FogSailing's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

FS,

Here's another look at the butterfly pattern you posted yesterday, together with another butterfly pattern that would be very bearish short term. Looks like we'll know which way it's going to go very soon...

http://i.imgur.com/cNZ4J7C.png

This potential megaphone pattern would support the bullish outcome. I sure hope that's what we get...

Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

 

[FogSailing]

I hope so as well Tsunami. I'm getting pasted. I'm now roughly -3 plus % down and it's not pocket change. We could use some good news. I hate to leave a trade when I'm down like this. If equities drop another 2% I'll be re-evaluating a lot of things.

FS

 

[amoeba]

I hope so as well Tsunami. I'm getting pasted. I'm now roughly -3 plus % down and it's not pocket change. We could use some good news. I hate to leave a trade when I'm down like this. If equities drop another 2% I'll be re-evaluating a lot of things.

FS

I'm there with you and I don't like what I'm seeing but crossing fingers nonetheless; it could go either way from here and much, much, faster than it has been (trading is not that heavy).

yet.

 

[Lakebound]

I hope so as well Tsunami. I'm getting pasted. I'm now roughly -3 plus % down and it's not pocket change. We could use some good news. I hate to leave a trade when I'm down like this. If equities drop another 2% I'll be re-evaluating a lot of things.

FS

I'm there with you and I don't like what I'm seeing but crossing fingers nonetheless; it could go either way from here and much, much, faster than it has been (trading is not that heavy).

yet.

The three of us are in the same boat. I don't know what to do really but I suppose if I bail now the market will shoot up for the rest of you and if I stay, we will find new lows. I'm almost at the point where I am in negative territory on my account balance after being positive all year. I've done nothing but lose since October.

Frank

 

[FogSailing]

Here's where we are on the charts:

View attachment 36211

If oil continues to drop, you think we'd see small caps rebounding. This has to be good for businesses other than energy and have a more negative impact on the Dow and C. Right now Slo Sto is at 20 not good, MACD is trying to make it's mind up. I think we're in for another down day before the dip buyers jump in unless we get some great news. On the other hand the first pullback went from 199 to 107 (12), the 2nd pullback from 119 to 113 (6 points) and the current one from 120 to 117 (3 points), so maybe today we shoot up JUST BECAUSE!!!!!

All the best to you in your investing.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Today's Preparation for the Market:

Reviewed Market factors, MACD, RSI, Slow Sto, VIX - check
Performed Wyckoff Analysis for trend lines, parallel lines, volume and price activitiy - check
Review Elliott Wave analysis - check
Check Commodity prices and GOLD and OIL - check
Check the Dollar - check
Review activities of FED, EU, and China Central banks - check
Review market news - check
Review Political\National news headlines - check

MAKE WRONG IFT DECISION - CHECK

I'm starting to think that perhaps I should just go 20% across the board and let it ride till eternity....

FS

 

[Whipsaw]

I'm starting to think that perhaps I should just go 20% across the board and let it ride till eternity....

FS

FS, we don't have that kind of time! =:-o

 

[FogSailing]

The comments below followed the CNBC video ...made me LMAO!!!

I love good humor..

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/08/bank-of-america-analyst-looks-10-years-ahead.html

In discussion about The Fed:
“I get my 10 year advance prognostications about the market from my pet unicorn. My unicorn never took a dime in federal bailouts so he’s completely objective.”

Have a great evening!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I found this on one of the websites I follow. It is a model of possible market behavior. When matched to SPX, looks like we're at about #25.

View attachment 36222

FS

 

[anthony]

Hmm ... too many variables and unknown world event stuff for my taste. I think I'll head for DJI 19,000 instead.

 

[FogSailing]

No idea how things will go (lots of discussion about a continued Monday pullback to the 1990 area based on oil) BUT: I like this picture.....come on SPX...bounce off that support.....come on Santa rally!!

View attachment 36293

FS

 

[burrocrat]

so if we are at 25 that means only a couple more bumps in the road, right? that's not so bad.

 

[amoeba]

First time I read that chart, I thought it said "doomed" house! So what happens after #26?

 

[FogSailing]

These patterns are only that Amoeba. I keep hearing that the bull market is nearing its end this month to sometime over the next 12 months, so that's how long #25 may be around. To me all of #26 onward are longer term wave patterns. The only thing that interests me is that I would like to avoid the big down periods.

In all honesty I would be out right now if I wasn't so far in the hole. I keep hearing that hope is a poor way to trade. I "hope" I don't learn anymore tough lessons this month. There is no guarantee that things will get better this week. In fact, the volatility should be scaring everyone out of the market but I'm sticking through this thing, hell or high water.

Now, let's get this thing done and move on.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Just read this on Saudi Arabia...sounds like a major mid-east development...

Scud missile fired at Saudi Arabia as 38 Yemenis reported killed | Reuters

Another network was reporting that Russian ships have been clearing passage ways for Iranian vessels to deliver Scud missles to Yemen rebels. Sounds like a lot of strategic maneuvering going on.. Also read (don't know if it's true) that Iran has undertaken another ballistic missle test. If true, that could very well mean the recent treaty is null and void and sanctions will need to be reinstated...I was wondering what was going to happen to spike oil prices.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Saw earlier this evening from one of the EW guys (very bearish guy) who was ecstatic because oil had dropped to 36.50. He was pronouncing a 35 point hit tomorrow. I checked it out and he was correct about the pullback in oil price.

So, decided to check the info again a few minutes ago "just because" and look at what's happened in a very short span:

View attachment 36463

I have no idea who contacted the "oil fairy" but thank you! Hope it keeps moving up in price over the evening hours...for the sake of the market..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'll let this sad picture speak for itself. Isn't it amazing that it pulls back into bear territory just before the open of the US markets...My guess we lose another 20-30 points today on this action.

BUT: Happy New Year All!!!

View attachment 36464

FS

 

[FogSailing]

What a crazy day. Look at oil rally..Will the SPX follow suit?

View attachment 36466

FS

 

[FogSailing]

An interesting read about gold, and international intrigue. It includes a host of shady characters and makes you wonder if law enforcement and intelligence services know about this stuff, or if they are just ostriches with our heads in the sand. It would make a great movie about how the bad guys are winning.

On The Trail Of Dubai's Stolen Gold: A Robbed Client Breaks The Silence, And A Fascinating Detail Emerges | Zero Hedge

FS

 

[amoeba]

I've been looking for hints on where (if) there is an oil bottom/turnaround coming; volumes, futures, price fluctuations, etc.,; and I'm not coming up with anything.