FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

My Email to NARFE Legislative Branch sent yesterday:

Hello:

I have written NARFE on this concern before but I have never received a response. I am a retiree with a large chunk of change in the TSP. Many people who retire elect to move their funds into private accounts because of constraints imposed by the existing system on how they can manage those funds. No system is ever perfect but TSP is somewhat outdated in todays volatile market environment and could do better by federal employees.

For example, the Buy and Hold strategy may work fine for bull markets but not bear markets. The Lifecycle Funds likely work well in the bull market environment but employees are at a huge downside risk in a bear market. If they want to help us grow our accounts, there should be some better options on the table for one of the largest pension accounts in the country.

As someone who follows the market daily, I can tell you that the 12pm cut-off for making investment decisions is not helpful, and in fact this limitation has probably cost federal employees millions of lost dollars in our retirement savings. The IFT deadline needs to be later in the day (3-4pm) to make it work better for federal employees.

Also, the number of monthly IFTs at two per month is draconian and is not aligned with market reality. I can understand that the IFTs should have limits because of costs incurred to post transactions. So, the TSP Board could add additional IFTs (say 5 per month), or could charge for additional IFTs over the 2 provided by the TSP per month, but somehow the number of IFTs needs to be increased to make the system work for employees instead of working against employees.

I know that if NARFE took up this issue and queried federal employees and retirees on their opinions, they would receive a lot of good feedback for improving the TSP. The limitations we face are not legislative issues, they are management issues and I would appreciate it if NARFE would represent retirees and federal employees in working to improve this condition for feds.

Thank You.

FS (Name withheld to protect the innocent)

Final Comment: I hope someone answers me this time. Worth a try.

 

[ravensfan]

One of the analysts I follow posted this chart of his expected pattern for SPX. As always, you never know what or when an unexpected event will change the market...but he is suggesting we pullback to about 1860 then rally to 2000 before another big downturn. Here it is ..

View attachment 37168


FS

Nice chart FS and it fits perfectly with what I'm thinking. So I will take 1860 - 1870...Waiting patiently to launch the plan.

 

[FogSailing]

For those that try to follow the most recent news events: read Zero hedge. He has a lot of news there I'm not seeing anywhere else and quite frankly it's very troubling.

Zero Hedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

FS

 

[burrocrat]

My Email to NARFE Legislative Branch sent yesterday:

Hello:

I have written NARFE on this concern before but I have never received a response. I am a retiree with a large chunk of change in the TSP. Many people who retire elect to move their funds into private accounts because of constraints imposed by the existing system on how they can manage those funds. No system is ever perfect but TSP is somewhat outdated in todays volatile market environment and could do better by federal employees.

For example, the Buy and Hold strategy may work fine for bull markets but not bear markets. The Lifecycle Funds likely work well in the bull market environment but employees are at a huge downside risk in a bear market. If they want to help us grow our accounts, there should be some better options on the table for one of the largest pension accounts in the country.

As someone who follows the market daily, I can tell you that the 12pm cut-off for making investment decisions is not helpful, and in fact this limitation has probably cost federal employees millions of lost dollars in our retirement savings. The IFT deadline needs to be later in the day (3-4pm) to make it work better for federal employees.

Also, the number of monthly IFTs at two per month is draconian and is not aligned with market reality. I can understand that the IFTs should have limits because of costs incurred to post transactions. So, the TSP Board could add additional IFTs (say 5 per month), or could charge for additional IFTs over the 2 provided by the TSP per month, but somehow the number of IFTs needs to be increased to make the system work for employees instead of working against employees.

I know that if NARFE took up this issue and queried federal employees and retirees on their opinions, they would receive a lot of good feedback for improving the TSP. The limitations we face are not legislative issues, they are management issues and I would appreciate it if NARFE would represent retirees and federal employees in working to improve this condition for feds.

Thank You.

FS (Name withheld to protect the innocent)

Final Comment: I hope someone answers me this time. Worth a try.

here comes the boom.

 

[burrocrat]

ok boys, tired of getting pushed around by the blackrock market sychophant nerds? it's time to ride. write your narfe rep. push it. here comes the boom.

