FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Not much time to elaborate but using 1st Auf IFT to leave stocks and go 100% G COB today. S&P up 7 of 8 days...open gap exists about 2% below, so...

 

[FireWeatherMet]

With continued good news on inflation front, using 2nd Aug IFT to do some end of month housekeeping and leave G-fund...going 100% C COB today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Given flattening out pattern at new highs, using 1st Sep IFT, leaving 100% C position and going 100% G COB today.

Interestingly, the "Oscar Carboni Proprietary Resistance Line Moving Avg" served as a great resistance point recently. I don't expect any upcoming downturn to go that far down, maybe back down to the 10 or 20 day EMA, IMHO.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Well, after sitting on the G Lilly-pad since late September, doing 1st IFT in nearly 3 months, went 50/50 into C and S COB Today (Dec 18th).
Initially the thought was we have dropped enough for now. DOW was down 9 straight days, longest since 1978 (now 10 straight days) and that we would do a holiday bounce back up, and then I would exit before markets decide to plunge down to fill the monster open gap "Trump Bounce" from early Nov. So I made my move from G into C and S, and lo and behold, the market plunged violently the last 2 hours, spooked by something the Fed hinted at. The Dow Industrials actually filled the open gap (below) while the S fund filled about 2/3rds of the gap (2nd pic below), while the S&P just touched the top of the gap. (3rd pic below). Wasn't expecting that, but it might have timed out just right, by mistake, we'll see. If today is a bottom, maybe another TSPtalk coffee cup will go into the cupboard at months end, lol.

.

 

[FAAM]

Wow, I suspect & strongly hope that your luck & timing here are impeccable -- as I'm fully in a mix (mostly C & S), and used up my good two IFTs for this month already, before today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Well, 2 days after closing my eyes and plunging off the "G-fund diving-board" into the C & S pool, feeling pretty good with 6 trading days left in the month.

 

[tsptalk]

Nice! That's what it's all about -- a 1.2% gain during a month that the C and S funds are down 2% and 4 % respectively.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

With 2% plus gains for Jan, and markets leaning over today, after failing yesterday off their intraday highs, will use 1st Jan IFT to leave stocks and go 100% G, COB today.

 

[TommyIV]

With 2% plus gains for Jan, and markets leaning over today, after failing yesterday off their intraday highs, will use 1st Jan IFT to leave stocks and go 100% G, COB today.

I like your reasoning. Sort of wishing I jumped to the G-fund today too, but I have a hard time selling on red days. But this could be the beginning of a deeper pull back.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

After my 3 day hiding on the G-Lilly-pad, the "Blood in the Streets" sell-off has arrived.
Is it just a short term drop, or the start of something more sinister?
Well, keeping emotions out, and analysis in, there is a huge monster open gap on the S&P that needed to be filled, and its almost there (chart below).
S-fund chart also similar with that big gap and it being within a half percent of being filled.
Could have waited another day, but with a few hours left in the day, it could fill the gap intraday, then start bouncing back sharply.
So left my 100% G position and going in 50% C and 50% S COB today.

 

[rangerray]

I hope you made a great trade!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Fridays COB re-entry into 100% stocks seems to have worked out...as so often happens when you get close to filling the gap, its better to go back in a little early, rather than a little late, many times those gaps get filled intra-day.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

With todays plunge based on AI fears, and AI being such a large percentage of market gains the past 2 years, I am inclined to lock in this months gains (6.48% before today, probably 5% by days end) and wait for this to settle out.

The longer term still looks good IMHO, with the Fed poised to start cutting, along with oil prices set to drop due to production increase pledges from US and maybe even Saudi Arabia, so the theme for most of this coming year might still be "Don't Fight the Fed".

 

[nasa1974]

I'm from the government. I'm here to help.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I'm from the government. I'm here to help.

An unfortunate slogan from 1970's, in reality the gov't for the most part, is there to help.
Its the private sector bankers ,lawyers etc who are there to rip you off.

 

[nasa1974]

An unfortunate slogan from 1970's, in reality the gov't for the most part, is there to help.
Its the private sector bankers ,lawyers etc who are there to rip you off.

In reality mostly true. Not so sure about the folks in Washington D.C. now.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Well, after 6 straight down days, and the filling of a major open gap (below) on the S&P, figured this was as good a time as any to jump back in.
Especially since its the last day of the month, and how weekends tend to have news reversals for the following week.

Leaving 100% G and going 50% C and 50% S COB today.
Go bold or go home,

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Regretting my premature move back into stocks this past Friday.
Normally today would be looked at as a good "Buy In" opportunity...but given possible RIF's in the near future, have to play defense here and "Wealth Preservation"...so going back to 100% G COB Today.

If Trump announces a sudden end to the Tariffs in tonight's speech...we would likely slingshot upward, and although that first bounce back day would be the biggest, I would quickly throw my $$ back into stocks. But reading some of the recent posts on our forum, From James mentioning the "Hindenburg Omen" and Tom responding with the "Titanic Syndrome"...in the immortal words of Samuel Jackson via Pulp Fiction "$hit...Dats All You Needs to Say".

So...leaving my 50/50 C and S position and going 100% G COB today.

 

[WorkFE]

Regretting my premature move back into stocks this past Friday.
Normally today would be looked at as a good "Buy In" opportunity...but given possible RIF's in the near future, have to play defense here and "Wealth Preservation"...so going back to 100% G COB Today.

If Trump announces a sudden end to the Tariffs in tonight's speech...we would likely slingshot upward, and although that first bounce back day would be the biggest, I would quickly throw my $$ back into stocks. But reading some of the recent posts on our forum, From James mentioning the "Hindenburg Omen" and Tom responding with the "Titanic Syndrome"...in the immortal words of Samuel Jackson via Pulp Fiction "$hit...Dats All You Needs to Say".

So...leaving my 50/50 C and S position and going 100% G COB today.

Tough choice FWM

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Leaving nearly 2 months of safety in G, and going 50% I, 25% C, 25% S COB Today.
Despite Negative GDP....stocks already seem to have bottomed intraday and starting to move upward.
Will stay nimble in May...but now FOMO starting to set in market-wide, could push stocks significantly higher.