FERs Mainly

[JimmyJoe]

I noted that 8 out of 10 recent ift's moved into stocks so I wanted to find out some end of the month stats. Here is my find on the net;
Norm Fosback used to publish a seasonal trading strategy in his newsletter, Market Logic, with good results. That strategy was invested in S&P 500 futures only during the two days before a market holiday, the last two trading days of each month, and the first four trading days of the next month (the “pre-holiday” and “month-end” seasonals). Nelson notes that the annualized return isolated only to those days works out to about 34% since 1928. Including the days when the strategy was out of the market, presumably earning the T-bill yield, the annualized gain from 1952 through 2001 would have been 13.6% before transaction costs, compared with 12.8% for a buy-and-hold. That's not a bad comparison given that it assumes being invested only one-third of the time.
So I'll leave 4% in the market for a few days. Thanks for your ift info folks.

So we're almost into June. Since we didn't get sucked under Thursday, quite the contrary, I'm thinking about getting back in for the 2nd, 25%. Keeping an eye out for the reefs and undertow. I won't lose any more than a few hundred. My stops are in place. Indeed, I plan to gain about a k the first week of June. I'll need it to buy hot dogs and root beer for father's day.:cheesy: If things don't work out my way I just might be heading back to Texarkanna.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I think I'll be careful next week. Play it cool. I've heard there could be a sucker's rally or a fall. Monday (and Tuesday) morning numbers could be tells. If I put anything into stocks, it may be just 10-20%. She's tough out there.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Just saw "Kelly's Heroes". How did it pass censorship? Film execs edited it massively and still... What a blueprint for any enterprising team wanting to make a score.:cheesy::cheesy::cheesy::cheesy:

 

[Boghie]

JimmyJoe,

Someone close to retirement should have most of his/her assets in the G/F bond funds. Not all, but a sizable chunk. Like, lets say, enough to support your needs for 5 - 7 years with a complete draw down. The rest should be in C/S/I.

Right now I would have a little more in G/F than required.

The basic idea is that you have multiple 'buckets' that statistically support one another. Anything in equities must have a 12 - 15 year no touch horizon. The other buckets are filled to a point that you live on them for 12 - 15 years.

This concept is a 'buckets of money approach by Ray Lucia'.

Ric Edelman has numerous good books as well. His 'Lies About Money' would be an exceptional asset for you. There is a nice quiz with resulting asset allocations within the book.


However, you seem to be actively trading all of your account - treating it as a swinger. Get out, out, and out - then inch in some, a little more, and then bang. That might be fine for those with a 20+ year horizon - but a retiree? I would strongly recommend 'playing' only with 15+ year money. The rest should always be in G/F.

I think your early concern about CSRS and FERS was a bit off. Maybe a way to easily determine the time horizon of the various investors on this site. In that, BirchTree would have a very long horizon since he does not intend to use assets from his TSP account while Grandma would have a short (or in retirement) time horizon. As another example I have at least a 20 year horizon. I also figure in my FERS pension into the equation (guaranteed? money). Thus, I can have move risk - therefore more reward.:cheesy:

 

[JimmyJoe]

You're right. However, I did make 30% over the last year because of the good stock market from June 2009 to Apr 2010. That year was profitable so I was in about 75%. Got greedy, listened to some of the heavy hitters on this forum and Wham, May makes me lose all my gains for this year. Still, I'm up 25% since June 2009.

At this time, you are right. The market is like a buffeting wind on my sails and I can't get no direction. (sound familiar, unless you're in the G fund). Everyone connected to the market has theories on where to put one's money, and, as you suggest, I am leaning toward putting less into stocks these days. Maybe 10%. Maybe 5%. I'm at my 'stop' so I can't put more than 5% into stocks. Maybe 20% F fund. I'll re read your post and maybe do some trading based upon what you recommend. Appreciate your suggestions. Tell you what, working stocks sure beats work, whether the markets comply or not. TSP is as close as I want to get to trading stocks and being able to fly to the G is a pretty good deal. I do like the DCA thing. You know, with all this text flying back and forth, what we're saying is to "be careful out there".

Heh', Or maybe that's not what you're saying. Maybe I don't have to be that careful if one invests correctly. But what happens if the market goes bull? My 15% won't get what I'd like. In a bull market 50 to 75% of my money in the market would be great.

Your comments are appreciated. They will add to my prosperity during my retirement, or 'independent wealth'. And I plan to never be anything less than 'independently wealthy'. And that includes having a little extra money and folks to discuss money with. Thanks,

 

[JimmyJoe]

Getting near to the ship and the anchor time. The anchor (DOW) takes down the ship (S%P). Benchmark numbers getting close again. Careful out there folks.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I have to show my support for those that don't find Birch's advice beneficial, particularly during these down times. It's getting to the point that Birch could wisely heed the advice of those of us who really will need their TSP funds for retirement. The elephant in the room that will ruin many countries and their economies is the oil spew. I cannot believe that thing cannot be fixed buy the imputes of our politicians, managers of engineers, and mining specialists. As it stands we're looking at some messy **** coming down the pike. How is it possible that the next months will be viewed by the stock marketers and TSP traders as a climate in which markets could improve? This is not normalcy. My advise; Be careful out there and look to the G/F fund these days, with a slight view of the stocks. Maybe things will improve but I think not. Oh there will be days when it will look like the market will take off upwards without us, but I've been watching the whipsaw market and sucker rallies, and the TSP leader board. And the G funders are doing 'jus fan'. Nice and easy does it. The irony of this is that Birch's advice works just as well when the market is going down too. Like "The hardest thing to do is to not make the easier move, but the hardest move". i.e. Perhaps stay out of the market right now, in this case. That could make you the smarter investor. Good luck all.