 

[jpcavin]

I for one am rooting for Mr. Market to be flat to down today and down Friday, Monday and Tuesday. If that happens, I'm thinking of buying in COB Tuesday and then out by Friday. So I'm looking for a little bit of a pullback until early next week and then another dead cat bounce.

At least that's what the tea leaves are telling me at this point...:nuts:

I'm getting a little worried with all this talk about dead cats. :worried:

 

[ravensfan]

I'm getting a little worried with all this talk about dead cats. :worried:

Relax JP...we are talking domestic cats here, not the mighty cougar...

or should I say Judy, Judy, Judy...

 

[burrocrat]

the best part about being a dog is when they let you off the chain.

 

[ravensfan]

the best part about being a dog is when they let you off the chain.

Yeah but if you ain't the lead dog, the view is always the same...:haha:

 

[burrocrat]

Yeah but if you ain't the lead dog, the view is always the same...:haha:

it is better to be givin it to the lead dog than takin it from behind. keep a tight grip on that chain... not such a bad view, all things considered...

 

[amoeba]

Nice chart FS and it fits perfectly with what I'm thinking. So I will take 1860 - 1870...Waiting patiently to launch the plan.

It is a nice chart, but I disagree with the 2000 bounce part of it; I think the high has been put in for this month, it will go below 1,850, bounce slightly from there, and then collapse sometime in March, very quickly as that chart shows. Look for a rising ^VIX above 30 for >3 consecutive days as a clear sign that it is too late to get out for anyone left in that burning building.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Amoeba...personally I'm still thinking along the range of an 1870 pullback then a rally to 1950 is very possible. I don't put any faith in numbers outside that range. If it does go past there...who knows.

Right now the VIX is quite cool. I still expect it to get to the 17, 18 range next week. I don't know if it goes up first and then we decline strongly, or if we pullback a little and then shoot up before the big downtrend: but I do think it will play out one of those scenarios. When it decides to pullback...Look Out Below.

I can't believe everyone is acting like everything is fine. I'm reading blogs and shaking my head because they are so bullish. It's nuts. My guess is that the smart money has been slowing moving out of their positions and keeping the rally going. There are so many less knowledgeable folks in the markets I guess the game is to lure them in with candy, then suck em dry. I still think the real bad stuff happens in later March but again, I am normally off in my timing.

All the best.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Actually, it would be a good thing if several feds did write NARFE to ask about additional TSP services for the masses. I know I'll get beat up by Norm for this one: "It takes a Village"

FS

 

[nnuut]

:bs2::bs2:

 

[amoeba]

That's exactly what I think of this "rally". But its not what I think, it's whether I made any money on it (yes).

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

FS... I think you are right. I have read they are pullin out of equities and moving to safer investments.

Hi Amoeba...personally I'm still thinking along the range of an 1870 pullback then a rally to 1950 is very possible. I don't put any faith in numbers outside that range. If it does go past there...who knows.

Right now the VIX is quite cool. I still expect it to get to the 17, 18 range next week. I don't know if it goes up first and then we decline strongly, or if we pullback a little and then shoot up before the big downtrend: but I do think it will play out one of those scenarios. When it decides to pullback...Look Out Below.

I can't believe everyone is acting like everything is fine. I'm reading blogs and shaking my head because they are so bullish. It's nuts. My guess is that the smart money has been slowing moving out of their positions and keeping the rally going. There are so many less knowledgeable folks in the markets I guess the game is to lure them in with candy, then suck em dry. I still think the real bad stuff happens in later March but again, I am normally off in my timing.

All the best.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

So the VIX is still heading down and oil is up. You can smell the excitement....the bulls are thinking 2000, maybe even 2040 and the bears are thinking time to step up...What will Mr. Market do?

FS

 

[FogSailing]

If anyone was interested in writing to NARFE regarding acquiring their help in getting more flexibility in your TSP, the website is National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association (NARFE). Click on Legislative and write your email there.

