FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
As explained yesterday, I'm rolling the other 50% of my dry powder into stocks COB today.
Going 50% C and 50% S COB today.
Going 50% C and 50% S COB today.
-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
FireWeatherMet Account Talk
- Thread starter FireWeatherMet
- Start date
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
I think it's the 86-day. :shhh:
You know, after you said this, I just had to recalculate and re-map.
Talk about hitting a bulls-eye with the EMA and gap fill.
A quick 0.5% dip at the start of Fri trading should fill the gap and touch Oscar's "Happy Line"...and trigger big PM reversal. We are overdue....down 4 days in a row and 7 of 8.
Hopefully Oscar (and me) are jumping with joy by COB Friday.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Well, had to wait one more day to start jumping for joy, but jumping for joy I am, as a good plan came to fruition.
Another couple of things that may help continue the uptrend.
1) Massive 95 Billion Military Aid package to Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan passed its most difficult hurdle, getting an actual vote in the House. It should breeze thru the Senate and get signed immediately by the President.
Regardless of where one stands politically on the issue, the economic impact will be huge for the US (and equities) as 90% of that money stays here in the US and goes to build new weapons, from artillery shells, to HIMARS, ATACMS, Armored vehicles, taniks etc...
So you can think of it as an 80-86 Billion dollar instant stimulus for the US economy, and that should help negate any Recession threat, minimal as it was even before this.
2) Number of Americans getting a tax refund estimated to be up this year to 40% (from 36% last year). So nearly half of Americans will suddenly have hundreds of dollars (or more) to spend. This is more shorter term but still counts as the amount is in the Billions.
Otherwise the gap fill (and Oscars 'Proprietary" 86 day MA) acted like solid barriers, where the falling market turned and surged, like a scolded dog.:arms:
Another couple of things that may help continue the uptrend.
1) Massive 95 Billion Military Aid package to Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan passed its most difficult hurdle, getting an actual vote in the House. It should breeze thru the Senate and get signed immediately by the President.
Regardless of where one stands politically on the issue, the economic impact will be huge for the US (and equities) as 90% of that money stays here in the US and goes to build new weapons, from artillery shells, to HIMARS, ATACMS, Armored vehicles, taniks etc...
So you can think of it as an 80-86 Billion dollar instant stimulus for the US economy, and that should help negate any Recession threat, minimal as it was even before this.
2) Number of Americans getting a tax refund estimated to be up this year to 40% (from 36% last year). So nearly half of Americans will suddenly have hundreds of dollars (or more) to spend. This is more shorter term but still counts as the amount is in the Billions.
Otherwise the gap fill (and Oscars 'Proprietary" 86 day MA) acted like solid barriers, where the falling market turned and surged, like a scolded dog.:arms:
You know, after you said this, I just had to recalculate and re-map.
Talk about hitting a bulls-eye with the EMA and gap fill.
A quick 0.5% dip at the start of Fri trading should fill the gap and touch Oscar's "Happy Line"...and trigger big PM reversal. We are overdue....down 4 days in a row and 7 of 8.
Hopefully Oscar (and me) are jumping with joy by COB Friday.
Last edited:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Small Caps look like they're breaking out.
Still about 5% away from new 2024 high.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Yes but given the chart probabilities, with an ascending series of higher lows and higher highs, does one want to be 5% richer...or not?
Maybe more like 7-10% richer...if its a true bounce off resistance the next short term ascending destination is likely to be a few percent higher than the most recent high.
Its been my (limited) experience that in a Bull Market, when you drop several percent to fill a large open gap, then shoot upward from it, you are most likely to not just meet, but exceed, the previous high.
But using the S&P as an overall market barometer, as its a bit more broader & stable of an index, there are 2 ways the market could go from here.
Scenario 1) We keep going or chopping higher, to new highs.
Scenario 2) We drop sharply from here, to fill the new open gap that has appeared about 4% lower than here (on the S&P).
My bet is on Scenario 1, but much will depend on new Inflation data that comes out Wednesday, extreme news on either side would likely be the catalyst to a big move in either direction, but "No News" (aka expected number) would probably favor a slow melt-up higher. IMHO.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Have ridden a nice wave upwards since going in full stocks (S and C) in mid April.