 

[JimmyJoe]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbG69SAZUKw&feature=related

How BP and those involved with the cleanup effort see the oil mess.

 

[WorkFE]

That could make you the smarter investor. Good luck all.

Changes daily, pick your poison. Move out smartly and draw fire.

 

[JimmyJoe]

OK. Since I'm moving more to the F fund; The bonds went up .29%, but show .01% on the share prices board on the TSPtalk page. That's some high math.:worried::suspicious:

 

[Boghie]

OK. Since I'm moving more to the F fund; The bonds went up .29%, but show .01% on the share prices board on the TSPtalk page. That's some high math.:worried::suspicious:

JimmyJoe,

Your IFTs are executed (if you make them before 12 noon EST) at COB the day you make them (hopefully - there is no guarantee they will execute that evening, but I have never seen them delay).

Thus, 100% of your holdings today were in the 'G Fund'.

Therefore, you got your 0.02% growth for Saturday and Sunday

But, at least you did not lose money like marvelous me:nuts:

 

[JimmyJoe]

A for effort Bogie. Just trying to figure, for my future knowledge beginning tomorrow, how the AGG could make .29% for today when clicking on today's AGG scale chart at the bottom of the Main TSP talk page, and only 01% shown with the other share prices for all the funds near the bottom of the same Main TSP talk page.

I play fairly cheaply that's why I'm playing the F fund, something you suggested, because I need to use my money, like monthly. Tomorrow looks like a good day for stocks so I may just start off my F funding in a negative fashion.

 

[JimmyJoe]

A for effort Bogie. Just trying to figure, for my future knowledge beginning tomorrow, how the AGG could make .29% for today when clicking on today's AGG scale chart at the bottom of the Main TSP talk page, and only .01% shown with the other share prices for all the funds near the bottom of the same Main TSP talk page.

 

[Afishegg]

Please feel free to add or subtract to this thread guys, I'm young!

I read an interestin article in money magazine, I have seen this number thrown around before and here is the bottom line for retiring. If you start @ around 30 yrs of age you should be putting away atleast $400 a month for 30 yrs. Assuming you gain a respectable %7 yearly return you should come out with around an 300-450k fat account, hey if you can put in even more GREAT.

Another # suggests this. With an account worth 25k and assuming you add NOTHING at all to it, but gain the %7 yearly, after 30 years it should be worth around 150-170k. Thats not bad (nuff to git yurself a doublewide own tha lake), and you know what? 30 years will be here before you know it. Peace, Fishegg

 

[Boghie]

Afishegg,

Scenario 1:

30 years old
65 at retirement
3.1% inflation rate
$4,800/year invested
7% investment growth
Results in a nest egg of ~ $660,000, $13,500\year till 85 after taxes inflation adjusted​

Scenario 2:

30 years old
65 at retirement
3.1% inflation rate
$4,800/year invested - increase annually by inflation
7% investment growth
Results in a nest egg of ~ $995,000, $19,400\year till 85 after taxes inflation adjusted​

Scenario 3:

30 years old
65 at retirement
3.1% inflation rate
$25K startup, $0/year invested
7% investment growth
Results in a nest egg of ~ $267,000, $5,400\year till 85 after taxes inflation adjusted​

Personally, I don't like option 1. Why shouldn't one increase their contributions to retirement with inflation?

Option 2 is pretty good. Remember that the Gubmint matches your first 5%. I, personally think one should invest around 10% of his/her gross to retirement. Get outa bad debt first then set yourself up.

Option 3 is the 'Alpo Meal Deal' of the three. Don't ask GenXers like me to cover your retirement when you did not invest in it. And, the end result is that you have much more in your nest egg than you thought. You simply need a lot more in your retirement account than you might think.


How about Scenario 4:

30 years old
65 at retirement
3.1% inflation rate
$11,800/year invested - increase annually by inflation
7% investment growth
Results in a nest egg of ~ $2,364,000, $48,000\year till 85 after taxes inflation adjusted​

I like scenario 4. Remember that a large chunk of that $1K/month is the match. And, that the tax advantages will take a large chunk of the pain out of the equation. Your portion of the $1K/month will probably cost around $600 - or about $300/pay period. Maybe something between #1 and #4 is the sweet spot

Finally, whether folks know it or not, pension funds (like CSRS and the FERS pension) are invested as well. What do you think will happen if those investments sour. Just look at Illinois and Kalefornea for that answer. Folks, it ain't free money, and the gubmints overpromised returns.

