like its signaling a move up in equities. I just need to make my decision and get on with it.

All the best in your investing!

FS
 
I doubt it PO. This isn't AIG, more like the Savings and Loan Real Estate debacle of the 80's. It was painful but managed.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Interesting day! As of a few minutes ago, S&P was still above the support level of 2085. If it holds tomorrow, I think it will be a nice up...unfortunately I'll be too late to catch that one. However, if it fails, the next level down is 2077 and from there around 2046. if it drops below that...I'll be glad to stay in G.

On the Autotracker...13 of the Top 50 are invested to some extent. The Top 5 are all G Fund as of this morning. For those Top 50 invested, it shakes out like this...62.7% are S fund, 21.5% are I, and the rest are nits and nats of about 6%, except that: NO ONE IS F.

Best of Luck to all of you in your investing.

FS
Click to expand...

Interesting posts here. I just wanted to point out that top Auto-Tracker folks shunning the F fund right now may not mean that (they believe) the F fund is going down; it could mean that (they believe) other stuff is going 'more up.'...for now.
 

It's like we're all hunkered down waiting for the other shoe to drop...concerned about venturing out into the forest..:D

Most of the Top 50 still in G holding their powder..

FS
 
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