But all good things must briefly end, even in a Bull Market.
S&P has recently made new highs, after its meteoric rise thru the month, but seems things are leveling off and looking a bit "topish".
Tom mentioned in his latest Market Summary of the current developing top is similar to the one in APril and another similar pattern in 2023.
A zoomed in view of the S&P show some recent open gaps that would be healthy bull market brief pullbacks.
In addition, we recently reached a new 4 year low on the VIX a few days ago, and VIX was up today despite stocks starting to go up, also a warning sign that the next few days could see a change.
RIsing oil prices also could create some ntlationary concerns, leading up to Friday's inflation report.
So will use 1st May IFT to lock in approx 5% gains and go 100% G Lilypad COB today.
If we get a good 1-2 day pullback next few days to the 1st open gap, I might go back into stocks before the end of the month.
Good luck everyone.
But all good things must briefly end, even in a Bull Market.
S&P has recently made new highs, after its meteoric rise thru the month, but seems things are leveling off and looking a bit "topish".
Tom mentioned in his latest Market Summary of the current developing top is similar to the one in APril and another similar pattern in 2023.
A zoomed in view of the S&P show some recent open gaps that would be healthy bull market brief pullbacks.
In addition, we recently reached a new 4 year low on the VIX a few days ago, and VIX was up today despite stocks starting to go up, also a warning sign that the next few days could see a change.
RIsing oil prices also could create some ntlationary concerns, leading up to Friday's inflation report.
So will use 1st May IFT to lock in approx 5% gains and go 100% G Lilypad COB today.
If we get a good 1-2 day pullback next few days to the 1st open gap, I might go back into stocks before the end of the month.
Good luck everyone.
Last edited:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
On the run from the airport, but noticed the 1st open gap on the S&P seems to have been filled, so using 2nd May IFT to leave the G and back into stocks, 50/50 C and S, COB today. Going for the monthly coffee cup, maybe lol. Always funny what is part of my motivation lol.
Hope you get your coffee cup. I would like to be in the top 200 That's twice as high as I am now.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Well, thanks to the last hr stock surge, I just might have reached the Top 5 for the month. Was #7 going in today, and todays results should push me into #5, by a hair.
However, this is the "visible" list, will have to see what the "unlisted members visible" full standings show.
But either way, happy with my IFT yesterday of going back into stocks, catching a 0.53% gain (50/50 C and S) and positioning into fully invested position for the new month, allowing a move both out, then back in again, if needed, for June.
I was expecting a late day reversal, common whenever there is a change in market direction, so I was actually pleased to see the market slide down the first few hours today.
Given today's inflation data staying in line with slight moderation of inflation, and the price of oil (An Inflation Influencer) down sharply today, the market decided that the filling of the first open gap on the S&P was the logical short-term bottom, for now.
I've been using the open gaps more and more for timing bottoms, thanks much to Tom's highlights of them over the years.
However, this is the "visible" list, will have to see what the "unlisted members visible" full standings show.
But either way, happy with my IFT yesterday of going back into stocks, catching a 0.53% gain (50/50 C and S) and positioning into fully invested position for the new month, allowing a move both out, then back in again, if needed, for June.
I was expecting a late day reversal, common whenever there is a change in market direction, so I was actually pleased to see the market slide down the first few hours today.
Given today's inflation data staying in line with slight moderation of inflation, and the price of oil (An Inflation Influencer) down sharply today, the market decided that the filling of the first open gap on the S&P was the logical short-term bottom, for now.
I've been using the open gaps more and more for timing bottoms, thanks much to Tom's highlights of them over the years.
Last edited:
JTH
Well-known member
Congrats, it was a great run, I lost my coffee cups in the divorce, so need to earn one as well...
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
I thought this was an interesting article, on long term historical Stock Sentiment and where we are today.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
I would say starting to approach a sell signal...given the 10+ years on the chart, it could run a bit higher, but definately worth keeping an eye on from here on in.
Otherwise, I'm still mostly invested, with only brief exits to safety, in assuming we are in a Bull Market still.
Similar threads
- Article