FERs Mainly

[Texarkandy]

Somebody on this forum has been talking 'deflation' and I agree. If that's the case, civil servant retirees are going to be ok in the future as far as inflation goes, imo. I just don't want to lose much more this Spring so I'm moving to safety. The times are ify but not too ify to keep some money in stocks.

Deflation? What deflation? I ain't seen no deflation (except in the value of the house I'd like to sell).

 

[JimmyJoe]

Movint to 65% G. The elephant in the middle of the room that we aren't talking about too much is the oil spew. Even if we plug it, the Feds are gonna be in for millions/billions paying off South and Central America not to mention each of the States its gonna affect and whoever. It's gonna be a bumby ride. It is gonna be a faux market with this spew in the factors. Screw oil. Just screw oil. Always a devils commodity.

Looking more like a move to G. Bloomberg says the futures not good.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I went to 90% G for Monday. Thankfully.
The Euro, oil spill, looming correction, "Out in May". I might go 95%.:suspicious:

 

[JimmyJoe]

Darn Germans and their naked shorts. Which is it? Are they going naked over there or are they just wearing shorts? Anyway. I am 2 days into a victory lap because on Monday I went 90% G. It's been a relief. Sometimes I do my best guessing (ain't that what it really is?) by myself, without all the input from others. I'll appreciate the input when the market returns positive. It'll be next month for me since I'm out of ammo. I've noted that the others that have been making money by not losing money during this month are buy and holders in the G. Or they are happily moving to the G by degrees. It's paid off for them. For me, these past 3 days couldn't be sweeter. And if I remain true to my 'stops', my style of investing will keep me warm at night.

 

[Silverbird]

Don't blame the Germans about showing underwear, they are ordering everyone trading in their country to keep their pants on. :toung:

It is rather a silly name for a financial transaction.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Speaking of transactions, how can I stop my twice monthly IFT statements from getting snail mailed to me? Been through the web site and could not find the box to check off.

 

[Scout333]

Don't blame the Germans about showing underwear, they are ordering everyone trading in their country to keep their pants on. :toung:

It is rather a silly name for a financial transaction.

Would that be their sticky pants?

 

[KevinD]

Speaking of transactions, how can I stop my twice monthly IFT statements from getting snail mailed to me? Been through the web site and could not find the box to check off.

Just enter an email address in the space provided when you make an IFT.

Once the transfer is processed, you will be mailed a confirmation. If you would prefer to receive the confirmation via e-mail, please enter your e-mail address below. (Note: E-mail confirmations are formatted as HTML documents, so make sure that your e-mail application (Outlook, Eudora, GroupWise, etc.) is configured to display HTML.) Your e-mail address will not be retained for future transactions.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Thanks Kevin

 

[JimmyJoe]

I was using my old office e-mail address in the TSP web site. Guess the boys and girls at the old office discontinued my e-mail address 3 months after I retired. TSP must have reverted to a snail mail system once the old e-mail was unresponsive. So I e-mailed the TSP folks my new e-mail address. Looks like it'll woik. Trying to go green ya know. No paper=that much less for the old man to sign. Cheech and Chong.:laugh:

 

[JimmyJoe]

I think people need to consider moving some money to the G fund. You don't have to move all of it, just 20% or a little more, possibly daily. That's my advice.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I'm playing it a little. Staying in 10%. Today's market is showing signs of life. It's still going to be a see saw summer. I might go into stocks 30% in June.

 

[JimmyJoe]

fuggedaboudeet

 

[JimmyJoe]

How bout that good ol c fund.:cheesy: T'is not the bottom however.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Rather interesting from CNBC:

2) Buy on Friday's close, sell on Monday's close, THEN go away? I ran into an old friend, technician Frank Gretz of Wellington Shields, in front of the NYSE this morning. We talked technicals, and in the middle of the discussion he noted that Monday's have seen an amazing outperformance this year. He's right; here are the cumulative point gains for the Dow Industrials for each trading day of the year so far:
- Monday up 1,076
- Tuesday up 12
- Wednesday up 114
- Thursday down 841
- Friday down 721

So I'm likely to go totally to G on Wed before noon, looking at the seasonality sentimental survey bar chart and the above. Unless it falls like a rock on Monday or Tuesday. Does anybody really like the Stones "Exile on Main Street"? I'm 58 and was right there to 'get it'. 40 years later I still don't get that album. They say you could listen to it several times and like it. Well, I otherwise generally like the Stones. I like Mick Taylor's music on 'Sticky Fingers'. No, not sticky pants. Taylor really gave the Stones a much needed boost at that time. 'Moonlight Mile' is a good song.

