Fedgolfer's Account Talk

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AAPL crushed with 1.82 per share vs the 1.42 estimate... not sure what the whisper was but it probably beat that too... should bode well for the QQQQs and DWCPF tomorrow.
 
2Easy and ATCJeff have consistently been some of the BEST sellers of short and medium term tops over the past several years. There have been countless times where I have held on too long when they have taken their quick profits.

On a sidenote and mental note to myself, had I been astute enough to get out at 2Easy's last exit... if i had enough IFTs I'd be buying in today or tomorrow... so looking at QQQQs and $tran, it appears we are on the big-daddy 8'month support line. I'd buy here with a stop a couple % below. But I'm already 100% in so that's a hold. Watching closely to see if those support lines hold on QQQQs/$TRAN.

re: some bullish technicals, CMF is crossing the zero line to the upside on QQQQ's & IYT/$TRAN. Tran seems to have bounced off the mid-bollinger/20 dma.
 
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let's keep our fingers crossed and hope Meredith Whitney keeps her pie-hole shut this afternoon and doesn't downgrade JP Morgan to sell :)
 
fedgolfer said:
let's keep our fingers crossed and hope Meredith Whitney keeps her pie-hole shut this afternoon and doesn't downgrade JP Morgan to sell :)
Click to expand...

Ha ha, I told my wife to shut her pie-hole once and it didn't work... :cheesy:
 
$tran looking like it wants to breakdown bigtime this AM... it that doesn't find support soon, we'll definitely see some short-term downside. $ could change all that in the next hour or so if it catches a bid.
 
$tran is up against the bearish resistance trendline going back a couple years. QQQQs have already broken that line to the upside and revisted it and found support. I'm leaning to thinking that one leader is leading the other and the $tran has to work itself out but will eventually bust on through to the northside of that line... earnings in sum has basically said that too and it appears now is the market working out its emotions to let the bull run continue.
 
IYT & QQQQs, are on their 8 month support measured bull trendline dating back to March. If this trend hold, now is a good time to buy with stop below. I just bought some QLD.

Dollar may be at a short term high after just piercing the 50-day. Come on bulls... time to grap those rocky mountain oysters :)

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d1
 
fedgolfer said:
if this pattern breaks on the $tran etf (iyt) and the QQQQs... i'm going to bail but I'm in to win.
Click to expand...

There was a couple of volume spikes around SPX 1061 this morning which may signal a bottom in this current decline. I'm hoping anyway.
 
the $ is seems to be a much more accurate indicator than $tran or QQQQs since those have been contradicting each other for much of this top and then downturn. UDN is in a perfectly symetrical 3 month measured bull move coming out of a cup and handle (jun thru aug). At yesterday's close the $ per the UDN perfectly hit that support point. I think the SPX,$tran, qqqq will keep having small breakdown and breakouts until they are in symetrical measured bull moves. Holding until the double rail support line in UDN is broken... it looks like a much more "leading indicator" than $tran.
 
Nice... seeing some historically strong TSP buyers stepping in here after the turn on the $.

I can hear the bear arguements the next couple of weeks already... H&s on the S&P then double top on the s&p... why fight the fed and the g20? Its really playing out at the expense of the retail trader and doom and gloomers.
 
still standing by and thinking the jury is still out on the post GDP reversal.... more econ indicators & rpts will come out and surprise on the upside. the falling wedge in $tran was reversed on the GDP rpt and then revisted that trendline that it broke... just the opposite of kissing a channel goodbye in a rising wedge. UDN is still in a measure bull move. The bull is just bucking, but it is still a bull. Central banks want a low dollar despite what Geithner and BHO say, all the powers that be want the dollar to go lower until real growth and real growth alone will keep the indices afloat... we still have to be a couple quarters out from that. This is all stimulus at work. It ain't pretty but it's working.

11:25 EST and the IYT (tran ETF) is showing a good chance of breakout of the 8 day measured bear channel arguement, it was really a falling wedge that broke to the upside and just re-tested... classic bear trap. the next 30 min candlestick if its above that trendline will get the short-term traders hopping back in.
 
fedgolfer said:
still standing by and thinking the jury is still out on the post GDP reversal.... more econ indicators & rpts will come out and surprise on the upside. the falling wedge in $tran was reversed on the GDP rpt and then revisted that trendline that it broke... just the opposite of kissing a channel goodbye in a rising wedge. UDN is still in a measure bull move. The bull is just bucking, but it is still a bull. Central banks want a low dollar despite what Geithner and BHO say, all the powers that be want the dollar to go lower until real growth and real growth alone will keep the indices afloat... we still have to be a couple quarters out from that. This is all stimulus at work. It ain't pretty but it's working.
Click to expand...

Yea but it's making me nervous.:(
 
mayday said:
Yea but it's making me nervous.:(
Click to expand...

the volume spikes are adding to my opinion that this was big boys scaring out the retail investors, and now they're accumulating for the next run. Sentiment on this board seems to indicate most people getting scared out... I know I had my finger on the sell button and was almost scared out. But this dollar bet is proving to be a better inidicator than the $tran or QQQQs. Wish I trusted it 100% earlier.
 
fedgolfer said:
... i think the dollar will test its multi year low, and get near 72

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax

Via the UDN (bearish dollar ETF) on the short/med term it appears to be in a measure bull move. Been pretty accurate calling the short term market tops and bottoms if you draw trendlines and put up the bollingers.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UDN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32444979646

SPX hit the lower bollinger in the daily and found support too.
Click to expand...

I just made my first IFT of the month 100%I fund
 
fedgolfer said:
... i think the dollar will test its multi year low, and get near 72

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax

Via the UDN (bearish dollar ETF) on the short/med term it appears to be in a measure bull move. Been pretty accurate calling the short term market tops and bottoms if you draw trendlines and put up the bollingers.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UDN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32444979646

SPX hit the lower bollinger in the daily and found support too.
Click to expand...

This is going to be interesting watching to see if your interpretation of the market plays out.

With the amount of distibution we've seen, I'd think da boyz would want a better entry point than 60 or so SPX points.
 
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