Please feel free to add or subtract to this thread guys, I'm young!

I read an interestin article in money magazine, I have seen this number thrown around before and here is the bottom line for retiring. If you start @ around 30 yrs of age you should be putting away atleast $400 a month for 30 yrs. Assuming you gain a respectable %7 yearly return you should come out with around an 300-450k fat account, hey if you can put in even more GREAT.

Another # suggests this. With an account worth 25k and assuming you add NOTHING at all to it, but gain the %7 yearly, after 30 years it should be worth around 150-170k. Thats not bad (nuff to git yurself a doublewide own tha lake), and you know what? 30 years will be here before you know it. Peace, Fishegg

 

[JimmyJoe]

Bogie, Fishegg, So you are figuring long term. OK, I like short term mixed with long. Bogie's attached are good numbers based on 7% growth but I read recently that for the last 10 years the stocks have gained 1%. This is proven by looking at the TSP.Gov spreadsheets for the last decade. Stocks are no longer an arena for investors, rather it's for traders. So I now look at the IFTs of our top TSP traders and what they have done individually. In our midst, our top 10 TSP folks are the stock analysts who do us/me well. Their advice and IFTs are real time, and proven. I'll pick the ones who fit my style and keep about 50% still in the G, since I'm retired (and therefore independently wealthy). Presently I'm level 0 percent for the year. I bet, following our leaders, I end up plus 2 to 4 percent by December.

It's great weather in DC. Going to Richmond, then Williamsberg, VA today.

Afishegg,

Scenario 1:

30 years old
65 at retirement
3.1% inflation rate
$4,800/year invested
7% investment growth
Results in a nest egg of ~ $660,000, $13,500\year till 85 after taxes inflation adjusted​

Scenario 2:

30 years old
65 at retirement
3.1% inflation rate
$4,800/year invested - increase annually by inflation
7% investment growth
Results in a nest egg of ~ $995,000, $19,400\year till 85 after taxes inflation adjusted​

Scenario 3:

30 years old
65 at retirement
3.1% inflation rate
$25K startup, $0/year invested
7% investment growth
Results in a nest egg of ~ $267,000, $5,400\year till 85 after taxes inflation adjusted​

Personally, I don't like option 1. Why shouldn't one increase their contributions to retirement with inflation?

Option 2 is pretty good. Remember that the Gubmint matches your first 5%. I, personally think one should invest around 10% of his/her gross to retirement. Get outa bad debt first then set yourself up.

Option 3 is the 'Alpo Meal Deal' of the three. Don't ask GenXers like me to cover your retirement when you did not invest in it. And, the end result is that you have much more in your nest egg than you thought. You simply need a lot more in your retirement account than you might think.


How about Scenario 4:

30 years old
65 at retirement
3.1% inflation rate
$11,800/year invested - increase annually by inflation
7% investment growth
Results in a nest egg of ~ $2,364,000, $48,000\year till 85 after taxes inflation adjusted​

I like scenario 4. Remember that a large chunk of that $1K/month is the match. And, that the tax advantages will take a large chunk of the pain out of the equation. Your portion of the $1K/month will probably cost around $600 - or about $300/pay period. Maybe something between #1 and #4 is the sweet spot

Finally, whether folks know it or not, pension funds (like CSRS and the FERS pension) are invested as well. What do you think will happen if those investments sour. Just look at Illinois and Kalefornea for that answer. Folks, it ain't free money, and the gubmints overpromised returns.

 

[Boghie]

JimmyJoe,

I think you are on target. But, maybe reading Ray Lucia's 'Buckets of Money' would help 'scientifically' setting your safe/'at risk' asset ratio. Basically, his style is to set up around three buckets - the first is an absolutely safe money bucket (G or annuity) that is intended to be completely drawn down in about seven years. The next bucket would be bonds and REITS (F or safe bonds, REITS) that will grow more aggressively and refill bucket 1 when it is depleted. This bucket should be set up to refill bucket 1 after about seven years. Bucket 3 is equities and is long term. It is used to fill bucket 2. It has a 14 year timeframe...

In the end, you may need more or less in your G Fund - that is, Bucket 1.

I'm not retired, but the idea is very sound.


As far as following the leaders. There are some good ones there. If you noticed - most are in hiding right now. I would be wary about using general news as a trigger. I don't think they do. My biggest mistake this year was listening to a politician and the media regarding 'Recovery Summer'. Dumb.

Finally, watch out using the 10 year stats. Ten years ago we were at the height of a stock market bubble. Those bubbas match that bubble mark with the end of 2009 (last full year). We were just coming out of a market crash. Those 10 year stats will look great in a couple of years when the beginning number is the bottom of a market crash and the end number is a recovering market. Equities will again look like the best and only investment to make.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Follow the "Last Month's Best Fund" method. Go a little bullish this August.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Not totally to the I fund for the LMBF. I like the C fund as well as the I. They both did well last month. The F fund looks like a nice life line, just in case. So there you have it.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I think the I fund could rise today since it didn't much yesterday.