 

[JimmyJoe]

De de de de de Dass all folks. When people start talking horoscopes I pull the plug. Maybe I'll catch tomorrow's bounce on the 10% I have left in till tomorrow's closing bell. This stock market reminds me of the time I was assigned to Ft.Benning, in Columbus, GA. 1973. The summer air was thick with humidity and the heat was just,...,jus..., hot. Slow moving in Ga, and impossibly, upwardly slogging, slow moving stocks, until you're so crapped out that you keel over, like when the stock market experiences one of its hot flashes. Gone to 100% G. :toung:

 

[JimmyJoe]

I noted that 8 out of 10 recent ift's moved into stocks so I wanted to find out some end of the month stats. Here is my find on the net;
Norm Fosback used to publish a seasonal trading strategy in his newsletter, Market Logic, with good results. That strategy was invested in S&P 500 futures only during the two days before a market holiday, the last two trading days of each month, and the first four trading days of the next month (the “pre-holiday” and “month-end” seasonals). Nelson notes that the annualized return isolated only to those days works out to about 34% since 1928. Including the days when the strategy was out of the market, presumably earning the T-bill yield, the annualized gain from 1952 through 2001 would have been 13.6% before transaction costs, compared with 12.8% for a buy-and-hold. That's not a bad comparison given that it assumes being invested only one-third of the time.
So I'll leave 4% in the market for a few days. Thanks for your ift info folks.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Ju suis hereaux. I'm in 4% and gonna crank manyana, if it goes up. Hadn't lost 5% of my $ during the last week so that make me hereaux. Next Tuesday is coming up.:nuts: Maybe I'll make some changes then.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Well folks. It looks like we need to go more to the G fund. If you aren't in the G fund now, consider moving 30% to 40 % or more into it. Unless you want to take your present CSI% into next month. Doing that will save you an IFT if the market should go up during the next week. I don't think it will though. Although I have written yesterday that seasonally it should go up at the end of the month and around the holiday, there presently, is a market psychology that is likely to take it down. That is; The Dow hit a benchmark today at below 10,000. When it hits a benchmark, the market usually likes to go further, just for good measure. In this case, when it goes down further, it is likely to take the 1067 S&P below 1,000. The S&P will then go down another 50 points in the days following. Just like dominoes. I've heard that the S&P will be around 950 next month. June is not a good month for the market by the way. So to my FERS folks, consider what I've written. You have much more to loose than the CSR folks on this thread. I could be wrong but, man, it is shaky out there.

 

[JimmyJoe]

From two days ago.

I noted that 8 out of 10 recent ift's moved into stocks so I wanted to find out some end of the month stats. Here is my find on the net;
Norm Fosback used to publish a seasonal trading strategy in his newsletter, Market Logic, with good results. That strategy was invested in S&P 500 futures only during the two days before a market holiday, the last two trading days of each month, and the first four trading days of the next month (the “pre-holiday” and “month-end” seasonals). Nelson notes that the annualized return isolated only to those days works out to about 34% since 1928. Including the days when the strategy was out of the market, presumably earning the T-bill yield, the annualized gain from 1952 through 2001 would have been 13.6% before transaction costs, compared with 12.8% for a buy-and-hold. That's not a bad comparison given that it assumes being invested only one-third of the time.
So I'll leave 4% in the market for a few days. Thanks for your ift info folks.

I'm all out now but got a little coin today. I'm at my stops now. Waiting for June. Good luck folks. Hope this becomes a bull market. We'll see.