Hope the TSP Forum members do this. Nothing happens until they see there are a lot of folks wanting a change.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

My inquiry to NARFE elicited this response. Not exactly what I was about but at least it was an answer. If there are folks in the Forum interested in getting the Board to change the rules, I recommend you let NARFE know. At least we can raise the issue enough that it gets on their radar screen. Once we get an article written about this in the NARFE newsletter, things may start to move. So, FWIW:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We suggest that you contact Mark Keens who has been very instrumental in addressing these issues at.

This is an excellent inquiry and one that can be address by the financial planner who is an expert in this area. MKEEN@KEENPOCOCK.COM His name is Mark Keen. 703-691-9200.

Thank you for contacting NARFE. An IRA provides the ultimate flexibility in taking distributions. As long as you’re satisfying your annual RMDs, you can take monthly distributions, quarterly distributions, lump sum distributions – you name it and you can likely do it. Unfortunately, the TSP does not provide the same level of flexibility. As you suggested, the TSP does not allow annual lump sum distributions. I have attached 2 documents that provide a detailed explanation of the TSP withdrawal options. In summary, here is what you can do:



1. Partial withdrawal

a. This is a one-time only option – if you have taken an in-service withdrawal, or a prior partial withdrawal, this option is no longer available to you.

2. Full Withdrawal – there are 3 full withdrawal options

a. Single Payment

b. Monthly Payments (2 different choices)

i. Monthly payments based on life expectancy

ii. Monthly payments based on a specific dollar amount

c. Life Annuity



The life annuity and monthly payments based on life expectancy will satisfy your RMD requirements. If you select a monthly payment based on a specific dollar amount and the payments do not satisfy your RMD, the TSP will send you a supplemental payment by the required deadline to ensure you’ve met your RMD.



If you elect a Single payment or life annuity – those are irrevocable options and you’re done. But if you elect Monthly payments, you have some flexibility. For example, if you are taking monthly payments you can, at any time, change to a final single payment. In addition, there is an annual change period at the end of each year when you can change the dollar amount of your monthly payments if they are based on a specific dollar amount. You can also make a one-time (irrevocable) change from life expectancy based monthly payments to specific dollar amount payments during the annual change period.



You mentioned big taxes on a single payment, but you can avoid taxes by having the single payment transferred to an IRA account. You cannot rollover RMDs to an IRA, so the TSP will cut you a check to satisfy the RMD and send the remainder to the IRA. Other payments are eligible for rollover to an IRA as well. Please see the section “Eligible Rollover Distributions” section of the Tax Info file.



I hope this helps clear up some of the confusion. Please feel free to contact me via email or phone if you have additional questions.



Have a great day!



Al Reeves, Federal Benefits Specialist

NARFE

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subject: TSP Related Concerns

Message: Hello: I have written NARFE on this concern before but I have never received a response. I am a retiree with money in the TSP. Many people who retire elect to move their funds into private accounts because of constraints imposed by the existing system on how they can manage those funds. No system is ever perfect but TSP is somewhat outdated in todays volatile market environment and could do better by federal employees. For example, the Buy and Hold strategy is fine for bull markets but not bear markets. The Lifecycle Funds work well in the bull market environment but employees are at a huge downside risk in a bear market. If they want to help us grow our accounts, there should be some better options on the table for one of the largest pension accounts in the country. As someone who follows the market daily, I can tell you that the 12pm cut-off for making investment decisions is not helpful, and in fact this limitation has probably cost federal employees millions of lost dollars in our retirement savings. The IFT deadline needs to be later in the day (3-4pm) to make it work better for federal employees. Also, the number of monthly IFTs at two per month is draconian and is not aligned with market reality. The IFTs should have limits because of costs incurred to post transactions. So, the TSP Board could add additional IFTs (say 5 per month), or could charge for additional IFTs over the 2 provided by the TSP per month, but somehow the number of IFTs needs to be increased to make the system work for employees instead of working against employees. These are not legislative issues, they are management issues and I would appreciate it if NARFE would represent retirees and federal employees in working to improve this condition for feds. Thanks You

 

[userque]

Nice work FS!